vsa with Malcolm

LOL

I got 207 pips today from GU that say VSA rocks

is that all

and that post was mine

go take a look at 6 b today .. wide spread up bar massive volume right into old resistance

to of a massive up trend is not going to end in a day

Been on aj all day

Thanks Malcolmb for answering!

im still trying to figure out which are the valid no supply/no demand bars.. most time i seem to have spot strength in the background then i look/wait for bars: climatic action -> test/no supply -> confirmation bar... then i enter trade but sometimes it still turned against me... i lookout for the resistence &support levels before entry as well as vsa (price and volume) and i use the fibanacci to "guess" my exits.. (although price tend to react to the fibs, i still think its not the best method.)

I vists this forum everyday to read posts from Malcolm, f451 and Intel and HiddenGap. i believe vsa is the real way to do forex...but im still no good enough.. i am suspecting if trading on smaller timeframe more prone to fail trades or i must be missing something

He was quoting you, and when I quoted him, all I got was your quote!

6b?

Ok Guys bare with me, just took the chart from Euro/usd today and obviously im doing analysis in hindsight which helps, anyone who could comment would help thanks


A- Ok,so here what i regard as the start of the move a down bar on high volume, buyers?
B- Next Bar is also down with roughly the same spread if not slightly smaller spread however the volume has also slightly increased (Value of 4 on interbank).which could indicate that supply is overcoming demand.
C- The Next bar is up, confirming the previous bars buying (even though its low demand), the buying is enough to knock the market sideways.
D- Here we see volume is lower than the previous bars, being what looks like a test bar (taking out the low of the previous bar). The next bar is up confirming the test, and we have a response to the test (and the effort in Bars A and B). Just like to note on the small rally there is a negative volume divergence.
E- Bar E is intresting as it mark the end of the small rally however it has higher volume that the bars in the rally, with a much narrower spread, indicating that supply has hit the market?
F- The next bar is down confirming this, however the volume is much lower. here we can definatly see the market is going sideways, but the supply is being removed (indicated by low vol down bars).
G- Not too sure about this one..possibly indecision? input?
H- This bar is down, with very little volume, indicating no supply (its lower volume than bar F which was at a high point in the chart showing still no supply)
I- This Bar has a narrower spread than I with and increase in volume, we need the next bar up to show deman is starting to overcome supply.
J- J represents two bars and to me it shows effort to go up however next bar is down, which with the strength in the background (A,B,C,D etc), we come to the conclusion that its not ready to up just yet.
K- We have another low volume down bar (no supply) lowest volume yet. which next bar responds upwards.
L- Im not too sure about this bar low volume uplthrust like bar, seems to start a small downtrend.
M- M covers two bars, first being the red bar with largest spread in the small downtrend and hightest volume, this small rally does have selling pressure as volume incresases in the way down however the next bar (green) is up, (possible bullish englufing pattern also) indicating there were infact buyers in the last bar. this bars voume in relatvily low.
Note: from around area M to N we see voume start to steadily increase which is a positive for the rally.
N- This is the first sign of absorption volume, as we pushed through previous highs, and the next 3 bars we narrower spreads with higher volume, one of which an upthrust (supply hitting the market). although we do seem to see some no supply/test bars in a 5 min timeframe.
O- is intresting although you would first think this is no demand (even though spread isnt really narrow), we must remember that we are currently in an uptrend and although we do see wide spread up on high vol and supply hitting the market, we can also see some form of testing on the five minute charts. This could be an area where we could take profits off or tighten stops! but the trend is still in play.
P- Even though we see some action from the weakness P shows an increase in volume and the spread is the same as the bar before, if this was seeling how did it not go down more? the next bar is up confirming buying....remember the trend is your friend.

Note. From the effort of buying in A and B we can see that the lows were defended by supporting the price, on 2 different occasions suggesting, some form of accumulation possibly.

IF.... a stop was placed under these two bars and we entered on any of the test/no supply bars we can see that there was a healthy risk/reward ration...(but IF...my aunt had ball she'd be my uncle lol)

Im here to learn like everyone else, if anyone has any input or im wrong somewhere please do tell me.

