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Silent Service Method

  • #9,921
  • Jul 22, 2010 3:04pm Jul 22, 2010 3:04pm
breakout with a bullish engulfing bar on german beiersdorf on weekly.
edit: i know that there is one more day to trade. :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #9,922
  • Jul 22, 2010 4:06pm Jul 22, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting calderone
I haven't seen anything that makes sense lately.
The 50% retrace of any move is a very strong point of resistance/support. It trumps plenty of other signals including as we've seen this week weekly pin bars
  • #9,923
  • Jul 22, 2010 4:14pm Jul 22, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting jicjoc
The 50% retrace of any move is a very strong point of resistance/support. It trumps plenty of other signals including as we've seen this week weekly pin bars
Not arguing with you.....just on phone.....post a few charts if you get a chance.
  • #9,924
  • Jul 22, 2010 4:48pm Jul 22, 2010 4:48pm
Well when i look at charts i look at moves. Waveforms. Up moves and down moves with usually pins at extremes.
Each move has significant support/resistance at its 50% retrace. So significant that some traders see the market as bull/bear depending on whether it can penetrate the 50%

And Nzdusd was a perfect example.

And upmove of 11 days with 2 days retrace to 50% giving a doji which was an entry long. This was inspite of the weekly bear pin
The weekly chart here is busy but i dont trade from it. I would trade from the daily which has much less going on, and look at PA - pins, doji, cloud cover etc for entry. Its just james16 stuff with steve nison plus fibs from bobokus. Pity he doesnt still post here. Phenomenal trader/teacher

Hope this makes sense

Its why i entered long on gbpcad last week for a good 2.5% profit, why im long nzdusd. Why im so hesitant to short eurusd (as seen today), and why i'll go long on eurcad tomorrow.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd - daily.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #9,925
  • Edited 5:35pm Jul 22, 2010 4:52pm | Edited 5:35pm
Quoting Low
I decided to allocate 2% to the kiwi, the first 1% is underwater like yours, the second got stopped out overnight, as I was trying to keep the risk low and short at a better price with a smaller SL if the opportunity came up.

I'd like to short it again, but I will wait and see if the first one gets into profit or goes the way of the dodo.
I entered the NZD short as well guys after seeing what you are seeing

My only real concern is the S&P at the moment/Dow channel that CW posted earlier.

If we get that channel upside broken on the DOW, then we are likely to see 1150 or slightly higher on the S&P. This would push the USD index push down into the 79-80 level if that happens.

The DXY around that level would translate into the AUD and NZD putting on at least a couple of big figures to the upside and probably testing their recent highs. I am starting to think I will exit this trade on a small loss and look for a higher entry with a resting sell order just below that weekly pinbar to catch a strong move lower in the mean time given the previous weekly pin bar top has yet to be broken.

What are your thoughts on this? I don't like exiting trades early however with it now above the 61.8 fib retracement on the weekly chart it has opened us up to a retracement to the 73.00-76.50 area depending which high it's working off at the moment.

Cheers.
  • #9,926
  • Jul 22, 2010 5:51pm Jul 22, 2010 5:51pm
I would be very wary of getting involved in the EUR until at least noon NY time tomorrow. Why? That's when the fake stress test comes out. It should move the markets.....even if it's a sell on the news kind of event. Of course, it's also a Friday.....not the best day for new set ups normally.

Of course, if the stress test has bad news - it's a no brainer.
  • #9,927
  • Jul 23, 2010 3:43am Jul 23, 2010 3:43am
the rocket has started .....

+ 2,44% , last 48,37 euro.

moved stopp to break-even + 10 cent.



Quoting aserbfx
breakout with a bullish engulfing bar on german beiersdorf on weekly.
edit: i know that there is one more day to trade. :-)
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #9,928
  • Jul 23, 2010 5:26am Jul 23, 2010 5:26am
Quoting aserbfx
the rocket has started .....

+ 2,44% , last 48,37 euro.

moved stopp to break-even + 10 cent.
Nice trade mate. Are you trading these on the NY exchange or on the DAX?

Also, are you trading with CFDs or simply trading stocks with a normal broker?

I only have access to a few US bluechips via FxPro atm but am looking for alternatives to give me a wider range of tradable instruments. IG markets appear ok on first glance but interested to hear of other options.

Cheers.
  • #9,929
  • Jul 23, 2010 6:09am Jul 23, 2010 6:09am
i trade the stock on the german xetra (electronic exchange).

you can try interactive brokers. they have a wide range of tradeable stocks, futures, even forex and so on.

i think clockword is using them, too.

Quoting 4xAddict
Nice trade mate. Are you trading these on the NY exchange or on the DAX?

Also, are you trading with CFDs or simply trading stocks with a normal broker?

I only have access to a few US bluechips via FxPro atm but am looking for alternatives to give me a wider range of tradable instruments. IG markets appear ok on first glance but interested to hear of other options.

Cheers.
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #9,930
  • Jul 23, 2010 7:19am Jul 23, 2010 7:19am
Quoting aserbfx
i trade the stock on the german xetra (electronic exchange).

you can try interactive brokers. they have a wide range of tradeable stocks, futures, even forex and so on.

i think clockword is using them, too.
Yes, I am using Interactive Brokers. They have something like 80 markets to trade, including futures markets.

