Cable Trading (Serious Trading No Jokes)

forgot to add, i do not see any selling power before 5.30 pm indian time, this should be just around nfp news

What Does Non-Farm Payroll Mean?
A statistic researched, recorded and reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics intended to represent the total number of paid U.S. workers of any business, excluding the following employees:

- general government employees
- private household employees
- employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals
- farm employees

This monthly report also includes estimates on the average work week and the average weekly earnings of all non-farm employees.

The total non-farm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States. The non-farm payroll statistic is reported monthly, on the first Friday of the month, and is used to assist government policy makers and economists determine the current state of the economy and predict future levels of economic activity.

Wall Street economists were already predicting a horrible number when the June jobs report (http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/tpg/financial-market-news/news-0629103.html) is released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, but the evidence is quickly pushing experts to reevaluate their predictions for a more demoralizing figure.

The number is widely expected to be a negative; however, some feel the private sector should show a net job gain, which would be welcome news for all who are trying to find some evidence the economic recovery is in place.
The government reported last month that more than 400,000 net new jobs were added to payrolls for the month of May. On the surface, the figure is astonishing, but the majority of those new jobs came in the form of temporary census workers with a very small gain in private sector employment.

Fast-forward to the June numbers, and the opposite is expected to occur. The government has already announced that 25% of those same temporary census workers hired in May were eliminated in June. The lost jobs are expected to push the month-to-month number into the negative category. However, there is hope the private sector added over 100,000 net new jobs for the month (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/upcoming-jobs-report-looks-even-darker-2010-07-01?reflink=MW_news_stmp).

Any figure below the six-digit mark and economists may be left wondering what happened.

Considering that $787 billion in stimulus was added to the nation's economy, many felt the employment picture would be robust by now. Job growth should be seen, but after Wednesday's dismal report from ADP, it is clear that private employers are going to be slow to add to payrolls.
In the ADP report, Wall Street analysts predicted a gain of 60,000 new hires in the private sector for the month of June; however, the number reported was 13,000. Following the release, some forecasters marked down their predictions for Friday's employment report.

For example, Nomura Securities is now forecasting a rise of 100,000 private sector jobs (http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/marksjarvis_on_money/2010/06/adp-employment-report-again-hints-at-an-upcoming-bad-employment-report.html), much less than the 140,000 previously expected. So far, though, the reductions haven't been large enough to move the median forecast of a loss of 110,000 total jobs and a gain of 110,000 for private payrolls, according to MarketWatch.

The outlook is even cloudier as economists worry about the stability of the U.S. economy and its ability to create permanent jobs for the approximate 15 million out-of-work Americans.

Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which oversees the ADP survey, says better growth in wages and salaries will be need to support second-half growth given how important consumer spending is to U.S. economic growth. "But labor income can't grow strongly when payrolls are barely increasing," he says.

As MarketWatch concludes: "The week ADP number follows a series of other disappointing trends. Sinking stock prices, euro zone debt problems and sluggish factory reports from Federal Reserve regional banks suggest the economy hit an air pocket at the end of the second quarter. Continued weak hiring raises concerns about strength in the second half of the year."

http://www.benzinga.com/10/07/358977/nonfarm-payroll-numbers-could-be-affected-by-dismal-adp-report


always mention the source of your copy paste

its not important if it was a copy paste, its more important to know what is going on before the news comes out

planning how to trade a major news event is more important than petty things

welcome to my ignore list, sorry you will miss this wonderful thread forever

theoreticaly his should drive cable up today right?

looks that way, cause despite being over bought on smaller time frames, there is no selling interest here

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/7828/39661973.gif

2 things come to my mind here, unless i am wrong in what i am thinking

considering this 4 hour channel, we could go to 5250 area on a spike

http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/2615/71921733.gif


and weekly bounce zone also comes in @ 5238

http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/1166/gg2.gif

also in asian session didnt even go down 50 pips!

think yes we are going to see a continaution to the upside,

although the uptrend channel today should indicate that cable needs to retract a little after yesterday before going up again, but news are news and can change the whole thing

GM.......mmm - 5250 area and this is what I found on my chart....pity I cant stay to see if we get another LO fakout followed by a 150 pip move - not IMO likely today - but 75 pips up to 5250 - quite possible

5250 didnt happen lol. i am short from 5175 hoping to reach DP at 5075. may be thats too much for a NFP day, we ll see

I agree, the PA has a lot of buying interest

http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/6870/gg2h.gif

I will be closing some longs @ 5200 , will plan fresh trades in the next grid of 50

closed

http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/6870/gg2h.gif

This grid trading is simply too cool, just can't make any mistakes here

I think this push above 5200, may open the next grid, but i am not sure if i should enter here

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/6870/gg2h.gif

considering the channel we have been following, 5250 should be the max top

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/5439/gg2e.gif

buying interest is just too powerful here

this does point that the NFP jobs data will be a surprise this month

http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/1166/gg2.gif

Forexlion just wondering about grid trading. Two questions. 1) do you always use the 50 pip level and 2) if you have time can you explain the method. I assumes (maybe wrongly) that you trade breaks of the grid and trade to the next line capturing a series of 50 pips?

Many thanks

could you pls advice whats the grid?