GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

Monthly Inside bar break....obviously a monthly close is needed above 5315 to confirm this but I will be watching the weekly and daily for signs... Price reached strong monthly res/support 5471 and was rejected yesterday evening...A valid break above this leaves 5835 and 6070 as medium term targets.

Stocky

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...ettlement.html

So, Goldman Sachs has settled with their masters – or is it, their serfs have settled for what GS have agreed to pay in order for the public to see that ‘justice’ is done? I can never decide who owns who these days. It appears that the settlement is yet another inverted result for the company. Yes, they have to pay a $550 million fine that, to you and me, is a huge amount of money and will be seen by the public as just punishment – headlines abound about how this is the biggest fine in history to a Wall Street firm. However, I venture that to the chaps at GS, it is really a matter of a couple of days/weeks of aggressive trading. Well, it’s not even that, as the share value for GS jumped on the news, and so I imagine the loss is already covered.

It transpires that RBS will receive $100 million of this payment. Pff, big deal, it won’t make a jot of difference to the man on the street here in Blighty. It would if, as we, the people that are told that we own the bank, can see that this money is transferred directly back to those RBS customers that lost out due to RBS avarice in mortgage markets; but I doubt it. And even then, it is but some 10% of what RBS lost, and so will likely be placed in the RBS coffer and proclaimed to be required by the bank for recapitalization. Or something to that effect.

Good news for BP, as well, as they proclaim to have contained the oil spill, and so their shares bump up, too. Ah, all will soon be back to normal for the big boys, and given the total contempt for us, and the rise in core inflation, there will be no real drop in the price of fuel, as inflation and extra VAT will make sure of that.

There has never been so much money in the markets, but as with all hegemonic systems, it is gradually being concentrated into smaller and smaller circles of autocracy.

Much of the developed world is collapsing into debt slavery; much of the undeveloped world is already there.

PA hugging onto the ascending yellow 88.6 fan. On the 4hr, seems contained by the standard yellow 38.3 fib.

From an FE perspective, price oscillating between the 76.4 and 50 - sort of - region.

I see a Guppy profile on a daily upwards suggesting a higher lows and higher highs, and breakout north.

Here's a question for you, Condor. In the GBP/USD chart above you comment "if only I had stuck with my projections". I'm wondering how much time you spent on those projections and why you didn't place, at least, a small trade?

Time spent - probably five minutes.

Yes, placed a small trade on, but with a trailing stop. I do tend to trail, and so am taken out often, but at no great loss.

Constantly fighting against psychology.

How about the 1.53 region/green 76.4 standard fib.

Expect positions to be closed before the weekend, but not to allow too much of a drop. EG storming today, and EU looking like another take off.

Stocky - any chance of some single prints and ledges?

Hey Smikester.

Had to take it, and it seems that the 1.53/green 76.4 standard fib is the region that London wants to close at. Yes, my TP was 15 shy of this level, but I've lost count of the amount of times my TP is missed by a few pips as PA fails to hit a significant fib.

I don't know why, but all of a sudden you've got me taking trades on the ODL account. Not my normal gig, as I tend to place most with FXCM.

Have a good weekend.

...and everyone else.

...of course, she had to push further.

I tried, but could not keep myself from ruining my weekend early this morning by picking up the weekend editorial.

No sooner have we learnt that all will be okay in the Gulf of Mexico – assuming in this age of next big story please, this one is now history for us and we do not give a second thought to the years of devastation that will ensue in that part of the world – than we are now being introduced to those nasty people at ExxonMobile who have just the same problem in Nigeria, but of which America is not hearing about due to media blackouts – sounds familiar – and it not being on the doorstep of the developed world.

Long regale short; the jump onto BP’s back was fuelled by big oil/US Government collusion to break the competition – nothing at all, in the larger scheme of things, to do with concern for the populace.

True or not, British or not, it is accepted that big oil and governments have been playing this game for years. Dear me, another hour of my life wasted reading the same old crap.

Still the successful news concerning the capping of the leaking well may help the FTSE.

The piece of news that has caught my eye since Friday has been the near total capitulation of the FED in relation to the dominance of the Dollar. Friday saw the core CPI rate increase, and the admission that the economic recovery much hailed up until recently, may not now transpire for another five years. In addition to this, it is quite possible that further bond buying and quantitative easing may be required/implemented by the FED. Opps…

And so it was that the Dollar dropped against the YEN, and with assistance from Cable taking a breather, Geppy retired a little.

One has to ask at this stage what in the world is going through the minds of developed nations’ leaders? Classical Chicago Business model economics are failing, and the Milton Friedman basis for sustainable economic development is flawed. A topic for another day.

I have a growing interest in the buying of European bonds by China in the last week or so. Hmm, what’s going on?

FF do not allow for another three charts covering UJ. So, in next post, and not as stated in this as per one of the charts.

Additional.

I see that Angela Merkel spent the weekend in China. I’m not surprised. Being the Chancellor of such an export-driven economy, Merk the Berk has to seek out new markets where she can. And let’s face it, anybody that has been to China can understand the voracious appetite for German cars and power tools. Here in Europe, people are having to settle for Chinese power tool brands that last as long as the little project for which they have been bought, but fail miserably the next time round, therefore requiring the purchase of a replacement, and thus, costing the consumer more than if the German power tool had been purchased the first time round… the cynics amongst us may claim that this is the ruse, as it increases consumer spending. As for cars, most European’s can only dream of owning a German brand, and so are increasingly settling for cheap Hyundais, and Tatas – when the latter finally reach the European market. The deeper cynics amongst us may remind others of the profits to be made from service and parts, and the increasing regularity with which these services and parts are required.

