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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #17,761
  • Jul 30, 2010 5:35pm Jul 30, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting paul1
Thankyou for your reply,I really wanted to gauge what more experienced traders use as a rule of thumb.Using this method.
e.g 1) risk =100% position loss is equal to 2% of margin...
I would recommend you halve your risk to 1% of your account per trade. The whole of your position when it reaches the point of max pain you are willing to take should only be 1% for now. It gives you more room to learn from mistakes rather than fretting over a drawdown. If your account is $10000, then max loss on a trade shouldn't be more than $100.
  • #17,762
  • Jul 30, 2010 5:43pm Jul 30, 2010 5:43pm
Quoting paul1
Thanks for your reply dont take me the wrong way but people seem to reply but not answer. I have studied the whole post and its taken along time.Especially when a lot is mostly social conversation between members.I did study so maybe i could take part. feel free to reply but only if you are able to give answers below is a very specific answer to a persons question. But this says use stop loss. Just asking simply how do we control risk. If the answer is we dont. Just say that ty.
Iam really just trying to learn this method. I have my interpretation...
Paul,

I will try to ans with a HOPE you read initial 200 pages ... in any system i know of FOREX there is two things...btw this is a method....

1. How much you make on a trade or a day
2. How much can you loose on trade or a day.

Now lets come to point 1.
How much you make on a trade or a day ... we all have different numbers here...some i know make 10% day some like me make 1% in some great days.

question is how we achieve it if you read the pages you know we have scout we refer as 1x then we try to follow fibs

1,1,2,3

now lets say we have $1000 in account my scout (5 cents/pip ) = 500 troops so one pip movement is rough is my scout


now if u leave scout alone it has to go against 400 pips to hit you 2% loss( which i come later).....


but we put more troops in between and here is all the different personallity and way we act comes...i give an example

you go short on UJ at 88.00 with one troop and market goees against u

2% loss

1. 88.00 92.00

2 you send another troop( 500 troops) at 89.00 now your cost average is 88.50 but your 2% loss is 90.50

3. you send 2 x(1000 tropps) scout at 89.50 your average money is 89.00 now...but your 2% bail out is 90.00

now what we do is we able send some resuce as we call and put them ihn market e.g. i send 2x scout at 89.50 and market went to 89.00 i am not feeling good i close the position .. i book the profit and take some money out to get foriegn extera cushion....so now we have extra cusion to handle losses...


now lets say market comes back to 89.50 i send 2x scout and the market then goes your direction and closes at 88.20 and you close all the position with profit....now we made some money for today...


this way in some days we see we have some idea how much money we make in daily basis ...lets say we make 1% a day...

so for us the day the rescue operation including HITS our 3 times the daily earcning(3% here) we close all the position.... go out drink beer...flirt with some girls and enjoy life and start trading again....

Everyone here does that... in crux...but everyone has there versions......

and now my turn to say to u.... this all information is explained in much better with much better excel in initial 200 pages hence the question came did u read 200 pages( which btw i am rereading again this weekend)....and i am sure u must have now 1000 more questions in ur head after reading my reply...


So i hope i gave u some idea and u read the inital thread relaxly....as here FTI aka chief trains for Marathon not for sprint....


V

PS: i am out for weekend with no internet access so i will not be able to ans till sunday night.... i am going to a meditation called vipassana which i highly recomend to anyone here...
  • #17,763
  • Jul 30, 2010 8:37pm Jul 30, 2010 8:37pm
Quoting Gro
Hi FTI


I noticed earlier that some "invisible" to look at this thread a long time.
Gro, you will notice at the bottom of the page it will list the number of viewers, and "(members)" Members will be either "listed by name" or "invisible", depending on their own account options. There is always more viewers than members because you don't have to be a member or even log in to read this thread........ the only thread area that blocks non-members is the "members lounge" which was where the TAF lounge is located, and the reason why Mamood started it there, it was actually moved into the trading discussion area and then replaced back in the members lounge by Forex Factory upon Mamood asking.

