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Attachments: Steve Hopwood's Fib Target-level retracement auto-trader: compliments Simone
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Steve Hopwood's Fib Target-level retracement auto-trader: compliments Simone

  • #241
  • Jul 7, 2010 4:14am Jul 7, 2010 4:14am
Here is a PM exchange I have just had with Simon, and my reply. Have a read guys, and see what you think about how I propose carrying it forward.



"Steve,


I have a suggestion - for this and the EA I understand you are working on with NanningBob for his 4HR system. The idea is a fairly generic one designed to deal with the issue of long runs for counter trend systems.

I've been using NanningBob's 4HR counter trend system and while I like its ability to predict where a trend retrace is likely to occur, I am frightened by the 2 4 2 three level drawdown system, which can be caught out by sustained trends. (Just as the fib retrace robot can be). NB has successfully used it live, but it is subject to bad drawdowns during major trends and news driven crises, for example the Euro news runs during May of this year (NB was - 3383 pips for that month).

What I'm proposing is a simple stop and reverse modification to place the user in a trade in the direction of the trend (assuming initial conditions are met) until such time as the EAs for the NB 4HR system, or the Fib Retrace Robot would enter for the counter trend trade. At this point a stop and reverse order (which unfortunately needs to be coded on MT4) would be placed, closing the existing trade (which was with trend) and beginning a new trade in the opposite direction (i.e. counter trend, or retrace). This has the advantage of putting the trader in a very profitable trade if the trend continues (i.e. past T4 with the Fib Retrace Robot, or for example a run up the BB bands under NB's system). It also converts the big losers of both systems to big winners. Exact implementation needs a bit of thought for either system, but I think would be an especially useful variant for NB's approach, because the point at which the EA begins to look for counter trend entry is clearly defined (so a with trend enter can be made there) and also because it turns NB system major disadvantage into a major advantage.

regards
Simon"

My reply:

"This sounds like an idea well worth trying.

Thinking about FTLR, trades triggered at T1/T2 still open when the market passes the 200 could be losed and a sar trade opened in the opposite direction; TP at T4 perhaps. The sar trades could have a stop loss at T2 or T1, eliminating the danger of a long and sustained move against the original trade.

I am going to throw this open in the thread, to see what others think.

Thanks. Cheers."
  • #242
  • Edited 11:57am Jul 7, 2010 10:48am | Edited 11:57am
Seems like an excellent idea. I think the key is finding a good place to have the reverse trade placed (you don't really want that to be too often as it kills off the point of the original underlying strategy) and also the best place for the TP. I am not as familiar with fibs are many are, so perhaps people who trade fibs a lot would be able to give more input on whether the levels you are suggesting seem good. But basically I like the idea as it simultaneously deals with the issue of how to close runaway losers, and at the same time gives a solution which allows us to recover from them. Very clever thinking!

We also may want to test without the trend detection (beyond the original RSI trend detection of the original bot) as there may well be a lot more trades with the stop and reverse trades counter-balancing the ones that are lost.
  • #243
  • Jul 7, 2010 5:46pm Jul 7, 2010 5:46pm
Yes I like the idea of experimenting with a SAR

I think the SAR turning point needs to be adjustable to XX pips

or even better we can set it to the last Fib drawn @ Pivot or Sell or S1 or Low or T1
  • #244
  • Jul 8, 2010 2:22pm Jul 8, 2010 2:22pm
Very quiet round here..... Original Fib Retracer still doing good on H4 7 pairs.

You got something brewin', Steve?
  • #245
  • Edited 5:10pm Jul 8, 2010 4:27pm | Edited 5:10pm
Quoting Invisible
Very quiet round here..... Original Fib Retracer still doing good on H4 7 pairs.
I suppose that is because the bot is doing what it is intended to do and people are simply trying to work out whether it is the right bot for them.

Live this week, I have been running Simone and ftlr, on the majors and gj.

Live ftlr H1: no trades. On demo, on more charts, 4 trades that hit tp with pinpoint accuracy. I shall add it to more charts on my live account next week; a trading trollop it ain't, so overtrading is not a danger.

Simone has chugged away in the background. Some winners, some losers. Overall, a few pips up. Not much, but the right direction at least.

Quote
You got something brewin', Steve?
Yes, but I am a long way from thinking it is worth a thread of its own. No reason why my friends should not know what I am up to. Just bear in mind, this might be total rubbish.

I read somewhere recently that markets tend to continue in the direction they establish in the first day of the week. Now, I would love to claim that I spent countless sleepless hours researching this concept, but you all know I am clueless when it comes to detail.

