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trading forex using Gartley Patterns

  • #201
  • Jul 8, 2010 10:19am Jul 8, 2010 10:19am
Quoting Accumulation
Might be an ending diagonal with high volume on 30m.
not sure about the 30M, but have a nice reaction on the 4H and daily's...
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Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #202
  • Jul 8, 2010 10:51am Jul 8, 2010 10:51am
Quoting ChinaWombat
not sure about the 30M, but have a nice reaction on the 4H and daily's...
Nice chart CW, what brand pattern indicator are you using? The ending diagonal on 30m confirmed the bearish gartley entry for me. Shorted at 90.


Never mind, see it at the bottom of your chart!
  • #203
  • Jul 8, 2010 10:22pm Jul 8, 2010 10:22pm
didn't quite get to the D=.886XA but has confluence with a bull triangle.
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Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #204
  • Jul 8, 2010 11:05pm Jul 8, 2010 11:05pm
all the talking heads on TV over the last 24 hours has been for higher aussie but i'm not so sure

if this BearBAT does work out and it exceeds XA/XC points by 1.27, or greater, then it sets up a potential bullish gartley or butterfly (not sure which with the .69% from the .8060 low to XA) for the much longer time frame.. will have to let price reveal itself, and of course have this intial bearBAT succeed.. so price targets could be .8240 and .7880

currently all the cricket countries, and Canada, (also known as commonwealt countries) have this similar structure, so it will be an interesting end to the week to see which way london will attack them on their open
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Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #205
  • Jul 8, 2010 11:43pm Jul 8, 2010 11:43pm
Weird, my kor doesn't show that audusd pattern at all, but when i do it manually its pretty close. does point B have to be at least .38 for the indie to trigger? (for a bat pattern) and also, with its clear momentum would you wait for it to reach at least the 2.618 extension to consider a short?

Quoting ChinaWombat
all the talking heads on TV over the last 24 hours has been for higher aussie but i'm not so sure

if this BearBAT does work out and it exceeds XA/XC points by 1.27, or greater, then it sets up a potential bullish gartley or butterfly (not sure which with the .69% from the .8060 low to XA) for the much longer time frame.. will have to let price reveal itself, and of course have this intial bearBAT succeed.. so price targets could be .8240 and .7880

currently all the cricket countries, and Canada, (also known as commonwealt countries) have this...
  • #206
  • Jul 9, 2010 12:17am Jul 9, 2010 12:17am
Hello Everyone,I'll be watching this one. We have descent symmetry .61.8 and 61.8. Top trendline. Take care,Tex
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  • #207
  • Jul 9, 2010 12:51am Jul 9, 2010 12:51am
Quoting reynante
Weird, my kor doesn't show that audusd pattern at all, but when i do it manually its pretty close. does point B have to be at least .38 for the indie to trigger? (for a bat pattern) and also, with its clear momentum would you wait for it to reach at least the 2.618 extension to consider a short?
it's not a KOR pattern, just my manual calculations...i make it gold as that seems to be one of the few colours KOR doesn't use, and maybe it will strike gold for me!!! (lol)....

on the 2.618 question i'll wait for london to open to see what they do...if they take it up strongly then i'll stay out, but if it just splutters around then might throw in a short ...

on what triggers the indie i'm not sure, as there is a .38 and a .50 that could be both used and it didn't use either of them
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #208
  • Jul 9, 2010 1:07am Jul 9, 2010 1:07am
ah ok, i guess I should really start manually drawing my patternns as well! how finicky are you with the AB retracement? do you give it a range or is "close" enough is what you look for?

Quoting ChinaWombat
it's not a KOR pattern, just my manual calculations...i make it gold as that seems to be one of the few colours KOR doesn't use, and maybe it will strike gold for me!!! (lol)....

on the 2.618 question i'll wait for london to open to see what they do...if they take it up strongly then i'll stay out, but if it just splutters around then might throw in a short ...

on what triggers the indie i'm not sure, as there is a .38 and a .50 that could be both used and it didn't use either of them
  • #209
  • Jul 9, 2010 1:37am Jul 9, 2010 1:37am
Quoting reynante
ah ok, i guess I should really start manually drawing my patternns as well! how finicky are you with the AB retracement? do you give it a range or is "close" enough is what you look for?


i'm generally pretty strict on XB and XD but it doesn't always work out... i like to have a pretty good looking XA impulse wave to begin everything (which is where indies sometimes fail)

have to be flexible I think and need look for other supporting factors, like trend lines, candles with long wicks and stay away from engulfing ones....

if we're near a significant support/resistance then i am way less finicky on the ratio's and will look for anything with a harmonic nature that can help support a position....
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #210
  • Jul 9, 2010 1:52am Jul 9, 2010 1:52am
another interesting pattern, a gartley this time....i guess if the triple top in cable at 1.5240 (holds or doesn't) will determine the outcome
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Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #211
  • Jul 9, 2010 7:03am Jul 9, 2010 7:03am
Hi,

I've shorted AUDCAD on 4hrly bearish gartley @0.9140, SL @0.9190, P1 @0.9055, P2 @0.8910. I've just banked in P1 @0.9050 and moved SL @0.9130.

