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vsa with Malcolm

  • #1,221
  • Jul 11, 2010 12:41pm Jul 11, 2010 12:41pm
Quoting bruceli
on daily or weekly basis, GU market seems weak, however, can this be a temporary strength ? weakness - strenthg also relative issue, as in a up trend
we used to see dips are bought which buyers come and support up trend as occured so far for gu till lets say 2 weeks ago thursday... (last 5-6 days were sideaways after that 250-300 pips up move)...

also, we have seen in last 5-6 days 1,5090 was support and in these areas bought and we have seen some 100-150 pips increase during these rangind days..

so, we may see probably some increase again...
???


I try not to predict the market because I'm no good at it. However please refer to this post.
  • #1,222
  • Jul 11, 2010 5:51pm Jul 11, 2010 5:51pm
The first chart is mal's TG chart of the Euro on a daily tf from last week. He noted the possible "End of a Rising Market" at the right edge.

I remarked that my chart did not show the high volume , but rather low volume creating a possible No Demand.

The second chart is my chart a week later.

The thing I am struck with is that now it would appear that the No Demand is a polar bear in Hawaii. Actually, it was always a Polar bear in the sense that price is above the BPL so one would not want to be taking shorts in the first place.

Thus my question is, is that a valid long signal on the chart? We have strength in the background, a change in trend as defined by price moving above the BPL and we have a low volume No Supply candle after an Effort to Rise which may also be pushing thru supply?
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #1,223
  • Jul 11, 2010 9:13pm Jul 11, 2010 9:13pm
Well I'm just beggining on VSA trading, so I'm just speaking what's in my mind But I wouldn't go long on that HiddenGap, I don't see any accumulation in the background. All I see is falling pressure (down bar with low volume) and no supply as you call it. Then there is an effort to go up with a ND, that's weakness right there. Plus there are many ND bars before that one too. I'd see what's on the higher TF though.
  • #1,224
  • Jul 11, 2010 10:00pm Jul 11, 2010 10:00pm
Just my two cents on the GBPUSD.

I think that a safer place to go and take a long trade is too wait for price to come down to 1.4900 area and then look for some strength to possibly come in at this level. If we see stopping volume in this area then possibly look for an entry if we see NS or testing after the stopping volume.

Anyone else thinking along the same lines as myself?

Scott
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  • #1,225
  • Edited Jul 12, 2010 12:05am Jul 11, 2010 10:02pm | Edited Jul 12, 2010 12:05am
I wouldn't go long either. It looks like potential weakness in the background to me, not strength. That said, there is no confirmation to go short either. Wait and see time.

P.S. People are painting my house, and my trading rig is currently under 2 or 3 drops sheets. I will probably be out of action for a week or so.
  • #1,226
  • Edited 10:41pm Jul 11, 2010 10:38pm | Edited 10:41pm
Don't you have to look at the No Demand and No Supply bars on the EURUSD daily chart in the light of the holiday weekend in the US, hence the unusually low volume on both days? The first of the two doesn't look particularly out of line in terms of volume, but for an NFP release day it was abnormally quiet.
  • #1,227
  • Jul 11, 2010 11:22pm Jul 11, 2010 11:22pm
Quoting Scottstone
Just my two cents on the GBPUSD.

I think that a safer place to go and take a long trade is too wait for price to come down to 1.4900 area and then look for some strength to possibly come in at this level. If we see stopping volume in this area then possibly look for an entry if we see NS or testing after the stopping volume.

Anyone else thinking along the same lines as myself?

Scott

I concur as I am looking for price action to dictate where we go from here. Keeping my powder dry and looking for a VSA development on Cable as well.
  • #1,228
  • Jul 12, 2010 1:43am Jul 12, 2010 1:43am
Quoting HiddenGap
Let's start with some definitions:

(1) No Demand: a narrow range UP candle on volume less than the previous two candles, that closes in the middle or low of its range.

(2) Test: a narrow range DOWN candle on volume less than the previous two candles, that closes in the middle or high of its range.

The next two definitions are technically not VSA terms, but they are very important.

(3) Buying Bar: a bar/candle that makes a higher high and not a lower low than the previous bar/candle.

(4) Selling Bar: a bar/candle that makes a...