At least there transient viewers cannot read the posts, but FF I'm sure doesn't like it as this thread is one of the more widely read.

fwiw,
  • #17,764
  • Edited 1:59am Jul 31, 2010 1:37am | Edited 1:59am
Quoting paul1
Thanks for your reply dont take me the wrong way but people seem to reply but not answer. I have studied the whole post and its taken along time.Especially when a lot is mostly social conversation between members.I did study so maybe i could take part. feel free to reply but only if you are able to give answers below is a very specific answer to a persons question. But this says use stop loss. Just asking simply how do we control risk. If the answer is we dont. Just say that ty.
Iam really just trying to learn this method. I have my interpretation...
Hi paul1,
The issues you brought up are real.
however you risk manage your risk. If volatility went thru the roof and moved from 15-10% to 30 or higher. I don't care what your risk parameters are . Your account will still be killed. That is, unless you were on the right impulse direction.
Hence the answer to your question is "the dance". Dance wrong and it doesn't matter what risk management you use. Splash. (So you have to study some more, as you missed the parts about dancing the market. For beginners to the dance.There is a full discription of my outlook posted by Leighsww, where i hand held her to trade as a beginner.Althought that is only elementary of my methodology. TThe rules of engagement there will protect the trader in not getting into a splash situatuion.) As you develope your ability to dance then you start dropping the crutches that were there to train your trading ability.)

So risk parameters is only a risk guide to control proper mindset for trading.

Take example the stress test that was conducted recently on euro banks.
if the market moved 30% volatility variance and went 3 standard variations from the mean. Then 2 possibilities. One is all the banks will survive. if they was in the money on the direction of the surge. The other is that all those that failed the test would be insolvent. And at extreme 3rd SD, at least half the banks will fail to insolvency.

So what you are asking is only risk control. And by that itself will not make you profitable. Not as traders.

@ ALL

I started the thread to give this to all. And that is why it sits in the public. But this opens me to attacks by vested interest. ( there had been even people here that had suggested that certain people can get to learn what i do by getting into my pants. What a sick thought! And this is done in the privacy of ...........So the answer to those people is NO, you will not get more even if you got into my pants....even the likes of "Rose Chan" will fail. Its already all here. The only way is to study what i had given , thinking and practising.) Moving to a closed community like had been suggested does bad for me. To move to closed forums and private cyber rooms will limit this from those that truely needs the help and from those who diligently are studying to developing themselves. Howerver, I need think more, on the security detail problems.

regards
  • #17,765
  • Edited 2:20am Jul 31, 2010 2:02am | Edited 2:20am
Quoting textor
Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCLxso5XDN4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ww4qCBhypxo
Ahhhhh, 2 great violins.

this my favourites.
Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #17,766
  • Jul 31, 2010 2:25am Jul 31, 2010 2:25am
Quoting fti
I started the thread to give this to all. And that is why it sits in the public.....The only way is to study what i had given , thinking and practising.)
regards

In your estimation, what are the odds of a trader, putting into practice (understanding/interpretation and implementation of the concepts in this thread without any outside guidance or handholding?

The more experience the individual has the easier it is to identify with your explanations and terms given in the thread, but that experience is usually a hinderence by your own admission. I would imagine that those in your past that you taught at the banks started with the basics and were hand taught by you and your seniors and what was the attrition rate of those hand held?... how many made it? There is no comparison between the learning curve under those circumstances and what one could gather from just reading and practicing the MO of the thread.

It's a great tool to help show the way, but that tool has sharp edges, which often critically exposes a traders weakness. Specially when there's no senior to take over the book in times of trouble.

fwiw,

regards
  • #17,767
  • Jul 31, 2010 3:17am Jul 31, 2010 3:17am
Thankyou very much for your replies and detailed explanations.
And i totally agree with auxesis.
I myself have trained my employees in my building company,and whilst giving clear instruction for specific tasks not many could perform the task without some corrections guidance from me in the beginning.
One thing i did notice.
written methology , was not enough,visual back up eg. graphs, drawing helped vastly. videos showing the method in practise was very helpful.
But as one person told me and i will never forget.You cannot buy or learn experience.
In this business fti your experience is priceless to a the vast majority here
please do not underestimate the value of your guidance in this thread.
people interpret your teaching in there own way no matter how simple,we apply our interpretations report back to our mentor.And as in every learning process the experienced and qualified assess the trainees efforts and correct any points that may have been misunderstood.
I have a lot of respect for people such as yourself who give purely for the benefit of people who are willing to work hard.
Sometimes makes me laugh cause most people that say they are very successful and can make millions.always want to add to there millions with a few more bucks from people.For them to part with any knowledge they may have.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #17,768
  • Jul 31, 2010 3:47am Jul 31, 2010 3:47am
Quoting paul1
Thankyou very much for your replies and detailed explanations.
And i totally agree with auxesis.
I myself have trained my employees in my building company,and whilst giving clear instruction for specific tasks not many could perform the task without some corrections guidance from me in the beginning.
One thing i did notice.
written methology , was not enough,visual back up eg. graphs, drawing helped vastly. videos showing the method in practise was very helpful.
But as one person told me and i will never forget.You cannot buy or learn experience.
In...
well said guys.

