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Fibonacci Paradise

  • #1,461
  • Jul 23, 2010 11:05am Jul 23, 2010 11:05am
Hi 3 Dog

Not much room for hoping in trading

Would you like to show us a chart?


Gnarf and 3 Dog, just was wondering why you wanted to know my first name if we don't know each other?
  • #1,462
  • Jul 23, 2010 11:05am Jul 23, 2010 11:05am
Quoting bartstop
Thom, in Livermore's book, he watched similar stocks to filter out false moves. Do we need to incorporate a similar strategy? I do see a long 61-pierce-50 on EU.
I do that sometimes if I am not sure. without getting all dogmatic and triggering the ire of some folks.. there are no false moves.. but there are moves you may not be able to track(based on skill) that close out and you may feel it is a signal to go decidedly in one direction which is incorrect. So if tracking a bucket of jpy pairs helps you trade then by all means.

I trade EU and GY and mostly GY and 9/10 I am only tracking what I am trading. I know a lot of chaps like to track gold dxy oil etc.. but that is just mental masterbation for this and a waste of time in my book.

when it all boils down to it... the easiest pair to trade is EU. It is very liquid, and very simple..if you are paying spread... it will have the lowest. I have people start on EU and most often stay there.



TK
  • #1,463
  • Jul 23, 2010 11:08am Jul 23, 2010 11:08am
Quoting Eggster
"something to look at when deciding when and where to get long on GU"

Talking about free form those charts confuse me.

Chart 4 above and this, is what I look for to go long.

I have said it a few times in my posts.

Where do we get rejection????
Mate that is not free form at all it is using the property of nearest SR and 61.8... and as you will find the charts are deadly accurate. You see a bounce off of a daily sr line on a triggered fib and you can decided to enter it there with a tight stop... or just zoom into one hour and take a quick one hour long lay up fib.

Things only look confusing i suppose unless you know the method behind it.. ala All of Skunny's charts in his thread.. before anyone knew what he might be up to.
  • #1,464
  • Jul 23, 2010 11:11am Jul 23, 2010 11:11am
Eggster,

I think the disconnect is i need a pip perfect or obseravbly so hit for a bounce and I hunt until i find one(there is ALWAYS one).. if price cruises through a level say 20 pips then 'bounces off of it.. that is too fuzzy for me. I understand your viewpoint.

TK
  • #1,465
  • Jul 23, 2010 11:29am Jul 23, 2010 11:29am
short GU? chuckle.. I knew something was amiss.
the scaling on my charts is all off what i see and snap a pic of is not what posts.. hmm

at any rate here is another view of gu and a completely valid fib for going long from. No doubt it will look wonky aswell. chuckle.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu2.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #1,466
  • Jul 23, 2010 11:41am Jul 23, 2010 11:41am
so to build off of the hits bounces etc.... here is my GY chart that said ahoy get into that move now... there was also a closure out on a smaller time frame to the short side at the 50 line... by using the 61.8 property to the left of the low point.. it happened to describe the recent push off of price... which showed me it was a pip perfect.. or tweakably observably so, hit with a rejection.. hence time to go long..hence i need pretty precise hits and will do what needs be done to get them or I wont enter a trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,467
  • Jul 23, 2010 1:32pm Jul 23, 2010 1:32pm
Hello Thom

I see where you are coming from, thanks for your posts

I think we are saying the exact same thing, just from a different angle.
  • #1,468
  • Jul 23, 2010 1:39pm Jul 23, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting Eggster
Hello Thom

I see where you are coming from, thanks for your posts

I think we are saying the exact same thing, just from a different angle.

That is often the case mate! looks like easy trading for the rest of the year though! long.

TK
  • #1,469
  • Jul 23, 2010 1:40pm Jul 23, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Eggster,

I think the disconnect is i need a pip perfect or obseravbly so hit for a bounce and I hunt until i find one(there is ALWAYS one).. if price cruises through a level say 20 pips then 'bounces off of it.. that is too fuzzy for me. I understand your viewpoint.

TK

That would be an indication of what is to come, next area maybe ?

Just areas to be aware off, for whatever purpose, you, a general "you" decide.
  • #1,470
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:00pm Jul 23, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting Eggster
That would be an indication of what is to come, next area maybe ?

Just areas to be aware off, for whatever purpose, you, a general "you" decide.
ah yes the 1.38? of course. look for a potential reversal.
Have a good weekend mates.
  • #1,471
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:59pm Jul 23, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting Eggster
Hi 3 Dog

Not much room for hoping in trading

Would you like to show us a chart?


Gnarf and 3 Dog, just was wondering why you wanted to know my first name if we don't know each other?
Hey Egg!

Hope? Well; that all depends on your definition....lol! The boys at my desk keep me in line, though.

We all know each other one way or another in my book. "Gnarf and 3 Dog"! Sounds like a kids show from the 70's!! I like it...lol!