EXCELLENT POST!!!
  • #1,229
  • Jul 12, 2010 2:56am Jul 12, 2010 2:56am
sometimes, i think about the total range and time elapsed of up and down bars, and whether there is any correlation between them..

i mean, as you can see in the graph, up bars are more narrow and more in amounts, whereas the down bars' spreads are bigger .

in total, lets say price increase for example 20 pips in 20 bars, and it decreases some 15 pips in 3-4 bars...

and i was wondering if this can be any sign of weakness of strength .... and if this price action has any relation with what i ve read "lock in or out" trades here...

cheers.
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  • #1,230
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:52am Jul 12, 2010 7:52am
Its S/D zone ploted correctly? can someone check it please?
Thanks.
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  • #1,231
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:58am Jul 12, 2010 7:58am
Quoting lower
Its S/D zone ploted correctly? can someone check it please?
Thanks.
Not quite sure what you plotted there but the way I do it is by taking the highest volume bar of the previous period and then highlighting the full body range of the bar with the rectangle box.
  • #1,232
  • Jul 12, 2010 8:07am Jul 12, 2010 8:07am
Quoting wh1zz0
Not quite sure what you plotted there but the way I do it is by taking the highest volume bar of the previous period and then highlighting the full body range of the bar with the rectangle box.
I mentioned that this will be SD zone for next period coz there is selling into upmove (supply enters).If I'm correct in fact.

And where is that bar u mentioned?
  • #1,233
  • Jul 12, 2010 8:37am Jul 12, 2010 8:37am
Quoting lower
I mentioned that this will be SD zone for next period coz there is selling into upmove (supply enters).If I'm correct in fact.

And where is that bar u mentioned?
First off, from my own perspective, you cannot know where the area would be until the day closes. Therefore you shouldn't try to predict it.

Secondly, I like to think of these areas as levels where orders could be potentially stacked because of the high activity occurring at the level. Think about it logically.

Thirdly, for this type of projection on the charts (i.e S/D levels), I do not rely only on the MT4 data for my levels. But some MT4 broker data do come quite close though. From my chart below I have used MT4 (FXPro) for this illustration just so you get what I'm talking about.

Notice how I measured the full range of the bar- BID/ASK. Just try to observe them more logically you might develop something but to answer your question, below is how I draw mine.

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  • #1,234
  • Jul 12, 2010 8:49am Jul 12, 2010 8:49am
Quoting wh1zz0
First off, from my own perspective, you cannot know where the area would be until the day closes. Therefore you shouldn't try to predict it.
Attachment
OK I'm clear now what u mean.
Thanks.
  • #1,235
  • Jul 12, 2010 8:58am Jul 12, 2010 8:58am
Hi, I got a question about a trade I did on USD/JPY. I saw heavy distribution on the background, and I entered the trade on a failed test (where the ellipse is) to the lower trendline. But there was a support below (MML), so should I have waited for the prices to break this support?

And btw, what period should I use for MML for 5 mins charts? I think there are way too many lines on the chart lol
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  • #1,236
  • Jul 12, 2010 9:55am Jul 12, 2010 9:55am
check volume on EU daily.

Does it show Smart Money buying?

Regards,
Wajid
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  • #1,237
  • Jul 12, 2010 9:59am Jul 12, 2010 9:59am
Hi HG, u mentioned

E,F&G: All the previous weakness has caused the market to move sideways. We see further signs of weakness in the form of Up Thrusts, Up thrusts over 2 bars, and 2 bar reversals.

The market has now entered a distribution phase. Our key here need be that we see weakness in the background and price is beginning to trade on either side of the BPL. We know that we only want to take longs when we are above it and shorts when we are below. We also know with the weakness in the background we should only be targeting shorts. We also know that the path of least resistance is also defined by what side of MeanSwing we are on. Prices remain above it so we can't yet get short.

what if the daily trend is up and you see weakness on 15min charts background, will you wait for strength to come before you trade the 1 hr n 15min?

Cheers,
Bethel

Quoting HiddenGap
I used to have a major problem with Gavin and Malcolmb. "They call themselves VSA traders yet they have indicators on their charts",I would say to myself. What I have come to understand is that while they have indicators on their charts, they are not indicator traders. They merely use indicators to indicate trend. Gavin does not go long simply because his bars turn green and his diamonds turn green. Mal does not go short simply because the Hulls cross or turn red. Both in fact are skillfully reading the chart to determine the relationship...
  • #1,238
  • Jul 12, 2010 10:55am Jul 12, 2010 10:55am
off topic, but I can't seem to get esignal to plot daily or weekly volume. Anyone able to post a snapshot of esignal with daily or weekly volume plotted.
  • #1,239
  • Jul 12, 2010 11:01am Jul 12, 2010 11:01am
Quoting wajid
check volume on EU daily.

Does it show Smart Money buying?

Regards,
Wajid
i am afraid that the volume your broker showed is not correct. i compared it with three different broker feeds and all showing the same volume -and this is not the same like yours.
hth
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #1,240
  • Jul 12, 2010 11:21am Jul 12, 2010 11:21am
first, the data feed seems to be incorrect... try fxcm for instance.

second, regardless of data feed... what is i see on your chart is a bearish bar on huge volume. until proven otherwise, i would say smart money bought on the dip.

Quoting wajid
check volume on EU daily.

Does it show Smart Money buying?

Regards,
Wajid
Nihil Sine Deo.
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