Since they are direct connections - all stocks in those markets are able to be traded naturally.
  • #9,931
  • Jul 23, 2010 7:38am Jul 23, 2010 7:38am
jicjoc,

It makes perfect sense.

I was short, but exited with a small (+39) profit before reversing. I exited the long for + 119 because of strong SR at 0.7300. I exited early because I was not convinced that it had the momentum to make it to 0.7300.

I don't use the fibs the way that you do, but I have added the 21 EMA to my arsenal of indicators. It works in much the same way as your 50% fib, acting as SR during the impulse and correction waves.

I have attached a chart with some notes.

J

Quoting jicjoc
Well when i look at charts i look at moves. Waveforms. Up moves and down moves with usually pins at extremes.
Each move has significant support/resistance at its 50% retrace. So significant that some traders see the market as bull/bear depending on whether it can penetrate the 50%

And Nzdusd was a perfect example.

And upmove of 11 days with 2 days retrace to 50% giving a doji which was an entry long. This was inspite of the weekly bear pin
The weekly chart here is busy but i dont trade from it. I would trade from the daily which has much less...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD Trade.jpg Size: 138 KB
  • #9,932
  • Jul 23, 2010 8:46am Jul 23, 2010 8:46am
Quoting 4xAddict
Nice trade mate. Are you trading these on the NY exchange or on the DAX?

Also, are you trading with CFDs or simply trading stocks with a normal broker?

I only have access to a few US bluechips via FxPro atm but am looking for alternatives to give me a wider range of tradable instruments. IG markets appear ok on first glance but interested to hear of other options.

Cheers.
IG Markets will charge you the spread again every night on rollover.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,933
  • Jul 23, 2010 8:50am Jul 23, 2010 8:50am
Very Nice set up on GBP/CHF yesterday. Pinbar right at S/R zone. At the bottom of a range-bound market.

Thanks Chris:
Attached Image
  • #9,934
  • Jul 23, 2010 8:50am Jul 23, 2010 8:50am
Quoting jharvey407
jicjoc,

It makes perfect sense.

I was short, but exited with a small (+39) profit before reversing. I exited the long for + 119 because of strong SR at 0.7300. I exited early because I was not convinced that it had the momentum to make it to 0.7300.

I don't use the fibs the way that you do, but I have added the 21 EMA to my arsenal of indicators. It works in much the same way as your 50% fib, acting as SR during the impulse and correction waves.

I have attached a chart with some notes.

J
Pick a number between 3 and 400, put that MA on a chart and I bet you will find that it acts as s/r, whatever the number. The problem with MA's for s/r is that they aren't as reliable as they first appear, you can't really use the information. I'd be wary of indicator creep, just one more as a "filter".

Not knocking what you're doing, just expressing my opinion, if it works for you then why not use it?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,935
  • Jul 23, 2010 8:53am Jul 23, 2010 8:53am
Quoting InfinitySL
Very Nice set up on GBP/CHF yesterday. Pinbar right at S/R zone. At the bottom of a range-bound market.

Thanks Chris:
Attachment
If it looks the same on the weekly chart tonight I'm taking that long. Gbpjpy looks similar but slightly less defined and the yen is too volatile, who knows what will happen next?

I like the look of cadchf and cadjpy for longs too. Sgdjpy looks nice as well.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,936
  • Jul 23, 2010 9:22am Jul 23, 2010 9:22am
Quoting aserbfx
the rocket has started .....

+ 2,44% , last 48,37 euro.

moved stopp to break-even + 10 cent.
in the meantime, the rocket has nearly crashed.
only up +0,91%. i am out with half of the position, the other half will be stopped at BE or at 49,88.

but maybe, here is one more for you guys...
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #9,937
  • Jul 23, 2010 9:22am Jul 23, 2010 9:22am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Pick a number between 3 and 400, put that MA on a chart and I bet you will find that it acts as s/r, whatever the number. The problem with MA's for s/r is that they aren't as reliable as they first appear, you can't really use the information. I'd be wary of indicator creep, just one more as a "filter".

Not knocking what you're doing, just expressing my opinion, if it works for you then why not use it?
True, however it is more reliable if you use an MA (20/21 EMA/SMA) that is widely used by professional traders!
  • #9,938
  • Jul 23, 2010 10:15am Jul 23, 2010 10:15am
Quoting euro_dude
True, however it is more reliable if you use an MA (20/21 EMA/SMA) that is widely used by professional traders!
Or 50, or 200, or even 100. How about the 365?

And thus is the biggest issue with MA's.....
  • #9,939
  • Jul 23, 2010 10:58am Jul 23, 2010 10:58am
Yeah, I totally missed that one.

Too bad.

Quoting InfinitySL
Very Nice set up on GBP/CHF yesterday. Pinbar right at S/R zone. At the bottom of a range-bound market.

Thanks Chris:
Attachment
  • #9,940
  • Jul 23, 2010 10:59am Jul 23, 2010 10:59am
Quoting clockwork71
Or 50, or 200, or even 100. How about the 365?

And thus is the biggest issue with MA's.....
Depends how you use them.

I have 100,200 and 365 on all my charts but I use the mainly for trend following.

What I look for is PA around any of my MA's - For example in the USDCHF down trend of the last few weeks I look for price to pull back and touch the MA. If it fails at 100 I add to the position if not I don't - then I watch the 200 then the 365.

If the 100 gets me in I use the 200 as a stop.

Its not quite that cut and dried - much more discretion but thats the gist.
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