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Silent Service Method

  • #9,801
  • Jul 17, 2010 8:07am Jul 17, 2010 8:07am
Quoting mp777
Hi Chris, just listened to the podcast - thanks, very informative.

Chris
No worries. I am looking for a better mp3 player than the one that is built in to Wordpress......so hopefully the next one will have something a bit better.

Also, I will try to do the next one before 1 AM.....and be a little more awake. lol

Chris
  • #9,802
  • Jul 17, 2010 8:41am Jul 17, 2010 8:41am
let's see how this will play out...
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #9,803
  • Jul 17, 2010 8:50am Jul 17, 2010 8:50am
and this one, too
daily and weekly.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #9,804
  • Jul 17, 2010 11:43am Jul 17, 2010 11:43am
Chris,
I really like your podcast on the blog. I went through my pairs as you were talking and it was very helpful as a sounding board getting your wrap for the week. I know you have a life but in a perfect world I could listen to a daily podcast on the majors. lol Or please, at least keep doing the weekly wrap. Excellent job.

Mike
  • #9,805
  • Jul 17, 2010 11:54am Jul 17, 2010 11:54am
I am going through my trades to learn about the warning signs that I have been missing.

To me the PIN that I shorted on this chart looks valid. Do the two conflicting PINs before my short negate the PIN I shorted?

I saw it as a period of consolidation and was looking for the break down.
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  • #9,806
  • Jul 17, 2010 12:14pm Jul 17, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting calderone
Chris,
I really like your podcast on the blog. I went through my pairs as you were talking and it was very helpful as a sounding board getting your wrap for the week. I know you have a life but in a perfect world I could listen to a daily podcast on the majors. lol Or please, at least keep doing the weekly wrap. Excellent job.

Mike
Hell, right now my biggest problem is finding a decent audio player to work with wordpress......lol
  • #9,807
  • Jul 17, 2010 12:16pm Jul 17, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting jharvey407
I am going through my trades to learn about the warning signs that I have been missing.

To me the PIN that I shorted on this chart looks valid. Do the two conflicting PINs before my short negate the PIN I shorted?

I saw it as a period of consolidation and was looking for the break down.
It shows that there is a lot of indecision at that point. I typically don't like to see this kind of action before taking a trade.....

Congrats though, lesson learned.....and in the big scheme of things - I am sure it was cheap.....right?
  • #9,808
  • Jul 17, 2010 2:14pm Jul 17, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting clockwork71
It shows that there is a lot of indecision at that point. I typically don't like to see this kind of action before taking a trade.....

Congrats though, lesson learned.....and in the big scheme of things - I am sure it was cheap.....right?
Yes, that lesson was cheap, and I think it provides a clue as to my problems trading.

I just went through all of my trades for June and July, instead of finding charts full of glaring errors or stupid mistakes I found that almost all of the charts contained a valid entry signal (according to my analysis). I think the only thing that I noticed that could use improvement is the shape of the bars that I use for entry. Many of them were just normal bars, not a particular PIN or outside bar etc.

Perhaps I simply need to wait for a particular bar shape to use as entry, instead of just looking for a bar that has been rejected by a particular level or trend line.

I am going to go through the trades again and see how many were based on an 'average' bar instead of a well formed PIN, Double PIN or Outside Bar. Maybe that will hold some clues.

I took notes as I studied the charts and this is what I came up with;

1) Don't move stop to BE too quickly.
2) Use a reasonable stop, give the market some room.
3) Don't be afraid to take profits.
4) Don't take profits too quickly.
5) Don't trade too far from the 21MA.
6) Watch for conflicting PINs and signals.
7) Look for valid signals - PIN, Double PIN, Outside Bar.

Let's see how this week goes.

J
  • #9,809
  • Jul 17, 2010 2:45pm Jul 17, 2010 2:45pm
Nice podcast Chris, thanks.

Also noticed a decent volume spike (335M) on the DJIA.... I was wondering when the real sellers would show up.
  • #9,810
  • Jul 17, 2010 3:10pm Jul 17, 2010 3:10pm
Quoting jharvey407
Yes, that lesson was cheap, and I think it provides a clue as to my problems trading.

I just went through all of my trades for June and July, instead of finding charts full of glaring errors or stupid mistakes I found that almost all of the charts contained a valid entry signal (according to my analysis). I think the only thing that I noticed that could use improvement is the shape of the bars that I use for entry. Many of them were just normal bars, not a particular PIN or outside bar etc.

