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Silent Service Method

  • #10,101
  • Jul 29, 2010 10:49am Jul 29, 2010 10:49am
^ I wish I had your patience!!
  • #10,102
  • Jul 29, 2010 10:50am Jul 29, 2010 10:50am
Of course you can make charts tell you anything you want to hear. Retest of the trendline and 38.2 fib level? Maybe we should sell now? lol
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Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,103
  • Jul 29, 2010 11:15am Jul 29, 2010 11:15am
Quoting Arfer Daily
I like trendlines on the weekly. I can only really see one valid downwards trendline on this chart at the moment and there are only two horizontal resistance levels between here and 1.45.

What makes everyone so bearish the euro/usd anyway? Is the usd really in that much better shape? I would agree that the euro looks in a bad way at the moment but I don't think we should let that blind us to the facts regarding the usd.

It's worth mentioning this is pure speculation and not a forecast. It's a best guess by looking at this chart. I am trying...

I believe we are going to have to test 1.35 before anything gets settled. Also, I believe that the low volume of summer is playing into this as well.

September will be where we see a move I believe. This summer has been crap to be honest. YAWN.
  • #10,104
  • Jul 29, 2010 11:20am Jul 29, 2010 11:20am
Somewhere down here, I am watching, waiting. There will be a weekly or even monthly signal to buy this pair. The BoJ can't be happy at this time, and it must be painful to watch this for them.
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  • #10,105
  • Jul 29, 2010 11:31am Jul 29, 2010 11:31am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Of course you can make charts tell you anything you want to hear. Retest of the trendline and 38.2 fib level? Maybe we should sell now? lol

Another reason I don't like trend lines - lol.
  • #10,106
  • Jul 29, 2010 11:34am Jul 29, 2010 11:34am
Quoting Arfer Daily
I like trendlines on the weekly. I can only really see one valid downwards trendline on this chart at the moment and there are only two horizontal resistance levels between here and 1.45.

What makes everyone so bearish the euro/usd anyway? Is the usd really in that much better shape? I would agree that the euro looks in a bad way at the moment but I don't think we should let that blind us to the facts regarding the usd.

It's worth mentioning this is pure speculation and not a forecast. It's a best guess by looking at this...
Thats exactly why I'm short USDCHF .
  • #10,107
  • Jul 29, 2010 12:19pm Jul 29, 2010 12:19pm
Blog updated.
  • #10,108
  • Jul 29, 2010 12:43pm Jul 29, 2010 12:43pm
Quoting clockwork71
Somewhere down here, I am watching, waiting. There will be a weekly or even monthly signal to buy this pair. The BoJ can't be happy at this time, and it must be painful to watch this for them.
CW, I agree entirely.

I have my eye on a retest of the 84 low to be honest, the Japanese historically do not organize themselves until the proverbial has already hit the fan and then it's knee jerk. However, it's widely acknowledged that they will have to implement further stimulus measures in conjunction with selling the jpy in order to stop the market doing what they did to the SNB when they tried to deflate the chf simply by selling it. When they do more QE, the jpy crosses will take to the skies. Almost worth a sleeping buy order around 91-92 region to catch their move

I've been short on and off since 90 area and I think we will need to see the s&p and dxy fall a bit to enable this which will likely occur in my opinion in mid august in time for the intelligent people to come back from summer break.

Just my opinion.

4x.
  • #10,109
  • Jul 29, 2010 12:50pm Jul 29, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting InfinitySL
As an addition/amplification of 4xAddict's post from a few days ago, i thought I would link to another blog I was reading that certainly agrees with many of the points he made.
Good article mate, it certainly rings true.

A friend bought a town house in a residential estate 30 mins from the shanghai cbd in 2004/5 off the plan for us450k (approximately 3M CNY).

It was valued last Oct at 22-23M CNY and this May at nearly 30M (approximately 4.5M USD)

Sure he's happy but cannot find a buyer now to offload it.

