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100% Price prediction Journal

  • #81
  • Jul 10, 2010 1:20pm Jul 10, 2010 1:20pm
PIP lover, I too experience larger drawdowns as well with my long term trading, but I also use a progressively increasing lot strategy to the initial trade which covers any losses if price does not retrace back to my original trade when my strategy says to exit. I also only take trades that incur positive swap daily to help lighten those losses on trades that can take several months or more to close. So please don't let one person get under your skin and continue to trade the way you always have. Everyone has their own opinion and there's nothing you can do to change their minds.
  • #82
  • Jul 10, 2010 5:23pm Jul 10, 2010 5:23pm
I will make one more attempt here then I will let the noobs be. In professional trading you never ever add to a losing position, you don't nurse one, you close it and get over it. Holding and scaling into losing postions will kill the best eventually guaranteed.

Three examples for you to study and research if you don't want to take it from me are LTCM, Barings Brothers and Sumitomo Copper they all made one basic mistake, they added to a loser hoping to hell and high water that they would eventually be proven right and they never did.

Any trader on any floor anywhere that scales in a loser will not only lose money he will lose his job as soon as he is found out. Period.

Now you noobs can get on with your silly experiment and I will return to the more serious side of trading; profit.
  • #83
  • Jul 12, 2010 3:43am Jul 12, 2010 3:43am
Quote:
Originally Posted by PIP Lover http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Short 1.5550
Tp 1.53




Quoting PIP Lover
Added short 1.58

averaged now short @ 1.5675
closed both trades @ 1.5440

total for this position: short 1.5550 110 pips
short 1.58 360 pips
--------------------
+ 470 pips

Price target was 1.53 and still is... havent yet bagged any trades this month so I wanted something im my pocket. I still see it going further down.

Does any body have comments ? maybe Cloggie
  • #84
  • Jul 12, 2010 4:18am Jul 12, 2010 4:18am
Quoting PIP Lover
Short @ 2640 tp @ 2400
Will add if neccesary.

(Breaking my rule of 3 maximum simultaneous positions and entering a 4th postion)

Closed @ 1.2570 for + 70 pips

I see a possibility of up again before down to 1.24. decided to be careful. If it goes back up i'll look to short again.
  • #85
  • Jul 16, 2010 8:18am Jul 16, 2010 8:18am
You must be getting close to 400 pips underwater again on your CADJPY trade, still think that scaling into massive losers is the way to go? So you may get lucky on a trade here and there, even a blind squirrel can find an acorn every once in a while, but this is no sustainable strategy.

Just a bit of entertainment for the noobs, that's all it is. Am off again, got some money to make.
  • #86
  • Jul 19, 2010 5:30am Jul 19, 2010 5:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by PIP Lover http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Long EurChf @ 1.3580
Tp 1.38

Wonder if I might have to add...
Hope not.



Quoting PIP Lover
Added @ 1.3420
Averaged long @ 1.35 tp still 1.38

killing the trade at 1.3180


Adding more again at 1.3265
Averaged at 1.3422

will not kill the trade at 1.3180 , i will kill at 1.29.
This is how I trade.. going all in.

Closed all three positions @ 1.3630

profit is: 1.3580 : + 50 pips
1.3420 : + 210 pips
1.3265 : + 365 pips
------------
+ 625 Pips

Come on guys continue to doubt me.
  • #87
  • Jul 19, 2010 8:01am Jul 19, 2010 8:01am
Quoting PIP Lover
Quote:
Originally Posted by PIP Lover http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Long EurChf @ 1.3580
Tp 1.38

Wonder if I might have to add...
Hope not.






Closed all three positions @ 1.3630

profit is: 1.3580 : + 50 pips
1.3420 : + 210 pips
1.3265 : + 365 pips
------------
[b]+...
Thats all well and good, the returns took some time to manifest but lets not forget the number of your own rules you broke. If you stuck to your original plan to cut the trade at your initial level then you wouldnt be boasting. The thread is call 100% price prediction but that allows plenty of room I guess to violate you own rules. Oh and by the way your targets havent been hit yet, you have just canned trades early. I have to ask you why that is.... if you think you are all that.

