GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

thanks mate....have a good evening.

Stocky

Thanks trade price.

Yes, I try to take heed of fundamentals – whilst having a laugh at the same time – and consider them directors of market, within technical details upon a chart. My problem is, there is so much fundamental guff to sift through, that sometimes I just (and excuse me Ladies) say “ah, bollocks to this, I’m off to the garden with a glass of Rose and a book.” Once there, and if sunny, I normally fall asleep and catch flies with mouth ajar. Of course, it is at this stage that my stops are usually hit… bastards.

Okay, a quick one.

NFP. I won’t bore the readers’ eyes with statistics and references, but where one takes one’s references, can determine one’s opinion. I have become jaded by countless graphs and comment surround each NFP, and so tend to follow the cat outdoors for a breath of fresh air. (Some readers may wish to do that right now ) But to cut to it, more people are unemployed from fulltime contracted work now, then back then, then being, well, take your pick anytime back for the last few years. As has been commented upon elsewhere, the increase in employment this year has been on the back of temporary employment fuelled by fiscal injection from the government. We saw last week that this money is running out, and, of course, other temporary jobs based on seasonality have come to contractual closes. Of course, we now have Obama the Obysmal about to hit the presses again, but what will the world really make of a second attempt to stimulate an economy where nobody is spending, and nobody can get credit? More QE leads to inflation – which further compounds extant problems.

It really grates when analysts mull over how the jobless rate fell less than previously, and so must be a good sign. Uh, what… so, not as many people lost their jobs last month, but the overall jobless rate remains stubbornly high… meaning more repossessions, misery of poverty, lack of self-esteem and so on, but it’s a good sign. Oh, okay, yes, of course, I’m just Joe-Stupid-Public that understands ‘nowt’. Sorry Sir, shine your shoes governor? Hmm, actually, F*** off! … sir (intentional lower case s). The jobless rate may fluctuate to show not as many are claiming to be unemployed, but your assertion is a false positive as the negative base steadily increases.

A quick glance of the two charts below show an interesting relationship. The unemployment rate in chart 1 has been sitting between 9 and 10 percent since around March 09… pretty much the peak of job losses for the last year. If I look at the NFP chart, I see a contraction in job losses, but of course, no significantly concomitant decrease in unemployment rate – this is the part that a lot of sloppy journalists fail to comment upon. For reasons cited earlier, a slow down in job loss is not a positive sign when contrasted with unemployment rate; it merely indicates that the rate of expansion of the unemployed has abated somewhat. Of course, a job cannot be found for each school leaver, foreign worker etcetera, and so the jobless rate will always lag somewhat – probably always increase if statistical calculation based on technical expansion proficiency is any lead. However, like much of Europe, no real amount of new jobs are being created, so even if the NFP figures were positive for the rest of the year, I doubt very much if the unemployment rate would drop significantly – unless of course NFP was returning 500k numbers each month. The FF NFP graph on maximum is also interesting to interpret. Interpret being the operative word, as I, too – although trying to interpret as objectionable as possible - may be guilty of some sub-conscience bias in my presentations.

Finally, we are now at the stage – if looking at the last bar on the NFP graph - of having an expansion in the amount of employment being lost, and if past performance IS an indication of future performance, the unemployment rate is looking like it may need a larger Y axis.

Morning All,

GU, EU and EJ got bought through Asia.

GU has bounced of the 38.2 fib from thursdays rally. We are approaching 5204/30 resistance zone. Im waiting for us to break this zone before entering as I was unable to enter during Asia.

EU found support at 2482 and was bought during Asia. Currently we are test 2606 area...A break through there gives way to 2672/80 next 4hr resistance. Last Hourly has formed doji at 2600 on fairly high volume so will be intresting to see if we can continue this rally wothout a retrace of some sort.

EJ retraced on that weekly Pin to 109.15 previous swing 4hrly high as per yesterdays analysis. The strong upmove last night has EJ now testing 110.84 area. A break above this then has the secondary channel resistance line (just above R3) and then 113.15 as a target. If 110.84 holds we may retrace to 110.30 support zone befre having another attempt.

