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vsa with Malcolm

  • #1,481
  • Jul 20, 2010 4:09am Jul 20, 2010 4:09am
Quoting Ronlizard
I was referring to Momomoney's post which is now on the previous page.
Ronlizard, you are correct. My initial posting had an error.

Also, the CBI Industrial Order news is no due for another 55 minutes or so. I think I will keep my powder dry for that news release and see how SM moves the price around in the next hour.

Sincerely,

Mo.
  • #1,482
  • Jul 20, 2010 4:23am Jul 20, 2010 4:23am
Quoting Sonny1
As we know the SM use news events to trick us... So this HVWRDB that we;ve seen? is that smart money luring the public in (selling climax) or is it an actual effort to fall.

Intel and co, would appreciate the insight
Not easy to call but, look at the H1 volume for that down bar. It's less than prev 2 bars and in general is quite low for the time of day. This would suggest that SM dont want to keep price down there.

I'm in long with a tight SL. But it was an aggressive entry.
  • #1,483
  • Jul 20, 2010 5:49am Jul 20, 2010 5:49am
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  • #1,484
  • Jul 20, 2010 6:34am Jul 20, 2010 6:34am
Quoting Intel
Aggressive entry at break of the SO. But best to wait for conformation after such a move.
Good Morning Intel,

Hope you don't mind a couple of questions:

What is your take on the Cable longs? Not sure if you held your longs from earlier this morning, but assuming you are, what are your targets?

Regards,

Mo.
  • #1,485
  • Jul 20, 2010 6:40am Jul 20, 2010 6:40am
haha wow, ok thats pro, im really a noob struggling to learn. Actually i broke some rules here, i din wait for hull to turn green but i went long 15min b4 it actually turned green. This is the 1st rule i broke.

2nd rule i broke is i did not wait for no supply ...for now the entry signals i can remember off hand are no ss, test, n no Dd bars, but here i entered reason being 1) the large shakeout (or do we call it a test? please correct me if im wrong), 2) i need to go away from the screen, a stupid reason yes..., 3) bars near support line, 4)larger TFs uptrend and green.

All this add to my confidence that a potential long is coming, but as i said i entered cos of stupid reason 2. Thank God for VSA tt i spotted reason (1) and thus the potential strength.

Quoting Allseeingeye
I have been long G/U since 1.5215 & see us in wave 2 going to 1.54 area before tumbling down wave 3 to 1.47-1.50 lets see if You guys can confirm with VSA which would give us a more confirmed trade!
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  • #1,486
  • Edited 10:57am Jul 20, 2010 8:20am | Edited 10:57am
Hi guys,

It's my pleasure to release Volume Monitor v2.0.


Key funcitions added:

  1. Can monitor upto six symbols (current symbol plus five specified ones), all timeframes, six recent bars based on BetterVolume 1.4's criteria.
  2. Display legends: "C"(white) -- Climax Low bar, "C" -- Climax High bar, "C" -- Climax Churn bar, "H" -- High Churn bar, "N" -- Neutral bar, and "L" -- Lowest Volume bar. You can let it displayed at four corners by setting CornerIndex.

Reminder: please make sure "BetterVolume 1.4.exe" is located in your indicator folder.

For me, coding is easier than trading. Hope you like this indicator and look forward to hearing your successful trading experience.

cheers,
polomine

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File Type: ex4 iPolo - Volume Monitor v2.0.ex4   15 KB | 508 downloads
  • #1,487
  • Jul 20, 2010 8:29am Jul 20, 2010 8:29am
Thanks for sharing and making this ... pure work of art and I am sure it will help many

Quoting polomine
Hi guys,

It's my pleasure to release Volume Monitor v2.0.

Key funcitions added:[list][*]Can monitor upto six symbols (current symbol plus five specified ones), all timeframes, six recent bars based on BetterVolume 1.4's criteria.[*]Display legends: "C"(white) -- Climax Down bar, "C" -- Climax Up bar, "C" -- Climax Churn bar, "H" -- High Churn bar, "N" -- Neutral bar, and "L" -- Lowest Volume...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,488
  • Jul 20, 2010 8:47am Jul 20, 2010 8:47am
Quoting polomine
Hi guys,

It's my pleasure to release Volume Monitor v2.0.

Key funcitions added:[list][*]Can monitor upto six symbols (current symbol plus five specified ones), all timeframes, six recent bars based on BetterVolume 1.4's criteria.[*]Display legends: "C"(white) -- Climax Down bar, "C" -- Climax Up bar, "C" -- Climax Churn bar, "H" -- High Churn bar, "N" -- Neutral bar, and "L" -- Lowest...

