GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

*forgot charts


Another 4hr pin formed in sucession...much stronger this time...Dollar index also has found support of lower channel support line around 81.50...Could be the combination we are after to get this retrace down to 5471/ 5315 area.

Im short of R1 at 5642 and 5620 .......small lot sizes with stop above 5700 incase this dont workout...dollar index could break below new found support which would give GU a push to hit 1.57 maybe higher before this retrace takes place. I expect us to pullback to 50% of the last pin before heading lower...

Stocky

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

i am short as well GU until 5450, stop at 5680

i still think that the dollar index will spike the 80.00 level which is next to the 62% retrace and also an important psychological number, before making a huge upmove (read 90+), so i still expect cable to spike the 5700-6000 before tanking. cheers

Hi Tomaz,

I agree we can still easily trade upto 1.57 level which was my initial trade plan however the high volume 4hr Pibars are pretty strong reversal signs and given we havent retraced since 5124 it quite probable we drop from here...I dont want to hold out for 1.57 and miss the move completely...Instead I have traded smaller lot sizes and widen the stop to cover the 1.57 scenario......

Good luck with that short

Stocky

When those in charge start hiding behind corporate waffle, you know something is hurtling towards the fan. Some here have probably gathered my appreciation for Christine Lagarde: I’ve previously stated that she possesses a particular chic and displays a somewhat beguiling panache. However, I think that she is probably better suited to managing something that does not involve arithmetic.

“We are seeing at the moment a reshuffling of the cards”. Said dear old Chrissy, before hitting us with, “The active dynamic of growth around the world will move to different centers of gravity, but there is nothing alarming about it.”

Nothing alarming? Chrissy, baby, you referred to India and China, two countries with, economically, impressive ‘apparent’ growth figures. However, it is well understood that both of these nations are starting to look inward for consumer spending as they realize that an era of stagflation is starting to descend upon their primary export markets. Namely; Europe and the US. Yes, India and China may be looking at G20 nation’ markets as areas of growth, but we won’t get much of a cut from this. Look at George Osborne – the master become the slave as he grovels for scraps inside India. Of course, a serious response would be yes, perhaps you may get into these markets, but it will be the same old story of capital flight out of Europe, and returns that benefit only big business.

You then hit us with Newtonian banality. What the ‘bleep’ are you going on about when referring to centers of gravity? Dear me, I think you inhabit the same temporal reality as Mervin King. In case you haven’t logged on, Chrissy, earlier in the year, I passed comment upon the spectre of stagflation visiting our shores: yesterday Mervin King formally presented the prospect. This is a far cry from his statements in June about rising inflation being ‘temporary’, due to: “unused UK production capacity delivering more goods than demand, thus acting as a brake on inflation”. Eh, come again?

Listen, both of you. Prices are going to go up in Europe and the UK, as businesses try to cover the losses incurred by the decline in people buying. Why, because everyone is petrified of losing their jobs, and so are putting every spare penny in the piggy bank in order to buy an umbrella big enough to hide under when the rebounds from the fan start coming their way.

Thought it a little odd the behaviour of Cable earlier as the USINDX was going down strongly, and am of the conviction that Cable suspected something, and hence didn't really shoot off anywhere.

Took the short, and still deciding of SL placement as I type.

Smikester, you've got me using MT4 - ew, hate the trade input window and setting of sl and tp method. Much better in tradestation - just drag and release.

Lots of great posts overnight. Thanks for the thoughts and discussion guys, I almost always miss the US session so it is nice to see what people are thinking during those hours when I wake up for Tokyo. Seems everyone is quite happy to sell small with big stops (I noticed wormboy mentioned something similar before I went to bed also).

My position on GBPUSD was stopped out (surprise) and I am down a bit on the week and month. DAX puts still in play but short of a miracle (or perhaps just less intervention into Germany equities by the govt?) I'm not banking on all of them expiring in profit by Aug20 as originally hoped.