So yes I still doubt you, trades on the GBP/CAD and the CAD/JPY and also the above EUR/CHF have not hit your 'predicted levels' but I guess with all the success of just getting 'pips' that I am to be in your presence.

Question though. If your initial risk is determined by a 1000 pip SL and you take smaller than 1000 pip wins what % do you gain when you close trades. You may wonder what I am getting at but please answer as honest as you will.....
  • #88
  • Jul 19, 2010 8:46am Jul 19, 2010 8:46am
Quoting Razor_trader
Thats all well and good, the returns took some time to manifest but lets not forget the number of your own rules you broke. If you stuck to your original plan to cut the trade at your initial level then you wouldnt be boasting. The thread is call 100% price prediction but that allows plenty of room I guess to violate you own rules. Oh and by the way your targets havent been hit yet, you have just canned trades early. I have to ask you why that is.... if you think you are all that.

So yes I still doubt you, trades on the GBP/CAD and the CAD/JPY...

Razor,
Dont just yet... All the trades I have closed so far since starting this thread have amounted to +1981 pips.
I am currently down on Cad/Jpy - 1730 pips. Wasnt expecting to hold for this long... we got a nice up move to 86.50 area and I could have exited at BE or in small profit but I didnt... I am setting hard stop (Final this time) at 81.00- which should give me a total loss of 2330 pips if hit...

Regarding exits and percentages, I will post an answer soon.
I am looking to enter some more trades now and I need to concentrate.
  • #89
  • Jul 19, 2010 12:21pm Jul 19, 2010 12:21pm
Howdy!

I am really interested in trying to learn your methods. But I am confused about a few things:



1) What % of your account do you risk on each trade?

2) On which trade do you make more money; a 20 pip trade or a 200 pip trade?

I am being curious here. Your answers will tell me much. I look forward to them!
Jeremiah WAS a bullfrog.
  • #90
  • Jul 19, 2010 3:26pm Jul 19, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting 3 Dog Night
Howdy!

I am really interested in trying to learn your methods. But I am confused about a few things:



1) What % of your account do you risk on each trade?

2) On which trade do you make more money; a 20 pip trade or a 200 pip trade?

I am being curious here. Your answers will tell me much. I look forward to them!

1)The most I risk on a position is 1000 pips from my initial entry. This will be 1000-2000 $ on this one position alone and ammounts to 3-6 % of my equity. I do however add several positions to a trade so I may be down more than 1000 if there are several positions open.
So... I cant tell you exactly how much I risk.. it varies from trade to trade.

I think I have reached -20 , -25 % one time... sweated a little but it worked out. Right now I am down around 1700 pips on my Cad/Jpy trade.

2) No one answer here as well. I do trade for 1-30 pips , these are fast trades... in and out, usualy 10-20 $ a pip. I am thinking of posting these trades too however it is hard to post in time and trade.. Will try from now on.

Cheers
  • #91
  • Jul 19, 2010 7:35pm Jul 19, 2010 7:35pm
Quoting PIP Lover
1)The most I risk on a position is 1000 pips from my initial entry. This will be 1000-2000 $ on this one position alone and ammounts to 3-6 % of my equity. I do however add several positions to a trade so I may be down more than 1000 if there are several positions open.
So... I cant tell you exactly how much I risk.. it varies from trade to trade.

I think I have reached -20 , -25 % one time... sweated a little but it worked out. Right now I am down around 1700 pips on my Cad/Jpy trade.

2) No one answer here as well. I do trade for 1-30 pips...
I was going to make a point but I'll back off.

I will offer the following for your consideration:

1) If you are risking 1000 pips....you do have a SL, albeit an arbitrary one.
2) I have always found that the MARKET is a better indicator (and gives hints) about where to position a SL, as opposed to a fixed number of any amount.....dollars, pips, whatever. A very wise man once told me that a good place for a SL would be the place I would want to enter in the other direction.
3) It will take a long time to go bust if you only risk 2% per trade. With a target and a market determined SL; you are in control, not the whims of Mr Market. Then (and this was my point); 10 pips, 100 pips, or 400 pips risked; they are all the same with a fixed % risk per trade, a SL, and a target. Just make sure your r:r is in line.

