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Fibonacci Paradise

  • #1,501
  • Jul 27, 2010 11:52am Jul 27, 2010 11:52am
This is an example of pulling back on a swing fib looking long. I think this is an inferior method of fibbing but if you have charts laying around with these on sometimes things show their knickers.

This signalled at the green BUT in my opinion was not tradeable until it confirmed on the 50 of late... it found the path. the patient man got at least 650-700 pips with almost no drawdown(depending on entry).. and I suppose a razor tight stop if risk reward is an issue.

this is what I mean gents about waiting for price to find the fib. If price is meandering like a drunken shepeard through your fib... well I would be not trading that. Swing fibs need confirmation..I find 61.8 fibs well the confirmation is built in from the get go.

this was a big missing piece of the puzzle with fibs for myself since trading them was often an enter blindly and whiten my knuckles. Test this concept out. A lot of things were going on but then it found the fib and came out of it's haze. You can only trade what you see and every movement of price on a chart is reacting to some fib on the way to some target if price is reacting to your fib.. well you have a very good trade frame.

I don't care if this took 45 months to set up. This one trade would mint you. How long would you wait? Patience is the biggest key to fibs for me.
TK
Crimson areas are where I would have put risk.

Edit: my anchor is off piste it looks better with it clicked...
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  • #1,502
  • Jul 27, 2010 12:05pm Jul 27, 2010 12:05pm
She has a lovely D1 on the move for a coupla hundred just signalled for those who can't handle the speed of GY.

TK
I would be shocked if this was done by weeks end if not thursday...as always the more it retraces the better a buy it is though.

EDIT: I just looked at weekly.. and it looks like bottom is in til 123 range.. so i might be tempted to let it ride for a spell like perhaps to scope for 148 if we get there.
  • #1,503
  • Jul 27, 2010 12:07pm Jul 27, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Crimeny. Gy finally broke after signalling(for me) almost 2 months ago. chuckle. I lurv reading analysis on other threads on here..so i know whose money we are taking. chuckle.

Porky pies? never mate! You may be being too rigid looking for exactly x then y then z, but if it works for you I am over the moon.

It may help you bartstop...here is my mind on this.. I knew 2 things going
into say... gy... the daily is long until perhaps 170 with some near term stops obviously since that is a massive range. We have been looking for 139 very near term....
139 I see, but 170? It looks to me like we're going to continue the trend down.
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  • #1,504
  • Jul 27, 2010 12:24pm Jul 27, 2010 12:24pm
Looks like a top. For now anyways. Thom; is the the kind of advanced stuff you look at?
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Jeremiah WAS a bullfrog.
  • #1,505
  • Jul 27, 2010 12:30pm Jul 27, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting 3 Dog Night
Looks like a top. For now anyways. Thom; is the the kind of advanced stuff you look at?
No mate, I am a simple chap. I don't really use anything I don't post. The most "advanced" I get is using a fib with multiple outlays of 138.2 cycles. I don't care about pips/rr (in general) so a simple 61.8 fib is all I need.

The multiple fib outlay works like your fib tool; however I am not mathmateically inclined enough toi know why your ( or any for that matter) fib levels work... I just know they do. Chuckle.

TK
  • #1,506
  • Jul 27, 2010 12:31pm Jul 27, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting bartstop
139 I see, but 170? It looks to me like we're going to continue the trend down.
when?
  • #1,507
  • Jul 27, 2010 12:38pm Jul 27, 2010 12:38pm
Quoting ThomKnight
when?
Before we go above 163.
  • #1,508
  • Jul 27, 2010 12:39pm Jul 27, 2010 12:39pm
The MKT bears may celebrate from this chart... it looks mighty bullish to the naked eye will be a Brew Night for da bears if this trips. I have not looked closer to see if it already has. Has anyone charted SP etc recently...

TK
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  • #1,509
  • Jul 27, 2010 12:56pm Jul 27, 2010 12:56pm
Quoting ThomKnight
You may be being too rigid looking for exactly x then y then z, but if it works for you I am over the moon.
That was the only way I could make sense of that GY swing. On the other hand, I can't seem to trade these fibs to save my ass. I know my psychology is wrong but I don't know how to make it right. It's like every time I place a trade, the price goes the other way. I can't draw a good fib until the move is almost over. It's very frustrating and I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one having this problem.
  • #1,510
  • Jul 27, 2010 1:39pm Jul 27, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting bartstop
That was the only way I could make sense of that GY swing. On the other hand, I can't seem to trade these fibs to save my ass. I know my psychology is wrong but I don't know how to make it right. It's like every time I place a trade, the price goes the other way. I can't draw a good fib until the move is almost over. It's very frustrating and I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one having this problem.
Ok no you are not.. I could fib... in retrospect... and then pat myself on the back.. and then go to place a trade and almost redline my account...in which i shortly after 3-4 trade would margin it...curse fibs...myself..and declare it hokum and move on. I had to get my fibbing in line before I could trade since if you don;t trust your fibbing ... you are trading...guesses.. in which case.. this is terrible because of the godawful RR.

the biggest issue gents seem to have with fibs is trading them... fibbing doesnt seem to be the issue once you have a style down.. but trading is hard. I have had trades go into massive drawdown.. but I was prepared for it.

you go through the Skunny fib stages... we all have I assume.

