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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #229,541
  • Jul 22, 2010 5:01am Jul 22, 2010 5:01am
Quoting special0nefx
Lol, i'not brave. Brave is without sl. Good luck buddy. Thanks for vouch. Very Nice to have you here adn still . I miss Quecee , rgitt and donfriday. They are good mentor for me
Congratulation brooo
  • #229,542
  • Jul 22, 2010 5:03am Jul 22, 2010 5:03am
Quoting maanawi
Congratulation brooo
Thanks, there still lots to learn. Good luck
  • #229,543
  • Jul 22, 2010 7:35am Jul 22, 2010 7:35am
bad news for USD but nothing happen?
  • #229,544
  • Jul 22, 2010 8:14am Jul 22, 2010 8:14am
Quoting clientfx
bad news for USD but nothing happen?
data is mix.
continuing claims came in better than expected.

housing could be worse though.

bernanke still to talk again today .

stress test tomorrow. from europe

lot's of stuff. so GJ will take a lot of life from innocent traders
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #229,545
  • Jul 22, 2010 9:09am Jul 22, 2010 9:09am
Eur and GBP getting strength and may last for some months
poor USD under profits gain and investors worry to hold him
U-Yen seem to be strong as USD getting weaker

GU wait until H4 close above 15280 then you longs in safe side
GJ begin hunted from lows and expect 133.75

good luck to all
Alaa
  • #229,546
  • Jul 22, 2010 9:12am Jul 22, 2010 9:12am
Quoting grashid
Addicted to FX
  • #229,547
  • Jul 22, 2010 9:16am Jul 22, 2010 9:16am
Quoting Powerm@n
lol
G
  • #229,548
  • Jul 22, 2010 9:46am Jul 22, 2010 9:46am
im done for today and closed my GJ long depend on up trend bouncing on EY
now rest time..
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  • #229,549
  • Jul 22, 2010 1:15pm Jul 22, 2010 1:15pm
2 charts for consideration. When the 4h and the Daily Tenkin (red) & Kijun (blue) lines merge almost as one and point down, the Kaboom should be close. Look at May 5 and watch for the same alignment to form.

An Ichi chart could be the canary in the coal mine of the beast.
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  • #229,550
  • Jul 22, 2010 1:24pm Jul 22, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting plucker01
.. When the 4h and the Daily Tenkin (red) & Kijun (blue) lines merge almost as one and point down, the Kaboom should be close...
where do you expect the Kaboom to go north or south?
  • #229,551
  • Jul 22, 2010 1:40pm Jul 22, 2010 1:40pm
Kaboom

Always goes south
  • #229,552
  • Jul 22, 2010 1:40pm Jul 22, 2010 1:40pm
I just try to understand Ichi Do you think it shows some drop in GY?
  • #229,553
  • Jul 22, 2010 1:51pm Jul 22, 2010 1:51pm
it's hard to say. if we only consider g-j, current area is clearly the support of the year, so it may go either way.

- down, through 131 area, meaning that main trend (yearly) would resume and we should see a lower low for the year, and even a possible retest of all times low.

- up, to 138/139 area, which is the resistance of current year; another decision point here, which will decide if we continue up or we go down to test support again.

now, for a better understanding of the situation, we should also look at g-u and u-j; what's going on there?

g-u first: well... looks like g-u is pushing against resistance (1.54/1.55 area), and it is actually the yearly resistance; a break here and we go up. but i have a hunch this won't happen now, so a more credible scenario would be a bounce down. where? to yearly support, of course: 1.47/1.48 area. if broken, down we go, to test the yearly low.

as for u-j, kind of the same situation: pushing down against yearly support (we just had a bounce last night from 86.40) but things are not looking good at all for bulls... maybe above this week's high, i would consider a rally; as for going up, well, there's yearly resistance @ 87.50 area.
long story short, u-j is more squeezed between key levels and current bias is to the downside.

what i'm trying to say is that most chances are for the downside; if g-u starts retracing, and u-j breaks through yearly support, then we may see a nice run down for g-j.

