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vsa with Malcolm

  • #1,021
  • Jul 6, 2010 3:40pm Jul 6, 2010 3:40pm
Quoting Intel
For those who like patterns, isn't this a head and shoulders? There's a formula for working out the expected down move from a H&S....b*ggered if I know it tho
measure base of the shoulders (neck) to the top of the head - that's how far it is expected to rise or fall after price breaks the neckline
  • #1,022
  • Jul 6, 2010 3:54pm Jul 6, 2010 3:54pm
sorry those are candles with the close equal to open, just something odd about my bar color setup i've been lazy on fixing.


Quoting Intel
Why do you have candles missing from your charts?
  • #1,023
  • Jul 6, 2010 4:00pm Jul 6, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
sorry those are candles with the close equal to open, just something odd about my bar color setup i've been lazy on fixing.
Oh Ok Thanks. Maybe you should fix this, it can be important to know the high low.

Thanks f451
  • #1,024
  • Jul 6, 2010 4:04pm Jul 6, 2010 4:04pm
yeah, i'm just lazy lol. and these are just my charts at my work.
updates for you.
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  • #1,025
  • Jul 6, 2010 4:12pm Jul 6, 2010 4:12pm
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
yeah, i'm just lazy lol. and these are just my charts at my work.
updates for you.

Good man thanks for that
  • #1,026
  • Jul 6, 2010 4:13pm Jul 6, 2010 4:13pm
Just sharing some thoughts here:

I have cut my shorts on AUDJPY following the huge retrace to 74.70 levels. The price action is just not settling well with me given the other two compounding facts:

1. I am still new at VSA so I err on the side of caution as this price action is not smelling bearish enough.

2. The volumes in better part of the last 24 hours have been thin from what my 71 year old eyes can see. Getting a new prescription next month so maybe that'll help.

Figure I will sit this one out. Lost opportunity is better than lost dollars I suppose.

And yes, I want a boat too!

Regards,

Mo.
  • #1,027
  • Jul 6, 2010 4:21pm Jul 6, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
yeah, i'm just lazy lol. and these are just my charts at my work.
updates for you.
I see EU has found some volume and our UT did materialise. If price breaaks that SO, it may drift down through Asia.

Still unsure about AJ. The next 2 bars will tell us I think, either a ND or a test.

AJ is perplexing me at the mo........Mal what do you think?
  • #1,028
  • Jul 6, 2010 4:25pm Jul 6, 2010 4:25pm
Quoting Momomoney
Just sharing some thoughts here:

I have cut my shorts on AUDJPY following the huge retrace to 74.70 levels. The price action is just not settling well with me given the other two compounding facts:

1. I am still new at VSA so I err on the side of caution as this price action is not smelling bearish enough.

2. The volumes in better part of the last 24 hours have been thin from what my 71 year old eyes can see. Getting a new prescription next month so maybe that'll help.

Figure I will sit this one out. Lost opportunity is better than lost...
71 wow

Did you know Wyckoff?
  • #1,029
  • Jul 6, 2010 5:22pm Jul 6, 2010 5:22pm
Malcolm, Intel, HG, or anyone else who might know...

How do you distinguish between a retrace against a trend and a trend reversal?

Once again this is primarily a question around profit targets.
Monday I took a GU short for around 20 pips - the trade was against the larger GU uptrend of the last few weeks, but there was clear weakness and confirmation. I half expected this to be a larger down move, partly because I've been noting all the discussion on this thread around GU and EU topping, but when I saw it start to move against me I got out as it was counter-trend.

Over the last few days both GU and EU have moved up, showing any shorts to be retraces against the larger uptrends.

I would have been better off focusing solely on buying dips to trade in alignment the broader trend - larger gains to be made (such as Intels excellent GU long).

Except at some point we are probably going to get a trend reversal. In which case the short will be a big move, and I'd like to take full advantage of it then.

So how do we tell when a true trend reversal is about to happen?

(Note I'm not really talking about if the pair is ranging between a floor and a ceiling here - that's usually easier to see - but if it's actually been trending up or down).

f451
  • #1,030
  • Edited 6:58pm Jul 6, 2010 6:53pm | Edited 6:58pm
Here's the 15 min gu from MBT (demo)--sorry didn't realize so much time had passed since you requested it... long day...
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  • #1,031
  • Jul 6, 2010 7:07pm Jul 6, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting f451

I would have been better off focusing solely on buying dips to trade in alignment the broader trend - larger gains to be made (such as Intels excellent GU long).

f451
I couldn't agree more... I missed a good portion of the upside movement last week because for some unknown reason I was trying to pick a top... Hopefully I've learned a cheap lesson (demo trading)... I’m eagerly awaiting the guru’s feedback on how they will know we’ve got a significant reversal…
  • #1,032
  • Jul 6, 2010 7:25pm Jul 6, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting Intel
Vancouver........sunshine........boats..........I don't know how you cope with all the pressure

that is not the issue .... all that easy to handle .It is the ratio of women to men i cannot handle ... reported to be 7 women to 1 man and downtown today ( was drinking a couple of beers on a patio) i could have sworn the ratio was even higher ..lol

Hope the trading day went well for everyone.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,033
  • Jul 6, 2010 7:32pm Jul 6, 2010 7:32pm
really odd pa in aj , as you said just will not let go of 75 area and yes the volume on this 2nd top has been thin last 24 hours.