I can help with fibbing.. as far as trading... that is very person to person. The magic of fibs is simply this:

" I know it won't go past zero once it has pierced 100 and my target is 138.2"

take a second and think about that. Don;t immediately say what if it doesnt... because from back testing you will have nailed this part and also nuances to keep you safe from yourself( like that GY or EU short we dealt with earlier.)

If you are a trader that statement is stunning, if you are newer or learning... all you will think is... the risk reward is bollocks..

perhaps... if you walk us through your thinking on setting up a fib... we can deal with that.
  • #1,511
  • Jul 27, 2010 1:41pm Jul 27, 2010 1:41pm
The best way I can describe it is... you use the fib to read the market and figure out what it is doing...not only where it is going but what it is doing.
  • #1,512
  • Jul 27, 2010 2:41pm Jul 27, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting ThomKnight
The MKT bears may celebrate from this chart... it looks mighty bullish to the naked eye will be a Brew Night for da bears if this trips. I have not looked closer to see if it already has. Has anyone charted SP etc recently...

TK
Thom,

That funky chart has me doing flips. More wacky than my own, I dare say.

Don;t watch the S/P. Forex is plenty for me.

Cheers!
Jeremiah WAS a bullfrog.
  • #1,513
  • Jul 27, 2010 2:44pm Jul 27, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting ThomKnight
The best way I can describe it is... you use the fib to read the market and figure out what it is doing...not only where it is going but what it is doing.
Have you ever thought about doing a video? It might help us to hear your thoughts while you set your chart up. I'm pretty sure the software is free. What do you think?
  • #1,514
  • Jul 27, 2010 4:10pm Jul 27, 2010 4:10pm
Took this trade at the break north of the IB that showed respect to .382. Was drawn down two pips plus spread. Currently up 20 with stop at BE. Time will tell. Does anyone take issue with the fib I have pulled? Been doing this a while now and these are great for relatively quick pips. Some get stopped and I'll look for another entry. I prfer 15 min charts. I can also see a scenario that if TP level holds, a short would be in play soon after.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #1,515
  • Jul 27, 2010 5:43pm Jul 27, 2010 5:43pm
Hi mate. If I pulled a fib from that position my fib would be here.

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This is not to say you are wrong, I'm just going for the next "sequential" position. I mean track for longs, in this case, until we get a pierce from the 61.8 then leave the fib there.

Excellent dudes...MD.
Keep smiling
  • #1,516
  • Jul 27, 2010 6:18pm Jul 27, 2010 6:18pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Hi mate. If I pulled a fib from that position my fib would be here.

Attachment

This is not to say you are wrong, I'm just going for the next "sequential" position. I mean track for longs, in this case, until we get a pierce from the 61.8 then leave the fib there.

Excellent dudes...MD.

Hey Darren! How's it going over there in the UK bro? Thanks for your comments but I have a follow up question. Is the problem with my fib pull that I have not plotted it with respect to the bottom wick of that candle at the .382? It has been my understanding on this set up that we first look for our plot to fit to 61.8. We then look for a pierce of the zero then a pullback to perfectly bounce off the 38 or the 50. We then trade the zero break to the 138. I'm certain now that there is some detail that I have missed and that concerns me as my confidence is high. LOL!!


K.I.S.S.
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  • #1,517
  • Jul 27, 2010 8:48pm Jul 27, 2010 8:48pm
Left side is the swing fib and right side is the 61.8 fib both hit there target.
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  • #1,518
  • Jul 27, 2010 9:05pm Jul 27, 2010 9:05pm
61.8 fib target hit.
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  • #1,519
  • Edited 3:00am Jul 28, 2010 1:29am | Edited 3:00am
Quoting KissFan
Hey Darren!...
We are actually getting a summer here in the UK for once!

First a disclaimer. I am not the expert here, I am still putting the puzzle together. So from what I know if you are form fitting a 61.8 fib I would look for visibly perfect fib hits to know that I had highlighted the correct fib.

I have been pulling different fibs of late, I don't know if we would call them Skunny fibs but they are pulled sequentially. I use them to ascertain where we are in the current price flow. This helps, for example with your fib, before trading that I might want to be confident we are heading long at this current juncture.

I've probably confused you now but if you don't know what I mean just ask.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #1,520
  • Edited 7:43am Jul 28, 2010 6:21am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting Misterdaz
We are actually getting a summer here in the UK for once!

First a disclaimer. I am not the expert here, I am still putting the puzzle together. So from what I know if you are form fitting a 61.8 fib I would look for visibly perfect fib hits to know that I had highlighted the correct fib.

I have been pulling different fibs of late, I don't know if we would call them Skunny fibs but they are pulled sequentially. I use them to ascertain where we are in the current price flow. This helps, for example with your fib, before trading that I might want...


No worries Darren. Thank you for your reply. The trade played fine and went where it looked like it would go. I am currently watching this one on usdchf and waiting for the time to come to place a long order. I'll start posting more here often and sharing my thoughts for commentary, critique and ideas.

K.I.S.S.

Edit: I'll have to redraw this one now as the 0 wasn't breached and the price seems to have changed the game here.
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