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  • #1,501
  • Jul 20, 2010 7:14pm Jul 20, 2010 7:14pm
How does one VSA master decipher this?

All of these mountains of volume are created during the busier London/US sessions. Seems it's a fairly consistent recurring pattern.
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  • #1,502
  • Jul 20, 2010 7:18pm Jul 20, 2010 7:18pm
Quoting redevo
How does one VSA master decipher this?

All of these mountains of volume are created during the busier London/US sessions. Seems it's a fairly consistent recurring pattern.
Not a master but I think you answered your own question. The London/US overlap is almost always the highest volume period of the day, everyday. Asian is slowest, etc...
  • #1,503
  • Jul 20, 2010 7:24pm Jul 20, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting TC East
Not a master but I think you answered your own question. The London/US overlap is almost always the highest volume period of the day, everyday. Asian is slowest, etc...
Yes I know that, but how do you decipher (for example) whether it's climactic? Seems hard to read when the same/similar pattern occurs over and over again during these periods.
Speculator is just a fancy word for gambler
  • #1,504
  • Jul 20, 2010 7:32pm Jul 20, 2010 7:32pm
Seems to be a timeframe thing. The 4hr charts are very similar. Are we supposed to say normalize the volume in our heads or is VSA more suited to lower time frames (i.e. 5-15 min?).
Speculator is just a fancy word for gambler
  • #1,505
  • Jul 20, 2010 7:33pm Jul 20, 2010 7:33pm
Quoting redevo
Yes I know that, but how do you decipher (for example) whether it's climactic? Seems hard to read when the same/similar pattern occurs over and over again during these periods.
Oh ok sorry. I think dropping down a timeframe or two will help to see if it's climatic action or not. For me personally, I prefer to use the 15 and 30 min to see things like that. On how to see if any bar(s) is climatic in general, I'd better leave that to the better teachers here...

Edit: My preference is the smaller TF's, but 60 min I still like to look at. I kind of think the 4 hour is useless though, as the 4 hour candles overlap sessions too much...
  • #1,506
  • Jul 20, 2010 7:40pm Jul 20, 2010 7:40pm
Quoting TC East
Oh ok sorry. I think dropping down a timeframe or two will help to see if it's climatic action or not. For me personally, I prefer to use the 15 and 30 min to see things like that. On how to see if any bar(s) is climatic in general, I'd better leave that to the better teachers here...

Edit: My preference is the smaller TF's, but 60 min I still like to look at. I kind of think the 4 hour is useless though, as the 4 hour candles overlap sessions too much...
Cool thanks.
Speculator is just a fancy word for gambler
  • #1,507
  • Jul 20, 2010 10:06pm Jul 20, 2010 10:06pm
Hi malc, please help me with this, you mentioned that its a long here? on daily chart its in uptrend as well. =)

I got confused when i saw on the daily chart tt there is hidden selling and on 15min chart, the area where you mentioned is bull flag (i hope im drawing correctly), I interpreted it as weakness and planning to short against the major trend because i saw a 2 bar reversal on the daily even though its in an uptrend and hulls are green.

Will you help me with this? Most likely i will stay out because hulls r green n daily is uptrend, dangerous to short against it. yup...hope to hear your pro opinion as well as other senior traders! Thanks guys!

cheers,
Bethel

Quoting malcolmb14
Though i owuld post this nice 15 min chart GU

looks like we are getting a classic bull flag

1.5250 is major s/r on daily charts... as long as this holds or we get low volume testing just under it i expect the flag to break to the upside later in Asia / London ( London would be better)

My target on this trade is 170 pip

I will try and keep you updated if i get a hulls green alert

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  • #1,508
  • Jul 20, 2010 10:10pm Jul 20, 2010 10:10pm
greetings fellow traders, a potential short on GJ? IF it passes 133.203

correct me if im wrong, on daily, trend is down and past few days has ultra high volume indicating mostly hidden selling, on top of that, hulls are red now.

Please correct me if im wrong, thank you for your time.

warmest regards,
Bethel
  • #1,509
  • Jul 20, 2010 10:29pm Jul 20, 2010 10:29pm
i googled bull flag which was mentioned by malc earlier, http://www.thestockbandit.com/bull-flag/

so can i say that the bull flag failed? since it entered in to a range?

sorry for asking so many stupid questions, very impressed with how malc marries classical tech with vsa, so just wanna find out more, if i just used vsa at tt point in time when malc spotted the bull flag, will i be able to catch the longs? or will i still short? a bit confused ....or rather..very confused.