I was reading some statistics regarding the recent increase in German exports, and how this was being hailed as the sign of a recovery for Europe. Hmm… one could look at this from several angles, and so one shall.

Without substantiating with figures and graphs that would render the reader's retina raddled, true growth markets for German products are not in Europe. They are elsewhere – which explains Merk the Berk’s recent soirées.

Investment in German products is sometimes inferred as a positive sign of European growth. Well, not from where I’m sitting. Most European countries have dire figures. Of course, politicians will tow the line and give growth estimates for the next quarter, year etcetera, but even so, most don’t believe it. Of course, some of these growth estimates are actually countries just taking account of the projected increase in their own populations, and therefore requirements for basic sustenance within the given country. Whether this means that the standards of living will increase with the growth estimate is another matter entirely.

For her birthday celebration this weekend, Merk the Berk asked to visit the Terracotta Army in Xi’an. I wonder if she is seeking inspiration from Emperor Qinshihuang. Hailed a visionary, he is the chap that brought tyranny and sacrifice to many millions of Chinese, in his quest to unify the states that would later be called China. Upon which he imposed a centralized government, currency and laws to abide by.

As said before, I see 01.01.11 as an ominous date for a Euro V2 to be launched. I’m still unsure of what to call the new state, but how about I start with Eurmana? (Amalgamation of Europe, Germany and China.)

A little exercise in target projections.

I have in the back of my mind the notion that as the current global financial fiasco, and resettlement of the order of things takes place, that Sterling will favour a move back into a central position within the larger swing that has occurred the last few years.

Although I see a Guppy profile that on larger time frames clearly shows a downtrend, a retracement seems to be in place. As with all indicators, it lags, but from a fundamental point of view, a return to a central position may ensure some semblance of neutral ground from which Sterling can make it’s next move.

Whether markets know that a second crash is coming or not, does not, to me, take away the idea that Sterling will much better be able to defend big money from a central position. Indeed, I think the recent dramatic fall is indicative of Sterling being too widely spread in suffering markets, and so as the pullout began – particularly in positions involving the dollar – the PA showed a cut losses and run mentality.

As order, hopefully, prevails, Sterling may be showing the maturity of being much more cautious of where to go. Conversely, it may already know, and this retracement is just a mark up for another fall to the lows. Who knows, but it is what makes this game so damn entertaining.

Standard post. Sorry for saturating the thread this weekend, but it is when I have the most time to present my views - with reasonable study - and try to ellicit views opposite that may save me from getting into trouble.

Not an hour in, and already we learn of IMF pressure on G20 to put more money in the rescue pot, IMF loan denial to Hungary, and Moody downgrade to Ireland.

Should be an interesting week.

Hi guys,

I have figured out an interim solution to my problem of not trusting my broker. Having re-capitalised the account with a small amount of money, I am buying way out of the money options to capitalise on market volatility in an extremely low risk manner (maximum liability always when the option you bought goes to 0 and generally otm options are relatively close to 0 already) with plenty of leveraged opportunity for profit if things go my way. This generally means playing the longer term charts, though. So I have been focusing my efforts where I can, timed buying August and Sept DAX puts for exercise even as low as 5000! The idea is to play on Eastern Europe instability fears. Kelts provide a guidance on volatility and an idea of where to get out of I am wrong (i.e. if volatility goes against me).

Would like to book some initial profits at the bottom weekly kelt 5450ish and maybe buy some fresh puts if/when we get there!

Might have a bash at this. Good to see you here again.

ProRealTime does all the hard work for you these days...it automatically charts better technicals than I have ever managed to! Thin dotted red resistance line is very interesting possibly from an EW perspective as the 90% retrace of the April 26 -> May 6 downmove. Which means possible B wave of a weekly flat correction finished there which means C wave still coming below 5500? Weekly close above/below 6000 is key I am sure. How will you play along?

Will not play. I feel that there is too much happening this week for any serious attempt from me. Rumour rife of which way Dax will go around the 6k mark, and for me, everything seems to be tightening up towards make or break points. All the indices are retreating to crucial levels, bullshit abounds in the press and fiscal TV, and the politicians are running around with their heads in their arses as they speak.

Just taking some morning scalps, really, and will cut that nonsense out come Thursday.

May even turn the pc off from Thursday night until next Tuesday - which may please a lot that frequent this site - and when I do turn back on, I may have a better idea of just how deep things are going to get.

I've said before that I have 'some' faith in Sterling if the Dow stays above 10k, but that's looking shaky this morning. And then we have the BoJ buying against the Dollar and the idiots down in space control ECB intervening... it's a quagmire that I don't want to traverse, if I can help it.

Great environ to make a bit from market beta (well, beta-ish against midcaps and the tech30)


I very much doubt a market like this is going to make you regret an attitude like that I definitely value sleep over worrying about some of my positions while I sleep! It's not even like I'm sizing really big, it's just these days you have no idea what sort of retarded statement you are going to wake up to maybe even "Fed announces $5tr QE2" or "Israel bombs Tehran" which could cause all sorts of pain in various trading instruments. Who wants to worry about shit like that? Not me!

Hmm, last fifteen minutes seeing a concerted push south.