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vsa with Malcolm

  • #1,181
  • Jul 9, 2010 8:10am Jul 9, 2010 8:10am
added small posie on gu
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  • #1,182
  • Jul 9, 2010 8:20am Jul 9, 2010 8:20am
Quoting lower
added small posie on gu
I like this trade and agree with you. +1 tick stop already set, Lets see what she can do.
  • #1,183
  • Jul 9, 2010 8:55am Jul 9, 2010 8:55am
5080 level is defended by buyers.volume there is no very high (not enough for upmove) but also selling pressure its not heavy.Below that level are probably stops gathered. We still must counting with huge supply during UK session.Lets see what happens.
  • #1,184
  • Jul 9, 2010 8:58am Jul 9, 2010 8:58am
weekly profile for aud. note the consolidation (distribution? re-accumulation?) @ 0.8750 area.
once they start selling, down we go.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #1,185
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:10am Jul 9, 2010 9:10am
same thing for u-j: weekly profile, most traded area @ 88.45.
waiting for a short confirmation.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #1,186
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:14am Jul 9, 2010 9:14am
Quoting Intel
Some will undoubtedly buy into the rise in price and sell early with a small profit.

The SM dont want ANY new buyers at all because when the herd buy, it is the SM who sells to them....
intel, sir, i ve a question ... where sm takes profit ? do they finish TP before or at the top ?? if yes, what does markin down mean just after top ?

besides, we always assume that, buy at low, sell at high.. couldnt they make the reverse ? sell at high ? buy at low... ? i mean, they can manage this play on two ways ?

cheers..
  • #1,187
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:16am Jul 9, 2010 9:16am
Quoting Scrat
weekly profile for aud. note the consolidation (distribution? re-accumulation?) @ 0.8750 area.
once they start selling, down we go.
Hi,
What would be a good price to short aud? Around 0.8760? Or would be better to wait until Monday?

Thanks in advance
  • #1,188
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:18am Jul 9, 2010 9:18am
Quoting lower
5080 level is defended by buyers.volume there is no very high (not enough for upmove) but also selling pressure its not heavy.Below that level are probably stops gathered. We still must counting with huge supply during UK session.Lets see what happens.
yes, i think so...

but, lower, i still wonder how those very very dramatic moves happen ? we have many examples of them.. if i am not wrong, mentioning for gu, in february i think, one sunday it opened with gap almost60-70 pips below, and that gap had been closed 3 4 weeks later.. because, that sunday nigth, i mean in the beginning of opening, i ve seen 400 pips decrease..

yes, how can be occured this down move ? what kind of price action is this...

is it clear ?
  • #1,189
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:18am Jul 9, 2010 9:18am
can some1 please tell me why i got stopped out?

i entered when i saw tt the down trend has started and the circled part - isn't tt a retrace as its a no demand up bar? =(

struggling...

Bethel
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  • #1,190
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:21am Jul 9, 2010 9:21am
any thoughts on the daily ?
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  • #1,191
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:33am Jul 9, 2010 9:33am
i dont know what 'tt' is, but what i do see is stopping volume, which is strength, and your no demand has high volume, lower then previous 2 yes, but still very high. and the next bar doesn't go lower than the no demand. i just see stopping vol/ sign of strength, not seeing a reason to short.


Quoting Bethel
can some1 please tell me why i got stopped out?

i entered when i saw tt the down trend has started and the circled part - isn't tt a retrace as its a no demand up bar? =(

struggling...

Bethel
  • #1,192
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:33am Jul 9, 2010 9:33am
definitely wait for next week.
now about the entry - considering the range, the best entry would be close to the top of the range, 0.8770; ideal for r/r; if price won't get there, then a break of lower limit might work as well - 0.8725.

Quoting need-help
Hi,
What would be a good price to short aud? Around 0.8760? Or would be better to wait until Monday?

Thanks in advance
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #1,193
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:36am Jul 9, 2010 9:36am
Quoting Scrat
definitely wait for next week.
now about the entry - considering the range, the best entry would be close to the top of the range, 0.8770; ideal for r/r; if price won't get there, then a break of lower limit might work as well - 0.8725.

