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Silent Service Method

  • #9,501
  • Jun 30, 2010 3:42pm Jun 30, 2010 3:42pm
Quoting clockwork71
Actually, I traveled all over the US following the Dutch. (Was young, and stupid. Sold almost everything I owned during that month. Lost my job, my apartment and girlfriend in the process. (I would do it all over again.) To be honest, there is a lot I don't remember about it either, but for other reasons. lol

I have a tattoo that is the WC mascot of 94 carrying the Dutch flag. Yes, it was a really, really, good time.

As far as OJ is concerned, I remember that. Can you imagine being Martin Dahlin of Sweden during this time? He is the guy on the...
That's a nice picture you've got there! I'm guessing the other guy is Stefan Schwarz?

I remember that WC like it was yesterday. Sweden performed quite well and brought home a bronze medal. Those were good times!
  • #9,502
  • Jun 30, 2010 3:44pm Jun 30, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting clockwork71
I don't know, and to be honest, the BoJ will get involved if this keeps up.
But the BOJ has never been on the winning side long-term.

A decade plus of deflation. Ouch.
  • #9,503
  • Jun 30, 2010 4:57pm Jun 30, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting Low
But the BOJ has never been on the winning side long-term.

A decade plus of deflation. Ouch.

Well, not necessarily true - take a look at the area I have marked on this chart. Truth is, a wicked 300 pip spike is going to hurt either way.

The last start of the carry trade move was kicked off via a BoJ intervention.
  • #9,504
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:55pm Jun 30, 2010 5:55pm
Hey traders,

Catching up and the thread...many new pages, traders, ideas.

Great trading everyone...Chris, J harv, low, arfer, samer (my man), trade, and many new guys...keep it up.

I wish evryone in the U.S. happy 4th...spend time with your family and friends and enjoy.

To the rest of the world...err have a great weekend and enjoy with your loved ones.

The markets are starting to show us their hand...so now is the time to get ready and be vigilant.

Keep watching the big charts...they never lie !


See ya next week,


humble golferfx
  • #9,505
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:16pm Jun 30, 2010 6:16pm
Quoting clockwork71
Well, not necessarily true - take a look at the area I have marked on this chart. Truth is, a wicked 300 pip spike is going to hurt either way.

The last start of the carry trade move was kicked off via a BoJ intervention.
Is this what you meant?

http://i46.tinypic.com/2vlkxhd.png
  • #9,506
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:52pm Jun 30, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting Low
Is this what you meant?

http://i46.tinypic.com/2vlkxhd.png
One of about 3 or 4 times if memory serves me well. To be honest - I think the real action will be in GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY anyway.
  • #9,507
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:53pm Jun 30, 2010 6:53pm
Quoting golferfx
Hey traders,

Catching up and the thread...many new pages, traders, ideas.

Great trading everyone...Chris, J harv, low, arfer, samer (my man), trade, and many new guys...keep it up.

I wish evryone in the U.S....
Thanks golfer. Glad to see you posting again.
  • #9,508
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:32pm Jun 30, 2010 8:32pm
The close of the S&P500 under the 1040-50 area is a big deal.

Do not let anyone tell you otherwise.

I am attaching a chart that I am going to be using to decide trades I am taking in both my retirement account, and my wife's 403b. (It's a special retirement account that people who work in educational settings get to have on top of 401ks.) *** It is a monthly chart, 20 years long.***

I will not be buying anything in either of these accounts for a while now. When we get to the two areas below, I am hoping for a nice monthly bar, or at least a weekly one telling me it's time to get back in. I will be buying banks then. (They make up a large percentage of the S&P's worth.)

This is the essence of the Silent Service ideal......it's about picking your spots and waiting to take the fight to the enemy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sp500.png Size: 83 KB
  • #9,509
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:56pm Jun 30, 2010 8:56pm
Quoting clockwork71
Well, not necessarily true - take a look at the area I have marked on this chart. Truth is, a wicked 300 pip spike is going to hurt either way.

