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Daily Chart Trading Discussion

  • #21
  • Jul 22, 2010 5:27pm Jul 22, 2010 5:27pm
HI Tradpat,

U still holding Euro/USD long?

Eyeing USD/JPY.

Possible higher swing low. Would have liked to see a positive close PB. May get a retrace on the pin if a base is in place. Time will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #22
  • Jul 22, 2010 5:52pm Jul 22, 2010 5:52pm
Quoting uncle gromit
HI Tradpat,

U still holding Euro/USD long?

Eyeing USD/JPY.

Possible higher swing low. Would have liked to see a positive close PB. May get a retrace on the pin if a base is in place. Time will tell.
Hi gromit

No. I already closed E-U.
I am watching it for a break 1.300 and candlestick above EMA8.

Similarly I am waiting for a break on TL on U-J. Based on S Nixon's PA, the candlestick is rather closed to TL, and so avoid trading.

Happy pipping.

tpat
Attached Images
  • #23
  • Jul 22, 2010 6:19pm Jul 22, 2010 6:19pm
The usd/jpy, is a FAKEY setup, that is a false break of an inside bar. anyone who went short on the break of yesterdays inside bar is now getting screwed over, and will probably stop out, i think a pop up is likely, im not going to take the trade because of the trend. However i think this has legs, good luck.
  • #24
  • Jul 22, 2010 8:17pm Jul 22, 2010 8:17pm
Hope your G-U is profiting, highlander.
I am monitoring it again for long when the candlestick is above MA.

My gold went against me. It now looks in consolidation. Pending the PA formation to take the next move.

tpat
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  • #25
  • Jul 24, 2010 3:20am Jul 24, 2010 3:20am
Buy entry filled overnight Thursday.
Stop now at break even.
+55 so far.
Open target.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.gif Size: 19 KB
Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #26
  • Jul 24, 2010 4:06am Jul 24, 2010 4:06am
Quoting uncle gromit
Buy entry filled overnight Thursday.
Stop now at break even.
+55 so far.
Open target.
Good work, i didnt take this, but i had a feeling it would come off, now lets hope it goes all the way to your TP.
  • #27
  • Jul 24, 2010 4:23am Jul 24, 2010 4:23am
Quoting highlander2
Good work, i didnt take this, but i had a feeling it would come off, now lets hope it goes all the way to your TP.
Thanks Highlander.

Such a low risk trade with a pullback entry. No guarantee it would get filled though. Now that it has, and the fact I can not lose, its a watch and wait. 1st problem area above is double day lows at 88.00.
Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #28
  • Jul 24, 2010 5:34am Jul 24, 2010 5:34am
yes the pull back is always best when it happens, can be frustrating though at times, but i think its the best method in the long run.

Can i ask what your strategy is for BE stops?
up untill now i have basically "set and forget" trades but this is running into trouble at the moment. I had 190 pips this week that turned into 2 losers, this will need to be changed, i will probably have to go back to moving to BE at 1x risk, especially since i will be increasing my lot sizes in a few weeks.

thanks.
  • #29
  • Jul 24, 2010 8:51am Jul 24, 2010 8:51am
Hi

I short U-CAD based on PA (arrows) and RL.
It may bounce up at SL next week?

Gromit & Highlander
Any comment on setting SL &TP? (I am weak on this subject)

Thanks
tpat
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #30
  • Jul 24, 2010 9:41am Jul 24, 2010 9:41am
Interesting.
  • #31
  • Jul 24, 2010 11:33am Jul 24, 2010 11:33am
Quoting highlander2
yes the pull back is always best when it happens, can be frustrating though at times, but i think its the best method in the long run.