If that doesn't spell bubble I am not sure what does.
  • #10,110
  • Jul 29, 2010 12:54pm Jul 29, 2010 12:54pm
Mate, Dukascopy are awesome but in my experience don't offer enough pairs compared with fxpro, alpari etc.
That said I NEVER had an order bounce with dukascopy and their spreads and execution speeds are amazing!

When they offer more pairs I'll be back in a heartbeat. Also their iPhone software is the best mobile platform by miles IMO of course

Quoting clockwork71
For full disclosure:

I have decided to segregate my forex from my stock account. The biggest issue with Interactive Brokers for Forex has always been granularity. (In other words, not being able to get the exact amount of leverage I want all the time...since you must trade in $25,000 lots or above.)

Also, some of you have noticed that I have ads for Dukascopy/AVA FX on my blog, and soon to be at the front page of my site as well. Being a IB for these firms kinda dictates that it makes sense for me to use them.

They both have MT4...
  • #10,111
  • Jul 29, 2010 1:21pm Jul 29, 2010 1:21pm
Quoting clockwork71
For full disclosure:

I have decided to segregate my forex from my stock account. The biggest issue with Interactive Brokers for Forex has always been granularity. (In other words, not being able to get the exact amount of leverage I want all the time...since you must trade in $25,000 lots or above.)

Also, some of you have noticed that I have ads for Dukascopy/AVA FX on my blog, and soon to be at the front page of my site as well. Being a IB for these firms kinda dictates that it makes sense for me to use them.

They both have MT4 charts,...
The problem with Dukascopy, and it is a big problem, is that they close and open your positions at the end of the day, everyday; this is in addition to the swap, other than that they are good.
Regards
  • #10,112
  • Jul 29, 2010 1:47pm Jul 29, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting howard
The problem with Dukascopy, and it is a big problem, is that they close and open your positions at the end of the day, everyday; this is in addition to the swap, other than that they are good.
I had GFT as a broker many moons ago, and they did the same thing. In the end, it makes no difference. You pay the carry, or receive it....and then are in essence at the same point. Of course, I like them for all the other reasons as well. Like knowing who your pool of counter parties are, etc.....since they are a true ECN. Something most brokers aren't.

Of course, if you are used to bucket shops, ECNs take a minute getting used to due to orders, having to match up, etc. If you trade stocks in real time, it's the same idea.
  • #10,113
  • Jul 29, 2010 1:52pm Jul 29, 2010 1:52pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Mate, Dukascopy are awesome but in my experience don't offer enough pairs compared with fxpro, alpari etc.
That said I NEVER had an order bounce with dukascopy and their spreads and execution speeds are amazing!

When they offer more pairs I'll be back in a heartbeat. Also their iPhone software is the best mobile platform by miles IMO of course
I don't have an iPhone so I will never know. Unless of course I buy one....hmmm.....

Presently they have 32 pairs, which for me is good. Although nobody can touch GFT for the amount of pairs. (170?)
  • #10,114
  • Jul 29, 2010 1:54pm Jul 29, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting 4xAddict
CW, I agree entirely.

I have my eye on a retest of the 84 low to be honest, the Japanese historically do not organize themselves until the proverbial has already hit the fan and then it's knee jerk. However, it's widely acknowledged that they will have to implement further stimulus measures in conjunction with selling the jpy...
The USD/JPY could be a generational trade in the sense that it might start the carry trade again. (Although it should be said it won't be because of the USD itself.....more like the AUD NZD EUR etc, it will be JPY weakness.) I firmly believe it's a matter of time....I am waiting. I wouldn't expect the big move until we get to about the last week of August or even start of September.

But, I could be full of shit too. That's always possible. lol
  • #10,115
  • Jul 29, 2010 2:28pm Jul 29, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting clockwork71
I had GFT as a broker many moons ago, and they did the same thing. In the end, it makes no difference. You pay the carry, or receive it....and then are in essence at the same point. Of course, I like them for all the other reasons as well. Like knowing who your pool of counter parties are, etc.....since they are a true ECN. Something most brokers aren't.