Regards,
Toyogo
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  • #212
  • Jul 9, 2010 2:11pm Jul 9, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting tex123
Hello Everyone,I'll be watching this one. We have descent symmetry .61.8 and 61.8. Top trendline. Take care,Tex Attachment

First target achieved at 41 pips back down to the 38.2 level from the convergence of 78/127---little over 1 to 1. I'm now closing second postion right at the 38.2 again. You all have a good weekend. Tex
  • #213
  • Jul 9, 2010 11:05pm Jul 9, 2010 11:05pm
hey guys what indicator are you using?

im having a problem lately with my ZUP 82 and 86 with WRR..
the indicators are not giving me enough patterns especially in M5 were their is a lot of pattern per day i need help guys... thanks
  • #214
  • Jul 10, 2010 2:08pm Jul 10, 2010 2:08pm
Hi All,
I have been reading this thread and find gartley patterns quite interesting. How often do these patterns work and how often do they fail? Do you use typically close your positions at the first profit target or do you use multiple profit targets?

There was a skype chat room mentioned earlier in the thread. Is that still open?

Thank you for sharing.
  • #215
  • Edited 10:02pm Jul 11, 2010 9:47pm | Edited 10:02pm
Quoting potomac
Hi All,
I have been reading this thread and find gartley patterns quite interesting. How often do these patterns work and how often do they fail? Do you use typically close your positions at the first profit target or do you use multiple profit targets?

There was a skype chat room mentioned earlier in the thread. Is that still open?

Thank you for sharing.
Hi,

Few points I would like to share on gartley:

a. pattern is only a pattern, thus you still need to trade along the trend.

b. when gartley is formed, the most difficult decision is to determine the Point "D" as it may extend further after your entry. Thus you must use other technical indicator to help such as support/resistance, trend line, major fib level, candlestick formation (hammer etc).

c. after you enter the trade "correctly",i.e. the gartley pattern is valid and the price goes according to your direction. The most difficult part is to determine the exit point as very often that the winning trade become a losing trade or break even or much less profit. One of the way is to use multiple exits p1, p2 and p3.

d. few articles I read has a winning rate of 70% theoretically. In an actual fact, a lot of these winning trade may become a losing trade, thus exit strategy is even more important.

Let me quote you my last trade on AUDCAD as an example, see link : http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=211
I enter short @0.9140; exit p1 @0.9050 and adjust SL @0.9135, p2 @0.9000. I am now on a free trade with +90pips on 1st position (I use p1 and p2 only) but 2nd position may be +140pips or +5pips. So this is considered a success and winning trade.

However, if the price didn't reach my p1 and rebounded up to stop out the trade, this winning trade will become a losing trade. Thus it is very important in how do you determine the p1 - should it be +40pips, +50pip or +100pips? or a fib level etc? I use fib level on CD leg - p1 @38.2% of CD leg, p2 @61.8% of CD leg.

Regards,
Toyogo
  • #216
  • Jul 12, 2010 12:21am Jul 12, 2010 12:21am
Quoting tankbeta
hey guys what indicator are you using?

im having a problem lately with my ZUP 82 and 86 with WRR..
the indicators are not giving me enough patterns especially in M5 were their is a lot of pattern per day i need help guys... thanks
did you do a visual look through to see if there were any patterns?
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #217
  • Jul 12, 2010 12:37am Jul 12, 2010 12:37am
Hi potomac,

let me quote another example (CHFJPY) of gartley pattern formed but winner become loser:

I shorted @82.10, SL @82.70; it didn't hit my p1 @80.80 (due to spread), then stopped out.... i.e. my initial +130pips winner become a loser of -60pips...

If you look at the current EURJPY chart that bearish gartley is formed last Friday @112.79, then hit the low @111.65 and now (at EST 1:40am) is @112.12, this trade may become a losing trade if not manage properly!


Regards,
Toyogo
Attached Image
  • #218
  • Jul 12, 2010 1:25am Jul 12, 2010 1:25am
Quoting toyogo00
Hi,



I use fib level on CD leg - p1 @38.2% of CD leg, p2 @61.8% of CD leg.

Regards,
Toyogo

I can't agree more on Toyogo's TP1 @.382% (of CD) as a number of patterns react of this point, to retrace against you....u can have a BE S/L after that

As to success of the pattern, apart from a quantifiable equity study I have seen, which measured success as achieving the price target of .618 of CD, with s/l above X, on the 222 pattern, it achieved around 45% successful trades only. However it returned 35% versus -5% compared to a 'buy n hold' strategy. My experience is closer to this 45% succesful trades than the 70% that is bandied around in the market. Larry P says that he has verified the 70% through his long career, but also note that he has TP1 at 1*risk only and a move to TP2 @.38 for the 222 ( he has different TP for butterflys).

The measure of success is different for a number of gartley 'experts'. One guy says you only enter after B has been crossed, with targets of A, 1.27XA,.618XA. Needless to say that Larry P anD Scott Carney (who I believe are the current day masters), have already squared up the majority of their postions before A. Another guys considers the pattern successful once it reverses & leaves the PRZ! So it's quite subjective (which it really shouldn't be).

For me I consider it a success at .618% based on the equity study. So even a failed gartley can make me money if my first TP is a .38!
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #219
  • Jul 12, 2010 1:56am Jul 12, 2010 1:56am
Quoting ChinaWombat
For me I consider it a success at .618% based on the equity study. So even a failed gartley can make me money if my first TP is a .38!
Hi ChinaWombat,

I only consider a success if I winhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif, a loser is a loser http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon13.gifeven the pattern is a success!

There is no "what if ......", "I suppose to win....",....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif

Regards,
Toyogo
  • #220
  • Jul 12, 2010 2:06am Jul 12, 2010 2:06am
Hi,

Interest chart on AUDCAD, there was a 4hrly bearish gartley formed on last Friday, and now there is a 1hrly bullish gartley formed. It may serve as a warning sign of the exhaustion of the down trend on 4hrly chart.

Regards,
Toyogo
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