What I did do was:

 

  1. load the charts one by one onto a demo account and set the time frame to W1.
  2. change the display to candlesticks, coloured red for falling and green for rising. This is simply how I like to do it.
  3. draw a vertical line over the previous week. This marks the start of the week.
  4. pull out to the D1 tf and look at the display. What I saw was this: the trade direction established on Monday/Tuesday continued for the rest of the week. If the weekly candle was rising by about half way through Tuesday (pulled out to the 4H), that was the direction for the week; vice-versa for a falling candle.

So, I coded the attached script. Remember this is a script not an ea, and needs to go in your Experts/Scripts folder.

The script is quite sophisticated, for a script. It will attempt to send all the trades for the pairs in the pairs to trade list. It will:

 

  1. ignore pairs that your criminal does not offer.
  2. disallow trading if the W1 candle is too small
  3. tell you if all the trade sends are successful
  4. tell you if any have failed and invite you to try again
  5. on a retry, detect existing trades and not send another

At lunchtime on Tuesday, I dragged the script onto a chart to enter the trades. The script does not set stops and tp's - that is not the point of this trading method. I set mptm to set a jumping stop every 100(0) pips, BEP 200(0) and left things to happen.

At lunchtime tomorrow (gmt) I shall close all the trades.

Since Tuesday, it has been fascinating to watch the trades gradually coming into line. At the time of writing, every one has at least a BE +20(0) stop loss. Two of the original have closed at BE +20(0) and BE + 120(0).

Upl is currently at +20%. It has been as high as just under a third of the balance ($500). This is slightly misleading, as it is an Alpari UK demo account. These characters have a leverage of 500:1; 20 pips at 0.01 lots = £1, a level I would not trade such a large basket of trades live on an account this size. I like to try to demo to destruction.

Highest dd has been just under 10%.

The attached Profit loss tracker has kept track of events. It is an ea and goes in the Experts folder. It lacks sophistication. All it does is keep a track of the upl and record the highest positive and lowest negative into a Global Variable. If you trade other systems on the account, it does not differentiate. At the start of a new trading week, you have to delete the Global Variables "Highest drawdown" and "Highest profit" (press the F3 key and take things from there).

In time, these things might emerge:

 

  1. the idea might be bollocks and I might simply have been lucky this week.
  2. the trade-entry timing might need adjustment - maybe to first thing Weds rather than some time on Tuesday.
  3. it might be better not to use mptm and simply allow trades to run.
  4. there might be a better time to close than lunchtime Friday, gmt.
  5. it might be better to use mptm to close the whole basket of trades at a pre-determined profit level. Live, would I really have allowed a +33% profit to run? I think not.

So, have a play with this little lot next week, guys, and see what you think.

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 W1 multi-trader script.mq4   10 KB | 323 downloads
File Type: mq4 Profit_loss tracker.mq4   2 KB | 337 downloads
  • #246
  • Jul 8, 2010 4:42pm Jul 8, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
I suppose that is because the bot is doing what it is intended to do and people are simply trying to work out whether it is the right bot for them.

Live this week, I have been running Simone and ftlr, on the majors and gj.

Live ftlr H1: no trades. On demo, on more charts, 4 trades that hit tp with pinpoint accuracy. I shall add it to more charts on my live account next week; a trading trollop it ain't, so overtrading is not a danger.

Simone has chugged away in the background. Some winners, some losers. Overall, a few pips up. Not much, but...
Good stuff Steve,

You might want to bear in mind that most trends either form or existing ones reverse on Thursday's at a much higher percentage than other days of the week.

  • #247
  • Jul 8, 2010 4:52pm Jul 8, 2010 4:52pm
@ Steve

Very interesting, Sir! Will definitely give it a go.

Do you think you might try adding Simon's suggestion to the Fib Retracer? This may be the missing link. (I feel we are so close with this bot - just the occasional runaway loser to contend with.)

@ Scooby

Invaluable insight as ever. So presumably that would mean running the script on Friday and leaving them open over the weekend before closing on Wednesday night? Or would it be best to run on Monday (to avoid open trades over the weekend) and close Weds night instead of at the end of the week?
  • #248
  • Jul 8, 2010 5:19pm Jul 8, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting scooby-doo
Good stuff Steve,

You might want to bear in mind that most trends either form or existing ones reverse on Thursday's at a much higher percentage than other days of the week.

Cheers Scoobs.

Bearing this in mind, perhaps someone would like to try closing the winners on Thursday morning and letting the losers run to see if they reverse? I don't have any losers but I remind everyone that this is an experiment on my part.

  • #249
  • Jul 8, 2010 5:19pm Jul 8, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
I suppose that is because the bot is doing what it is intended to do and people are simply trying to work out whether it is the right bot for them.