Stocky

Morning all,
The overall direction for the G/U is up on a daily, I expect 1.55/1.56 zone to be reached within the next several days. For a time being a retracement to 1.5000 is possible as that would accomplish an ABC correction, if so it is a great buy or add to the long position at 1.5000 level.

I read that Jean-Claude Trichet is meeting with executives from Europe's top banks today. In order to discuss the up-coming stress tests.

Hmm, forewarned is forearmed - thanks Trichet the timid.

What an absolute farce. It's almost like big money big government insider dealing.

I'm expecting covering to happen up until July 23rd, and then it's tin hat time as the sparks fly.

Let's see how this runs...

Good day to you,

I am expecting GU to move a bit lower from this level. Short term.

Either to test one of the following -

Monday low @ 1.5087
Last weeks open @ 1.5057
50% level of last month as well as the 50% level of last week - both @ 1.5048

Once breaking back through the high of last month @ 1.5126

Just my opinion

Regards

Good day to you,

Nice set of sells closing now. Did not post when I took these.GU reached 1st target.( did not take the trade). I am leaving the office now. Good trading all.

Regards

Nice EJ trades Tau

Stocky

Hi all,

I posted an update of my charts here

Good day to you,

Turned around here - attempting short term longs on these for a few...

SR clusters. EJ to hopefully break back above the monday low @ 109.68 and Dragon above yesterdays low @ 131.83. Will move SL in asap.

Will see how it goes...

Regards

Good day to you, Sir

- I am learning to get " more naked"...

I do use a stoploss - but I choose a level / point mentally. I battle still to find exact entries - I am normally "early" and sometimes have to endure a bit of drawdown.

I am working on that side of my personality.

I know, I know.... When I am wrong, I tend to give back a bit more, due to me not placing a fixed SL. But I have a mental block here -

Wish you all success!

Regards

Good day to you,

Appreciated.

Thank you

Good day,

Closed EJ for +32 and Dragon for +19

Done for the day. See you later.

Warm regards

Good day to you,

Thank you for taking the time. Appreciate your kind words and pointers. All true - you are very right. Seems you have been around the block a couple of times....

Trading the plan - that is the key.

All the best to you

Regards

Good day to you,

I know...

Just could not leave these... Entering short on EU and GU. Rejection of today's opening for GU @ 1.5148 and 1.2600 round number for EU. Short term scalp for a possible couple.

Then REALLY done.

Regards

An update on my 4 hr chart that I posted last week.....the .786 retrace / upper APF line held - OK, a little under at 5226 before a pull back into yesterdays low at 5081, also todays S1, retested this morning in a Big Ben fake-out.

Now a Higher Low on my 15 min chart in a doji above the 5100 level around the New York open gave me a nice buy which has so far tested todays pivot at 5152 - aslo the 50% retrace of the pull back and the over-night high....

I was just looking at my daily chart and found that I'd already got some time lines showing up next Monday and Tuesday.

Working on my 4 hour chart I found some more, so IF the current highs get broken, IMO we could see the 5375 area early next week......pity I'm away travelling and having a break from 'puters......TWT

Good day to you,

I had an EJ trade triggered - did not think it will happen today. Added 2 more trades. So, last 2 days entered into 13 trades. 13 winners. + 354 pips total.

I am grateful.

Why am I posting these? Just to show that I am not only posting winners. Maybe this is coming out wrong... what I am trying to say, is that I will not/can not always post every entry I take. This is for the sake of transparency...

Anyway... looking through the different timeframes, my take on GU as follows:

The Daily chart shows we are in a cycle up / long. No surprise there. I do however believe a retrace will have to happen some time soon. Not the light retracements we have seen over the past 2 weeks, but one of a bit more substance. Briefly looking at the weekly, the longs may continue for quite some time to come - but I think we need the retrace first. The 4hr is showing signs of interim "weakness" - which may be the start of the retrace wanted on the Daily.

This is how I see it... only opinion. I am however gonna place a small short on GU at this level. 1.5200. Mental SL @ 1.5260 ( 13 pips above the upper level of the daily channel, by highs) - just to test my theory.

Will see how we go...

Thank you for a very informative thread. Thank you for your contributions - I am learning a lot.

Regards

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