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A Simple London Breakout V.2

  • #41
  • Jul 27, 2010 9:50pm Jul 27, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting mer071898
Here is the current results for the Eur/Usd.

The pair initiated a short trade at 09:15 GMT and closed out upon the reversal for a -162 pip loss at 16:00 GMT. New long trades were placed immediately using a multiplier of 2. Trade 1 has closed out for +66 pips (+33 x 2), leaving us with a running total of -96 pips. Trades 2 & 3 are still active at this times. Again, if we get to Target 2, we will have recouped our loss plus added +112 pips to the bank. We could possibly end up with up to +262 pips if Target 3 is reached.
Hello Mer and Squalou,
Do you let the remaining trades open until TakeProfit or StopLoss is reached or do you stopped 'em out at the beginning of the new other box (or at partial profit) from your experience ?

Mer, Have you been experimenting with this strategy a lot and realize it was profitable or is this still under heavy investigation (basically asking if you trade this live)?

If I have the time this Week-End, I will modify the original EA I wrote for the original strategy and I could provide a backtest on 2008-2009-2010 with the dukascopy datasets (tick accuracy of 99%). Are you interested in me posting the backtest ?

regards,
  • #42
  • Jul 27, 2010 9:59pm Jul 27, 2010 9:59pm
mer,

Ok...I want to spread my risk over multiple currency pairs as per your recommendation. In your 1st post, you mention you are watching 5 pairs: Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Eur/Jpy, Usd/Cad, and Gbp/Jpy.

Do you consider these 5 pairs as the optimum blend of risk diversification based on your statement in the last post?

Thanks,
BC
  • #43
  • Edited Jul 28, 2010 1:52am Jul 27, 2010 11:33pm | Edited Jul 28, 2010 1:52am
Quote
Hello Mer and Squalou,
Do you let the remaining trades open until TakeProfit or StopLoss is reached or do you stopped 'em out at the beginning of the new other box (or at partial profit) from your experience ?
For testing purposes, I am letting the open trades go until either a target is hit or we get stopped out, even if it goes past the new box. If you feel more comfortable to close out trades early, you are more than welcome to adjust it however you desire.

Quote
Mer, Have you been experimenting with this strategy a lot and realize it was profitable or is this still under heavy investigation (basically asking if you trade this live)?
This version was developed purely by accident. I was realizing that the original strategy was not producing the results I wanted, so I went back and was taking a hard look at past charts using the old strategy and a light bulb went off and it just hit me. I did some brainstorming with my buddy who is very proficient with Fibonacci rules and here we are. He and I have only been developing this for only a few weeks. I will never trade live until I'm absolutely positive the strategy is sound. I also am waiting to see what sqaulou comes up with regarding an EA as this will need a lot of screen time if you are trading it manually. So far everything is okay, but it will definitely need more forward testing first.
Quote
If I have the time this Week-End, I will modify the original EA I wrote for the original strategy and I could provide a backtest on 2008-2009-2010 with the dukascopy datasets (tick accuracy of 99%). Are you interested in me posting the backtest ?
I'm not sure how far along sqaulou is with his EA, it's a little more complicated than the original strategy, but you know what I always say, two heads are better than one. Let us know how it goes.

Quote
Ok...I want to spread my risk over multiple currency pairs as per your recommendation. In your 1st post, you mention you are watching 5 pairs: Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Eur/Jpy, Usd/Cad, and Gbp/Jpy.

Do you consider these 5 pairs as the optimum blend of risk diversification based on your statement in the last post?
Yes, diversification is important, but there are other factors to consider like spreads, daily range, volatility, and so on. These happen to be my favorite pairs to watch. Just make sure to change the minimum box size on pairs with a larger spread like Gbp/Jpy for example.
  • #44
  • Jul 28, 2010 12:52am Jul 28, 2010 12:52am
Quoting mer071898
Let us know how it goes.

Hi. Here is an example how you can get 99% tick accuracy. It works fine for me too.

http://eareview.net/tick-data
  • #45
  • Jul 28, 2010 1:30am Jul 28, 2010 1:30am
I know I said I would just show current chart results for Eur/Usd, but I wanted to give a total of the possible pips that could've been made last week for each pair following the strategy rules in post #1 (spreads not included). Any of the trades made on Friday were followed until closed or stopped out. The two pairs that weren't traded on the 21st of July below were over my 100-120 pip limit and were big losers (that's why there are rules in place!).

Eur/Usd- +770 pips
Gbp/Usd- +578 pips (July 21st-box over 120 pips)
Eur/Jpy- +1207 pips
Usd/Cad- +812 pips
Gbp/Jpy- +1243 pips (July 21st-box over 120 pips)

Grand Total= +4,610 pips

That's an average of 922 pips per pair for the week and an average of 184.4 per pair per day. And that is with no trades being taken on two pairs on July 21st due to their extremely large box size.
  • #46
  • Jul 28, 2010 6:42am Jul 28, 2010 6:42am
Dear mer071898
Thanks for this system
and i need your help about that:
I need simple way to got inter with pending orders buy and sell with stop loss and targets , so the sell may activate and hit target or stop whatever, or the the buy will activate. and i will open chart tommorow and put the next order and so on.
so is this will be profitable?
and what is your recommendation

another quiestion what is the best pair couse i preffere to use one pair.