regards,
dongsky
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #17,769
  • Jul 31, 2010 4:28am Jul 31, 2010 4:28am
Quoting fti
@ ALL

I started the thread to give this to all. And that is why it sits in the public. But this opens me to attacks by vested interest. ( there had been even people here that had suggested that certain people can get to learn what i do by getting into my pants. What a sick thought! And this is done in the privacy of ...........So the answer to those people is NO, you will not get more even if you got into my pants....even the likes of "Rose Chan" will fail. Its already all here. The only way is to study what i had given , thinking and practising.)...
It is really your call fti, do what's logical to you...remember you don't owe anyone here but it's the other way around. To those who join the privy are lucky to be handheld and those who are not will say unfair...but as for me, I'm just glad I found the thread (3 years later)...better late than never right? I got 900+ pages to burn my mind with anyways and having not to worry about stop losses being hit every trade is a gift enough(thanks!)... now...if only I could read the thread much faster without killing my patients -_-!
  • #17,770
  • Edited 5:29am Jul 31, 2010 4:32am | Edited 5:29am
Ai ya, like this. Only you understand the lyrics.

Inserted Video


在雨中　我送過你　在夜裡　我吻過你
在春天　我擁有你　在冬季　我離開你

有相聚　也有分離　人生本　是一齣戲
有歡笑　也有哭泣　不知誰能　誰能躲的過去

你說人生艷麗　我沒有異議　
你說人生憂鬱　我不言語

只有默默的承受這一切　
承受數不盡的春來冬去

will translate this later.
  • #17,771
  • Jul 31, 2010 4:50am Jul 31, 2010 4:50am
Hey fti thanks for great thread, it definitely cleared some doubts about charts I had left and I spend some time reading about the market in depth too, it amazes me how I managed to trade not guessing what will happen but just acting, I'm working now on my rescues.

The thing that I can't figure out myself is, how the dealer is executing his orders; let's say he offers client or sees oppurtunity he wants to buy/sell on 10.50 level and price is currently on 10.70. He gets his ass to work and now what - what happen when the market reaches 10.50 - the order is filled there and now what, what happens to his client's money. And why does it take some time to reach the level and it doesn't happen instantaneously.

I hope you will find some time to clear my doubts or even better pass me some read so you don't hape to type because there are not many people out there who know how this actually works or are willing to share their knowledge.
  • #17,772
  • Jul 31, 2010 4:51am Jul 31, 2010 4:51am
Quoting fti
Ai ya, like this. Only you understand the lyrics.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sp4SYIkmyqo

在雨中　我送過你　在夜裡　我吻過你
在春天　我擁有你　在冬季　我離開你

有相聚　也有分離　人生本　是一齣戲
有歡笑　也有哭泣　不知誰能　誰能躲的過去...

Hi fti,

I googled for its translation and this is what i get...

"I sent off in the rain at night I kissed you you
In the spring I have you in the winter I leave you

Have gathered there is a separation of the drama of life
There is also laughter cry who do not know who can hide in the past

You say that life is beautiful and I have no objection
You say words I do not life depression

All this only suffer in silence
Endure countless winter to spring "


though broken but at least i have rough idea what it's all about ... melody is nice though

regards,
dongsky
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #17,773
  • Jul 31, 2010 6:55am Jul 31, 2010 6:55am
Quoting fti
Ai ya, like this. Only you understand the lyrics.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sp4SYIkmyqo

在雨中　我送過你　在夜裡　我吻過你
在春天　我擁有你　在冬季　我離開你

有相聚　也有分離　人生本　是一齣戲
有歡笑　也有哭泣　不知誰能　誰能躲的過去

你說人生艷麗　我沒有異議　
你說人生憂鬱　我不言語

只有默默的承受這一切　
承受數不盡的春來冬去

will...
"Life is like water, once upstairs and once again below ..."
  • #17,774
  • Jul 31, 2010 7:56am Jul 31, 2010 7:56am
Quoting fti
@ ALL
I started the thread to give this to all...
i am 1 of those willing to learn & appreciate your time & guidance in this journey...

i do not know what the extent of the problem is, but i fully support whatever u decide to do, Sir.

regards
  • #17,775
  • Jul 31, 2010 8:22am Jul 31, 2010 8:22am
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  • #17,776
  • Jul 31, 2010 9:44am Jul 31, 2010 9:44am
Quoting auxesis
Gro, you will notice at the bottom of the page it will list the number of viewers, and "(members)"...
Hi auxesis