Quoting maanawi
where do you expect the Kaboom to go north or south?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #229,554
  • Jul 22, 2010 1:55pm Jul 22, 2010 1:55pm
as I see GY is close to the upper line of descending channel on H1 and H4, could it reinforce what Ichi shows?
thx
  • #229,555
  • Edited 3:07pm Jul 22, 2010 2:53pm | Edited 3:07pm
Interesting day. I remain short from the 133.7 region although took some profits on that 130.8 touch during London. (Hit that 161 fib so nicely!) I'd been targeting 130.5, and now feel 129.5 could be visited, although am not certain of the timeframe.

It's telling that the S&P is doing fantastically well, yet GY was only able to muster about 100 pips during the NY session, albeit achieving 250 pips distance on the day. Am thinking back to a 300 pip rise last week on S&P, yet GY is capped here around 133.2.

Appears sellers were prevalent on that rise, visible on the H1, M30 and M15, with fairly high volume on the latter two timeframes. Sterling weakness has not gone away IMO, although the EU bank tests are a wild card; it's difficult to predict reaction, and this rise on yens could be big boys positioning themselves.

Looks like the NY closing is dropping GY further, on S&P profit taking. Looking at the weekly chart, it's likely to be a clear pattern of successive of lows - 132.366 was last week's close, so let's see what the engineered bank tests bring. (Monthly looks even more bearish to me)

And lets not discount the value and negativity of Ben's testimony - these things do not work themselves out of the equity and fx systems in a day or two. Ben had little good to say. The shock value is yet to be tabulated against UJ, among other sectors. The USD among - other things - needs to hit bottom before we can head up, and that's not yet happened IMO.

Am not discounting the possibility of a August rally, but then badness for the fall. Good Luck to all - Friday is shaping up to be a wild ride!
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  • #229,556
  • Jul 22, 2010 3:00pm Jul 22, 2010 3:00pm
Thanks a lot scrat for explaining I adore you bro.

for me since you post the answer im looking at the chart trying to figure out any thing but its really seem to be difficult to me cause of the range taking power to fall from up and from down to up (X) any way SL is a must since we begin alerted about Kaboom and TP half open
I will review this another time.






Quoting Scrat
it's hard to say. if we only consider g-j, current area is clearly the support of the year, so it may go either way.

- down, through 131 area, meaning that main trend (yearly) would resume and we should see a lower low for the year, and even a possible retest of all times low.

- up, to 138/139 area, which is the resistance of current year; another decision point here, which will decide if we continue up or we go down to test support again.

now, for a better understanding of the situation, we should also look at g-u and u-j; what's going on there?...
  • #229,557
  • Jul 22, 2010 3:14pm Jul 22, 2010 3:14pm
Quoting Scrat
g-u first: well... looks like g-u is pushing against resistance (1.54/1.55 area), and it is actually the yearly resistance; a break here and we go up. but i have a hunch this won't happen now, so a more credible scenario would be a bounce down. where? to yearly support, of course: 1.47/1.48 area. if broken, down we go, to test the yearly low.

as for u-j, kind of the same situation: pushing down against yearly support (we just had a bounce last night from 86.40) but things are not looking good at all for bulls... maybe above this week's...
Very well summarized - these are of course the 2 key currencies to really look at when we're talking about GBPJPY. Thanks Scrat. And more I could not agree!
  • #229,558
  • Jul 22, 2010 4:06pm Jul 22, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting maanawi
where do you expect the Kaboom to go north or south?
Down
  • #229,559
  • Jul 22, 2010 4:15pm Jul 22, 2010 4:15pm
Scrat, you always have great information ... thanks!
  • #229,560
  • Jul 22, 2010 5:29pm Jul 22, 2010 5:29pm
no volume to trade
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