pls teach me

cheers,
Bethel
  • #1,510
  • Jul 20, 2010 10:38pm Jul 20, 2010 10:38pm
Quoting Bethel
Hi malc, please help me with this, you mentioned that its a long here? on daily chart its in uptrend as well. =)

I got confused when i saw on the daily chart tt there is hidden selling and on 15min chart, the area where you mentioned is...
Bethel, can you circle where you saw the 2-bar reversal? I don't see one

Here's how I see the chart you've posted:

in the background we had an effort to rise bars, with the climatic bar (first red volume spike) being an up bar, so potential weakness. we also see an upthrust into relative new highs shortly after. BUT - look what happened in response - rather than falling, price was knocked sideways into a small channel, and every time it dipped down to 5250 volume increased. Also we have signs of a buying (high volume given it was the asian session) on the eighth bar from the right edge of your chart. So this tends to suggest possible strength (resistance to lower prices), rather than weakness.

I wouldn't short now. I'd wait for frankfurt/london open and see if prices move down or if there is a real stopping volume followed by testing, with a bias to go long if you see stopping volume followed by a test. we are perhaps looking for another leg up in the current up trend.

remember, if it's not clear what is going on, you are protecting your account by NOT trading.

f451
  • #1,511
  • Edited 11:08pm Jul 20, 2010 10:52pm | Edited 11:08pm
One thing that is important to distinguish is the difference between possible weakness or strength and confirmed weakness or strength in the background.

effort to rise bars are possible weakness - especially if we see several wide spread up bars BUT we can only confirm our assessment of weakness in the background when we determine that there was high volume selling into those up bars - i.e. the spread narrows on a high volume up bar. This shows us that the Big Boys are selling - they see no likelihood of higher prices, so they are selling to establish a position or take profits.

This is why a selling climax or end of rising market bar are better confirmations of weakness than an effort to rise - because they include hidden selling. The hidden selling is your weakness.

the reverse is true for strength - effort to fall bars are signs of potential strength - not actual strength in the background - the market could still continue lower - and we can only confirm our assessment of strength in the background when we determine that there is hidden buying in these down bars. This is why stopping volume is a better sign of strength than an effort to fall bar - it contains hidden buying from the the big boys which forces a close on the highs.

That said - remember that on any time frame new players can step in with big volume and continue selling after a stopping volume or hidden potential selling bar, such as a buying climax. Or the market can carry lower with momentum. similarly on an up move, you might see the price carried higher than a previous upthrust. this is why we look for confirmation bars (no demand, no supply) and the turn of our trend indicator (hull MA, etc) to confirm before establishing a position.

Thus, the easiest sequences to look for before going long are:
hidden potential buying (selling climax and/or stopping volume), then confirmation from a successful test (no supply, test of supply) - with hull ma turning up
and for going short are:
hidden potential selling (buying climax, upthrust), then confirmation from a no demand bar, with hull ma turning down.

On occasion these patterns repeat (especially on tops) before the mark up or mark down, so you might see a combination of several upthrusts and no demands (tradeable for small pips) before any large down move. You can (and probably will) get stopped out occasionally going short or long, when market momentum carries prices lower (higher) before your valid assessment of the next move begins.

f451
  • #1,512
  • Jul 20, 2010 11:19pm Jul 20, 2010 11:19pm
Good afternoon HG sir, i read your posts thru' a few times but i still dun understand, will you mind breaking it down to noob level? thank you BIG TIME!!! below is one particular high level explanation...

cheers,
Bethel
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  • #1,513
  • Jul 20, 2010 11:28pm Jul 20, 2010 11:28pm
oops, sorry f451, n thanks for your reply n insights, always learn from u, i saw the reversal on the daily chart

Quoting f451
Bethel, can you circle where you saw the 2-bar reversal? I don't see one

Here's how I see the chart you've posted:

in the background we had an effort to rise bars, with the climatic bar (first red volume spike) being an up bar, so potential weakness. we also see an upthrust into relative new highs shortly after. BUT - look what happened in response - rather than falling, price was knocked sideways into a small channel, and every time it dipped down to 5250 volume increased. Also we have signs of a buying (high volume given it was the asian session)...
  • #1,514
  • Jul 20, 2010 11:28pm Jul 20, 2010 11:28pm
on the daily futures we did get a top reversal set up that could have indicated weakness however it seems that for now GU down moves are on low volume , almost test like.

hulls is green and according to my one rule I am not allowed to sell against the trend ( assuming you want to sell on a daily time frame ) of course on lower time frames you can play counter trend plays against the daily

1.5200 seems to be the critical area of s/r .