Thanks for the explain, but I thought more frequent visits to "invisible".That's all.I did not realize one thing, We are monitored at every step, monitoring camera, mobile phone, computer, etc.My worries are actually funny, while I realize the whole modus operandi of what teaching FTI.They can watch me but how they can catch me?
I've probably exhausted = irritable and edgy.Reason is, I spent a long time studying Gann and exhausted.My performance has fallen by at least half.I think it is the result of absorption of new knowledge,
or pure and clear FTI words:
(too much analysis, not enough strategic following).
( too much comfirmation required before action or corrective action.)
( too much intelligence, lack of confidence)

regards

PS nice video
  • #17,777
  • Edited 10:59am Jul 31, 2010 10:20am | Edited 10:59am
Inserted Video


Chinese is a language like most, inaccurate.
In the olden days, takes heaps just to explain 1 calligarph.
Words always have difficulty to be accurate of the interpretation.
Because much context also eludes.
Generally this the meaning of the song.
It's about life, you can relate it to trading.

the title is "walking in the rain",


在雨中　我送過你　
In the midst of rain (storm), You had deliverance
在夜裡　我吻過你
In darkness, you was given kiss of light.
在春天　我擁有你
In spring, I am given abundance.
在冬季　我離開你
In winter, I depart due to lack

有相聚　也有分離　
There will be unity and there will be separation.
人生本　是一齣戲
The essence of life, It is a stage.
有歡笑　也有哭泣　
Where there is laughter & happiness, there will exist sorrow and angst.
不知誰能　誰能躲的過去
Not know any, who can avoid these.

Chorus
你說人生艷麗　我沒有異議　
If you say that life is beautiful, I agree.
你說人生憂鬱　我不言語
If you say that life is depressing, i concur in silence.
只有默默的承受這一切　
Only in silence can you find the strength to bear all she brings.
承受數不盡的春來冬去
The infinite comfort of springs and pains in winter that she will bring.

end

This is not a word for word interpretation but with context of my perspective.
Word for word translation totally is meaningless.
But to understand, I need to write hundreds of pages to explain.
It has very deep and profound meanings, like poems

regards
  • #17,778
  • Edited 11:49am Jul 31, 2010 11:08am | Edited 11:49am
"Bridge over the Past"

Inserted Video

from the musical "Joan of Arc"
  • #17,779
  • Jul 31, 2010 2:00pm Jul 31, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting Gro
Hi auxesis

Thanks for the explain, but I thought more frequent visits to "invisible".That's all.I did not realize one thing, We are monitored at every step, monitoring camera, mobile phone, computer, etc.My worries are actually funny, while I realize the whole modus operandi of what teaching FTI.They can watch me but how they can catch me?
I've probably exhausted = irritable and edgy.Reason is, I spent a long time studying Gann and exhausted.My performance has fallen by at least half.I think it is the result of absorption...
Gro,

Like most things, too much is never good. The problem I have (personal scorpion) with Gann and other types of analysis, is trying to be "too myopic" or "perfect" in the chart's interpretation. Given the nature and structural difference of currencies to that of other tradable markets, perfect execution is by chance imho. Now that's not to say that an edge can not be gained by understanding the cycle or time, but PA must confirm.......... so it's paradoxical at times, like the chicken and egg... The time can be right but without PA confirmation what good is it? And vice-versa if PA shows reversal out of sync, do you believe it?

The true edge is gained by not drawing the proverbial line in the sand, or leaving yourself without an escape or means to recover, and needed the ability to understand when you are on the right side of the market and capitalize instead of faltering with success... like the lessons on water, being able to adapt shape, but understanding the power of destruction contained.

In the first post, "market structure" X's & O's of trading is a key ingredient, but just as important is capitalization, having the means and book to properly trade it, then the biggie "YOU" which can completely override and ruin the best analysis and deepest pockets if not careful. fwiw..............

regards,
  • #17,780
  • Edited 2:53pm Jul 31, 2010 2:36pm | Edited 2:53pm
Quoting auxesis
Gro,

Like most things, too much is never good. The problem I have (personal scorpion) with Gann and other types of analysis, is trying to be "too myopic" or "perfect" in the chart's interpretation....
Hi auxesis

maybe you will understand.I like Mendeljev Table of the Elements and Music of the spheres ... we can wait for a long distance from the Sun, planet larger than the Jupiter???

Regards
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