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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #229,241
  • Jul 16, 2010 11:18am Jul 16, 2010 11:18am
Quoting sailor68
Right, this week have to be patient with Dragon, but first TP hit at 133,50, took more profit on area of weekly pivot, waiting for more rooms down with NY session, also japanese bank holiday on monday.....
TP 2 Hit, now let run some short to 131.60 stop at BE, see you at LO open, nice week-end to all....
Trade with the momentum
  • #229,242
  • Edited 1:43pm Jul 16, 2010 1:14pm | Edited 1:43pm
Although the S&P has gone to 1069 as of now, it was ~1074 when the GJ low of 132 was printed. Yen strength has subsided ever so slightly, and even UJ is 50 pips off it's low. I'd have hoped for more than 80 pips of a bounce for GY off it's low, but when you're weak, you're weak.

The post-2pm timeframe is crucial because 1) Chicago pit traders are back from lunch and 2) NY is back and knows Chicago is back and 3) we're up against a weekend where risk aversion is in play.

Trying my hand at VSA, I think buyers are around 132.22, and there aren't many sellers below that, for today, so the low may hold, although a retest is not to be discounted. If you're in a scalp long, watch the S&P index for clues; word is volume has increased, but don't know if it's selling or buying just yet. At a time like this, I also find monitoring the M1 chart and plotting TLs, fibs against it, to be full of clues.

Judging just from the GY PA, we just may go up from here, as part of a retrace. But, if equities hit the skids, so will the yen crosses. If equities bounce a little as they did for FTSE's close, I'm hoping to see 133.2, but not keen about holding long through a newly sentiment minted weekend. Good luck to all.

EDIT: Adding good explanation on today's yen "favouritism."
EDIT2: Sterling's biggest single day 800 point decline and the role of the Yen. Let's all do a group prayer for this one!
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  • #229,243
  • Jul 16, 2010 1:31pm Jul 16, 2010 1:31pm
yes u are right sorry....im expecting a small short term uptrend to 134.52 and then resume the dwntrend....

if somebody thinks my post anr rubbish please send me a PM...so i can send u back a virus or something...Just kidding....have a nice weekend everybody
  • #229,244
  • Jul 16, 2010 2:32pm Jul 16, 2010 2:32pm
Out of my longs for less than I'd hoped - should have sold 30 pips ago, damn it - oh well - I refuse to give money back to the market; end-of-day fear has entered the market (I hoped it wouldn't) and I think they know more bad news is coming next week. The previous highs were really just great short entries; shouldn't surprised any of us, but you never know where the great melt-up machine will stop.

Since my broker is open to 5pm EST, GY might come back, but I do not want to risk it. S&P down to 1063, lower than is safe really. Hope everyone made pips!
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  • #229,245
  • Edited 3:41pm Jul 16, 2010 2:40pm | Edited 3:41pm
Quoting Beljevina
Am long heavily from 133.35, set to BE SL.
Just curious here, but you posted this 4 hours ago.

Then this just now:

Quoting Beljevina
Out of my longs for less than I'd hoped - should have sold 30 pips ago, damn it - oh well - I refuse to give money back to the market;
Now, I don't claim to be the sharpest knife in the drawer but I know for fact we traded back through 133.35 after your initial post and therefore long entry. In fact, I believe we made a new low for the day since you posted the long call.

How did you manage to get out with any profit with a SL at BE?
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  • #229,246
  • Jul 16, 2010 4:01pm Jul 16, 2010 4:01pm
Well, now that the day and week of trading have commenced I thought I'd update my trade setup.

As I posted here a couple days ago, I gave a few scenarios to play out. I said the bottom support of our rising 4H channel would be a good place to consider longs with a tight stop. Well, I woke up this morning to us resting right near that support and decided it be better to wait for some sort of bounce and retest of that area to see if it would hold before going long.

In the next hour or so we pushed right through it and printed a low for the day right around 132.00 (I had covered all shorts at 133.75). So we now find ourselves in scenario #2 of my above linked post.

Next week I'll look for shorts again on a retest of the lower portion of our old channel. Based on fib retracements I would expect this to occur anywhere between 133.40 and 133.75 with a stop sitting initially at 134.30

A good target would be 131.50ish... just before the support comes in at 131.20ish that we've been unable to break for awhile now. If I'm stopped out of this trade I would expect us to go test the upper horizontal boundary once again in the 135.50 zone where again I'd look for shorts in order to play our range until it's proven broken.

