USDCAD trend reversal?

I have a question for anyone who has traded this pair heaps during hurricane season....does it cause the CAD to weaken during storms because of oil prices going up? Or have you never seen any reaction?

I still see parity happening even if for just a few moments for us to all hit that target. But that is just my opinion.

Scarecru, you might get hold of Prechters work " Conquer the Crash" does a great job with his Elliot wave and makes a formidible argument for why debt deflation is inevitable.

Also take a read on the Demographic analysis of Harry Dent another firm equities Bear.

Both authors use cyclic analysis as core principles. Prechter (as you most likely are aware of) is highly technical and market based, while Dent works with population growth patterns effect upon the economic business cycle.

Although by nature not much of a technician, do hold respect for Elliot wave. Had gone to an Elliot wave analysis of the Yen back when it was trading in the 145.00 range USD/YEN and there was a fellow claiming his analysis indicted that the Yen would trade down into the low 80's or below to even possibly the 50's
Blasphemy at the time. So draw your own conclusions.

In summary, two differing data input sources drawing similar conclusions. Frankly, God help us all if it really plays out as is portrayed.

On another matter, about playing field position as per prior post, got a good nights sleep and woke to some nice overnite gains based upon events in Europe. Most hunting animals do not chase prey, they conserve energy and wait in ambush. Been going on since the dawn of time, long enough to use as a proven trading strategy.

As one gets older a good nights sleep is a pleasure that becomes a vice.

forexstrah, sorry cannot help you, markets are fickle enough for me without factoring local weather conditions into global markets. A really major natural event does get heeded ie: erruptions, earthquakes, hurricanes, infectious disease outbreak. But it can be a difficult thing to trade weather markets such as commodities from the short term. You might be better off trading oil directly rather then the Cad as a surrogate.

Maybe some other forum poster who scalped or day trades would be more helpful.

EURO/AUD is currently trading at the same level it broke out from just before the last recent debt crisis mode catipulted this pair into orbit.
The Europeans announced the bailout package and the pair retreated from the highs.
Gotta love this business. Madmen, fools and some nice people all in a row.

FOTO: thanks for the Prechteur title ( I shall get it tomorrow) - with your recommendations to enhance my learning; I believe that I must now employ laxatives in order to get increased reading time.

Made some pips re: your G/Cad suggestions ( thanks). Previewed E/AUD tonight & unable to dispute your analysis.

My LOONIETEK suggests that since the D down TL was broken - I shall be long with a TPP 1.0850.

As NFP is due Friday & there is apparent risk aversion, I shall sell the Beaver (C/Y).

Sorry that I am unable to assist re: hurricane/oil/comm $ request. Never thought about it in this manner.
I await E/U to go < 1.2140 for drop to parity.

Wonderful analogy- don't chase $; let $ come to you!

Morning,
I have been staying with the weaker commodity theme. Still holding open longs in GBP/CAD and will go for the long term move that scenario projects into the future. This trade has potential for a real nice win.

Also long EURO/AUD, USD/CAD and short AUD/USD (ASIA overhyped/overbought)

Since am looking for significant move to occur over the next few months, am willing to wait. Nothing of meaningful occurence suggests a change to forecast.
Fridays NFP will control markets projections of economic strength/weakness going forward. For all the talk of a sustained recovery without real jobs it remains talk. If there is suprise to the upside will reevaluate scenario.

ps. Scarecru do not let the Authors do a number on your mind. These are analysts and just as subject to the same human frailties as anyone else. I did find the work fascinating and pioneering. To maintain prespective in markets, looking under the rocks for vermen is perfectly acceptable. Sort of like becoming an ugly bug collector when it comes to ideas. If they are proved correct in the longer term then there is ample time to protect from real financial calamity, as forwarned is forearmed.

The real insanity is what is passed off as thoughtful concepts by people like Bernanke and Obama. These are the Opiate people who believe that individuals should be dependent upon the state rather then live as free people, employing the minds they were born with.
In the end we really do have the power of choice over our own lives.

FOTO: as always; thanks for the lucrative info that you impart.

Hope this may be of benefit to yourself & others.

Your recent posts re: commodities & comm $ caused me to review my trading parameters.

Noted that on W charts ( late Sept-Dec 08) E/Aud E/Cad went up while oil C/Y A/Y went down. Recent losses in commodities as you have pointed out in several posts may suggest a repeat.

The Beaver (c/y) is approaching the W up TL ( 5July/09 -2May/10).
A/CHF W: $ < 50 ema & @ Dec low.
Ditto: Cad/CHF W: Feb low.
Dislike trading swissy due to SNB protecting their $. However, shall snipe these pairs (profit is profit).

Your mention of EW, is anathema to me. In the past, I read all sorts of literature about it. I could never grasp one concept of it! I am NOT saying that EW is wrong. I am stating that I am unable to grasp its fundamental concepts!

HAPPY CANADA DAY!!!

(enjoy the HST cuz life will be sooooooo much better in Ontario).
Thanks Dalton ( I will NOT RAISE TAXES).

Im short just for the retrace I count 5 waves up does anybody see that too? i cant get my computer to post my chart.

Morning,

Hope you make some more posts about EW Buitragojl. Interesting concept do not understand the operations myself. Is it similar to the fibonacci concept that growth occurs in natural patterns?

Bought another leg of GBP/CAD on the break of the 1.6000 level that just occured. Do like the price action so far. Housing remains nowhere, so the debt deflation underway will continue.

If confidence that events are outrunning all the stimulus occurs, then there will be market blood spilled.

addendum: Scarecru, my long term charts show very legitiment target for AUD/USD of .6500 level Some soverign appears obsessed with the Aud at these levels so that would appear for a contrarian, a strong sell. Just do not know what the trigger will be.