Note. i didnt have the time to sort out support resistance areas and other timeframes....sorry and ive not read this through before posting so if it dont make sense you know why!! haha.

simple approach -
this chart shows buying at the bottom of the range, but NO selling. most probably, this is profit taking mode and support will be retested again and then we'll see if we are going up or down.

p.s. if there's no significant selling, it means that big boys didn't finish buying... which is the case here... therefore price should head back down for another round of support testing.

Hello Malc,

I was looking to catch AJ for a short once it retraced and what a bounce we have had today! Would you mind sharing where you see a likely resistance level now and whether you'll be short again on this?

Thanks!

Mo.

odd market almost like something somewhere been leaked .. or they pushing markets up prior to nfp .. not sure

aj may be heading back to 75

I had my 80 pips on AJ short from 73.810 and I only took 30 off the table because I was thinking about your 72 target prediction - D'oh! Gotta remember to trade what's right there on the chart in front of me... still 30 pips is 30 pips

Intel, I'm impressed that you read that up move. It was clear as mud to me...
Can you post a chart with your thinking?

do not forget about hulls either....it turned on 60 min at 73.5 as soon as it turns sell trade is over.

also something was up with the market today . I mean euro had its biggest move since 2009 today and it was up not down ....

the only place i could have seen to get into the gu move was on the test on a 30 min once the move was uderway

i was asleep when the move happened but even if i was awake i don't think i would entered, right at the pivot(from us close) we had a nice no demand on 1h chart and of course i would watch for signs to enter short...and allot of times i miss the moves because i'm set to enter on 1 side and i'm ignoring the rest, i'm thinking everything else is just noise or i don't take the trade because the next support/resistance line is to close 20, 30 pips and with the confirmation is even less and the chart doesn't mind to much of this and continue the move, but is to late for me to enter, and allot of frustration after. doe's this happens just to me?...anyway after that the next up candle booom and after that i didn't find a place to enter...anyway respect for those who took their share of steak

Yeah, I saw consolidation and a little test on 15M before the (first) effort to rise, but there wasn't enough strength in the background to convince me to step in. which is why I'm curious what Intel saw to convince him to go for it.

Pretty big move too. I watched it go up and up and up looking to see if there would be weakness I could short later. Nope. Just up.

I think that happens to everyone - kudos to you if you stay out when you think the S/R will stuff up your risk reward on the trade, and kudos for not chasing the trend - at least you're avoiding account draining mistakes

Anyone have a Hulls MA indicator for Ninja Trader?

Good day malcolmb, will you enlighten me here why do you see weakness ? Is it because on daily it is downtrend? or do you see weakness on this 4 hour chart, please enlighten me, although its taught tt there is weakness in uptrend but this graph seems to show more buying than selling (due to reverse upthrusts) ?

Hope you will help me, really appreciate your time n effort.
Been reading your posts and demo trading myself but i dun have a fix sys yet and my equity curve is roller coaster riding. Really really confuse, please advise me, thank you very much

Bethel

I think the Euro retrace was long overdue, and this week's favourable ECB tender + Spanish bond auction, coupled with horror data from the US was the catalyst . As for the cable, it got dragged along for the ride.
I believe long term sentiment is still bearish though.

Aussie is heading up for now, due to our new PM settling the heat on the resource super tax.

LOVE THIS THREAD

Here's my two cents worth - marked up on Malcolm's chart - Malcolm and other more experienced VSA traders might disagree or correct my interpretation

Note: if you'd entered short after the possible no demand bar I marked in purple you would have been stopped out. I tend not to use 4HR charts because the sessions tend to skew the volume into regular patterns that affect my ability to read the bars. I look to spot climatic bars on 1HR or 4HR and then go down to M15 or M30 for a closer look where the bars are a little easier to read (as all the volumes are within one session and so the relative volumes between bars are unaffected by the changes in average volume as the sessions clock over)

f451