Can i ask what your strategy is for BE stops?
up untill now i have basically "set and forget" trades but this is running into trouble at the moment. I had 190 pips this week that turned into 2 losers, this will need to be changed, i will probably have to go back to moving to BE at 1x risk, especially since i will be increasing my lot sizes in a few weeks.

thanks.
Since I am long, this can only be considered a counter trend trade. At this stage I do not know if the potential double bottom will turn into a full blown reversal. For that reason I will move to BE at the earliest possible stage whilst still giving the trade every chance to move in my favour. As potential blocks to price lay not far above protecting capital is vital. On a with trend trade or retracement to a main trend I can use slightly easier MM as the odds will be more in my favour.
When assessing the criteria for a trade I always work backwards. A brief overview follows :-

1) Will I be with trend or countertrend?
2) If I take this trade where will my stop go?
3) How large will the stop be?
4) How far away is the 1st potential TP area? This is critical. Be realistic.
5) Am I getting at least 2 to 1 on my money if price reaches my target?

Finally have a clear plan of action if price does not move far enough or quickly enough in your favour. Adjust your stop accordingly.

Hope this helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #32
  • Jul 24, 2010 11:37am Jul 24, 2010 11:37am
Quoting tradpat
Hi

I short U-CAD based on PA (arrows) and RL.
It may bounce up at SL next week?

Gromit & Highlander
Any comment on setting SL &TP? (I am weak on this subject)

Thanks
tpat
tpat,

Consider working backwards. See my post regarding USD/JPY.
Hope this helps.
Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #33
  • Jul 24, 2010 11:51am Jul 24, 2010 11:51am
Hi gromit

Agreed. I see it is a counter trend because candlesticks still below MA55+89 & TL. (Pls. correct me if I am wrong)

I will take long next week because
- When necessary MACD is used to see divergence signal, as shown.
- The pin bar
- Double bottom sign

tpat
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  • #34
  • Jul 24, 2010 11:53am Jul 24, 2010 11:53am
Quoting uncle gromit
tpat,

Consider working backwards. See my post regarding USD/JPY.
Hope this helps.
OK. I will try, gromit. Thanks, tpat (got to chow... zzz... 12:53 a.m. in Malaysia)
  • #35
  • Jul 25, 2010 10:51am Jul 25, 2010 10:51am
Hi

IMO, U-CHF has the similar PA as U-J.

tpat
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  • #36
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:12am Jul 25, 2010 11:12am
Hi Traders

I have a long on A-U based on break.
P.S. As I am a newbie, I welcome comments for improvement.

tpat
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  • #37
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:21am Jul 25, 2010 11:21am
Hi Tradpat, I like the discussion here on the Daily charts. My view is that UJ is a CT trade because as you mentioned clear divergence on MACD. Another reason I will trade against the trend here is that price action is in an area of weekly demand (green lines). I do not sell in an area of weekly demand or buy in an area of weekly supply. I will wait for a break above the 87.60 area, a pullback and enter near the demand line or on very strong bullish PA. Just my 2 cents.

Deep
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  • #38
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:23am Jul 25, 2010 11:23am
I bought the US/CHHF at the absolute bottom, was watching it like a vulture for quite a while. The UJ is a tougher one, I haven't done ANYTHING with it yet. But sure am watching it closely.
  • #39
  • Jul 25, 2010 6:59pm Jul 25, 2010 6:59pm
Quoting deepsouth
Hi Tradpat, I like the discussion here on the Daily charts. My view is that UJ is a CT trade because as you mentioned clear divergence on MACD. Another reason I will trade against the trend here is that price action is in an area of weekly demand (green lines). I do not sell in an area of weekly demand or buy in an area of weekly supply. I will wait for a break above the 87.60 area, a pullback and enter near the demand line or on very strong bullish PA. Just my 2 cents.

Deep
Hi deepsouth

I appreciate your inputs.
Pls. do drop by often to advise.

What MAs you?
I will try to pick up weekly chart analysis like yours.
You are very good.

tpat
  • #40
  • Jul 25, 2010 7:04pm Jul 25, 2010 7:04pm
Quoting steroidman
I bought the US/CHHF at the absolute bottom, was watching it like a vulture for quite a while. The UJ is a tougher one, I haven't done ANYTHING with it yet. But sure am watching it closely.
Hi steriodman

Good for your U-Chf.
I already long U-J and U-Chf this morning.
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