Hey FOTO: Canada Day; NFP day; Independence Day mayhaps lots of fireworks this next few days!

Re: ozzie; did a quick W chart analysis & up TL ( 12 Jul '09 - 23 May '10)
indicates if $ breaks this up TL, gives a TPP 6796. Fits in with your post.

Of course, commodities would have to go down.

The comm$/Y & comm$/chf shorts were pleasant to view.
Still long E/comm$ & G/comm$ (require those pips to afford this $%^#$@! HST- thanks Dalton!)

FOTO: one of the bank sheets that I checked tonight displayed the S&P 500 quarterly chart.
Their comment was: " massive bearish engulfing candle".

You probably knew this; but it further validated my trades wrt comm$.

heh Scarecru , Happy Freedom Day to you as well.

Thanks for the tip about Bk. sheet. I do read a bunch but it is impossible to follow it all and then make sense of it. Still make an attempt to read between the lines.

Obamas push for ammnesty legislation the day before NFP would (being a political cynic) be the old Chicago razzle dazzle. If you can't dazzle them with intellect, baffle them with bullshit. Since no sane person listens to the talking head any longer my take is that NFP is a bust.

Also Fed has been backpedaling their claim to omnipotence so that has implications reality is intruding through the Maya (living in illusion/delusion)

NFP has happened, nothing to change the forecast. Next stop is the equities market. People who know how money is made will have a short fuse to another proclamation from the W.H.

Market confidence is shaky at best, this should undermine confidence in current policy further. Equities downside more likely as far as this persons opinion.

For all the bluster where is the debt assumption to come from to fullfill the policy requirements of the Keynesians?

addendum: Europe is rallying so the believers in credit growth from ongoing low rates have the upper hand curently. The US market is not Europe so we will know by end of today.

Have a nice weekend everyone

On Euro Dtf: with a little imagination- possible inverted H&S
( May26 LS/June 7 H/June 29 RS) Target 1.3ish

OR: May 21to June 21 down TL broken upwards on July 1 yields Target 1.3040.

E/CAD: Dtf down TL ( May 21 to June 24) yields target 1.3860
I shall await 1.3473 break to upside.

Shall be interesting to see if these targets are reached

Here is my chart of usdcad

Great chart Makfx:

On my D chart- STO is o/b ( I expect a retrace) & it appears to be an ascending triangle in an uotrend.
My 4h has 0525 as prev support & 0500 is the 50 ema ( going up).

I think that this ties in with your green arrows. Retrace then resumption of US/Cad strength. I'm long to 0700 Resistance.

FOTO: re: the S&P earlier post-

This weekend glanced @ DJIA Wly chart.
Looked like a H&S with the last candle breaking the neckline.

Appreciate your take on this wrt comm$.

Good morning Scarecru,

About your question pertaining to technical analysis. I do think the markets are at juncture. Which is what the charts are saying. Where the technical analysis has left me in the cold in the past is that they really provide no indication about what the market will do in the future nor what is driving the market.
Has market psychology changed to the point that substantive growth will be required as confirmation that something real is actually occuring to justify the equities rally? People who employ brain cells should be asking that question. But we are in the financial markets and not the real economy. That is what we have to trade.

Personaly I remain bearish on the economy since the baby boomers are retrenching and the younger people have been priced out of ever owning anything by a Federal Reserve that has weakened purchasing power to the point that people are just debt slaves to the banking system.

But if you are of the Keynesian mindset you would think it a wonderful thing and be a firebreathing Bull.

I have had my commodity shorts in place right on through Fridays NFP and the holiday weekend. Will probably take a beating today with the equity rallies across the world. But such is trading.

FOTO: thanks again for your insight. It reaffirms my take on my D charts re: comm$- they look to be heading south! Temporary reduction in P/L; however, "temporary" is operative word.

Do not know much about Keynesian policy (actually, very little). The bits that I have managed to read & form an impression- lead me to believe that his theories were an economic venue of P.T. Barnum's " There's a....
.....born every minute!" Of course,the political powers are aware of this & exploit it at election time.
WRT tax freedom day; if you live N of the 49th parallel,you have a few weeks to go... Vote liberal. The new tax form will read: Line 1: how much did you earn?
Line 2: Send it all in.

The current Trade, which is shorting commodity currencies, is as much about a change in market pyschology as it is about real economic decline.

To date the commodity currencies have been bulled primarily by the preception that governments are capable of inflating away debt sins of the past, and this is just another cyclical recovery that was inevitable.

What is actually transpiring is that economic growth is being hindered and actualy repressed by the enormous debt accumulation of the past. If one believes the economic data then the debt loads across the globe has reached the tipping point. As more fund managers and global investors get on board this line of reasoning then portfolio adjustments become the prime mover of markets.

Debt deleveraging will reduce global GDP and will impact markets for years to come. This is why governments are in panic mode, tax revenues continue to fall and the political establishement cannot make good on promises to constituents.

In the US the rise of the Tea party is a real event. The press gives it short shift but the grassroots movement is solid. This is an example of the restructuring of life styles that will lead economies into the future.

This is the scenario that projects for further declines in commodities as consumerism gets laid to rest. It will also continue to affect Asia as the rest of the world will no longer finance consumption via debt.

As to Keynesian theory, at one time stimulating by abandoning the Gold standard (Roosevelt administration) may have had some validity. It still is debatable that weakening the thrifty (savers) and transfering spending power to consumption produced desirable results. Government sponsered theft of savings under other situations would be called piracy. But since it is government it is legal.

But any policy singlemindedly pursued to extreme for decades on end can only result in huge economic imbalance. Obsessions do not produce balance, but imbalance. So we have this mountain of world debt that is breaking down across the board. It is not going to go easily into that night.