The last start of the carry trade move was kicked off via a BoJ intervention.

LOL...A couple of good trades and I think I'm smart enough to tell you what's what. I remember very clearly just how expensive arrogance can be.
  • #9,510
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:30pm Jun 30, 2010 11:30pm
Quoting Low
LOL...A couple of good trades and I think I'm smart enough to tell you what's what. I remember very clearly just how expensive arrogance can be.

No worries. I am not saying they will - just that they have in the past. Actually, I like the gbp/jpy the most for a short......it seems to have more room to run.
  • #9,511
  • Jul 1, 2010 12:34am Jul 1, 2010 12:34am
hmm whats about usd/chf, only a pin? looks like it broke somehow
  • #9,512
  • Jul 1, 2010 12:37am Jul 1, 2010 12:37am
Quoting tobias24
hmm whats about usd/chf, only a pin? looks like it broke somehow
forget it, imho. way to small. usd/chf is down for about 1000 pips and this bar has the size of not more than 50 pips.
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #9,513
  • Edited 3:46am Jul 1, 2010 3:15am | Edited 3:46am
Would you guys short EUR/NZD solely on S/R + trend line hit? Correct me if I'm wrong but I can't see any obvious PA on previous short opportunities. Please share your thoughts on this daily chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd.png Size: 37 KB
  • #9,514
  • Jul 1, 2010 3:24am Jul 1, 2010 3:24am
Quoting Arfer Daily
If you don't mind my opinion on this I would say you are drawing too many trendlines but more importantly the trendlines you are drawing don't tell you anything about the current trend.
Quoting clockwork71
For the most part - they look reasonable. I do think that you should focus on main ones only.
@Arfer Daily, @clockwork71 Thanks for commenting my trend lines. I'll adjust my charts and upload a few new examples along with questions.
  • #9,515
  • Jul 1, 2010 3:34am Jul 1, 2010 3:34am
Quoting trade price
wait for the reversal and confirme with the candle pattern before entry.
Has there been any obvious candle patterns in previous short opportunities that I've missed? Just trying to learn what to look for Can't see any pin bars or engulfing candles... anything else?
  • #9,516
  • Jul 1, 2010 5:30am Jul 1, 2010 5:30am
Quoting aserbfx
forget it, imho. way to small. usd/chf is down for about 1000 pips and this bar has the size of not more than 50 pips.
sure, i look for long, however i expected different PA.
i entered to early and too big.
  • #9,517
  • Jul 1, 2010 7:01am Jul 1, 2010 7:01am
Quoting erdah
Would you guys short EUR/NZD solely on S/R + trend line hit? Correct me if I'm wrong but I can't see any obvious PA on previous short opportunities. Please share your thoughts on this daily chart.

Check the 4hour and even hourly chart at that trend line and see what it gives......
  • #9,518
  • Jul 1, 2010 7:03am Jul 1, 2010 7:03am
Quoting tobias24
hmm whats about usd/chf, only a pin? looks like it broke somehow

I don't have a pin, but we might be using two different brokers with two different time feeds.
  • #9,519
  • Jul 1, 2010 7:31am Jul 1, 2010 7:31am
Quoting trade price
here you go, i have used a chart to show you how i do.i am not good at explaining.(not a teacher just a trader).
Thanks, I appreciate your help and I'm learning a lot.

Back to EUR/NZD, now the 3H chart. There is a nice pin bar on the S/R line. Lucky me I did not enter, I would have been stopped out.

In hindsigh, why not enter at that pin bar? It didn't touch the trend line but that's not always the case, right?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd_pinbar.png Size: 24 KB
  • #9,520
  • Jul 1, 2010 7:32am Jul 1, 2010 7:32am
Quoting erdah
Thanks, I appreciate your help and I'm learning a lot.

Back to EUR/NZD, now the 3H chart. There is a nice pin bar on the S/R line. Lucky me I did not enter, I would have been stopped out.

In hindsigh, why not enter at that pin bar? It didn't touch the trend line but that's not always the case.
i entered and got stopped )
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