There are some longer dated AUDUSD options in play but outside the scope of this thread so I will leave mention of them.

GM - just back ashore for a couple of days - some great analysis guys....

I always have a problem with candlesticks on any TF above the hourly and so looked at three of my brokers and saved the current charts which may be of interest.....

PS I also have the same APF as Hell 7 on another 4 hrly chart....

PSS I only use the vols on the IBFX chart - the GMT one, I put Hidden Gaps vol indy on the other charts as it has a useful "time left till candle close" feature...

And the last one.....

[quote=45Condor;3909187]Thought it a little odd the behaviour of Cable earlier as the USINDX was going down strongly, and am of the conviction that Cable suspected something, and hence didn't really shoot off anywhere.

Took the short, and still deciding of SL placement as I type.

Smikester, you've got me using MT4 - ew, hate the trade input window and setting of sl and tp method. Much better in tradestation - just drag and release.[/quote]


I agree and now use this One Clicker with my own preset stops and TPs for each pair that I trade.....you too might find it useful

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=236747

Yesterdays action formed a nice Head & Shoulders around the 5650 level on my 15 min chart.

This morning we had a Frankies Hour buy off the Days Open level of 5611 which ran up to the R1 at 5655, thus setting up a Lower High on the 15m / 5m charts for an initial short entry and I'll add IF I get confirmation by a break of and then the rolling over of my 30 ema first on 5m and then on 15m......

Thanks Islander, may give it a bash. I still like being able to grab a stop line in trade station and just drag and drop. But, will see how this other tool is for MT4.

Anyone notice that Cable in tandem with the fall on UC?USINDX? Strange behaviours indeed for month end book balancing - as Sinner was mentioning.

I've taken half off at the DP in case we get a bounce that I can sell into again.....its the last trading day of the month and I would be surprised to see a big sell off....

Closed short as UJ is hitting an extension, and UC seems to be bottoming out.

Hmm, maybe not bottoming just yet.

Sell order 1 pip under the earlier resistance at the MR1 level was hit, but so far cable's reluctant to follow € lower. so I've placed a stop at BE+5

Euro's now at yesterdays old resistance around 3030, also fib retrace of its last few hours rally.....short term timimg-wise a bounce wouldn't surprise me....

Well, the short from yesterday netted me just shy of 50 pips. Of course, end of month and Friday, was unsure if Cable was to turn. Indeed she did, and indeed, I did not take it, but allowed her to hit the SL - at least I got some pips.

Of course, she leaves us with the conundrum of divergence in play, and will she or won't she come back down next week.

Don't you just love this game?

Enjoy the weekend.

It may well be worth reading up on Mervin King's latest sentiment regarding stagflation. I'm never too sure of the innuendos from this man, but given his latest reversal in official comment and expectation, the BoE board's splitting sentiment, and the comments from members within the government as of late, I expect choppy waters come Thursday next week.

I'll throw one out there for rumination over the weekend - is Cable being marked up to the 1.60s in preparation for a fall come Tuesday on bad PMI data? Only for this drop to last until Thursday, whereby interest rates are increased, and Cable hits the 1.65s? Yeah, I know, nobody wants to see interest rate hikes, but we never know...

Will try to get some clean charts together over the weekend.

Me thinketh there's more than a little Scott in your musings....

Oh! what a tangled web we weave When first we practise to deceive!

I look forward to your charts, meantime, I'm donning my Poet's cap.... http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Sorry for so many. Just submitting my weekly fan and fib construct to work off... I get a few PMs during the week asking me how I do it. Always nice - but this is not necessarily how best to do it. Just a lone retailer trying to do battle.

UC - my substitute for USINDX - and clearly showing a probability of further decline. The Dollar does not seem to want to climb - be it through rejection of its safe haven status given the continuous bad news and underlying fundamentals, or the wish by Capitol Hill for it to become ever cheaper in order to satisfy political manipulation.