Perhaps I simply need to wait for a particular bar...
I would also include trend analysis in your research. If a trade is with the trend, I suspect you will find that a lot of "B" grade bar shapes pan out alright......
  • #9,811
  • Jul 17, 2010 3:45pm Jul 17, 2010 3:45pm
I finally got a chance to listen to your podcast. Very nice work, thanks.

Quoting clockwork71
I would also include trend analysis in your research. If a trade is with the trend, I suspect you will find that a lot of "B" grade bar shapes pan out alright......
That was my assumption right up until this weekend.

Almost all of my trades were with the trend. Most of them went my direction at least a little bit before reversing. Some of them went into profit over 100 pips before reversing.

It may just be a noisy market, but I think I am at the point where it will just take some time to develop an 'eye' for the setups.

I'm just going to stick with my plan and keep the risk low.

J
  • #9,812
  • Jul 17, 2010 4:01pm Jul 17, 2010 4:01pm
I'm not using the 8 and 21 ema on daily for trend etc. Anyone have any thoughts on if I should be? I've been using the old eyeball indi.

I get tired of seeing them. No real reason.

I quit using the 150 and 365ema on hourly too.
  • #9,813
  • Jul 17, 2010 4:42pm Jul 17, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting calderone
I'm not using the 8 and 21 ema on daily for trend etc. Anyone have any thoughts on if I should be? I've been using the old eyeball indi.

I get tired of seeing them. No real reason.

I quit using the 150 and 365ema on hourly too.

I have found that the only time I give any credence to an EMA is the 200, on stock charts. Only because so many stock traders do. No other reason.
  • #9,814
  • Jul 17, 2010 8:27pm Jul 17, 2010 8:27pm
Quoting clockwork71
I have found that the only time I give any credence to an EMA is the 200, on stock charts. Only because so many stock traders do. No other reason.
I never really put to much stock in them, as I don't really use an indicator very much either. Divergence is really the only thing I try to watch for and to be honest-I usually pick that up by chance. lol

I think I'm done with candles too. I'm starting to appreciate bar charts.

  • #9,815
  • Jul 17, 2010 8:43pm Jul 17, 2010 8:43pm
Quoting calderone
I never really put to much stock in them, as I don't really use an indicator very much either. Divergence is really the only thing I try to watch for and to be honest-I usually pick that up by chance. lol

I think I'm done with candles too. I'm starting to appreciate bar charts.


Funny, I can back and forth from one to the other, but I prefer bars as well.

Divergence, normally something I notice after the trade is put on. I know what you mean. lol
  • #9,816
  • Jul 18, 2010 7:49am Jul 18, 2010 7:49am
Low -

Just thought you should know, you printed a pin on the weekly...

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What's up w/ that??
  • #9,817
  • Jul 18, 2010 8:22am Jul 18, 2010 8:22am
Great Newsletter this week Chris! I agree with everything you said on the markets. I'll persoanlly be looking for shorts on the Euro/USD this week. I definietly think it should be headed lower soon. That move has gone up waaaay to fast in my opinion, to be sustainable.
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
  • #9,818
  • Jul 18, 2010 8:49am Jul 18, 2010 8:49am
Quoting InfinitySL
Low -

Just thought you should know, you printed a pin on the weekly...

Attachment

What's up w/ that??
No doubt. It's a continuation pin on top of that. If he gets a little lower, I might sell him. lol
  • #9,819
  • Jul 18, 2010 8:50am Jul 18, 2010 8:50am
Quoting jpa0827
Great Newsletter this week Chris! I agree with everything you said on the markets. I'll persoanlly be looking for shorts on the Euro/USD this week. I definietly think it should be headed lower soon. That move has gone up waaaay to fast in my opinion, to be sustainable.

Thanks jpa - and yes, the move is really looking parabolic. Even if this was a trend change, which I doubt, it still needs to pull back because of the velocity of the move.
  • #9,820
  • Jul 18, 2010 9:45am Jul 18, 2010 9:45am
Quoting jpa0827
Great Newsletter this week Chris! I agree with everything you said on the markets. I'll persoanlly be looking for shorts on the Euro/USD this week. I definietly think it should be headed lower soon. That move has gone up waaaay to fast in my opinion, to be sustainable.
Something i read it thought to share
“If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties.”

Happy new week to all full of green
Trade safe
Egkid
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