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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #17,441
  • Edited 3:12am Jul 18, 2010 1:38am | Edited 3:12am
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Cantik nya lagu ini.
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The used to be BEAUTIFUL SINGAPORE.
The Raffles Legacy.
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  • #17,442
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:42am Jul 18, 2010 4:42am
Quoting fti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqU-bwmTEr4

Cantik nya lagu ini.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3_JawbND1I&fmt=18

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJYo0irevE8&fmt=18

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gzVybXu8RE

The used to be BEAUTIFUL SINGAPORE.
The Raffles Legacy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rykJiY1vkV0&fmt=18
That old green bus reminds me, we had buses "IKARUS" in the Czechoslovakia... What a beatifull name for bus. Would you like to get in?... But they didnt make a plane with name IKARUS. It would be too much maybe...
  • #17,443
  • Jul 18, 2010 6:04am Jul 18, 2010 6:04am
Quoting Fana
That old green bus reminds me, we had buses "IKARUS" in the Czechoslovakia... What a beatifull name for bus. Would you like to get in?... But they didnt make a plane with name IKARUS. It would be too much maybe...
Ikarus buses were the best in Soviet republics. My childhood ;-)
it's o'k to win ...
  • #17,444
  • Jul 18, 2010 6:10am Jul 18, 2010 6:10am
We will never forget
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  • #17,445
  • Jul 18, 2010 1:13pm Jul 18, 2010 1:13pm
Quoting Fana
That old green bus reminds me, we had buses "IKARUS" in the Czechoslovakia... What a beatifull name for bus. Would you like to get in?... But they didnt make a plane with name IKARUS. It would be too much maybe...
They started off making planes in Serbia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ikarbus

But where did your buses come from, Serbia or Hungary?
  • #17,446
  • Jul 18, 2010 1:58pm Jul 18, 2010 1:58pm
I-KAR-US?
  • #17,447
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:04pm Jul 18, 2010 4:04pm
Our buses were from Hungary . As kids, we found one old bus in the wood. It was something... And also playing in Mig15 plane was super...
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  • #17,448
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:29pm Jul 19, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting fti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqU-bwmTEr4

Cantik nya lagu ini.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3_JawbND1I&fmt=18

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJYo0irevE8&fmt=18

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gzVybXu8RE

The used to be BEAUTIFUL SINGAPORE.
The Raffles Legacy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rykJiY1vkV0&fmt=18
hello dear fti,

i am just passing by and see you posted some some songs of Dutch Glory... ms. Gronloh and S. Reemer..... this makes me proud as a dutch man>
i hope you are healthy and happy>>>

@fana ... i always had succes with "cosmic girl" (as a dj) ... from the same album i got down with a couple of girls over this song "allright"

if you dance good with "the ladies" the nice car will follow.....
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kind greets and trade well, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #17,449
  • Edited 5:19pm Jul 19, 2010 5:06pm | Edited 5:19pm
i maby sound crazy.... when you want to succeed in trading you should feel confortabel to dance close with the most beautifull girl on the party... i had a couple of these (horny) times and need to get back this confidence. essentail!!!

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kind greets ... Pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #17,450
  • Jul 19, 2010 5:30pm Jul 19, 2010 5:30pm
Quoting j-pax
i maby sound crazy.... when you want to succeed in trading you should feel confortabel to dance close with the most beautifull girl on the party... i had a couple of these (horny) times and need to get back this confidence. essentail!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtQQ0sMy7RU

kind greets ... Pax
  • #17,451
  • Jul 20, 2010 1:58am Jul 20, 2010 1:58am
Quoting j-pax
i maby sound crazy.... when you want to succeed in trading you should feel confortabel to dance close with the most beautifull girl on the party... i had a couple of these (horny) times and need to get back this confidence. essentail!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtQQ0sMy7RU

kind greets ... Pax
Hi J-Pax, you are lucky. I have also horny girls: GBP/USD and EUR/USD. They take my all time...
  • #17,452
  • Edited 2:48pm Jul 20, 2010 11:44am | Edited 2:48pm
Quoting Fana


Hi J-Pax, you are lucky. I have also horny girls: GBP/USD and EUR/USD. They take my all time...
hey fana, this is a long time ago since i realy danced let alone with a beautifull girl... i now would be realy nervous when a girl is dancing up against me...
i said "ESSENTIAL" and meant i should not get nervous when things (dance, trade etc.) go realy well....

your Jamiroquai clip reminded me of a very nice summer, thanks for that and good trading to you and the Grlz.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #17,453
  • Jul 20, 2010 4:04pm Jul 20, 2010 4:04pm
Hi, guys.

Usually days like today leave me with a headache and and damaged book. Hopefully, today was an exception, but I would like to ask some questions regarding attacks, rescues and flipping.

Please ,fti and others, give some feedback to my questions. Critism is highly welcome and no offense will be taken.
Looking at the first two pictures, is there anything wrong with my approach? Are there any signs of reversal that I'm missing? Where would be the point to give up rescueing and cut the position?
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When I flipped I had lost some ground, this made me think that the ride will be limited and I got out at BE. Looking from hindsight, it was poor decision.