Happy trading and a good weekend to all!
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  • #229,247
  • Jul 16, 2010 4:16pm Jul 16, 2010 4:16pm
i agree.
here is a chart showing my short term view - as long as price is below purple line (that stays in place for monday), bias is bearish.

i don't have a long term view... g-j monthly chart looks really stupid.

Quoting Geppy
Well, now that the day and week of trading have commenced I thought I'd update my trade setup....
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #229,248
  • Jul 16, 2010 6:51pm Jul 16, 2010 6:51pm
Quoting Geppy
Just curious here, but you posted this 4 hours ago.

Then this just now:

Now, I don't claim to be the sharpest knife in the drawer but I know for fact we traded back through 133.35 after your initial post and therefore long entry. In fact, I believe we made a new low for the day since you posted the long call.

How did you manage to get out with any profit with a SL at BE?
You're completely right ... I changed my mind on the break even piece, being fairly confident if it dipped further, it wouldn't be far, given we had the possibility of optimistic lunch trading to bounce up with, and if after getting back into positive territory it again tanked, then I'd give up on it. Just didn't feel like giving back the spread to the market and hunt for another entry, and didn't post the update.

So I was underwater by 30 pips, and then also missed the reversal when it was 60 pips up (religiously to the M0 on the chart), and then got out after a big down bar that pretty much broke the fib of the last 30 pip rise, figuring equities were going to tank further. All in all, it was a mediocre 25 pip trade.
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  • #229,249
  • Jul 17, 2010 5:28am Jul 17, 2010 5:28am
:nerd:
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  • #229,250
  • Jul 17, 2010 7:24am Jul 17, 2010 7:24am
Hi Don, we need to know that the market has not been trending madly as it always do 2 years ago, Before GJ use to move averagely 400 pips but now major trending market has been less than even 300 pips.

I remember those years my take profit for GJ is always 250 to 300 pips but now the volume traded has been less. So trade the range u see. Sell the rally and buy the dips.

Quoting donfriday
Hmm long time i check FF, miss the room anyway..Bu i think Trading as not been easy for sometime now and it's even worst trading GJ ....Hope everyone here is fine ..Trade safe.
  • #229,251
  • Edited 7:58am Jul 17, 2010 7:46am | Edited 7:58am
I made a stupid move Friday morning, seeing GY down over the night, and placed a long coz I thought I could get a retrace. Not realizing with my still sleepy head that it just broke the support trend line.
81 pips down on that trade at the moment.

But I'm hoping that it will come back to test the trend line and maybe I can come out as a winner here.

Question for the forum: I would like to have some good book titles about trading psychology. Because I have almost endless patience when it comes to a losing trade becoming a winner, but usually I have not enough patience to let my winners ride to their full potential.
I am a profitable trader but I just think my trading could be far more profitable if I could get that (let the winners ride) more under control.

My vision for next week: a triple bottom at the 131.25 area and we'll have to see if it breaks or not. I don't think it will break but we'll see.

Long term vision: I think we will go back to 145++ levels after the November elections in the USA.

Shamu

Happy trading to all.

And then to Geppy:

I think your posting a few days ago has really made a change in the forum.

Thank you for that smart idea. We're here to trade, not to exchange nonsense.
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  • #229,252
  • Jul 17, 2010 8:55am Jul 17, 2010 8:55am
Quoting KillerWhale
I made a stupid move Friday morning, seeing GY down over the night, and placed a long coz I thought I could get a retrace. Not realizing with my still sleepy head that it just broke the support trend line.
81 pips down on that trade at the moment.

But I'm hoping that it will come back to test the trend line and maybe I can come out as a winner here.

Question for the forum: I would like to have some good book titles about trading psychology. Because I have almost endless patience when it comes to a losing trade becoming a winner, but usually I...
I think Q or Someone posted this long back ago.Just re posting it for u .Hope this helps.
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  • #229,253
  • Jul 17, 2010 9:24am Jul 17, 2010 9:24am
Hello everyone.How can I rotate the triangle and rectangle in metatrader without changing its dimensions ? I can do it in vt and not in meta.someone please help me out .


  • #229,254
  • Jul 17, 2010 10:22am Jul 17, 2010 10:22am
GBPJPY is currently on the trendline beginning from 126.73 lowest point for the year so far. If the trendline is broken there is a support around 131.2x. If the trend line and support hold, there is the likelyhood of a reveral to around 136.00.

A break of the lower trendline and 131.2x support will likely precipitate a fall to around 126.xx to complete the 2nd leg of the fall from 145.95. A break of the upper trendline and the strong resistance at 136.16 will clearly indicate a continuation of the upward trend from 126.77.