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Quoting Bethel
Hi malc, please help me with this, you mentioned that its a long here? on daily chart its in uptrend as well. =)

I got confused when i saw on the daily chart tt there is hidden selling and on 15min chart, the area where you mentioned is...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,515
  • Jul 20, 2010 11:33pm Jul 20, 2010 11:33pm
potential long set up in aj here forming thru asia

I will be keeping my ears open for hulls turning up alerts.

days range target if asia is days low is about 78.20

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  • #1,516
  • Jul 20, 2010 11:36pm Jul 20, 2010 11:36pm
gd afternoon f451, sir, hmm, i dun understand the part where you saw buying on the 8th candle from the right edge. I do see 3 upbars but with decreasing volume, thats why i thought its weakness...yup, do correct me, thank you for your time once again.

cheers,
Bethel

Quoting f451
Bethel, can you circle where you saw the 2-bar reversal? I don't see one

Quoting f451

Here's how I see the chart you've posted:

in the background we had an effort to rise bars, with the climatic bar (first red volume spike) being an up bar, so potential weakness. we also see an upthrust into relative new highs shortly after. BUT - look what happened in response - rather than falling, price was knocked sideways into a small channel, and every time it dipped down to 5250 volume increased. Also we have signs of a buying (high volume given it was the...
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  • #1,517
  • Edited 11:54pm Jul 20, 2010 11:43pm | Edited 11:54pm
Quoting malcolmb14
potential long set up in aj here forming thru asia

I will be keeping my ears open for hulls turning up alerts.

days range target if asia is days low is about 78.20

Attachment
Welcome back mal
Morning all
this what i see on my system, What VSA Say?
e/u down 1.2770
g/u stuck
Edit: g/u but expecting breakout next few H
  • #1,518
  • Jul 20, 2010 11:56pm Jul 20, 2010 11:56pm
Quoting Bethel
....i dun understand the part where you saw buying on the 8th candle from the right edge. I do see 3 upbars but with decreasing volume, thats why i thought its weakness....
Bethel,
i think f451 is referring to the 9th/10th bar from the right.
the volume in those bars were above average. (down bar then a mini reverse upthrust)

u base strength/weakness on a number of bars. this is a M15 chart so basing background on just 3 bars does not make good sense, IMHO.
base background on previous session/s.

we are still in a range. Asian session still on, so price might not yet be ready to take a direction.
personally, i think strength is still in the background... for now. but it can change any time soon. what's important is u have to be aware & act accordingly.

just my view.
  • #1,519
  • Jul 21, 2010 12:04am Jul 21, 2010 12:04am
Quoting egkid
Welcome back mal
Morning all
this what i see on my system, What VSA Say?...
Hey bro,
same idea about gu.
on eurusd,yeah, seems downside retracement not yet over.
Let's see.
  • #1,520
  • Jul 21, 2010 12:48am Jul 21, 2010 12:48am
Quoting lnangia
For price to move directionally there has to be some kind of a cause (campaign) created in the background which could be accumulation , distribution , re-accumulation or re-distribution. This is the law of cause vs effect. Price keeps on creating a cause (trading zone) for the next effect (directional move). This cause is created by an imbalance in demand and supply.

Once a campaign is conducted and no demand bars or no supply bars begin to emerge we are looking for price to gain some kind of momentum and clear out the left hand side of the...
Thanks for your post. However, I think you didn't quite understand what I meant. I do understand all that part which you have just explained (even before now). What I was asking is this. On the chart, distinguishing between the failed effort to rise and the failed effort to fall. I can show you 3 good instances where this happened and some said it was effort to rise while some said it was buying climax.

Quoting TC East
I thought that was a great explanation by Inangia. The only thing I'd throw in is I've noticed a failed effort to rise is a pretty good sign of weakness, which is essentially what has already been said. But I find this easy to spot; a whole bunch of effort to go up that doesn't really go anywhere, I feel pretty confident shorting soon after on a no demand, low vol test, etc...
Okay, your post made me think a little more. I am beginning to think that a trader's perceived effort to rise is different from another trader's effort to rise. What then classifies this difference? If you ask me I'd say I'm still thinking about it but so far the only answer I can come up with is that it depends on what the trader perceives/defines as his own view of a supply and demand area or zone. I think if the trader sees the POC as the S/D zone then his own judgement of effort to rise and effort to fall will be different from he who sees his S/D zone as normal support and resistance areas or he who sees his S/D zone as areas of volatility.

Having said that, I have looked at some charts and I am thinking that if after seeing effort to rise which is followed by a Key Reversal Bar (high volume up bar, with the next bar down on volume lower than the two previous bars which closes below or engulfs the previous bar) then this could be a sign of a failed effort to rise as it would only mean that some hidden selling has entered the market.
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