Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Tuesday, July 13, 2010 01:34:38
*(UK) MAY DCLG UK HOUSE PRICES Y/Y: 11.0% V 10.2%E
- Prior YoY revised from 10.1% to %
- No revisions

how dip is your dip bro?....

Bro gu has made support already .Now time for bulls .U will see in few days.If the price falls also I will buy .Thats my plan.Daily is bullish .

yea good question, I'm still don't see any sign of change in direction, so will short all pops.

..ok good luck bro

Thanks and green pips for u too.

1.5050 cleared. Next 1.5080 .clear that we fly .Will clear half at 1.5080 and other stop amended.

will close long, at 1.5140 take small short there.

Small short triggered.Lets see .Good luck all.

what is your tp ?

No targets for now.Will let u know later.

i have 1.5110 as first

Gu stopped out -30 pips .see u all 2moro.

Selling now 134.04 targets 132.81 and 131.81

the week before last week, we had very narrow bar with huge volume on it and we spent the whole week after that strugling with 1.52. Now if they really wanna take this down, shouldn't this up move b regarded as some sort of clearing the week shorts? Also we still have rounded top on daily and the last time that this happned we were 1.67ish if I remember correctly and we went down for a good 400 pips. Just wanna know why are your thoughts on daily chart .

We're no doubt into strange trading times for the sterling. It's been ranging for weeks now, albeit it with lower highs; if this equity melt-up continues, 1.55 and 136.x are formidable resistances - that would imply a DOW of over 10600 S&P of over 1130 (roughly) and TA-wise, I can't see them lasting. But the earnings bars have been set low and along with disregarding real-people circumstances, the market makers are painting a rosy picture, while nothing's changed, and in fact is getting worse - that's because the jobless, census workers & burger flippers are about as far from the Wall Street boys club as you can get. (It's actually quite funny to watch the bullish talking heads on Bloomberg/CNBC: interviewer politeness prevents real questions and circumstances from entering the debate)

The 200+ pip rise for EURUSD is quite telling of the shenanigans underway. I don't know exactly what they'd be (short covering, CB buying), but I think we're looking at default USD weakness, which is driving up the euro and dragging sterling along with it, along with the yen crosses - basically, they're all weak, just euro currently isn't perceived as weak & disregarded as the USD. The market conditions for the euro have not changed in light of Portugal's more-important-than-Greece downgrade, UK warnings, yet they rally ~200 pips ... perhaps on a bank test designed in coordination with the squad that managed the euro banks to where they are today. Successfuly Greek auction bond you say? Sure that's one way of calling it, when you're really buying a piece of Greece! US earnings will have ups and downs, but would not be surprised to see reality completely avoided through the summer. But by September, things will change drastically, if they already haven't by then.

Have a read of this just published piece from Ashraf; these positions and sentiments don't change overnight - without reason - the way the equity market has this week:

July 13, 2010 14:46 ET: BoA/Merrill Lynch Fund Survey finds the biggest deterioration in sentiment among portfolio managers since 2005 according to MNI. A net 14% of global fund managers expect the real economy to weaken over the next 12 months, compared to +24% expecting it to strengthen in last months survey. That is the largest 1-month fall in expectations since mid-2005. In April, when U.S. equities posted new 2010 highs, a net 61% of those polled looked for the real economy to strengthen in the coming 12 months. Portfolio managers reduced their equity allocation to 11% overweight from +24% in June, 30% in May and a +52% in April.

P.S. - I know this doesn't really address your question, but that's only because I can make both a bullish and bearish short/mid term case for sterling, and yet it's (ranging) movement really comes down to a mixture of other factors, hence, the ranging or hitched PA. That's why we're seeing so few posters here, and so many varying opinions - things are as clear as mud. Just MHO though. In the meantime, I am buying lows and selling highs.

Nice analysis...

another scary thing is how compressed EMA's are on H4 and H3 TF's....really really squeezed with 6 EMA on top which means if it gives away, we can easily go 500 pip down... just an observation....not saying that it should happen soon...generally the way that it works with higher TF's and EMA is that it takes a while for the PA to go south ...we have already been in this crazy range for 4 weeks....it is npt not bad if you are a kind of hit and run trader, but kinda get into you after a while....

Short gj @ 134.06, see if I can get 100 pips out of this.

I would say lock in that 100 pip and let it run....Have you looked at EMA's?...compressed like Hell

Anyone looking at Aussie? We hit Monthly R1, but the stuborn that she is may wanna go another 300 pip up...