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Silent Service Method

  • #9,781
  • Jul 16, 2010 7:42am Jul 16, 2010 7:42am
Here we are: 1.30

We will see what the EUR/USD does from here. My thought is that this move has been sudden and sharp. Normally that means it will have issues breaking through. But then again, these aren't normal times, are they?

Interestingly enough.....the AUD looks weak. With all the optimism, it should be going higher.......

Whatever the reason, it's EUR positive, not necessarily USD negative in my view.
  • #9,782
  • Jul 16, 2010 9:24am Jul 16, 2010 9:24am
Quoting 4xAddict
I agree with you that it is not all doom and gloom out there but still can't get past the impact that loose monetary policy is having.
There will certainly be unforeseen consequences of the loose monetary policy. As a saver, I'm upset I get no yield on my cash. That being said though, the steep yield curve is good for the economy. It gives savers incentive to either spend or invest. Unfortunately the headwinds that the Fed faces are that consumers are crazy-overlevered, so they don't invest/spend, they pay down debt. So you get this tug-of-war between those who think the loose policy creates inflation vs. the reality that people aren't spending, they are paying off their HELOC, Credit Card, Etc.

Quote
... the Baltic dry shipping index is miles off it's highs and given a major chunk of supply chains originate in the far east, this is a large concern to me.

Normally flow through takes 3-6 months to hit the local Market once the Chinese get hit. If Baltic is down the shipped inventory volumes will be dropping with it, just due to lag it won't hit numbers for a month or two.
You might be interested in this article. The author mentions a couple of the same points as you, but also talks about the overbuilding of drybulk ship carriers vs. the non-building of the actual shipping containers. So the rates on the ships (the baltic index) is down, but the cost to rent the shipping containers (those palates that you see on the back of 18-wheelers) has continued to climb. Who do you believe? The author of that article is in the 2% growth camp and believes the stock market is priced more for 3.5%...

Low inflation + Low(ish) growth + hangover from real estate bubble...Hello Japan (this also explains why treasury rates are as low as they are). 30yr US Treasury 3.95%!
  • #9,783
  • Jul 16, 2010 9:39am Jul 16, 2010 9:39am
Thought I would post this great gif.....lol

And yes, I am still pissed about how my Dutch played. This must have killed, since he was certainly wearing a wooden shoe. :-)

De Jong FTW!
Attached Image
  • #9,784
  • Jul 16, 2010 11:43am Jul 16, 2010 11:43am
Quoting jharvey407
I think we are all in similar situations.

I have reached the point where I can go all day without looking at a chart because I know that looking at the chart is not going to affect the market and I trade on the daily time frame, so the only time I need to look at the chart is right after the close of the day.

I can read the trend, the SR, the PINS, outside bars etc.

I know how to manage my risk to preserve my capital.

I let my winners run, unless there is a valid TP.

I pick my entries without emotion based only on the entry signals I see,...
101% True!

Same with me here....


Now let's all make money together....
My edge ===> Patience
  • #9,785
  • Jul 16, 2010 1:15pm Jul 16, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting Ben920FX
101% True!

Same with me here....


Now let's all make money together....

I really like your signature Ben.......it's very true.
  • #9,786
  • Jul 16, 2010 1:40pm Jul 16, 2010 1:40pm
http://i25.tinypic.com/330zl3p.png
  • #9,787
  • Jul 16, 2010 1:54pm Jul 16, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting Low
http://i25.tinypic.com/330zl3p.png
I'm with you on that one.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,788
  • Jul 16, 2010 2:06pm Jul 16, 2010 2:06pm
This is SGDJPY Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sgdjpy.gif Size: 28 KB
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,789
  • Jul 16, 2010 3:13pm Jul 16, 2010 3:13pm
If this thing breaks down.....I think it's at least 1.20.....and my projections of making new lows is still valid at the moment.......
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurmonth.png Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurday.png Size: 42 KB
  • #9,790
  • Jul 16, 2010 3:13pm Jul 16, 2010 3:13pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
I'm with you on that one.
Agreed. This looks like a failed weekly flag to me.
  • #9,791
  • Jul 16, 2010 3:43pm Jul 16, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting clockwork71
Agreed. This looks like a failed weekly flag to me.
Lol, we're going to have to disagree sometime soon, just for kicks maybe?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,792
  • Jul 16, 2010 3:56pm Jul 16, 2010 3:56pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Lol, we're going to have to disagree sometime soon, just for kicks maybe?