Live this week, I have been running Simone and ftlr, on the majors and gj.

Live ftlr H1: no trades. On demo, on more charts, 4 trades that hit tp with pinpoint accuracy. I shall add it to more charts on my live account next week; a trading trollop it ain't, so overtrading is not a danger.

Simone has chugged away in the background. Some winners, some losers. Overall, a few pips up. Not much, but...
Great Stuff Steve.......Looks to be right up my alley......will get set-up and be ready for the first of the week

whip

P.S. FTLR on D1 doing well....few trades but good
  • #250
  • Jul 8, 2010 5:21pm Jul 8, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting Invisible
Do you think you might try adding Simon's suggestion to the Fib Retracer? This may be the missing link. (I feel we are so close with this bot - just the occasional runaway loser to contend with.)
Yes. I am going to code this. Just not sure how. Not the coding, but the levels. The concept is easy, but software has no concept of 'concept'.

  • #251
  • Jul 8, 2010 5:22pm Jul 8, 2010 5:22pm
Quoting hiredwhip
Great Stuff Steve.......Looks to be right up my alley......will get set-up and be ready for the first of the week

whip

P.S. FTLR on D1 doing well....few trades but good
Have fun. I have.

  • #252
  • Jul 8, 2010 5:29pm Jul 8, 2010 5:29pm
Quoting Invisible
@ Steve

Very interesting, Sir! Will definitely give it a go.

Do you think you might try adding Simon's suggestion to the Fib Retracer? This may be the missing link. (I feel we are so close with this bot - just the occasional runaway loser to contend with.)

@ Scooby

Invaluable insight as ever. So presumably that would mean running the script on Friday and leaving them open over the weekend before closing on Wednesday night? Or would it be best to run on Monday (to avoid open trades over the weekend) and close Weds night instead of at the...
I wouldnt advise any retail trader to leave trades open over a weekend unless they are very experienced. It only takes some economic news or other disaster over the weekend to blow your account. One could say well that can happen anytime but the difference is that you have access to your trades via MT4 or telephone 24/5, so to some extent you have some control over the outcome. If something major happened on a Saturday when your broker feed is dead then you could end up with serious problem come market open where the prices jump 200 pips or worse.

Also, remember, forget what any retail broker says about gauaranteeing SL etc on your trades. That is a sales pitch. No broker can guarantee SL during unforseen circumstances unless they are going to fill your prices/SL/TP using their own funds. Which in some cases could see THEM go bankkrupt.

I had a friend who stupidly tried to trade NFP using pending BUYS and SELLS giving no thought or analysis to previous announcements and the potential range that could occur. He ended up losing his entire account ($24,000) and also got a phone call from his broker saying he owed them a further $9,000 because they had to cover his position. He then appealed and lost the court case adding a further $7,200 to his debt.

Scoobs.
  • #253
  • Jul 8, 2010 6:09pm Jul 8, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting scooby-doo
you could end up with serious problem come market open where the prices jump 200 pips or worse.
Hehe. Scoobs, you inhabit a different world to the rest of us.

Most of us here trade lot sizes that could survive a jump of 2000 pips (real pips that is, not those idiotic piplets so beloved of the 5 digit wally-plonker-dipstick-criminals) never mind 200.

I understand your sentiment, even so, and value like nothing else your sharing a bit of your world with the rest of us.

Guys, I agree with Scoobs that it is better for us retail drones not to hang on to positions over the we if we can possibly avoid it. If nothing else, The Gap can play havoc with us.

Hehe. "I agree with Scoobs" makes me sound like a 5 year old replicating one of his teachers. I can repeat the words, but the sense eludes me.

Cheers again Scoobs.

  • #254
  • Jul 8, 2010 6:15pm Jul 8, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
Hehe. Scoobs, you inhabit a different world to the rest of us.

Most of us here trade lot sizes that could survive a jump of 2000 pips (real pips that is, not those idiotic piplets so beloved of the 5 digit wally-plonker-dipstick-criminals) never mind 200.

I understand your sentiment, even so, and value like nothing else your sharing a bit of your world with the rest of us.

Guys, I agree with Scoobs that it is better for us retail drones not to hang on to positions over the we if we can possibly avoid it. If nothing else, The Gap...


On a serious note, I dont know too much about this bot/system but if it uses Fibs, Pivots or a combination of both then you should use WEEKLY as the levels dont change from Monday to Friday. A very BIG problem with using less than WEEKLY means you can issue trades buying below S1, S2 etc and suddenly find you are actually buying against resistence when the levels are re-calculated.

I am sure everyone has already thought of that so I will shut up and go back to trading my true 100K contract sizes with other peoples money.