Thanks for this
  • #1,489
  • Jul 20, 2010 8:51am Jul 20, 2010 8:51am
Quoting malcolmb14
Thanks for sharing and making this ... pure work of art and I am sure it will help many
Mal,

I would appreciate it if you and HG shed more light on "effort to rise" and "effort to fall". When to trust it and when to ignore it.

Thanks in advance.
  • #1,490
  • Jul 20, 2010 8:59am Jul 20, 2010 8:59am
Quoting Intel
Hey Mr Chaos, long time no see.
Hello Sir
Hope u are doing great!

Quoting polomine
Hi guys,
It's my pleasure to release Volume Monitor v2.0.....
polomine,
sie sie ni(Thanks!)
  • #1,491
  • Jul 20, 2010 9:19am Jul 20, 2010 9:19am
Quoting wh1zz0
Hi guys...
... wondering if I actually got my analysis spot on or not. Wasn't that supposed to be strength? .......
im still learning... but i'll try

i agree with Intel.
for me background shows weakness.
the upmove was a trap. anther trading term for it is 'head fake'
in your chart, the first Effort to rise bar is a red climax bar which i think got more supply in it.. then like Intel said, price increasing on decreasing volume.

the bar u indicated 'test', im not sure if that is a test, because it was not on low volume. plus the next bar was a down bar (green high churn bar) opening & closing near the low.the succeeding bars were bearish too.
if it was indeed a test, i think that next bar should have been up instead of down. i may have bought above the 'test' bar or right at the next bar (if it was an up bar).

i havent read much VSA these days, so i hope i made sense
  • #1,492
  • Jul 20, 2010 9:21am Jul 20, 2010 9:21am
thank you~~~

Quoting polomine
Hi guys,

It's my pleasure to release Volume Monitor v2.0.


Key funcitions added:[list][*]Can monitor upto six symbols (current symbol plus five specified ones), all timeframes, six recent bars based on BetterVolume 1.4's criteria.[*]Display legends: "C"(white) -- Climax Down bar, "C" -- Climax Up bar, "C" -- Climax Churn bar, "H" -- High Churn bar, "N" -- Neutral bar, and "L" -- Lowest Volume...
  • #1,493
  • Jul 20, 2010 9:25am Jul 20, 2010 9:25am
hi HG, i read some of your posts, one was july 6 GU trade, just want to know what is your overnight? we may be in different time zones, im in Singapore.

thanks for your time!

yours sincerely,
Bethel
  • #1,494
  • Jul 20, 2010 11:47am Jul 20, 2010 11:47am
Quoting wh1zz0
Mal,

I would appreciate it if you and HG shed more light on "effort to rise" and "effort to fall". When to trust it and when to ignore it.

Thanks in advance.
For price to move directionally there has to be some kind of a cause (campaign) created in the background which could be accumulation , distribution , re-accumulation or re-distribution. This is the law of cause vs effect. Price keeps on creating a cause (trading zone) for the next effect (directional move). This cause is created by an imbalance in demand and supply.

Once a campaign is conducted and no demand bars or no supply bars begin to emerge we are looking for price to gain some kind of momentum and clear out the left hand side of the chart. To do so bars like effort to rise/fall materialize on charts.

For effort to rise to be genuine the presence of either Selling Climax or Preliminary Support should be somewhere in the background which would later get tested (no supply bars or no selling pressure). It is after this test we get a genuine Effort To Rise. Similarly invert the scenario to understand a genuine effort to fall.

There will be times when high volume upbars will appear during distribution. These high volume upbars which appear would replicate effort to rise but very quickly price will move back down. If these bars contained buying pressure then those strong professional hands would never allow price to move back down so far.

Also Tom William's tells us that SM buys and sells at the same time during distribution , its just that they sell more than what they buy. We also know that they sell on upbars and market does not like high volume on upbars because they contain selling. Richard D Wyckoff had termed these bars as Hypodermics. This basically means that they support which previously existed in the market has been thrown back in the market.

Hope This Helps You In Distinguishing Between Genuine Effort And A Fake One.

Cheers
Lalit
  • #1,495
  • Jul 20, 2010 11:56am Jul 20, 2010 11:56am
Quoting Momomoney
Good Morning Intel,

Hope you don't mind a couple of questions:

What is your take on the Cable longs? Not sure if you held your longs from earlier this morning, but assuming you are, what are your targets?

