Silent Service Method | Page 502 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Silent room 2 replies

Silent Success of Patience 10 replies

My silent journal 4 replies

bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies

Seeing Through the Silent Crash 4 replies

Attachments: Silent Service Method
Exit Attachments

Silent Service Method

  • #10,021
  • Jul 27, 2010 3:35am Jul 27, 2010 3:35am
The EURUSD 4hr chart looks to be putting in a 3-drives to a top formation at the moment with the RSI sitting just under 70 on this being the 2nd drive.

I would like to see the third drive take place in very early August and see it coincide with a test of 1150 on the S&P.

If this occurs and the RSI looks weak we may very well have the makings of a strong move lower.

Interesting as you say Arfer about price hovering some places. Notice the daily bearish outside bar from 20 July has still not been broken to the upside...

Interestingly enough, with the benefit of hindsight, we have not actually had a true sell signal yet since the upturn began.
  • #10,022
  • Jul 27, 2010 3:54am Jul 27, 2010 3:54am
Quoting 4xAddict
The EURUSD 4hr chart looks to be putting in a 3-drives to a top formation at the moment with the RSI sitting just under 70 on this being the 2nd drive.

I would like to see the third drive take place in very early August and see it coincide with a test of 1150 on the S&P.

If this occurs and the RSI looks weak we may very well have the makings of a strong move lower.

Interesting as you say Arfer about price hovering some places. Notice the daily bearish outside bar from 20 July has still not been broken to the upside...

Interestingly enough,...
Well I'm only trading weeklies at the moment and last week was a big doji. I want to see a close below the low of that doji before I sell. Of course a close above 1.30 would be a buy.

I looked at buying usdchf last week but the 3sma kept me out of the trade, I think these two pairs could be going sideways for a bit before they make their mind up. Who knows, maybe this is the summer range for the next 4 or so weeks and the start of September will see the trend for the future determined?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,023
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:14am Jul 27, 2010 7:14am
Quoting Arfer Daily
GbpUsd at 1.55 and EurUsd at 1.30. Someone once said (Jacko I think, maybe James16?) that price doesn't like support/resistance, it usually moves away from it pretty quickly, if it hangs around too long it usually means it's going to break. It'll be interesting to see what happens here.

I think that was Jacko. To be honest, it's an old example that comes to mind:

If one wants to kick down a door, it is better to take a simple step or two away from it, rather than run from far away. Price is the same. If a s/r area gets hit from a quick move from 200 pips away, often the move lacks the energy because who is left to buy? Going back to the door scenario - you would be out of breath by the time you get to the door if you ran 200 yards first.
  • #10,024
  • Edited 7:57am Jul 27, 2010 7:14am | Edited 7:57am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Well I'm only trading weeklies at the moment and last week was a big doji. I want to see a close below the low of that doji before I sell. Of course a close above 1.30 would be a buy.

I looked at buying usdchf last week but the 3sma kept me out of the trade, I think these two pairs could be going sideways for a bit before they make their mind up. Who knows, maybe this is the summer range for the next 4 or so weeks and the start of September will see the trend for the future determined?

I would agree with the trend being determined at the end of August, early September. Historically, that tend to be the truth. I am normally busier than a "one armed wallpaper hanger" with my painting that time of year, and miss the start of the move. Bastards, you all should wait until I am ready!

Oh, and you are welcome for your new hillbilly-ism of the day.
  • #10,025
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:25am Jul 27, 2010 7:25am
Quoting clockwork71
I would agree with the trend being determined at the end of August, early September. Historically, that tend to be the truth.
You mean I gotta wait till Sept for my next trade??
  • #10,026
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:57am Jul 27, 2010 7:57am
Quoting clockwork71
I would agree with the trend being determined at the end of August, early September. Historically, that tend to be the truth.
Funny how time flies, in the back of my head I can remember that I probably learnt this from you last year!

If there's anything else you know already that you want me to teach you (trendlines maybe?) then let me know. Remember though... keep an open mind...
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,027
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:59am Jul 27, 2010 7:59am
Quoting stewrigh
You mean I gotta wait till Sept for my next trade??
Yeah, but the way you hang on.....does it matter? lol
  • #10,028
  • Jul 27, 2010 8:22am Jul 27, 2010 8:22am
Quoting clockwork71
Yeah, but the way you hang on.....does it matter? lol

No - but my USDCHF trade is looking a bit tired now and I can't find anything to replace it with.
  • #10,029
  • Jul 27, 2010 9:31am Jul 27, 2010 9:31am
Quoting stewrigh
No - but my USDCHF trade is looking a bit tired now and I can't find anything to replace it with.
There is a possible short in gold. Watch the AUD......might be your trade this year. lol
  • #10,030
  • Jul 27, 2010 9:48am Jul 27, 2010 9:48am
Hi all,

If you get a chance would you mind adding to a FF discussion thread that I have started both for my info and that of new traders.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=247258

Basically just visit and name the single best book on forex and or trading that you have ever read. If you have a couple of lines about it too that would be much appreciated. Also feel free to comment on any books people have already listed with either supporting comments or a concise critique.

Cheers,

4x.
  • #10,031
  • Jul 27, 2010 10:13am Jul 27, 2010 10:13am
Quoting clockwork71
There is a possible short in gold. Watch the AUD......might be your trade this year. lol

Might have missed the gold trade - it dropped over $20 today.

That should bring Aussie down - Yep still watching Aussie
  • #10,032
  • Jul 27, 2010 10:48am Jul 27, 2010 10:48am
gold stopped its fall at 200MA. lets see.
  • #10,033
  • Jul 27, 2010 1:33pm Jul 27, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi all,

If you get a chance would you mind adding to a FF discussion thread that I have started both for my info and that of new traders.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=247258

Basically just visit and name the single best book on forex and or trading that you have ever read. If you have a couple of lines about it too that would be much appreciated. Also feel free to comment on any books people have already listed with either supporting comments or a concise critique.

