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vsa with Malcolm

  • #1,521
  • Jul 21, 2010 1:07am Jul 21, 2010 1:07am
Quoting f451
One thing that is important to distinguish is the difference between possible weakness or strength and confirmed weakness or strength in the background.

effort to rise bars are possible weakness - especially if we see several wide spread up bars BUT we can only confirm our assessment of weakness in the background when we determine that there was high volume selling into those up bars - i.e. the spread narrows on a high volume up bar....

I am sorry, I will have to disagree with you there. I think you are getting the whole thing mixed up. Effort to rise is not potential weakness. Effort to rise is potential strength. Conversely, effort to fall is not potential strength, effort to fall is potential weakness.
  • #1,522
  • Jul 21, 2010 1:10am Jul 21, 2010 1:10am
thank you once again =D

cheers,
Bethel

Quoting malcolmb14
on the daily futures we did get a top reversal set up that could have indicated weakness however it seems that for now GU down moves are on low volume , almost test like.

hulls is green and according to my one rule I am not allowed to sell against the trend ( assuming you want to sell on a daily time frame ) of course on lower time frames you can play counter trend plays against the daily

1.5200 seems to be the critical area of s/r .

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  • #1,523
  • Jul 21, 2010 1:15am Jul 21, 2010 1:15am
i see, ok, thanks chaos!, digesting it now, i pm-ing you, haha

thanks,
bethel
Quoting supremeChaos
Bethel,
i think f451 is referring to the 9th/10th bar from the right.
the volume in those bars were above average. (down bar then a mini reverse upthrust)

u base strength/weakness on a number of bars. this is a M15 chart so basing background on just 3 bars does not make good sense, IMHO.
base background on previous session/s.

we are still in a range. Asian session still on, so price might not yet be ready to take a direction.
personally, i think strength is still in the background... for now. but it can change any time soon. what's important...
  • #1,524
  • Jul 21, 2010 1:54am Jul 21, 2010 1:54am
Quoting wh1zz0
I am sorry, I will have to disagree with you there. I think you are getting the whole thing mixed up. Effort to rise is not potential weakness. Effort to rise is potential strength. Conversely, effort to fall is not potential strength, effort to fall is potential weakness.
I understand what you're saying here. You can see effort to rise as strength. But only if it's happening *right now*. From the perspective of what has happened, and what is likely to happen next, it is *potential* weakness.

Effort to rise is an up move occurring - after that up move has finished what then? Possible weakness if the up move has been exhausted. BUT - we need to see selling into that up move to confirm what the big boys are doing. You only have *confirmed* weakness when you can confirm hidden selling into an up bar.

cheers
f451
  • #1,525
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:20am Jul 21, 2010 2:20am
15mins 100pips and 15mins turn half woo keep a side
  • #1,526
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:32am Jul 21, 2010 2:32am
Quoting popo
15mins 100pips and 15mins turn half woo keep a side
Stopping Volume + Key Reversal on S/D zone (SM held this up). Effort to rise now.
  • #1,527
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:36am Jul 21, 2010 2:36am
This price action is very annoying. Personally, I have no feel as to what's going on.
  • #1,528
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:41am Jul 21, 2010 2:41am
There's a suggestion that the price spike may have been caused by trader error in a Dutch bank.
  • #1,529
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:46am Jul 21, 2010 2:46am
Quoting wh1zz0
Stopping Volume + Key Reversal on S/D zone (SM held this up). Effort to rise now.
GU:If you look M5 chart you could see 40min prior to spike that SM started to go short: prior to that was buying climax...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #1,530
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:57am Jul 21, 2010 2:57am
Quoting mima
If you look M5 chart you could see 40min prior to spike that SM started to go short: prior to that was buying climax...
Now that's the question. I looked at it as Effort to rise rather than buying climax because the candle you refer to as buying climax closed above yesterday's highs and price was also in my buy zone. But what happened was that I spotted the KRB (key reversal bar) next which is an instance of what I just mentioned in previous post as a good sign of failed effort to rise. If it was right on the open of London I would have gone short.

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  • #1,531
  • Jul 21, 2010 3:04am Jul 21, 2010 3:04am
Personally, because of the upcoming news I would rather wait.

