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Silent Service Method

  • #9,601
  • Jul 6, 2010 10:23pm Jul 6, 2010 10:23pm
I am currently watching the CAD with great interest. This shows why....
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  • #9,602
  • Jul 7, 2010 10:33am Jul 7, 2010 10:33am
I am changing my trading outlook from any attempt at trending for the moment, to range-bound, or "box trading." I will be looking for good box set ups, with an overall longer-term bias to the downside in "positive" markets or pairs.....
  • #9,603
  • Jul 7, 2010 10:45am Jul 7, 2010 10:45am
Take a look at these JPY charts I was looking at... Is there anything here? These are relatively short-term charts (20 days worth of 4hr data...)...but it looks like a pattern could be forming here.

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  • #9,604
  • Jul 7, 2010 10:46am Jul 7, 2010 10:46am
A look at GBP/CHF
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  • #9,605
  • Jul 7, 2010 10:47am Jul 7, 2010 10:47am
Quoting InfinitySL
Take a look at these JPY charts I was looking at... Is there anything here? These are relatively short-term charts (20 days worth of 4hr data...)...but it looks like a pattern could be forming here.

Attachment

While I would certainly see these as very bearish, at these levels I fear a BoJ intervention.
  • #9,606
  • Jul 7, 2010 10:48am Jul 7, 2010 10:48am
Quoting clockwork71
I am changing my trading outlook from any attempt at trending for the moment, to range-bound, or "box trading." I will be looking for good box set ups, with an overall longer-term bias to the downside in "positive" markets or pairs.....
Chris, I can definitely see box trading between now and at least September, if nothing else, due to the summer low liquidity.

Not to mention other market factors, such as so much uncertainity with all the bankruptcies/bailouts.

By "overall longer-term bias to the downside in 'positive' markets or pairs"...

Does this mean you are expecting pairs like the EURUSD an GPBUSD, who have recently been up, to eventually change direction and continue down with the longer term trend?
  • #9,607
  • Jul 7, 2010 12:30pm Jul 7, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Chris, I can definitely see box trading between now and at least September, if nothing else, due to the summer low liquidity.

Not to mention other market factors, such as so much uncertainity with all the bankruptcies/bailouts.

By "overall longer-term bias to the downside in 'positive' markets or pairs"...

Does this mean you are expecting pairs like the EURUSD an GPBUSD, who have recently been up, to eventually change direction and continue down with the longer term trend?
It appears that this summer will be a "normal" one with lower liquidity, which is different than the last few years. This slow aimless movement is actually the long-term norm. Problem is, most forex traders wash out relatively quick, so they don't see 3 summers!

Uncertainty is without a doubt a major issue as well. Nobody knows what the hell to do.

And yes, I expect certain pairs and markets to go down. S&P500, GBP/CHF, EUR/USD, etc......but only after this period of "nothing."
  • #9,608
  • Jul 7, 2010 3:00pm Jul 7, 2010 3:00pm
Spain 1
Germany 0

73 mins.....

Is it my imagination, or is Germany playing like they don't want to be there?
  • #9,609
  • Jul 7, 2010 3:08pm Jul 7, 2010 3:08pm
i think it is because they are playing Barcelona.................not Spain....

Quoting clockwork71
Spain 1
Germany 0

73 mins.....

Is it my imagination, or is Germany playing like they don't want to be there?
  • #9,610
  • Jul 7, 2010 3:21pm Jul 7, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting clockwork71
Spain 1
Germany 0

73 mins.....

Is it my imagination, or is Germany playing like they don't want to be there?
Not your imagination! Compared with their last two games they looked like a completely different team tonight! Slow and lethargic... a bit like England lol!

Regards,

Dan
  • #9,611
  • Jul 7, 2010 6:05pm Jul 7, 2010 6:05pm
Been hearing that the market volume was light again today. If that is the case, then I certainly wouldn't be buying into this rally in the stock markets today....
  • #9,612
  • Jul 7, 2010 6:10pm Jul 7, 2010 6:10pm
It hasn't filled yet. But I am looking for 114.

Did anyone else trade this weekly PIN?
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  • #9,613
  • Jul 7, 2010 6:14pm Jul 7, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting clockwork71
Been hearing that the market volume was light again today. If that is the case, then I certainly wouldn't be buying into this rally in the stock markets today....
Volume is always light during the 4th of July week... Summer vacation man!
  • #9,614
  • Jul 7, 2010 6:45pm Jul 7, 2010 6:45pm
Quoting jharvey407
It hasn't filled yet. But I am looking for 114.

Did anyone else trade this weekly PIN?

No, but it's a great looking counter-trend set up.
  • #9,615
  • Jul 7, 2010 8:39pm Jul 7, 2010 8:39pm
Are you guys still in the EUR/GBP? If so, did this weekly pinbar get you out?

Cheers,
ISL

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  • #9,616
  • Jul 7, 2010 9:52pm Jul 7, 2010 9:52pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Are you guys still in the EUR/GBP? If so, did this weekly pinbar get you out?

Cheers,
ISL

Attachment
Yes, out now. Did not buy it....thought about it, but didn't. :-)
  • #9,617
  • Jul 8, 2010 7:41am Jul 8, 2010 7:41am
Check out attached chart....
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  • #9,618
  • Jul 8, 2010 8:16am Jul 8, 2010 8:16am
good initial claims data just out, wouldnt be suprised to see a new leg up now, with rumours going around about Trichet and EU rate rise etc...

that long on Euro at major weekly support is holding up well from 1.20-1.19.

Interesting to note no major stops have been really going off on S&P when breaking highs, even when breaking highs theirs an initial squeeze back into range (im talking seconds to minutes TF)
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #9,619
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:14pm Jul 8, 2010 12:14pm
You'll probably care more about Chris' thoughts, but here are mine:

I know you said 1H TF, but I'll zoom out to the 4H and give you a quick/dirty. I think it's a good trade (actually entered a similar trade yesterday based on similar pattern). Attached are my thoughts...

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  • #9,620
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:44pm Jul 8, 2010 12:44pm
I'm not sure how much play this first story is getting, but it's certainly one to keep an eye on for those interested in the Euro...
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...onetary-union/

Also here's another interesting one about how hedge funds right now are "Frozen in Headlights" given the current price action (this would support the range-bound thesis that Chris has put forward)...
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...k-trading.html

Anyway, i thought they were interesting reads, so I thought I'd pass them along...
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