Quoting Momomoney
Just sharing some thoughts here:

I have cut my shorts on AUDJPY following the huge retrace to 74.70 levels....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,034
  • Jul 6, 2010 7:59pm Jul 6, 2010 7:59pm
awesome question and one that is not easy to respond to

I guess trends are all based on the time frame you trade... there have been great longs and sell in gu in recent days , today on a 30 min we had a lovely buying climax just above prior resistance that gave a 100 pip trade

the fact that todays upper value area is todays lower value are could mean trend starting to change on daily chart.

also the fact that today got sold into on gu is some what of a confirmation of that . ..

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..



Quoting f451
Malcolm, Intel, HG, or anyone else who might know...

How do you distinguish between a retrace against a trend and a trend reversal?

Once again this is primarily a question around profit targets.
Monday I took a GU short for around 20 pips - the trade was against the larger GU uptrend of the last few weeks, but there was clear weakness and confirmation. I half expected this to be a larger down move, partly because I've been noting all the discussion on this thread around GU and EU topping, but when I saw it start to move against me I got out as...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,035
  • Jul 6, 2010 8:14pm Jul 6, 2010 8:14pm
Quoting f451
Malcolm, Intel, HG, or anyone else who might know...

How do you distinguish between a retrace against a trend and a trend reversal?

Once again this is primarily a question around profit targets.
Monday I took a GU short for around 20 pips - the trade was against the larger GU uptrend of the last few weeks, but there was clear weakness and confirmation. I half expected this to be a larger down move, partly because I've been noting all the discussion on this thread around GU and EU topping, but when I saw it start to move against me I got out...
I have found this reversal or retrace thing very difficult myself. I dont think I have cracked it now and there's a good reason for this.

I have had trouble and lost money because I thought it was a reversal but it turned out to be a retrace. However, It's only now that I realise that I was losing trades not because I had 'picked' the wrong 'R' but because I so desperately WANTED to be right.

I was finding that the 'kick' I got from the one trade which I predicted correctly made me forget about the 5 which I got wrong.

It was only when I accepted this to be true that I could change the way I trade. My trading has changed now in that, I don't really care if it's a retrace or reversal.

I just trade what I see infront of me.

If I see a turning point, I enter when the setup shows itself. When I see signs that the move may no longer be profitable, I exit. Whether it's for 10 pips or 1000 pips.

I have said many times that I am hopeless at predicting targets for moves. So I no longer try to.

For me, trying to predict what will come has been a real killer. I am happy with the way I trade right now, I just want to get better at it.

If you are getting caught up looking for reversals try this (demo obviously!) -

Next time you trade, look at the chart of your choice. If you see positive signs of a turning point (retrace or reversal), wait for the entry setup.

If you dont see any signs of a turning point, jump straight in right there and then in the direction of the prevailing trend. Once your in, dont exit until you see a turning point setup (not just the signs of one).

You'll find 2 things happen -

1. You'll get better at identifying true setups.

2. Having entered with the trend, you won't be in such a rush to find a turning point!!
  • #1,036
  • Jul 6, 2010 8:25pm Jul 6, 2010 8:25pm
Quoting malcolmb14
awesome question and one that is not easy to respond to

I guess trends are all based on the time frame you trade...

Attachment ..
Great chart and explanation. You make it look so easy...
  • #1,037
  • Jul 6, 2010 8:30pm Jul 6, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting DavidFX
Great chart and explanation. You make it look so easy...
easy if I took the damn trade ...lol

I did take this one , the set up in side ways movement was indicative that the breakout was coming and eu has three up days , so better to try longs than sells

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,038
  • Jul 6, 2010 8:39pm Jul 6, 2010 8:39pm
Quoting Intel
I have found this reversal or retrace thing very difficult myself. I dont think I have cracked it now and there's a good reason for this.

I have had trouble and lost money because I thought it was a reversal but it turned out to be a retrace. However, It's only now that I realise that I was losing trades not because I had 'picked' the wrong 'R' but because I so desperately WANTED to be right.

I was finding that the 'kick' I got from the one trade which I predicted correctly made me forget about the 5 which I got wrong.

It was only when I accepted...
Sage advice, I shall give it a try!
  • #1,039
  • Jul 6, 2010 8:39pm Jul 6, 2010 8:39pm
Greetings, fellow traders, below are my analysis and graphs, thank you so much for your time. Hope to learn from you all.

Yours sincerely,
Bethel
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  • #1,040
  • Jul 6, 2010 8:44pm Jul 6, 2010 8:44pm
I have entered as i see that PA is below MML and i have entered my stop loss, my TP is the next MML S/R but if 21-HMA turns green, i will exit accordingly, even with a loss.

Sorry malcolmb, u mentioned HMA turning red/green, not sure if you've seen my question, so the HMA u mentioned changing color b4 u short/long is the 21-hma right? sorry that i asked again. THank you
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