Secondly, I might not even touch GU again because it has almost reached its daily range. Not saying it can't go further but I'd be rather willing to look for a long on the EU if we see 1.2870 area hold knowing fully well that we have strength in the background.
  • #1,532
  • Jul 21, 2010 3:05am Jul 21, 2010 3:05am
It wasn't a buying climax. It was a mark-up on fairly low volume into a known area of previous resistance. I don't see anything in the chart to suggest that the spike down was anything other than an anomaly. Otherwise, why has price reurned to its previous level so quickly?
  • #1,533
  • Jul 21, 2010 3:26am Jul 21, 2010 3:26am
Quoting Ronlizard
There's a suggestion that the price spike may have been caused by trader error in a Dutch bank.
Maybe I'm naive. Very odd price action, whatever it was.
  • #1,534
  • Jul 21, 2010 3:27am Jul 21, 2010 3:27am
Quoting f451
One thing that is important to distinguish is the difference between possible weakness or strength and confirmed weakness or strength in the background.

effort to rise bars are possible weakness - especially if we see several wide spread up bars BUT we can only confirm our assessment of weakness in the background when we determine that there was high volume selling into those up bars - i.e. the spread narrows on a high volume up bar....
Quoting wh1zz0
I am sorry, I will have to disagree with you there. I think you are getting the whole thing mixed up. Effort to rise is not potential weakness. Effort to rise is potential strength. Conversely, effort to fall is not potential strength, effort to fall is potential weakness.
i see in some posts in other threads that we also have traders commenting on "effort to rise" is sign of strength, while some other say, it is sign of weakness...

So, i am assuming that to correctly confirm weather an "effort to rise" bar is a sign of strength/weakness, we have to take both the background and the bar volumes into consideration.... and not "guess what sign is this bar representing" based on a single "effort to rise" bar...

... by looking at just 1 bar in isolation we cannot conclude this "effort to rise" is a sign of weakness nor strength..

(pls correct me if i am wrong...?)
  • #1,535
  • Jul 21, 2010 3:29am Jul 21, 2010 3:29am
[quote=wh1zz0;3888671]Personally, because of the upcoming news I would rather wait.

Secondly, I might not even touch GU again because it has almost reached its daily


eu still unclear for long in hourly tf every strange that storck have a good rise but nothing following that for weeks
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  • #1,536
  • Jul 21, 2010 4:25am Jul 21, 2010 4:25am
but we have to have confirmation.. it seems buying climax...

please be aware that, we are talking in terms of relativeness, and we have times there 200-300 pips down move just after increasing volume with narrow down bars.. or something seems buying climax..

all these 2 100 down and 70 up move may have meaning "to paralize public"..

who can dare after 50 pip down move for sell, or 80 pip down move for buy ?

nobody...

something nasty going around... lets see...

cheers...
  • #1,537
  • Jul 21, 2010 4:30am Jul 21, 2010 4:30am
as if, sm has lots of plans .. short term, intermediate, long term... or whatsoever..

and when short and intermediate terms plans coincide, then, it is impossible to predict antything, and where all indis collapsed as well as all other strageties..

cause, it is impossible to know when sm execute it...

all these are my some strange theories,

but just wanna share...

finally where we come to money management-risk reward ratios etc. which has to be followed strictly and i have to learn..

cheers
  • #1,538
  • Edited 4:49am Jul 21, 2010 4:32am | Edited 4:49am
Fixed now. It was a little more complicated than I thought.
Works pretty well on timeframes under 1HR, and does help show when there is high volume activity in the asian session particularly.

Treatment of the overlaps between sessions is a bit kludgey. I have classed the european/usa session overlap as european session, which is probably the preferred way to do it.

Enter your session start and end times using integers based on 24 hr clock instead of strings now (24 = 0).

Someone may wish to play with classing the session overlaps as their own "special" sessions and do like with like comparison with these - modify the function Session(datetime dt) to include them if you wish.

cheers
f451
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 BetterVolume 1.4 plus Session Average.mq4   7 KB | 446 downloads
  • #1,539
  • Jul 21, 2010 7:13am Jul 21, 2010 7:13am
Quoting egkid
Welcome back mal
Morning all
this what i see on my system, What VSA Say?
e/u down 1.2770
g/u stuck
Edit: g/u but expecting breakout next few H
Good e/u 1.2790 (100 ++ drop since my post which 6h ago)
Now shorts Take care
  • #1,540
  • Jul 21, 2010 7:24am Jul 21, 2010 7:24am
from 0 to 30 pips to 0 to 10 pips n i got out due to hulls turning green, this is an immediate sharing after exitting.

do not be like me cos hulls actually turned red n green, n i exit the moment i saw green, shld wait after this 15min to c if its red or green b4 proceeding...just a sharing on my part, sigh, need to learn about sl n tps....

happy pipin guys!
Bethel
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