  • #255
  • Jul 8, 2010 6:30pm Jul 8, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting scooby-doo
I am sure everyone has already thought of that so I will shut up and go back to trading my true 100K contract sizes with other peoples money.

Oh, for goodness sake get a grip Scoobs. Of course we have.

That is why we are all sat here stroking our white pussy-cats, glaring at our cowering minions and wondering which one to dump into the pool of piranha.

Look, we are only pretending to be incompetent nincompoops so that our true intentions of world financial domination are hidden from the rest of the world. Do give us some credit.

Um. Appear to have let something slip here.

How to make amends?

I know.

Sound incompetent.

Easy.

All you have to do to make money in Forex trading is go long when the 3 sma crosses the 2 sma in either direction. Stop loss is 2. Take profit is 350,000,000. Nice r:r ratio, see?

Lots of love

um

George

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • #256
  • Jul 8, 2010 6:37pm Jul 8, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
Oh, for goodness sake get a grip Scoobs. Of course we have.

That is why we are all sat here stroking our white pussy-cats, glaring at our cowering minions and wondering which one to dump into the pool of piranha.

Look, we are only pretending to be incompetent nincompoops so that our true intentions of world financial domination are hidden from the rest of the world. Do give us some credit.

Um. Appear to have let something slip here.

How to make amends?

I know.

Sound incompetent.

Easy.

All you have to do to make money in Forex trading...


I only mentioned it because some dimwit on FF sent me a PM saying that his M15 pivots kept changing which was screwing up his EA logic and trades.

I gave him the benefit of doubt and just wet myself without replying back to him.

Seriously, Daily pivots are fine as long as you wait until a new candle has formed before placing any trades and close them out (especially losing ones) before the candle ends.

Have fun people and go kill those brokers.

Remember.....Winner Winner Chicken Dinner.....I feel a new name for an EA coming over the horizon.

Scoobs.

PS. DONT trade when the price is between the R1 and S1 (Ranging Market), wait for it to break above or below.
  • #257
  • Jul 8, 2010 6:40pm Jul 8, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
Oh, for goodness sake get a grip Scoobs. Of course we have.

That is why we are all sat here stroking our white pussy-cats, glaring at our cowering minions and wondering which one to dump into the pool of piranha.

Look, we are only pretending to be incompetent nincompoops so that our true intentions of world financial domination are hidden from the rest of the world. Do give us some credit.

Um. Appear to have let something slip here.

How to make amends?

I know.

Sound incompetent.

Easy.

All you have to do to make money in Forex trading...
- made my evening Steve
  • #258
  • Jul 8, 2010 6:54pm Jul 8, 2010 6:54pm
Normally weekly R1 and S1 are respected Monday to Wednesday and usually breakout or trends exceed these areas on Thursday's or if there is very high impact news affecting a currency like interest rate changes etc.

Scoobs.
  • #259
  • Jul 8, 2010 6:58pm Jul 8, 2010 6:58pm
Quoting macman
- made my evening Steve
Here am I trying to serve up for free a deadly-accurate trading method and what do I get? Accolades for being the Court Jester.

Much more of this, and I shall refuse to release the Incredibly Accurate Manual Trading Method that has made my fortune.

Ok, ok. I know I shall get no peace until I do. My pm box will fill up with floods of requests. Just don't tell eveyone, ok?

Right, here goes. Now bear in mind folks that Ordinary Punters coming across my website pay $4,000 for the system that I am about to give you for free. So, read mark and inwardly digest what I am about to write. It will be removed in the morning.

Here is the system:

 

  1. go to a 1M chart.
  2. at the close of a candle:

    1. the closed candle was rising: go long
    2. the closed candle wasfalling: go short

  3. sl is the usual 2
  4. tp is the usual 350,000,000

The System is all about Money Management - this is something that The Ordinary Punter knows little about. The Equity Curve on my website shows how this can be achieved even by a trader with no previous experience.

Of course, whilst you plebs here are now fully appraised of the Magical Trading System, you still have one vital ingredient missing. You do not have The Fantastical Expert Advisor that trades all this for you.

For this, you have to: 1) Find the hidden website where it is available and 2) Pay the modest $4,000 that will Assure You of Wealth and Fortune in the Future.

Good luck in finding the website. This fabulous opportunity is not open for long, so waste not time.

  • #260
  • Jul 8, 2010 7:07pm Jul 8, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting scooby-doo


I only mentioned it because some dimwit on FF sent me a PM saying that his M15 pivots kept changing which was screwing up his EA logic and trades.
Tell him I have this magical system for keeping M15 pivots in place whatever the markets do, available for only......

I better stop now before I get barred from FF. Time for this sarkey so-and-so to go to bed.

Night all.

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