Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

We will probably visit 129.50 area today unless Non farm surprises.

We're on the same page Raza. Everyone predict new kaboom and we rally yesterday. Could be transfer of European banks' assets? Could be Chinese? Make no mistake, the US will not shed too mahy tears over a weaker Dollar right now and with Gold getting sold heavily yesterday too, makes me think coordinated intervention. No one would have said yesterday was ahaping up to be risk-on, but that's exactly how it turned out.

Just for the craic, here's a chart of EU Weekly. Looks pretty obvious to me. Maybe not today, maybe not this month, but soon enough. If Euro continues to gain, then we'll rally hard everywhere else too.

here bud... good luck with no stopping until 136.xx ,,but we gonna have to stop at 135.00/40 for an X direction,,even if we have to go up to 139/148 ,then we will anyway make n turn to 133.00 atleast after we hit 135.00,,so either way the R/R is very good for a sell at 135.00/40,stop and reverse above 136 for 139----> 148

If we break 133.86 ...61.8% of whole move down from 135xx - 131xx..

Then first stop is 134.84.. Then 135.45 and finally 136.44.. By Friday...IMO

Guess 131.26 needs to HOLD...

I dont know why ...It seems Bullish to ME...

UKtrader we both could be very Wrong...

132.10 should hold for more up move soon. Which will be dig buy that area.

I agree that 136.xx is the top of the Daily Ichi cloud, but you may wish to look at it again. PA was in the cloud on 6/28 & 6/29. The Tenkan had a bearish cross below the Kijun, and the Chicou Span is in a bearish cross. All this is happening below a Bear Cloud. IMHO we may go up to 136, but if we close bearish today, that will be the play.

So if NFP goes down and the Unemployment rate goes down I guess that means more and more people are giving up on finding work.

Looks like this is getting a little bit of a rally going, the army of the damned's ranks will be swelling and that must be just what the business plan was calling for as heavy buying seems to be going on.

I think there won't be any conclusive direction yet.. perhaps consolidation between 131.5 - 134. Just my 2 cents..

the day seem to end in between of Asia and Europe range between 134.00/28 & low 132.55 ... nothing clear ~~
else do any one expect explode to happen?

naked chart at the beginning of month -

so far we have 132.10 as support; if broken, we go down to test 130.03 area (and i explained that this may extend down to 127.95).

on the upside, there is 134.38 as resistance. since price is above monthly close, i assume bias is slightly bullish atm and i expect a test of this resistance. it may go as high as 135.59.

Stopped out on the B/E with the spike but jumped back in short with the release and stop at 134.18. Looking for a sell off today around noonish. Plenty made this week and can afford a loss here but I think we will get a drop.

and this is daily chart.

134.92 and 131.77 are this week's limits. if 134.92 is broken, then 135.59 is next (not much of a trend there, isn't it); if 131.77 is broken, 130.03 is next. this one looks better...

low volatility until tuesday. enjoy the weekend!

Spot on & great call, as well as the play by plays.

I'm expecting a <130.5 test; we might be good for another 100 pips down today, as FTSE has ended down, and S&P looks like it's heading down, probably in an attempt to avoid bad weekend news, from the US moreso than anywhere else. If the S&P low of 1011 is breached, a sub-1000 dip is possible, opening almost a surefire hole in the floor to 950 next week.

Meant to post Ashraf's views earlier; this is from yesterday:

2010.07.01 10:55: THE UNUSUAL SIMULTANEOUS selloff in the US dollar and stocks seems to be in function of tumbling US bond yields as US data continues to disappoint throughout the day. The broad weakness in manufacturing ISM (including the 20-point tumble in the prices paid index to Nov lows), the unexpected 13K rise in jobless claims to 472K, the 30% plunge in May pending home sales, cannot be positive for yields. All these figures are helping to drive 10-yr yields to fresh 3-month lows below 2.90%. The ongoing tumble in yields is unlikely to spare the greenback in the event of a negative surprise in US jobs figures. EURUSD capped at 1.2480, USDJPY eyes 86.80 target, followed by 86.20 in event of Friday NFP selloff.

Comments
House Democrats ‘Deem’ Faux $1.1 Trillion Budget ‘as Passed’
by Connie Hair
07/02/2010

Last night, as part of a procedural vote on the emergency war supplemental bill, House Democrats attached a document that “deemed as passed” a non-existent $1.12 trillion budget. The execution of the “deeming” document allows Democrats to start spending money for Fiscal Year 2011 without the pesky constraints of a budget.

