this is a debate about how to not predict the market | Forex Factory

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this is a debate about how to not predict the market

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 28, 2010 8:08am Jul 28, 2010 8:08am
how not to predict the market and allways be in a trade
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  • #2
  • Jul 28, 2010 8:14am Jul 28, 2010 8:14am
As you can see you will allways be with the trend.

But the problem is, it can go sideways for a long time and triggering your orders and stoplosses.

So the million dollar question is, how do you avoid that??????
  • #3
  • Jul 28, 2010 8:19am Jul 28, 2010 8:19am
if you dont understand the method, ask me a question
  • #4
  • Jul 28, 2010 11:25am Jul 28, 2010 11:25am
Quoting killerbee
if you dont understand the method, ask me a question
I don't understand the method, or why your entries and stops are where they are.
  • #5
  • Jul 28, 2010 11:34am Jul 28, 2010 11:34am
Quoting pipmutt
I don't understand the method, or why your entries and stops are where they are.
Don't really have to know. He is asking the age old question of what to do in a sideways movement for a trend follower.

answer: Just do what you do all the time. Take the loss like a man. You will make it all back.

Don't bother trying to outsmart the system. Most often than not, you will succumb to poor mental health and start to make wrong decisions. REmember law of large numbers.
  • #6
  • Jul 28, 2010 11:37am Jul 28, 2010 11:37am
Quoting thelws
Don't really have to know......Take the loss like a man.
Oh come on, seriously?

Anyway, he said "if you dont understand the method, ask me a question".....and I'm askin'!
  • #7
  • Jul 28, 2010 11:37am Jul 28, 2010 11:37am
Killerbee, that's a good old-fashioned breakout you're describing, except you've just upped your transaction costs by hedging the initial entry.
Trust me, the desire to be in trades at all times goes pretty quickly.
  • #8
  • Jul 28, 2010 1:26pm Jul 28, 2010 1:26pm
I don't EVER try to predict the market because you never can; we are not the ones that determine the market. I just go with the flow and get out until the flow stops.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #9
  • Jul 28, 2010 2:29pm Jul 28, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting pipmutt
I don't understand the method, or why your entries and stops are where they are.
hey pipmutt

the entry is completely random.

When we place a trade, we dont know which way it will go, (but offcourse if we think it will go up we buy, and short if we think it will go down)

The method is based on, that market have to move somewhere, but we dont know Where. So therefor we allways place two trades

trade A: Long market order at 1.3000, stoploss at 1.2995
trade B: short limit order at 1.2995, stoploss at 1.3000

So when the market eventually move up or down we will be in it. Unless if the market stay in the 5 pip range forever.
  • #10
  • Jul 28, 2010 2:35pm Jul 28, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting triphop
Killerbee, that's a good old-fashioned breakout you're describing, except you've just upped your transaction costs by hedging the initial entry.
Trust me, the desire to be in trades at all times goes pretty quickly.
hey triphop

sorry i dont understand what you mean, can you please explain.
Its not hedging because, when one order hits stoploss the other the order starts.
  • #11
  • Jul 28, 2010 2:37pm Jul 28, 2010 2:37pm
Quoting Forexia
I don't EVER try to predict the market because you never can; we are not the ones that determine the market. I just go with the flow and get out until the flow stops.
exactly
  • #12
  • Jul 28, 2010 2:44pm Jul 28, 2010 2:44pm
I have to make predictions at some level, whether it be on a large scope or a microscopic scope, how can you ever place a trade if you dont?


Maybe it is the way we define the word 'predict'. I hear a lot of people say "I dont predict, I react", but by my definition, you are still predicting even when you are reacting.

I personally dont like to make predictions that are too far into the future, however, I DO make predictions based on short term analysis, usually within the context of a longer term analysis. I would like to see my short term predictions turn into my longer term predictions. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they dont, but I can never escape the fact that, at some level, I am trying to predict the future.
  • #13
  • Jul 28, 2010 2:54pm Jul 28, 2010 2:54pm
Quoting killerbee

When we place a trade, we dont know which way it will go, (but offcourse if we think it will go up we buy, and short if we think it will go down)
When you say "of course if we THINK it will go up we buy" doesn't that contradict your statement that you have no idea which way it will go?
  • #14
  • Jul 28, 2010 3:07pm Jul 28, 2010 3:07pm
hey man, what if you change long orders for short and vice versa? Both your trades would be profitable.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #15
  • Jul 28, 2010 3:12pm Jul 28, 2010 3:12pm
yeah it does, when i think it will go up my first order will be long and at my stoploss will be my short, Because i dont know if my prediction will be right.
Im not saying that you cant predict the market, im just showing you that there is a method if you cant.
  • #16
  • Jul 28, 2010 3:14pm Jul 28, 2010 3:14pm
On your chart, you go short immediately after your long SL was hit? Or you go short where the text label is?
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #17
  • Jul 28, 2010 3:17pm Jul 28, 2010 3:17pm
Quoting spekitox
hey man, what if you change long orders for short and vice versa? Both your trades would be profitable.
hey spekitox

dont you have to be right with the first trade then?

please explain
  • #18
  • Jul 28, 2010 3:19pm Jul 28, 2010 3:19pm
yes i go short as soon as my long order stoploss is hit.
  • #19
  • Jul 28, 2010 3:21pm Jul 28, 2010 3:21pm
Ok. Maybe you should move SL to BE after some time, or after some pips profit? Then the 2nd trade, the short, would have ended without loss?

Quoting killerbee
yes i go short as soon as my long order stoploss is hit.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #20
  • Jul 28, 2010 3:22pm Jul 28, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting killerbee

trade A: Long market order at 1.3000, stoploss at 1.2995
trade B: short limit order at 1.2995, stoploss at 1.3000

So when the market eventually move up or down we will be in it. Unless if the market stay in the 5 pip range forever.
Ok, but what happens if price triggers your long and then triggers your stop, and then reverses and triggers your short and triggers that stop as well?

With a 5 pip stop I could see you getting whipsawed a new one!

Contrary to popular opinion the market does in fact frequently move in some very predictable patterns so it's possible to place trades based on the probability that price will in fact go your way.

Look at that chart you posted again and see if you can spot any tradeable patterns. Then look back across charts and see if those patterns were repeated. If they were then there's a reasonable chance they'll repeat again. How easy is that!

If you're going to make random entries like that then I think you're going to have to bring a bit more to the party if you want to be profitable, it's been tried many times before!

I still don't get what you mean by "As you can see you will allways be with the trend"....

It's great that you're thinking about this stuff and coming up with ideas of your own instead of trying to adopt someone else's strategy!
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