Thanks bro
  • #1,194
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:45am Jul 9, 2010 9:45am
Quoting Scrat
same thing for u-j: weekly profile, most traded area @ 88.45.
waiting for a short confirmation.
your indi in chart is so nice can share to check it
  • #1,195
  • Jul 9, 2010 10:06am Jul 9, 2010 10:06am
Quoting bruceli
yes, i think so...

but, lower, i still wonder how those very very dramatic moves happen ? we have many examples of them.. if i am not wrong, mentioning for gu, in february i think, one sunday it opened with gap almost60-70 pips below, and that gap had been closed 3 4 weeks later.. because, that sunday nigth, i mean in the beginning of opening, i ve seen 400 pips decrease..

yes, how can be occured this down move ? what kind of price action is this...

is it clear ?
I point again to rule supply vs. demand. I really dont know why SM selling that huge amounts but its possible as u can see on charts.There is nobody (again SM) who want to buy. If price still fallin, at some level comes panic into market (as u can see 6.May this year). then are sold very huge ammounts. This accelerating selling across the board. In FX market its approx.the same but difference is that you only buying (in short positions you buying 2nd currency of the cross, hedge funds operate at this idea).
About Sundays opening levels. There are interbank operations and these resulting into price changes during the weekend.

Im not very skilled in theory of financial market (I already gather some books from our university, so maybe I will answer after I done with them)
Perhaps someone can explain it more in detail.Till then I stay with technical trading.

PS: Sry for my english.
  • #1,196
  • Jul 9, 2010 10:17am Jul 9, 2010 10:17am
2 weeks support line @5080 was smashed out.If there was stops of longs below as I think then triggering them will accelerate price dropping.
I see minor support @1.5000-10.
EU is without change so looks like GBP only selling (EURGBP poped into new highs)

Interesting end of the week action.
nice weekend to all.

Edit: is any IRC room out there for this thread? Its better to discuss there during the sessions.Forum I think is better for detailed examples instead daily talks.Cuz.
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  • #1,197
  • Jul 9, 2010 10:26am Jul 9, 2010 10:26am
Quoting lower
I point again to rule supply vs. demand. I really dont know why SM selling that huge amounts but its possible as u can see on charts.There is nobody (again SM) who want to buy. If price still fallin, at some level comes panic into market (as u can see 6.May this year). then are sold very huge ammounts. This accelerating selling across the board. In FX market its approx.the same but difference is that you only buying (in short positions you buying 2nd currency of the cross, hedge funds operate at this idea).
About Sundays opening levels. There are...
yes, and sm wanna us to involve in this game, take losing positions.. unless we take our positions, it should be useless to mark up or down prices so fastly..

i remember also that some friends cannot execute any order maybe half or one hour during those periods.. they probably let people execute orders at bottoms where it will no go down further..

my god, i got smashed!
  • #1,198
  • Jul 9, 2010 10:40am Jul 9, 2010 10:40am
Quoting Bethel
can some1 please tell me why i got stopped out?

i entered when i saw tt the down trend has started and the circled part - isn't tt a retrace as its a no demand up bar? =(

struggling...

Bethel
No reason to short as there were consecutive Stopping Volumes at MML 6/8

If you entered short you should have quit at the 2nd Stopping Volume
  • #1,199
  • Jul 9, 2010 11:00am Jul 9, 2010 11:00am
Quoting Bethel
can some1 please tell me why i got stopped out?

i entered when i saw tt the down trend has started and the circled part - isn't tt a retrace as its a no demand up bar? =(

struggling...

Bethel
As others pointed there was no reason to short.After no demand you need confirmation that its really a no demand. Always wait for result.In this case expected result of no demand (and continuing selling) was downbar closed lower as ND low with high vol.For conservative entry u need to wait for break below stopping vol bar low.

Effort vs Result.Supply vs Demand.Have u read MTM already??
  • #1,200
  • Edited 12:01pm Jul 9, 2010 11:36am | Edited 12:01pm
GU cant find solid buyers at 1.5050 levels.There is no real selling pressure but also no buying so 1.5000 is possible (realy dont know if today.)Market is thin.
I set sellstop below 1.5050.

Edit: closed all posies.+110,+44.Thanks to all wise heads here for sharing ideas.
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