The procedural vote passed 215-210 with no Republicans voting in favor and 38 Democrats crossing the aisle to vote against deeming the faux budget resolution passed.

Never before -- since the creation of the Congressional budget process -- has the House failed to pass a budget, failed to propose a budget then deemed the non-existent budget as passed as a means to avoid a direct, recorded vote on a budget, but still allow Congress to spend taxpayer money.

House Budget Committee Ranking Member Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) warned this was the green light for Democrats to continue their out-of-control spending virtually unchecked.

“Facing a record deficit and a tidal wave of debt, House Democrats decided it was politically inconvenient to put forward a budget and account for their fiscal recklessness. With no priorities and no restraints, the spending, taxing, and borrowing will continue unchecked for the coming fiscal year,” Ryan said. “The so-called ‘budget enforcement resolution’ enforces no budget, but instead provides a green light for the Appropriators to continue spending, exacerbating our looming fiscal crisis.”

As we reported on HUMAN EVENTS, CBO issued a dire warning about the long term outlook for the budget.

“Yesterday, the Congressional Budget Office rang the latest fiscal alarm with the release of The Long-Term Budget Outlook,” Ryan said. “Today, Congress again hit snooze. To avert a fiscal and economic calamity, Washington needs to wake up.”


http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=37893

yes, well, surprise surprise... been there, saw that, done that... this is only the beginning. buckle up, it's gonna get funnier soon

Regarding yesterday’s exchange with Piters, I read today that a confidential report by Merill Lynch outlines an expectation that Spain will go cap in hand to the ECB for a loan within the next few months. In addition to this, Italy, too, may require assistance.

Yesterday, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero announced that Spain is solvent and strong… hmm, well, I am still unclear as to the state of the Cajas; they are unlisted, deal with local communities, and account for almost half of all lending in Spain. National banks do not seem to be that forthcoming with the truth, either. Okay, so far the listed banks seem to have rode out the current recession rather well, but then it seems, according to reports, they don’t really deal with people from the street. That is, people wanting a mortgage. Hmm, not sure about that, and suspect the larger banks somehow underwrite the smaller, but are able to keep it off the books.

We saw that the latest sale of Spanish five-year debt realized the €3.5bn value, but at a rate of 6.6%... it’s becoming expensive. I suspect the buyers have done their math and will realize their projected gains, but this may be one of the last times to do so. I fear if/when Spain approaches the ECB/IMF, there will be a run on the Euro that will affect Italy, who in turn, will have no choice but to approach the ECB/IMF, and then who knows, Euro V1 may well be over. We see how quickly sentiment shifts as of late, so that Euro V2 on 01.01.11 is looking like a good bet.

This brings me to what I consider to be a point for future analysis. Germany does not have the money for this, and is increasingly looking elsewhere for trading partners. France, on the other hand, cannot afford for the PIGS to drop out of the Euro… thus presenting a dilemma for the Franco-Germanic partnership that heads the Euro, and accounting for, in this author’s opinion, the underlying reason for the increasing disagreements between these two countries. France is economically second to Germany, and I doubt very much wants to become the lesser player in any future Euro currency that will undoubtedly be dominated by Germany.

The cracks are getting larger as the transparency of fiscal state becomes more opaque, and the lack of central cohesion across Europe shows exactly what this author has discussed now for the last six months. A common currency one cannot have without a common command based on common levels of fiscal, political and legal standardization. That is, a true federation. This will not happen, and so we have a common currency that is failing within a fiscally, politically, legally, and culturally, divided region.

Fast approaches the time when this dream of utopia by money and power will be forgotten. Of course, again, it will be the people who suffer; prior to money and power attempting to build another utopia.

post as last week without the charts but im pretty sure if your reading this you have them so uj broke support which kind off surprised me not where uj is but geppy ( not forgetting the indices ) now cable's rise giving us a smaller range on gj so the same rules apply take profit daily basically im saying theres no swing trade here just yet i also said 2 weeks ago this isnt easy to trade at the moment and many traders would say switch to the majors which isnt bad advice but once you take your eye off the ball the beast is running ( everyone to their own ) so we wait with a slightly bullish out look with very bad news what im trying to say is scalp or do sweet f a

good luck all

ps - the people that make money wait and then wait some more read about the turtles if you can

pps - money does flow in waves theres no question about that so sometimes sitting out the first move isnt a bad idea

Gbp/usd of 1.528 and Bini-th 1.358

that were 1.382 Level Of Fibo 1.528

and

Lowest Support 1.358 ..

looks great awaiting that setup for the next trade!

this is a beauty!