Thank you alot
If its not boring .. you are not trading correctly
  • #47
  • Jul 28, 2010 6:42am Jul 28, 2010 6:42am
What does your "100-120 pip limit" refer to?
  • #48
  • Edited 9:45am Jul 28, 2010 8:41am | Edited 9:45am
Hi Mer,

great thread!

Regarding your GMT offset, I found out that your FXCBS account must be GMT+3 (you said earlier it is +2), because my FxPro account is GMT+3 too and I have set box start/end time to 07:00 to 10:00 for having the same picture as your screenshots.

So either your offset for FXCBS/screen shot is wrong OR the default box time has to be GMT 04:00 to 07:00 (instead of GMT 05:00 to 08:00)...

Could you please check and comment on my findings?

Thankx.
  • #49
  • Edited 12:26pm Jul 28, 2010 11:55am | Edited 12:26pm
Hi,

I am sorry for this very basic technical question but when I try to download the indicator it shows as php attachment and after download it does not show on the MT4 platform. Please advice
Thanks
Jill

Follow up, I tried to download again and it worked well. Thanks if someone fixed it
  • #50
  • Jul 28, 2010 12:30pm Jul 28, 2010 12:30pm
Quote
I need simple way to got inter with pending orders buy and sell with stop loss and targets , so the sell may activate and hit target or stop whatever, or the the buy will activate. and i will open chart tommorow and put the next order and so on.
so is this will be profitable?
and what is your recommendation

another quiestion what is the best pair couse i preffere to use one pair.

Well, I'm sure the EA that squalou is working on will place and close orders for you, but it is not finished yet. Maybe check in the Platform Tech section, maybe someone has a script that will work or someone can code a script for you. As for which pair is best, that's hard to say. According to last weeks results in post #45, Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy stand out, but next week they may not.

Quote
What does your "100-120 pip limit" refer to?

It means that we do not trade on any pair that has a box size larger than 100-120 pips. I use 100 pips on everything except Gbp/Jpy which I use 120 pips. I had squalou take that out of the indicator, but I'm going to have him put that back in to help filter the trades. We are going to add a optional twist to it, but we have to evaluate it first.
  • #51
  • Jul 28, 2010 12:38pm Jul 28, 2010 12:38pm
Quote
Regarding your GMT offset, I found out that your FXCBS account must be GMT+3 (you said earlier it is +2), because my FxPro account is GMT+3 too and I have set box start/end time to 07:00 to 10:00 for having the same picture as your screenshots.

Remember, we are still on British Summer Time, which is currently GMT +1, so any broker that is normally at GMT +3 in reality, is now GMT +2.
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  • #52
  • Jul 28, 2010 2:41pm Jul 28, 2010 2:41pm
Just to be clear here:-

Most London based Brokers work on London (UK) time.

This means that in the winter they work on GMT.

In the Summer they work on GMT + 1 hour. Their day starts at 23:00 GMT the day before.

There are exceptions. I trade with Alpari UK (2 Demo - 2 Live accounts). To avoid the one Hour of Sunday trading that London time brokers use they work on CET (Central European Time) which is normally GMT +1 and GMT +2 in summer. So I have 5 clear days charts.

There are several Cyprus based Brokers who are normally on GMT +2 but now (Daylight Savings Hours / Summer Time) they are on GMT +3.

In the USA Eastern Standard Time is GMT - 5 Hours.
Eastern Daylight Saving Time is GMT - 4 Hours.
Just for fun the time changes are made at a different time in the month to Europe and the UK.

Every forum that I visit has this problem. Most people outside and some inside the UK think that London or UK time is GMT. Although for 6 months they share the same actual time, the names are different. GMT and BST (British Summer Time).

Places that do not use daylight saving Time, for example The UAE, always keep the same time difference from GMT all year. But of course their time is different by 1 hour to all the countries that do make the change for a period of 6 months. No wonder that it causes problems!

Going back to the Indicator, I to had to alter my time away from the ones quoted to make them match with those posted on the Thread.

Excellent System, keep up the good work.
Best Regards
  • #53
  • Edited 2:58pm Jul 28, 2010 2:43pm | Edited 2:58pm
thank u mer071898

what you think
i will enter two trades on 8 oclock one is buy an the other is sell, and close the chart and go.
so one of them will activate the other will not, depending on trend move.
without multiplying and with one contract because my balance is still little yet
will it be profitable?
If its not boring .. you are not trading correctly
  • #54
  • Jul 28, 2010 2:59pm Jul 28, 2010 2:59pm
Quote
what you think
i will enter two trades on 8 oclock one is buy an the other is sell, and close the chart and go.
so one of them will activate the other will not, depending on trend move.
without multiplying and with one contract because my balance is still little yet
will it be profitable?