Cheers,

4x.
I cannot post to that thread dues to the commercial member designation, but I would vote for Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator.
  • #10,034
  • Jul 27, 2010 1:36pm Jul 27, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting stewrigh
Might have missed the gold trade - it dropped over $20 today.

That should bring Aussie down - Yep still watching Aussie
The Aussie could also fall due to the economic picture. I know a lot of people are excited over certain numbers, but until jobs come back - it's all setting up for disappointment.

Also, I am still astonished that people believe that Euro Bank Stress Test.

Amazing.

Of course, the EUR/USD isn't exactly on fire at the 1.30 level. It made a new high....but only just.
  • #10,035
  • Jul 27, 2010 1:57pm Jul 27, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting clockwork71
The Aussie could also fall due to the economic picture. I know a lot of people are excited over certain numbers, but until jobs come back - it's all setting up for disappointment.

Also, I am still astonished that people believe that Euro Bank Stress Test.

Amazing.

Of course, the EUR/USD isn't exactly on fire at the 1.30 level. It made a new high....but only just.

Yeah, I don't understand the tests either, so I'm trying to ignore them too.

I think that ppl are more worried about the dollar atm, which gives me a problem cos I want to sell the Euro but I just can't/Won't buy the dollar hence my Usdchf trade. Also like the look of Eurochf - think thats gonna revert to trend soon, but then I'd be overexposed to the swissie so maybe not.
  • #10,036
  • Jul 27, 2010 2:14pm Jul 27, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting clockwork71
The Aussie could also fall due to the economic picture. I know a lot of people are excited over certain numbers, but until jobs come back - it's all setting up for disappointment.

Also, I am still astonished that people believe that Euro Bank Stress Test.

Amazing.

Of course, the EUR/USD isn't exactly on fire at the 1.30 level. It made a new high....but only just.
R.E stress tests, it is my firm opinion that everyone with any intelligence is on summer holidays and when they are all back at the end of August things will be quite different.

Also, here's an observation for everyone regarding the state of the UK economy and therefore the GBP.

Here in somewhat sunny London there has been an eerie silence since the election as people have waited to see what the impact of this new government and their big cuts are going to entail - and how the average punter will be effected.

The NHS (National Health Service) is the largest employer in the UK and the depth of the government cuts have been slowly filtering down the chains of command this week with the result being massive layoffs across London. All locum staff have been fired at numerous hospitals across the city, no full- time or part-time positions are to be re-advertised when staff leave. This may seem insignificant however
1. locums are approximately 80-85% young Australians, Kiwis, South Africans, Spaniards and Irish. All of whom are young professionals living it up and spending all their hard earned in retail stores, cafes, bars and on holidays.
2. The NHS also has the most generous maternity leave policies of any employer in the UK, giving essentially 6-9 months pay with the ability to extend that figure back to back if a woman has a second/third child within a certain period. For this reason there are teams of girls leaving every month on maternity leave, none of whose jobs will be re-advertised any more.

I know this because my partner is a locum therapist (now in the private sector fortunately) and also my neighbour here is the head of HR and Staffing Policy for the Department of Health - i.e one of the heads of the NHS.

Not only are all of these staff getting fired but 40% of all management are being laid off and those left are being made to take on clinical roles again - i.e all physios, DRs and nurses in admin roles are now half admin/half practicing again.

Now this has not happened at every hospital but it is happening at vast numbers of sites all across the country.

This will start to show up in the unemployment figures in the UK by my calculations within 2 months and very possibly even next month. The resulting massive reduction in the labour force and retail spending capacity of the population here will DEFINITELY get noticed and in my opinion, if the GBP is worth USD1.55 then I will be very surprised.

If by year end the FTSE and the GBP have not dropped quite a bit then it will be amazing.

Once data starts to disappoint I will be building short UK positions. It might be worth watching the market and the GBP over the coming months to see how far the people "in the know" will push this before they start bailing out.

Just my 2 cents worth.

Hope someone made money today, I almost fell asleep at the computer.

Yawn, Cheers.
  • #10,037
  • Jul 27, 2010 2:21pm Jul 27, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting 4xAddict

........If by year end the FTSE and the GBP have not dropped quite a bit then it will be amazing.

Once data starts to disappoint I will be building short UK positions. It might be worth watching the market and the GBP over the coming months to see how far the people "in the know" will push this before they start bailing out.

Just my 2 cents worth.

Hope someone made money today, I almost fell asleep at the computer.

Yawn, Cheers.
Thanks so much for that As I am strictly a technician, having a window into UK main-street fundamentals is a gift.

Please always share your thoughts and views with us.
  • #10,038
  • Jul 27, 2010 2:43pm Jul 27, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting stewrigh
Yeah, I don't understand the tests either, so I'm trying to ignore them too.

I think that ppl are more worried about the dollar atm, which gives me a problem cos I want to sell the Euro but I just can't/Won't buy the dollar hence my Usdchf trade. Also like the look of Eurochf - think thats gonna revert to trend soon, but then I'd be overexposed to the swissie so maybe not.

I wouldn't be quick to over exposed to CHF, I think you are correct in worrying about that my man.

I think EUR/CHF is still a short - just not now.
  • #10,039
  • Jul 27, 2010 2:48pm Jul 27, 2010 2:48pm
Inserted Video
  • #10,040
  • Jul 27, 2010 3:29pm Jul 27, 2010 3:29pm
Quoting clockwork71
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKluc...layer_embedded
That is F&%$ing hilarious and as suggested is the best goal celebration ever.
9 traders viewing now