Have a good weekend mates. Off to my local pub for some liquid libation.
Jeremiah WAS a bullfrog.
  • #1,472
  • Jul 23, 2010 3:14pm Jul 23, 2010 3:14pm
Quoting ThomKnight
short GU? chuckle.. I knew something was amiss.
the scaling on my charts is all off what i see and snap a pic of is not what posts.. hmm

at any rate here is another view of gu and a completely valid fib for going long from. No doubt it will look wonky aswell. chuckle.
Maybe my charts are off too...

From my experience gained mixing with you good folks (except BarTstop) I have learnt to look for a reason for price to head the other way, sometimes they are not easy to spot, perhaps due to skill but that can be gained. Thom I looked at GU on a 4h chart earlier today and also looked for the candle body pivot around the 61.8 (this I have learned). I looked on all timescales and could find no valid conclusion. I stuck to my trusted rule of if you are not sure get out or don't do it so I have no loss. Missed trades though.

Here's my 4h and why I felt it was not complete from my perspective. It is still good to know that I was looking for the right signs as I was at my whits end.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu230710.JPG Size: 85 KB


This chart with the 4h pivot lined up gives a 25pt pierce at the lower 138. From my perspective that says pull the fib down and thats why I did not consider this fib closed. I know, 4h charts vary from broker to broker, timezone to timezone, bit of a conundrum for me though.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu230710b.JPG Size: 81 KB


Have a nice weekend all.
Keep smiling
  • #1,473
  • Jul 23, 2010 3:20pm Jul 23, 2010 3:20pm
AHHH YES !!

Good weekend to you all too.

  • #1,474
  • Jul 24, 2010 5:35am Jul 24, 2010 5:35am
Quoting Misterdaz
Maybe my charts are off too...

From my experience gained mixing with you good folks (except BarTstop) I have learnt to look for a reason for price to head the other way, sometimes they are not easy to spot, perhaps due to skill but that can be gained. Thom I looked at GU on a 4h chart earlier today and also looked for the candle body pivot around the 61.8 (this I have learned). I looked on all timescales and could find no valid conclusion. I stuck to my trusted rule of if you are not sure get out or don't do it so I have no loss. Missed trades...
Here's my perspective.

SK
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2307 4hr gu.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #1,475
  • Jul 24, 2010 6:02am Jul 24, 2010 6:02am
After a disastrous week two weeks ago, it's going to be a long climb back .
Anyway, this is what I am interested in, for next week.

SK
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2407 4hr gu.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #1,476
  • Jul 24, 2010 11:18am Jul 24, 2010 11:18am
Egg,

Oh yeah. Chart! LOL!

This one explains my view. Will this setup always work? Testing will tell.

Then again; maybe I'm just loopy! We will see.



Cheers all,
Bud Fox
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: egg chart.gif Size: 17 KB
Jeremiah WAS a bullfrog.
  • #1,477
  • Jul 24, 2010 6:40pm Jul 24, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Maybe my charts are off too...

From my experience gained mixing with you good folks (except BarTstop) I have learnt to look for a reason for price to head the other way, sometimes they are not easy to spot, perhaps due to skill but that can be gained. Thom I looked at GU on a 4h chart earlier today and also looked for the candle body pivot around the 61.8 (this I have learned). I looked on all timescales and could find no valid conclusion. I stuck to my trusted rule of if you are not sure get out or don't do it so I have no loss. Missed trades...
Honestly... when i am going against the trend... Ie currently going short in a long... I do muck it up.. so i have learned to have a 6th sense ie that GU short that felt wrong... who knows... could be right but i saved myself a lot of drawdown and made a bunch of lucre going long on GY and EU... so even if it is right and collapses after the re evaluation of the stress test numbers over the weekend.. I am ahead of the game.

TK
  • #1,478
  • Jul 25, 2010 5:25pm Jul 25, 2010 5:25pm
Hello, I hope you all had good weekends. I was fiddling with cable over the weekend, still looking at that downswing, I'll leave it alone after this post but I wanted to share what I had found.

I went down to a 15 min to find more s/r. I found the following 3 moves which work for me.

1. Price goes down. Completes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_a.JPG Size: 85 KB


2. Price goes up. Completes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_b.JPG Size: 86 KB


3. Price goes down (this is a 30 min to fit all the price in). Completes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_c.JPG Size: 103 KB


This could be all wrong but it makes better sense of that down swing to me.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #1,479
  • Jul 26, 2010 6:46am Jul 26, 2010 6:46am
2 trades on the Aud/Usd one hour chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,480
  • Edited 9:06am Jul 26, 2010 8:40am | Edited 9:06am
You about Thom? I currently have this 4H fib on EU, I hit exactly the same spot on 1H. We seem to be in a completed long fib for the last swing up. I know you (Thom) recently posted a completed short fib on that last swing down. Anyway, is this what you are seeing?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu260710.png Size: 18 KB


MD.
Keep smiling
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