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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #241
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:28am Jul 27, 2010 7:28am
PA testing daily 200MA (5577)....very important area with the monthly candle close around the corner. Im waiting for a daily/monthly close above above 5471/90 before getting involved in any longer term trades...

As per previous post a confirmed monthly hold above 5471/ 5320 leaves 5830 and 1.60 as medium term targets....Also a daily close aove the 200MA is very bullish for GU.

Stocky
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  • #242
  • Jul 27, 2010 8:23am Jul 27, 2010 8:23am
Intraday volatility for EU is spazzing out. DR1 stopped the price by just 4 pips short of my stoploss before retreating. Somehow I am +10 back in the money now!?
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  • #243
  • Edited 10:03am Jul 27, 2010 9:54am | Edited 10:03am
Hmm, is this the beginning of the climb up the aqua extensions?

Previous chart: http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1279467879

I'll be looking for any move back into the fib cluster/ascending red MAs on the 4hr Guppy profile, and will most likely place an order to catch price on a reversal upwards back out of the red MAs. Of course, will be monitoring the 1hr and 15min, and the day and any pending news before pulling the trigger.

EDIT: Forgot to state, will be watching the 4hr Guppy profile for MA intersection.
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  • #244
  • Jul 27, 2010 10:15am Jul 27, 2010 10:15am
Quoting 45Condor
On a micro at 10 cents a pip, after 9am GMT, flipped a coin, and had a roughly 50/50 success rate in determination of trend. Unbelievable, to say the least.

Of course, cannot do that with real money, and most know, I rely on Fibonacci studies and Guppy profiles.

Regardless, that coin fallacy may have something in it. Right, back to the tea leaves.


As I'm not a tea leafer - in either sense - I can only offer you the grounds of this morning's finest Blue Mountain for your perusal. Given the way Cable's "grinding" higher, they may be quite appropriate......http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

However, as the Sun-Downer Hour will shortly be upon us, my next move will be in the direction of Barbados's finest.....a stiff Mount Gay on the rocks
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #245
  • Jul 27, 2010 10:15am Jul 27, 2010 10:15am
Just looking at bare Guppy profile with extensions.

Note that both Cable and Geppy have breached descending magenta TLs. Hmm...
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #246
  • Jul 28, 2010 3:46am Jul 28, 2010 3:46am
Same setup, different pair, different day. Adding shorts for GBPUSD at 1.5595 with a hard stop above the current daily high. Hourly closes below 15560 would be nice for confirmation.
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Euro shorts are somehow still in the game. DAX puts remain firmly underwater, about 3% down on those but they have till Aug 20 for expiry. Considering cable has moved up over 650 pips since the beginning of the new financial year, I recognise this as pretty poor performance from me but waiting patiently for the moves I want to see before allocating capital to any trade. I recognise this possibility is due to my attention being spread out over multiple instruments, last year I focused almost 100% on cable with only a few intraday GBPJPY trades. For now, plan to focus strongly on EURUSD and GBPUSD.
  • #247
  • Edited 6:37am Jul 28, 2010 6:24am | Edited 6:37am
It looks more and more likely we will have a monthly close above 5314 which is the resistance level for the monthly inside bar setup. Should this happen I will be looking to setup some medium term positions.

Given we tested the Daily 200MA yesterday for the first time in 7 months and managed to close just above it I see this as early signs we could be at the beginnig of a longer term bullish bias change in GU. I am expecting us to maybe spike a final time to clear weak shorts entering around here and test the resistance line for the acsending upward daily channel (1.57 area) before pulling back to 5470/61, 5314 zone andcontinuing the upmove...It is around here I have alerts set and will be looking to setup medium term longs.

Given the monthly close is above 5314 I will be keeping 5830 and 1.60 as medium term targets.

Stocky
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  • #248
  • Jul 28, 2010 6:27am Jul 28, 2010 6:27am
Quoting sinner-
Same setup, different pair, different day. Adding shorts for GBPUSD at 1.5595 with a hard stop above the current daily high. Hourly closes below 15560 would be nice for confirmation.
Bears seem to have 0 momentum so I am exiting all this rubbish here at breakeven and going to find some chicken soup. Will look for a new setup later.
  • #249
  • Jul 28, 2010 7:47am Jul 28, 2010 7:47am
Rather boring day...unless you're scalping.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #250
  • Jul 28, 2010 9:26pm Jul 28, 2010 9:26pm
Quoting sinner-
Bears seem to have 0 momentum so I am exiting all this rubbish here at breakeven and going to find some chicken soup. Will look for a new setup later.
Glad to have exited the GBPUSD position for BE rather than a loss which would have eventuated. EURUSD would be in the money now but I am disowning the euro I can't get a grip on it recently for some reason, willing to assume CB intervention in that market is distorting the normal signals I rely on and just leave it be. Judging from the chatter on forexlive, even if there is a fundamental EUR uptrend happening right now the SNB (and China for some reason over the last few days?) is selling into all strength and with SNB holding something like 40% of Swiss GDP in EUR fx reserves now due to their intervention efforts makes it difficult to pick what is fundamental supply/demand versus temporary. Much the same issue as has been occurring in USDJPY for quite some time now re exporters repatriating profits.

In one last (probably futile) attempt to pick a bottom on the USD I am re-establishing my GBPUSD shorts here 1.5990 with a new stop: hourly close above 1.565.
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  • #251
  • Jul 28, 2010 9:35pm Jul 28, 2010 9:35pm
Interestingly, and I don't like hearing about similar thinking because of the obvious, I went short at the exact same time.

We obviously received the same bioplasmic scalar suggestion at the same time. Hope it was from a source that wants to make us money.