Of course, if you are used to bucket shops, ECNs take a minute getting used to due to orders, having to match up, etc. If you trade stocks in real time, it's the same idea.
so e.g. if you placed a trade, and the trade moved 100 pips in your direction till the end of day, your pos gets closed and you new entry is 100 pips higher to your previous entry?


/something totally different: there was a music video some time ago, i dont remember the song, but in the video some housewife was cooking, and the video was build up like a receipt. any one remember this and can remember artist and title? sorry for posting here, but maybe someone here knows it
  • #10,116
  • Jul 29, 2010 2:53pm Jul 29, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting stewrigh
Another reason I don't like trend lines - lol.
Still don't like trendlines? I seem to remember I spotted this one just before Chris did. For me it just "feels" right for it to reach that bottom trendline and reverse. I'm not in the trade at the moment so I can afford to speculate on a hunch!
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Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,117
  • Jul 29, 2010 3:54pm Jul 29, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting tobias24
so e.g. if you placed a trade, and the trade moved 100 pips in your direction till the end of day, your pos gets closed and you new entry is 100 pips higher to your previous entry?


/something totally different: there was a music video some time ago, i dont remember the song, but in the video some housewife was cooking, and the video was build up like a receipt. any one remember this and can remember artist and title? sorry for posting here, but maybe someone here knows it
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...edit-debit.asp

A good explanation of rollover. Unless you want to deliver the face value of the currency, like a bank does....you need to do the rollover. If you didn't do this, you would have to cover your position. So if you bought 100k EUR/USD.....you would need to actually exchange your 100k of USD to get those EUR.

Here is the rub: All brokers do this. The difference is whether or not you actually see it. When you are trading with institutions, you have to play by their rules.

There are different ways they do this, but it's all the same in the end.

Think of it this way. You enter at 1.20, and at the end of the day the price is 1.21 - you are up 100 pips. You get those 100 pips credited to your account. The next day, your position is rolled over at 1.21, and then it falls 100 pips against you. What just happened?

You are at break even. You had 100 pips deposited into your account, and then then 100 is taken away the next day. So.....it's the same. The main difference is you see the operation upfront, unlike ibfx for example. Your basis cost is the exact same, and to be honest, to worry about this is kind of pointless, especially since it shows that you entered at the same price.

Unless you have an Islamic account, you must pay or receive the carry....unless of course you have 100,000 USD to give Citibank in two days.
  • #10,118
  • Jul 29, 2010 3:59pm Jul 29, 2010 3:59pm
Has anybody got any thoughts on TradeStation? I'm reading a book which mentions it and just took a look. It seems to me an expensive hobby, pay for the platform, pay for a strategy, no guaranteed return.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,119
  • Jul 29, 2010 4:09pm Jul 29, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Has anybody got any thoughts on TradeStation? I'm reading a book which mentions it and just took a look. It seems to me an expensive hobby, pay for the platform, pay for a strategy, no guaranteed return.
I've heard good things...but you're right, it's pricey.

It's "free" if you do the following every month:

 

  1. Futures: 10 round-turn futures or futures option contracts -or- 50 round-turn single stock
  2. Equities: 5,000 shares
  3. Equity & Index Options: 50 contracts
  4. Forex: 10 round-turn lots or 100 round-turn mini lots

They really just mean...If you give us lots of commissions we give you the platform "free", Otherwise it's $100/month!

That said, they have 27yrs of intra-day tick data on pretty much every stock/commodity out there, which is pretty impressive. ...And I've heard the language for coding strategies is easy to use. So if you strike gold and can automate the holy grail, I'm guessing it'd be worth it. For the casual trader, probably not...

  • #10,120
  • Jul 29, 2010 4:46pm Jul 29, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Has anybody got any thoughts on TradeStation? I'm reading a book which mentions it and just took a look. It seems to me an expensive hobby, pay for the platform, pay for a strategy, no guaranteed return.

You would be hard pressed to find much better than TradeStation. Of course, it comes down to whether or not the price is worth it. I don't think so to be honest......but I would love to have it myself.
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