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vsa with Malcolm

  • #1,541
  • Jul 21, 2010 9:03am Jul 21, 2010 9:03am
Quoting Ronlizard
There's a suggestion that the price spike may have been caused by trader error in a Dutch bank.

what like that guy pressing the billion button in may on dj ....

more like a move to screw up everyone and grab a few stops.

aj has an interesting 15 min pattern forming , potential strength coming in on support that we saw in asia.

look for any further signs of strength

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  • #1,542
  • Jul 21, 2010 9:41am Jul 21, 2010 9:41am
http://www.forexlive.com/120246/all/...r-possibly-not

That was the story. Make of it what you will.
  • #1,543
  • Jul 21, 2010 9:50am Jul 21, 2010 9:50am
hi malc, thats a strong RUT, but daily is downtrend and hulls are red, background for 15min seem to be more weakness than strength? (i say this cos the uptrend on 15min is very steep up followed by slight down trend consisting of this RUT)

pls correct me if im wrong

appreciate your reply!

cheers,
Bethel

Quoting malcolmb14
what like that guy pressing the billion button in may on dj ....

more like a move to screw up everyone and grab a few stops.

aj has an interesting 15 min pattern forming , potential strength coming in on support that we saw in asia.

look for any further signs of strength

Attachment
  • #1,544
  • Jul 21, 2010 9:55am Jul 21, 2010 9:55am
Quoting mud3210
i see in some posts in other threads that we also have traders commenting on "effort to rise" is sign of strength, while some other say, it is sign of weakness...

So, i am assuming that to correctly confirm weather an "effort to rise" bar is a sign of strength/weakness, we have to take both the background and the...
My view of an effort to rise bar is that it shows potential weakness or strength. For strength, you need to see some confirming factor, such as a follow through bar, where the next bar carries on where the last bar left off, or if it is a push through supply, a low volume test to confirm the strength. It would show weakness if we had an effort to rise, but then no follow through, no tests, and/or a no demand/upthrust. That says SM tried to markup prices, but then changed their mind, and we can expect prices to fall soon.
  • #1,545
  • Jul 21, 2010 10:36am Jul 21, 2010 10:36am
Im in two trades this morn both on the ucad I'll share with everyone. Timeframe is 8 min one of my personal favs. Looking for a 1.0455 break.
I like this pair as it usually has violent moves inverse to the S&P.
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  • #1,546
  • Jul 21, 2010 10:57am Jul 21, 2010 10:57am
something is going on with aj .. looks like heavy accumulation

this could indicate with drops in s &p to 1075 ( major support ) we see massive reversal of s & p into close. ...

picked up a long 76.75 with 25 pip stop 100 pip tp

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  • #1,547
  • Jul 21, 2010 11:09am Jul 21, 2010 11:09am
Quoting daffy
My view of an effort to rise bar is that it shows potential weakness or strength. For strength, you need to see some confirming factor, such as a follow through bar, where the next bar carries on where the last bar left off, or if it is a push through supply, a low volume test to confirm the strength. It would show weakness if we had an effort to rise, but then no follow through, no tests, and/or a no demand/upthrust. That says SM tried to markup prices, but then changed their mind, and we can expect prices to fall soon.
BINGO

EFFORT to Rise is strength, if there is RESULT. That is rising prices. EFFORT to Rise is weakness, if there is no RESULT. That is, prices fall or move sideways.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #1,548
  • Jul 21, 2010 11:48am Jul 21, 2010 11:48am
Quoting daffy
My view of an effort to rise bar is that it shows potential weakness or strength. For strength, you need to see some confirming factor, such as a follow through bar, where the next bar carries on where the last bar left off, or if it is a push through supply, a low volume test to confirm the strength. It would show weakness if we had an effort to rise, but then no follow through, no tests, and/or a no demand/upthrust. That says SM tried to markup prices, but then changed their mind, and we can expect prices to fall soon.

Effort to rise

This is a wide spread up bar closing on the high on increased volume.

It is ALWAYS bullish.

If the volume is too high it could be potentially weak. However, in this case, it IS NOT an effort to rise bar.

Checking the results of an effort to rise bar is important. If we had a sign of strength and prices are rising then this adds to the strength. If we had a sign of strength but then prices dont rise much more, someone must be stopping it......SM. If SM are not interested in higher prices, there must be weakness arround.

The effort to rise bar itself tells us a bit about the market. The results from an effort to rise tells us more.
  • #1,549
  • Jul 21, 2010 1:18pm Jul 21, 2010 1:18pm
Markets going bonko, Big ben opened his mouth again.
  • #1,550
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:00pm Jul 21, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Im in two trades this morn both on the ucad I'll share with everyone. Timeframe is 8 min one of my personal favs. Looking for a 1.0455 break.
I like this pair as it usually has violent moves inverse to the S&P.