And don't laugh, companies want to send out 7 billion "suggestions" every day for their consumer products. IT has been around for years. Every felt very afraid just when you are about to put in a big winning trade?
  • #252
  • Jul 29, 2010 5:04am Jul 29, 2010 5:04am
Quoting sinner-
Glad to have exited the GBPUSD position for BE rather than a loss which would have eventuated. EURUSD would be in the money now but I am disowning the euro I can't get a grip on it recently for some reason, willing to assume CB intervention in that market is distorting the normal signals I rely on and just leave it be. Judging from the chatter on forexlive, even if there is a fundamental EUR uptrend happening right now the SNB (and China for some reason over the last few days?) is selling into all strength and with SNB holding something like 40%...
Hi Sinner,

Hope trading is going well...

Thank for posting the USD index chart...useful info mate.... GU is proving tough work at the moment so I’m giving it zero room to punish me. This pair is definitely overbought and there is clear bearish divergence showing . For a counter short trade which I will also be playing I want a 4hr reversal signal (bearish engulfer, pinbar at resistance.etc)which we don’t have yet OR for us to reach the daily ascending channel resistance zone 1.57....although the 4hr is showing clear exhaustion....I’m being cautious shorting as this pair is trading sideways then pushing higher and repeating....very hard to scalp or pick the top.

A climax up bar followed by a high vol churn on the VSA indicator around 1.57 would be a great short prompt.

Stocky
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  • #253
  • Jul 29, 2010 5:39am Jul 29, 2010 5:39am
Prowling the editorial this week, and stumbled across a snippet this morning about how the EU was yesterday canvassing opinion from 10 or so sources of finance - PIMCO included - in order to determine their reactions to a national default.

They know what is coming, and with the recent emergency powers enacted in Greece as the truckers revolt and fuel runs out in Athens, that summer of discontent that I keep referring to, may well be underway.

EDIT: Forgot to mention; the total EU bailout fund was some 750 billion Euros. The total global bank bailout costs were reported to be 23 Trillion Dollars. The recent reported, and covered-up, exposure that European banks face is 30 Trillion Euros.

Gulp...
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #254
  • Jul 29, 2010 6:12am Jul 29, 2010 6:12am
A little more detail on the Dollar index chart sinner posted earlier....Just to give an indication how the dollar strength may effect GU around this current level... Im in agreeance the dollar index is due a retrace given it is at the weekly 200ma and showing signs of exhaustion on the daily and lower timeframes....I will be watching for a breakout of the hourly decending channel to the upside and at the same time looking for reversal setups on GU 4hr.

Stocky
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  • #255
  • Jul 29, 2010 6:26am Jul 29, 2010 6:26am
Quoting Stocky Monk
A little more detail on the Dollar index chart sinner posted earlier....Just to give an indication how the dollar strength may effect GU around this current level... Im in agreeance the dollar index is due a retrace given it is at the weekly 200ma and showing signs of exhaustion on the daily and lower timeframes....I will be watching for a breakout of the hourly decending channel to the upside and at the same time looking for reversal setups on GU 4hr.

Stocky
great analysis, I have a pending sell order GU at 5700

which charting software provides charts of the dollar index? the one i use doesnt have it.. thx in advance stocky
  • #256
  • Jul 29, 2010 6:44am Jul 29, 2010 6:44am
Quoting tomaz55
great analysis, I have a pending sell order GU at 5700

which charting software provides charts of the dollar index? the one i use doesnt have it.. thx in advance stocky
Hi Tomaz,

Glad you like the analysis....

I use prorealtime charting or strategy runner for FX and stocks.

The dollar index charts posted are just from barcharts.com....

Stocky
  • #257
  • Edited 7:10am Jul 29, 2010 6:46am | Edited 7:10am
Quoting Stocky Monk
A little more detail on the Dollar index chart sinner posted earlier....Just to give an indication how the dollar strength may effect GU around this current level... Im in agreeance the dollar index is due a retrace given it is at the weekly 200ma and showing signs of exhaustion on the daily and lower timeframes....I will be watching for a breakout of the hourly decending channel to the upside and at the same time looking for reversal setups on GU 4hr.

Stocky
Some additional proof of dollar strength to come could be that the daily chart of the continuous DX US Dollar future shows that price reached the 50% retracement level of the recent swing higher.
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  • #258
  • Jul 29, 2010 6:48am Jul 29, 2010 6:48am
Note that I am already short GBP/USD because on my chart the index already reached the upper line of my fork. Wide stop on this one, but large expectations also
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  • #259
  • Jul 29, 2010 7:26am Jul 29, 2010 7:26am
Quoting Hell7
Some additional proof of weakness to come could be that the daily chart of the continuous DX US Dollar future shows that price reached the 50% retracement level of the recent swing higher.
Hi Hell7,

Nice chart....Agreed the 50% zone in the dollar index could give us weakness in the cable....4hr pin formed on the last close in GU...price peaked at 5663....$dxy seems to have formed a bottom around 81.55 on the 5m.....I would like to see a pullback towards R1 or a break below the daily pivot before considering short. Im still a little cautious on shorts as the dollar index still has some downside left before it reaches the hourly channel support around 81.40 zone.

All the best with that short....

Stocky
  • #260
  • Jul 29, 2010 11:16am Jul 29, 2010 11:16am
Another 4hr pin formed in sucession...much stronger this time...Dollar index also has found support of lower channel support line around 81.50...Could be the combination we are after to get this retrace down to 5471/ 5315 area.

Im short of R1 at 5642 and 5620 .......small lot sizes with stop above 5700 incase this dont workout...dollar index could break below new found support which would give GU a push to hit 1.57 maybe higher before this retrace takes place. I expect us to pullback to 50% of the last pin before heading lower...

Stocky
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