I would not trade this live as of yet, there's still a lot of forward testing to be done. But if your are determined, I would use the smallest lot size your broker allows. It is best to place 3 trades, but if you are just placing 1 trade, make sure to move your stops up at each target level. You can decide not to use the multipliers if you want to, but it will make it much more difficult to recover losses if you don't.
  • #55
  • Jul 28, 2010 3:05pm Jul 28, 2010 3:05pm
Quote
Every forum that I visit has this problem. Most people outside and some inside the UK think that London or UK time is GMT. Although for 6 months they share the same actual time, the names are different. GMT and BST (British Summer Time).

I agree completely, every thread that has an EA or indicator with time settings will have these issues, so if you are having trouble with lining up the times correctly, look at my chart examples and just change the times manually so they look similar and just save it as a template.
  • #56
  • Jul 28, 2010 3:29pm Jul 28, 2010 3:29pm
mer,

I am currently trading all 5 pairs that you are watching @ $0.01 per pip on Oanda.

Would you consider this a "bad" trading day for this sytem? I would, simply because no currency pair has made it to TP2, yet. That indicates a ranging market, to me.

My problem with trading this, so far, has been my inability to be awake to increase the Martingale lot sizes after losses.

For the bad news, at one time, I was running -467 pips overall. GU "cable" has been the profit killer.

The good news is that this scenario has now improved to only -29 pips overall. Some of the trades have closed out with wins, others with losses. I will let the current trades run to SL or TP and report back with the final results.

YMMV. My results are/will not be official because I haven't been able to implement the Martingale strategy. I plan to use a bit more conservative Martingale when applicable in the future. I may choose to reduce the number of currency pairs traded, but I like the idea of evening out the odds across a number of currency pairs.

If only I hadn't traded GU, today!
  • #57
  • Jul 28, 2010 3:55pm Jul 28, 2010 3:55pm
the problem: u have to be quick..
solution: watch less pairs
  • #58
  • Jul 28, 2010 4:23pm Jul 28, 2010 4:23pm
Quoting mistersimple
the problem: u have to be quick..
solution: watch less pairs


The problem is not to sleep so much! LOL
  • #59
  • Jul 28, 2010 9:54pm Jul 28, 2010 9:54pm
Hi

I am attaching some images on Eur Gbp. I have observed that very commonly there is an initial false bump followed by bigger reversal. Is this something of importance. Can this be utilized to trade this method more effectively? and can this be predicted?

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image
  • #60
  • Jul 28, 2010 11:12pm Jul 28, 2010 11:12pm
Quote
I am currently trading all 5 pairs that you are watching @ $0.01 per pip on Oanda.

Would you consider this a "bad" trading day for this sytem? I would, simply because no currency pair has made it to TP2, yet. That indicates a ranging market, to me.

You have to understand that you're not going to get perfect setups everyday, in fact a perfect setup occurs only 15-20% of the time. But just like the situation we had in post #12, we were down -423 pips at one point and ended end with +637 pips the by the end of the next day. You must be patient as I warned everyone in the first post that there is an inherent risk with using martingale strategies, and that risk is heavy drawdowns until we get our recovery. Does Oanda's platform have the ability to send e-mails to your phone or the ability to set price alerts? I have my platform send me an alert to my phone if I'm not home and I also set up price alerts when the price renters my box so I can be aware of retraces and re-entries.

Quote
Hi

I am attaching some images on Eur Gbp. I have observed that very commonly there is an initial false bump followed by bigger reversal. Is this something of importance. Can this be utilized to trade this method more effectively? and can this be predicted?

Jillsaab, I understand your concern and where you're coming from, but you did realize that on 3 out of 4 of your pics that you hit your Target 1 first, right? Just kidding with you , but what your seeing is the early trading after the bell until the real breakout occurs. The main point I was trying to convey on the first page is that in the original strategy, we were using the Target 1 as an entry point and we would get reversals almost immediately after our Entry triggered, which was frustrating to say the least. So that's why we took the original entry point and made it a Target instead. Also, those quick reversals can be a good thing and I'll show you an example:

In this Eur/Gbp chart we have a short entry triggered and an immediate reversal (which went to Target 3). Let's say the short entry never appeared, what did we earn?

Target 1= +14
Target 2= +30
Target 3= +45

Total pips= +89 pips

Now, let's calculate what we would've made including the short entry and the reversal we see in the chart originally:

Target 1= -23
Target 2= -23
Target 3= -23

Running Total= -69

Target 1= +28 (+14 x 2)
Target 2= +60 (+30 x 2)
Target 3= +90 (+45 x 2)

Total pips= +109

You actually made more money using the reversal the with having a straight run up to Target 3. I guess what I'm saying is don't be too concerned with the immediate reversals if they happen because you will end up making more in the long run.



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