Got the 1.0455 break and more, Mr. Bernanke help me a bit on this one.
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  • #1,551
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:27pm Jul 21, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting malcolmb14
something is going on with aj .. looks like heavy accumulation

this could indicate with drops in s &p to 1075 ( major support ) we see massive reversal of s & p into close. ...

picked up a long 76.75 with 25 pip stop 100 pip tp

Attachment
so much for that .... that is what stops are for

Now that support 76.5 is broken looking for any up moves with no demands etc
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  • #1,552
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:44pm Jul 21, 2010 2:44pm
As Gavin would say, "the market is governed by laws". One of those laws is The Law of Effort vs. Result.

Testing is by far the most important of the low volume BUY signals. Despite that, or rather, because of that, tests become important SELL signals when we don't get the results a test should produce.

"Any testing that does not respond immediately with higher prices, or certainly during the next day or so, can be considered an indication of weakness. If it were a true sign of strength, the specialists or market makers would have stepped in and would be buying the market-the result of this professional support would be the beginning of an upward trending market." Tom Williams, MTM, p. 35.

"No immediate results from a previous test (i.e. no upward movement) can show weakness is present in a bear market. However, you should remain observant for a second test in stronger markets. If you can see what appears to be a successful test, the market-makers or specialists will also have seen this indication. If there is not an immediate up-move, or the up-move fails over several days (or bars, if on a shorter timeframes), this now becomes a sign of weakness. The professional money has not responded because at that moment they are still bearish." Tom Williams, MTM, p. 155.

Check out the chart below.

The first marked test is a good test, as the next candle is up (as is the one after that). But the market turns a down an trades lower. We fail to make a higher high than the LH marked and we see a dark (open>close) WRB that closes lower than the low of the test candle.

The test is the EFFORT even though the volume (activity) is low. Ideally the RESULT is higher prices. When we don't get the desired RESULT the EFFORT has failed and in this case signals further weakness. The Test did not fail because the next candle was up. Yet, the effort or intention of the Test failed to produce the anticipated outcome.

EDIT: I am reading the book (Master the Markets) again and I just love it when the pages come to life in the real market-They always do.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #1,553
  • Jul 21, 2010 6:40pm Jul 21, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting HiddenGap
As Gavin would say, "the market is governed by laws". One of those laws is The Law of Effort vs. Result.

Testing is by far the most important of the low volume BUY signals. Despite that, or rather, because of that, tests become important SELL signals when we don't get the results a test should produce.

"Any testing that does not respond immediately with higher prices, or certainly during the next day or so, can be considered an indication of weakness. If it were a true sign of strength, the specialists or market...
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  • #1,554
  • Edited 8:18pm Jul 21, 2010 6:47pm | Edited 8:18pm
Quoting Intel
Effort to rise

This is a wide spread up bar closing on the high on increased volume.

It is ALWAYS bullish.

If the volume is too high it could be potentially weak....

I have to agree with this. The actual effort to rise bar is BULLISH, it is a sign of strength IF the result is higher prices. If prices don't rise, then it's a sign of weakness.

In terms of trying to read the background strength or weakness, successful effort to rise bars are an alert, because they are often followed by high volume up bars either with narrowing spread or wide spread but closing on the middle or low - which are signs of hidden selling - and thus weakness.

It's about what is likely to happen next. If your looking at an effort to rise bar or a few in a row, you've already missed the up move. Time to look for the next signs of weakness or strength and look for a confirmed entry on the next move.

f451
  • #1,555
  • Jul 21, 2010 9:10pm Jul 21, 2010 9:10pm
hey what do you guys think about EJ? There is strenght in the background but there is this top reversal. Wait for more strenght?
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  • #1,556
  • Jul 21, 2010 9:39pm Jul 21, 2010 9:39pm
Tough market right now. What do you guys and gals think about this entry (Euro/USD 5 min)?
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #1,557
  • Jul 21, 2010 9:51pm Jul 21, 2010 9:51pm
Hit, it, I just did. Look at all the accumulation. Going higher.
  • #1,558
  • Jul 21, 2010 10:22pm Jul 21, 2010 10:22pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Tough market right now. What do you guys and gals think about this entry (Euro/USD 5 min)?

Its the asian session on a tight range, I think the entry from a VSA perspective is a great one but I would be keeping that stop real tight.
  • #1,559
  • Jul 21, 2010 10:44pm Jul 21, 2010 10:44pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Tough market right now. What do you guys and gals think about this entry (Euro/USD 5 min)?
seems eu is stuck on 1.2750 , would not be surprised to see London sell it again down into 1.2600 , at least 1.2700

60 min we did see strong volume on the down move ... but odd we have barely moved up.

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  • #1,560
  • Jul 22, 2010 4:17am Jul 22, 2010 4:17am
Quoting HiddenGap
Tough market right now. What do you guys and gals think about this entry (Euro/USD 5 min)?
Did you take it?

Did you get stopped out or did you have your SL low enough?
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