The upper trendline from 145.95 and the lower trend line from 126.73 indicate that the currency is tranding within a tight range between 136.00 and 131.00. A break out of the tight range in either side is the area to watch for any long term trade, while a bounce of either support/resistance is a good point for either long or short trade. However the area to watch out for Monday is 131.00. Will it hold or will it not? That is the question that the market will answer next week.
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  • #229,255
  • Jul 17, 2010 10:32am Jul 17, 2010 10:32am
GBPJPY is currently on the trendline beginning from 126.73 lowest point for the year so far. If the trendline is broken there is a support around 131.2x. If the trend line and support hold, there is the likelyhood of a reveral to around 136.00.

A break of the lower trendline and 131.2x support will likely precipitate a fall to around 126.xx to complete the 2nd leg of the fall from 145.95. A break of the upper trendline and the strong resistance at 136.16 will clearly indicate a continuation of the upward trend from 126.77.

The upper trendline from 145.95 and the lower trend line from 126.73 indicate that the currency is tranding within a tight range between 136.00 and 131.00. A break out of the tight range in either side is the area to watch for any long term trade, while a bounce of either support/resistance is a good point for either long or short trade. However the area to watch out for Monday is 131.00. Will it hold or will it not? That is the question that the market will answer next week.

The upper trendline was missing in the earlier post, hence the repeat here
Attached Thumbnailshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1279380342
  • #229,256
  • Jul 17, 2010 10:33am Jul 17, 2010 10:33am
Quoting KillerWhale
Question for the forum: I would like to have some good book titles about trading psychology. Because I have almost endless patience when it comes to a losing trade becoming a winner, but usually I have not enough patience to let my winners ride to their full potential.
I am a profitable trader but I just think my trading could be far more profitable if I could get that (let the winners ride) more under control.
Wow, what an uncanny similarity! I do get into underwater trades, and either let them ride, or hedge. Thankfully most come back, and one's psychology of just getting out at break even, too frequently is the sole relief after weeks of worry!

Trading In The Zone by Mark Douglas is regarded as one of the best on trading psychology. I've read bits and pieces, and there is so much relevancy even for experienced traders, it's uncanny. Search and find it here. (No, I didn't put it there.)

Quoting honeybhi
Hello everyone.How can I rotate the triangle and rectangle in metatrader without changing its dimensions ? I can do it in vt and not in meta.someone please help me out .
If you're talking about the Images->Shapes menu selections that you've manually drawn onto the MT4 chart, I'm pretty sure you can't rotate them.

Only thing I can suggest is right click into it's properties, and manually adjust it's positioning ... ie., when I try to draw a rectangle to be from 135.2 to 135.6, it usually ends up something like 135.184 and 135.688, so I just go into it's properties and type in the exact values.
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  • #229,257
  • Jul 17, 2010 10:42am Jul 17, 2010 10:42am
Quoting honeybhi
I think Q or Someone posted this long back ago.Just re posting it for u .Hope this helps.
Wow, I'm impressed,
Thank you so much for sending me this.

Shamu
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  • #229,258
  • Jul 17, 2010 11:36am Jul 17, 2010 11:36am
Quoting Beljevina

If you're talking about the Images->Shapes menu selections that you've manually drawn onto the MT4 chart, I'm pretty sure you can't rotate them.

Only thing I can suggest is right click into it's properties, and manually adjust it's positioning ... ie., when I try to draw a rectangle to be from 135.2 to 135.6, it usually ends up something like 135.184 and 135.688, so I just go into it's properties and type in the exact values.
Thanks for clearing it.I want to place the triangle and rectangle at different angles.I have to stick to vt for now till meta introduces it.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif
  • #229,259
  • Jul 17, 2010 12:31pm Jul 17, 2010 12:31pm
To save flooding the FF server storage.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=209

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=210
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #229,260
  • Edited 8:39pm Jul 17, 2010 8:26pm | Edited 8:39pm
Quoting Beljevina
Wow, what an uncanny similarity! I do get into underwater trades, and either let them ride, or hedge. Thankfully most come back, and one's psychology of just getting out at break even, too frequently is the sole relief after weeks of worry!

Trading In The Zone by Mark Douglas is regarded as one of the best on trading psychology. I've read bits and pieces, and there is so much relevancy even for experienced traders, it's uncanny. Search and find it here. (No, I didn't put it there.)
Thank you Beljevina, but one question here" if a trade goes against you for let's say 1,000 pips and you don't wanna take the loss, then, when it comes back, why would you close for b-e? Why not let it ride for the proper gain that you were expecting when you started this trade in the first place?
Believe me, after weeks of worry, now you can enjoy a week of JOY
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