Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

so far so good, lets see what's next
up or down

niceee

wow..nice indi..may i try

yes mate, but which one

all in ur chart accept QQE

i think u mean "except"

More bad US data news. Throw it on the pile. BUT ... we've not broken 134.3 yet due to sterling strength, along with euro and yen strength, so the battle continues. Common wisdon & chart reading says we'll go down, but the mechanics behind a strong sterling and weak USD aren't helping our case for a GY drop. Keeping all options open, including ANOTHER reversal/retest upwards for GY.

call me crazy but i think GBP/JPY will spike to 135.25 or 135.35 and then tank so far did the first deep of 150 pips...i see a correction of 100 pips and then will seriusly drop dead. i think same with the overbought dollar and GBP/usd

what do u guys think?

I am too new to think here, but we are at the cross roads and down looks good to me.

np mate, i'll rar it and send you through skype later

I think the GJ is still in the hit and run mode. UJ inthe 87s where as GU 1.53s. Don't see the UJ going alot lower, so the GU would be th determing factor in a substantial drop and that doesn't look to be on the table just yet.

Of course I could be wrong, but I have a small long position on UJ for a retest of 88.

Cheers

I've stopped posting much here for several reasons, but one of the most recent is the lack of unbiased posts I see more than not. I've been reading some trading psychology books in my spare time and it's sad to see how many people's posts are enough to show their true colors which also happens to be the polar opposite mindset of what a successful trader needs. Words and phrases like "can't", "won't", "the highest it will go" or "lowest it will go", "is going to go in XXX direction" are completely preconceived beliefs in what the market will do when in actuality nobody knows what the market will ever do. It's of no surprise to see why so many fail.

Ok, rant done.

Here's what I'm seeing and I'll lay out a few scenarios for potential trades. For the record, I'm currently flat but was short from 135.50 and targeted 134.20... it took about 36 hours to develop, but I'm alright with being patient especially in these choppy times.

Right now, we're bound horizontally by approximately 135.89 and 131.28. I tend to trade the higher time-frames with the lowest one I base trades on being the 1H. Looking below at the 4H chart it's evident we're in a rising trend channel as we're bound between the horizontal support and resistance mentioned earlier.

So what's the plan? Easy. We're looking for unbiased, low risk trades. Ones where if we're stopped out, we know we're wrong and we don't lose much figuring it out.

I'm going to list out several scenarios in an attempt to give everyone an idea of what to do regardless of what happens so please bear with me:

1) Up from here... If this happens we really have two potential scenarios. (A) we get rejected again prior to 136.00 and it would be a low risk trade to sell below this level, placing stops just above. If we get stopped out, we know we're wrong and it's time for scenario (B) If 136.00 is broken it's time to go long, but it would be wise to see a nice run-up through 136.00 and then a retest near that level before taking longs. Then we can place our stop slightly below 136.00 and let her run higher.

2) Down from here and breaking the lower end of the trend channel (I'm specifically mentioning this scenario before the next one). If this occurs, we'd be wise to wait for a retest of the lower end of the trend-channel to prove as resistance. Then we can let her drop to our horizontal support in the 131.28 area. We'd be wise to take profit there and perhaps flip our position to long, doing the exact opposite of our trades in scenario #1 above... easy enough!

3) Down from here but bounce from lower end of trend-channel. If we head lower to and approach this trend-channel support I would not hesitate to take a lower risk long position. Our stop loss can sit slightly out of reach of the channel and if hit, we know we're now in scenario #2 above and follow that accordingly. If we indeed bounce we find ourselves in scenario #1 above and trade that accordingly.

So to sum it up, we're watching for either scenario #1 or #3 to happen initially to trigger a trade. Once it does, we can play our game plans from there without any emotion getting in the way. We've laid out our trade plans for all possible scenarios and we know what we want to do whatever the market decides to do. Because remember, the market can do anything at any given time. Our job is not to predict it, but rather be ready for it.

I do this for every trade and if you want to be successful you should too. I hope this post helps people. If it does, I will try to post more frequently with setups like this, but honestly this thread has become such a wasteland that it's hard to participate anymore.

Happy trading!

Geppy.

Thank you for a well thought out and informative post. It is really appreciated.

Hello Geppy

I like your #3 scenario ....I'm short from here and going to see if it will get to the 133.50 area by tonights London session..I know 100 pips is probably pushing it, but I like the way the 4hr looks with bollinger bands..it seems feasible.

I think the 134 GJ low is in and should hold. S&P index should have it's low in too. FTSE has packed up. This summer low volume period is looking to be a great vehicle with which to provide/control market declines & seemingly eliminate a lot of chaos.

No more news today, and even if bad news comes along, we're in a mode of disregarding it. There's just enough money hitting the markets to keep things bouyant. We're likely to get another down day on equity markets tomorrow, but it shouldn't be too dramatic, just expected and normal.

Will have to assess things later, but I just don't see any fx flash or even slow crashes like many are expecting; sterling, along with the euro have gained respect again, as senseless as that may be. GY is likely to float for the rest of the day in a slim range. Not expecting much from Asia tonight; London may not bring much for Friday, partially awaiting CPI direction in the US morning.

EDIT: Am still though holding shorts, looking for that 133.3 1st target; if GY heads up, I'll be out at BE.

np..thanks mate..

qwertymyfx...ya thanks for corrected me....too fast typing make me did the error..my bad english ...anyway appreciate ur concern..thanks

Great advice and a Free Bottle of Patience Pills ..... Thanks!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=229092

my humble advice is wait...till H4 n today close clear then go for ur position...otherwise maybe too early for that...

good luck

g

Hi Geppy,

Nice analyse, i short dragon since 2 days, add, take profit and short again.
What i see : short since 135,30 (doji 4H) still keep my short because we are below the daily pivot, i will start to book some profit at the weekly and monthly pivot, area 133,50 (if we go there, also same area of the ascending TL), if it break this area, will keep some short to TP2 132,50 and TP3 131,60.

For this moment i'm more bear, i will change to Long in case if 136 wont hold (according to your scenario 1).First Lets see what happen on Daily resitance.

Tomorrow Friday usually more action.

Keep posting, nice to see you again. If you want i have some interesting ebook (since 36 hours i read some).

Green pips to you

Yes, patience is really important now with the way PA has been behaving. Trade is already set to BE, so I'm content to see what happens.

thanks for the advice though