Just some stuff to consider if you want.

Now I'll fade back into the woodwork

Good Luck.
Jeremiah WAS a bullfrog.
  • #92
  • Jul 20, 2010 1:44am Jul 20, 2010 1:44am
Short @ 1.3010
tp 1.28 with possibility of lower.

Will add more if needed.
Lets see how this goes
  • #93
  • Jul 20, 2010 3:05am Jul 20, 2010 3:05am
Quoting PIP Lover
Short @ 1.3010
tp 1.28 with possibility of lower.

Will add more if needed.
Lets see how this goes

Setting stop to BE on this one... I will short again from higher up if I get stopped out.
  • #94
  • Jul 21, 2010 5:26am Jul 21, 2010 5:26am
Quoting PIP Lover
Setting stop to BE on this one... I will short again from higher up if I get stopped out.

Stop to BE, now we are talking !!!

Short again from higher up... much better idea than drawdown!


Keep it up, good luck
  • #95
  • Jul 21, 2010 5:34am Jul 21, 2010 5:34am
Quoting PIP Lover
Short @ 1.3010
tp 1.28 with possibility of lower.

Will add more if needed.
Lets see how this goes

Closed here @ 1.2810
for +200 pips.

That was a nice one. Didnt even come back to my entry.
  • #96
  • Aug 12, 2010 11:38am Aug 12, 2010 11:38am
Quoting PIP Lover
Risk aversion is full on... This trade is begining to look like @#%$%
Adding one last time and setting hard SL at 81.80

added 84.55

averaged Long @ 86.84 Hard stop for all longs at 81.80... We will definately see 88.40 at some point... but right now its looking like could take months and im not willing to stay in that long.
Well you finally got stopped or did you move your stop for the final (4th) time. I love it when traders scale into losers.
  • #97
  • Aug 12, 2010 11:39am Aug 12, 2010 11:39am
Quoting PIP Lover
I am setting hard stop (Final this time) at 81.00- which should give me a total loss of 2330 pips if hit...

So that's down 2300 pips then and you showed a handful of trades in profit.

Good strategy. Keep scaling in those losers, we need liquidity providers like you.
  • #98
  • Aug 16, 2010 6:34am Aug 16, 2010 6:34am
Quoting cloggie
So that's down 2300 pips then and you showed a handful of trades in profit.

Good strategy. Keep scaling in those losers, we need liquidity providers like you.

Hi Hater (I mean Cloggie)

Yes my stop was hit for -2330 pips ... My profits before were 2181 pips.
So altogether i am -150 pips FROM MY LONG TERM TRADES. Have'nt taken any long term trades this past month though, only scalps and intraday trades, which have more than covered for this loss.
Will begin posting once again.
I would appreciate if you do not post unless you have something useful to say besides bashing.
  • #99
  • Aug 16, 2010 6:56am Aug 16, 2010 6:56am
Quoting PIP Lover
Hi Hater (I mean Cloggie)

Yes my stop was hit for -2330 pips ... My profits before were 2181 pips.
So altogether i am -150 pips FROM MY LONG TERM TRADES. Have'nt taken any long term trades this past month though, only scalps and intraday trades, which have more than covered for this loss.
Will begin posting once again.
I would appreciate if you do not post unless you have something useful to say besides bashing.

Not a hater at all, I love guys like you, great as entertainment, great for liquidity and a great example for noobs of how not to trade.

Keep it up.
  • #100
  • Aug 16, 2010 7:14am Aug 16, 2010 7:14am
Quoting cloggie
Not a hater at all, I love guys like you, great as entertainment, great for liquidity and a great example for noobs of how not to trade.

Keep it up.
What... I think this is useful info, dont you Piplover?

btw can we now agree that it isnt exactly 100% price prediction. You know, since 1 trade took out a months worth of gains. Im just sayin...
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