You are from the UK......fan of Arsenal I suppose? If not, you SHOULD BE.

  • #9,793
  • Jul 16, 2010 4:25pm Jul 16, 2010 4:25pm
Quoting clockwork71
Agreed. This looks like a failed weekly flag to me.
Which was failed? Sorry i didnt get this.

Re Nzdusd - Nice weekly pin which will be shorted. However todays bearish move was big and monday might see a retrace of it. So there might be a better entry maybe on tuesday.

Re Eurusd - Nothing on any chart to suggest an immediate short. Todays bar is far too small to draw any conclusion. While it hints at the up trend slowing, i would draw no more conclusions until price get below 1.27. Im still long.

Re Gbpcad. Up 3% this week. Stops tightened to lock in over 2%. But it may go higher.
  • #9,794
  • Jul 16, 2010 4:34pm Jul 16, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting jicjoc
Which was failed? Sorry i didnt get this.

Re Nzdusd - Nice weekly pin which will be shorted. However todays bearish move was big and monday might see a retrace of it. So there might be a better entry maybe on tuesday.
I agree with this...it's almost "too perfect" a set-up. I'll be looking for a stop-hunt/retracement, or enter with a wide stop and lots of patience.
  • #9,795
  • Jul 16, 2010 8:10pm Jul 16, 2010 8:10pm
I went short on a daily bar that was quasi pin shapped, but that tested SR. I am up allmost +50 for Friday.

I'll post a chart when I get a chance.

Quoting Low
http://i25.tinypic.com/330zl3p.png
  • #9,796
  • Jul 16, 2010 11:50pm Jul 16, 2010 11:50pm
Quoting clockwork71
You are from the UK......fan of Arsenal I suppose? If not, you SHOULD BE.

Malheuresment je n'aime pas le football. Arsenal are all French aren't they? Hey, that's it, I don't like football.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,797
  • Jul 17, 2010 1:00am Jul 17, 2010 1:00am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Malheuresment je n'aime pas le football. Arsenal are all French aren't they? Hey, that's it, I don't like football.

I know. More French in Arsenal than PSG.

And how can you not like football? Your are in the UK. Don't they throw your type out for that? lol
  • #9,798
  • Jul 17, 2010 1:01am Jul 17, 2010 1:01am
Quoting jicjoc
Which was failed? Sorry i didnt get this.

Re Nzdusd - Nice weekly pin which will be shorted. However todays bearish move was big and monday might see a retrace of it. So there might be a better entry maybe on tuesday.

Re Eurusd - Nothing on any chart to suggest an immediate short. Todays bar is far too small to draw any conclusion. While it hints at the up trend slowing, i would draw no more conclusions until price get below 1.27. Im still long.

Re Gbpcad. Up 3% this week. Stops tightened to lock in over 2%. But it may go higher.

The failed flag is the NZD.

As far as the EUR - The size is fine with me....because of where it's at. Perfect place really.

Chris
  • #9,799
  • Jul 17, 2010 1:02am Jul 17, 2010 1:02am
Blog updated with a 30 minute podcast. Going to start doing them every weekend.
  • #9,800
  • Jul 17, 2010 2:55am Jul 17, 2010 2:55am
Quoting clockwork71
Blog updated with a 30 minute podcast. Going to start doing them every weekend.
Hi Chris, just listened to the podcast - thanks, very informative.

Chris
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