Regards,

Mo.
As I said at the time, I entered long aggressively with a tight SL and duelly got stopped shortly afterwards. I was not at the computer after my entry today, playin golf instead!!!!!

My stop was hit just after I left the house. In at 5231 SL placed below the SO/Test at 5218.

Had I been home I'm sure I would have entered short a couple of bars later. Wh1zz0 called it correctly. Tho I'm not sure the bar he entered on is a ND as he described it because the close was too high. It's more of a cross between ND and a no buying pressure. Maybe we could call it a 'No Demand Pressure'!!!! What ever we call it, the sentiment of the bar and volume was weak and a reasonable entry was the break of its low.
  • #1,496
  • Jul 20, 2010 12:04pm Jul 20, 2010 12:04pm
Good trade management is a vital component of trading. Correct SL positioning may not MAKE you money but, it can save you a FORTUNE. Today I made the wrong call on a trade but, because I got my SL correct, it didn't break the bank.

VSA really comes into its own with SLs. If you have found a setup for entry, most of the time, vsa gives you the place to put a SL and it will rarely be far away giving you a great ratio.
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  • #1,497
  • Jul 20, 2010 2:40pm Jul 20, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting wh1zz0
Mal,

I would appreciate it if you and HG shed more light on "effort to rise" and "effort to fall". When to trust it and when to ignore it.

Thanks in advance.
I thought that was a great explanation by Inangia. The only thing I'd throw in is I've noticed a failed effort to rise is a pretty good sign of weakness, which is essentially what has already been said. But I find this easy to spot; a whole bunch of effort to go up that doesn't really go anywhere, I feel pretty confident shorting soon after on a no demand, low vol test, etc...
  • #1,498
  • Jul 20, 2010 3:22pm Jul 20, 2010 3:22pm
Hi I was hoping someone who knows could answer my questions.

Somewhere on this thread I think I saw someone saying a shakeout can be a wide-range bar with a lower low than the previous bar with high volume that closes up. Is this it, or it's different?

And what is a top/bottom reversal? I think that a top reversal is a bar with wide spread and high volume and with the next bar closing on the lows of the 1st bar, or closing lower than the low of the 1st bar. But does this 2nd bar have to have a high volume too?

Thanks
  • #1,499
  • Jul 20, 2010 4:10pm Jul 20, 2010 4:10pm
Though i owuld post this nice 15 min chart GU

looks like we are getting a classic bull flag

1.5250 is major s/r on daily charts... as long as this holds or we get low volume testing just under it i expect the flag to break to the upside later in Asia / London ( London would be better)

My target on this trade is 170 pip

I will try and keep you updated if i get a hulls green alert

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,500
  • Edited 9:16pm Jul 20, 2010 7:06pm | Edited 9:16pm
Quoting wh1zz0
Hi guys...

I took a small loser yesterday and it left me wondering if I actually got my analysis spot on or not. Wasn't that supposed to be strength?

I'd appreciate comments.

Attachment
I wouldn't have taken that as a long. My reasoning is as follows:
The bar after the one you've marked as effort to rise has high volume but narrowing spread, which indicates possible hidden selling into the bar. Sellers coming in represents potential weakness in the background, rather than strength.

The bar you've marked as no supply seems to be to not be an ideal no supply bar firstly because of the potential weakness in the background (see above) and secondly because the volume is high-ish (although less than previous two bars) and the spread is probably a little wider than ideal. If it were in the context of strength in the background, this would be more of a failed test, and I would therefore wait for further testing.

But for me the real issue is that the "no supply" bar comes after an effort to fall bar, showing a move based on weakness already under way.

Generally for a long, I look for a series of effort to fall and/or selling climax in the near background, with stopping volume indicating buyers coming in. (although sometimes you can just have a selling climax or bag holding indicating hidden buying). after a stopping volume I look for a successful test of supply (no supply bar or other variants) before going long (preferably with a buy stop order at the level of the open of the no supply or successful test). I would be very hesitant to go long AFTER a successful effort to rise bar in the immediate background (within the last say 5 to 10 bars) because this is usually an indication that the mark-up (up move) has ALREADY happened. The only exception to this if you are in an uptrend, and we see a successful test after price has been knocked sideways into a range - this can be consolidation before the next leg up in an uptrend. But even in this situation you will usually see a stopping volume or shakeout on average to medium volume indicating buyers coming in (strength) before the test/no supply.

cheers
f451
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