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On days like this I am usually a pretty stubborn fool and I try to rescue the initial position, since the left part of the chart shows that I'm with the bigger trend,while PA keeps kicking my ass in opposite direction. That's when my book get the most damage.

Regards, MyTbo
  • #17,454
  • Jul 20, 2010 5:26pm Jul 20, 2010 5:26pm
Quoting MyTbo
Hi, guys.

Usually days like today leave me with a headache and and damaged book. Hopefully, today was an exception, but I would like to ask some questions regarding attacks, rescues and flipping.

Please ,fti and others, give some feedback to my questions. Critism is highly welcome and no offense will be taken.
Looking at the first two pictures, is there anything wrong with my approach? Are there any signs of reversal that I'm missing? Where would be the point to give up rescueing and cut the position?
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From your posts you seem to do OK. I traded this today, north at first and got only 5 pips, but then south on the reversal pattern and had three trades going until the south move was over, then took a 1/2 position on the reversal pattern at the bottom and kept that position open to the exhaustion point (on my charts). I do not want to offend anyone here with a bunch of TA mumbo jumbo, so I will post my chart in my journal if you are interested in someone else's view of the day. It was a little tough getting in on the south move for me, because I usually like deeper pullbacks before entry, but it's summer time trading and you have to get in when you can.
  • #17,455
  • Jul 20, 2010 10:16pm Jul 20, 2010 10:16pm
Quoting MyTbo
Hi, guys.

Usually days like today leave me with a headache and and damaged book. Hopefully, today was an exception, but I would like to ask some questions regarding attacks, rescues and flipping.

Please ,fti and others, give some feedback to my questions. Critism is highly welcome and no offense will be taken.
Looking at the first two pictures, is there anything wrong with my approach? Are there any signs of reversal that I'm missing? Where would be the point to give up rescueing and cut the position?
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seems look ok.
yes , trading trend against manipulation gets difficult, esp when they scalping ranges.
Do not expect trends all the time.
sometimes dancing the range can be more profitable until the manipulator is killed in the markets.
Patience is key.
When dancing in manipulated range, hold base down for skew possibilities.
got to get into playful mode until you can see the manipulator die.
Should be soon, the donkey should see the iron lady kick his ass soon.

regards
  • #17,456
  • Edited 1:40am Jul 21, 2010 1:33am | Edited 1:40am
I put a 40 point grid on EU and bought/sold every time the price touched the line. If the market was random, I'd expect 50% of the trades to hit the next grid-line and retrace back to the entry price. 25% of the trades would go up two lines before retracing one. 12.5% would go up 3 lines before retracing one, and so on.

I'm no programmer, so after working through 543 trades on the hourly chart by hand, I got these results:

Random failure 50% 25% 12.5% 6% 3% 1.5% 0.8%

Actual failure 58% 23% 13% 5% 3% 1.6% 0.3%


The actual results are so close to random as to not matter. A person of supreme skill might be able to survive trading in this market, but I doubt that's me. I've enjoyed experimenting with fti's techniques in demo accounts and have learned a great deal, but there's no way under heaven I'll be risking real money. It's back to shares, I'm thinking...
  • #17,457
  • Jul 21, 2010 3:08am Jul 21, 2010 3:08am
in memories

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  • #17,458
  • Jul 21, 2010 3:25am Jul 21, 2010 3:25am
Quoting MyTbo
Hi, guys.

Usually days like today leave me with a headache and and damaged book. Hopefully, today was an exception, but I would like to ask some questions regarding attacks, rescues and flipping.

Please ,fti and others, give some feedback to my questions. Critism is highly welcome and no offense will be taken.
Looking at the first two pictures, is there anything wrong with my approach? Are there any signs of reversal that I'm missing? Where would be the point to give up rescueing and cut the position?
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Hello MyTbo
I am not long time in the markets, so let me share some experience what i had to face.
1. Changing, closing positions must be because of change of what is in the market. When you see turning or something what negates your actuall position. DONT WAIT and do. This was my big mistake(watching and hoping that it will go my direction.)
2. It is not possible to safe every bad trade. When you rescues and you are approaching... dont wait when it be fullfilled. Close it when you feel danger, not when you are at zero. (you can also be in + with this, but it is about controlling danger first...) rgds

.. this is what untrained brain do. Buy and sit and wait-hoping... no matter what is happening in the market. God thanks, we have got Fti :-)
  • #17,459
  • Jul 21, 2010 3:45am Jul 21, 2010 3:45am
Today morning GU - rescue.
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  • #17,460
  • Jul 21, 2010 5:21am Jul 21, 2010 5:21am
Observation

When trying to put something to the trash bin: first attempt is ... 70%+-
The second : nearly 100%
Women are more succesfull in the first attempt...
Thats some analogy with trading imho...
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