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help modification of an EA very profitable

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 29, 2010 1:53pm Jun 29, 2010 1:53pm
I had this idea while ago and tried it on demo and it works nicely 100% profit if you have the $$ not to get margin call (actually I have never got passed level 4 so far) .

then I searched for some one who might had came up with same Idea and the following link has an EA similar idea but not the same http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=184861

I want to trade this manually but I want to test it's history by EA to get the best pips numbers and lot sizes .

to the idea,
yes its martingale , and yes its hedging.
just like the EA in the mentioned thread exactly but with a simple twist I beleive it will solve the sideway PA.

that makes it almost impossible to reach passed level 7.


with every new position created, it will be created 10 pips higher from last buy position and collect the 10 pips from the previous buy position and for the sell position the new ones will be opened 10 pips lower than previous sell and will collect the profit of the last sell position. ofcorse will increase the TP for the size of the hedge plus the 10 pips added

the purpose of this is that PA does 2 things only , either Trend (up or down ) or go in sideways.

but it doesn't make new highs then new lows constantly .

it can't go up 40 then down 50 then up 60 then down 70 then up 80 then down 90 .

I guess now you will get my point .
after searching charts manually I haven't seen such scenario .

I know the EA is profitable but it has big draw dawn on side ways and can't be trusted on its own .

if any one who knows how to program this addition to the EA it would be a big contribution .

if you still don't understand my theory please ask I will explain more
I SEE YOU !!
  • #2
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:28pm Jun 29, 2010 2:28pm
How would your system fare on march 18, 2009? Price moved almost 100 pips in one minute, and ultimately 250 pips in 15 minutes.
  • #3
  • Edited 2:51pm Jun 29, 2010 2:41pm | Edited 2:51pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
How would your system fare on march 18, 2009? Price moved almost 100 pips in one minute, and ultimately 250 pips in 15 minutes.
ofcorse it will win , it trades with the trend , not against it. in fact i wish all days have this big moves so that it wins easily
if you could lend me a hand please in programing i will describe you in detail how it should trade .
I assure you that you will like it
I SEE YOU !!
  • #4
  • Jun 29, 2010 5:03pm Jun 29, 2010 5:03pm
Quoting dbfusion
yes its martingale , and yes its hedging. just like the EA in the mentioned thread exactly but with a simple twist I beleive it will solve the sideway PA. ........ I know the EA is profitable but it has big draw dawn on side ways and can't be trusted on its own . ....... if you still don't understand my theory please ask I will explain more
IMO, anybody who's serious about developing or running an EA of this kind should ask questions like these:

 

  1. Does the "simple twist" involve any kind of market analysis (and if so, what is it?), or is it purely MM based?
  2. What do you mean by "can't be trusted on it's own"? Does that mean that some kind of manual intervention is necessary, and if so, what does it involve?
  3. Is it profitable without the martingale component?
  4. In post #3 you say it "trades with the trend". How does it determine the direction and/or strength of the trend?

Sorry about the probing nature of the questions, but I'm innately skeptical of EAs of this kind. Why? Because I must ask why the world's top traders, and biggest institutional funds, prefer to use market analysis and risk management, and are willing to settle for more modest returns, rather than trying to grow their accounts continuously by using progressive sizing.

Saying that one particular martingale is profitable is effectively meaningless. EVERY martingale is always going to be profitable, because that is the very nature of martingale, to recover all recent losses in a single trade. You can backtest martingale as far as you like, but you're always gambling on the assumption that the worst case scenario in your test sample will never be beaten (by whatever safety margin you allow for) in the live run. The penalty for getting it wrong, just once, is instantaneous ruin. A 'black swan' event - prolonged sideways movement, in this case - can happen, and completely unexpectedly, at any time.

Unless there's some kind of market analysis, and consequent timing of entries and exits, that provides positive expectancy, one is ultimately doing nothing more than gambling. Forex is inherently negative sum, and MM techniques (scaling, hedging, progressive sizing, etc) in themselves can never overcome this. That's one of the biggest reasons why becoming long term profitable is so difficult.

  • #5
  • Jun 30, 2010 12:39am Jun 30, 2010 12:39am
Quoting hanover

  1. Does the "simple twist" involve any kind of market analysis (and if so, what is it?), or is it purely MM based?
  2. What do you mean by "can't be trusted on it's own"? Does that mean that some kind of manual intervention is necessary, and if so, what does it involve?
  3. Is it profitable without the martingale component?
  4. In post #3 you say it "trades with the trend". How does it determine the direction and/or strength of the trend?


thank you for being interested and no need to be sorry , you should ask these questions .

it seems I didn't explain it well .
1- the twist , based on PA's normal behavior only(you can call it analysis).
2- it can't be profitable without the martingale component.
3- it trades with the trend in a breakout method so the higher big is always in the direction of recent high or lows that got broken.
4- when I said its not trusted , that's because I don't like the idea of a an EA opening trades while I am asleep , what if internet goes off what if electricity whet off , what if PC restarted .
those are my reasons not to use any EA but if you guarantee all those external influences ofcorse it can trade , it doesn't need any manual intervention.

the idea based on what doesn't happen .

the only way for you to lose is if the PA moves in a way that its impossible .

you lose if PA moves up 30 then down 40 then up 50 then down 60 then up 70 then down 80 then up 90 then down 100 ..etc and only in these numbers

if it goes 60 up you win, 60 down you win ,40 up then 60 down you win ,moves 100 pip in 1 minute you win .

its extremely rare to see it does that action that makes you lose, and by saying extreemly rare , is that i saw it manually on one day which was vacation for banks and only once in the chart since the history of euro chart. and it reached level 6 only (that's using the 30 pip gain if using different number then it might be better than 30).

for the question of why the big guys don't use it , probably they didn't think about it .
its brand new idea and trust me its worth of doing it . don't exclude that the idea is very unique .
I wouldn't dare to post asking for help unless i am damn sure its a wining system.
I SEE YOU !!
  • #6
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:48am Jun 30, 2010 8:48am
Quoting dbfusion
ofcorse it will win , it trades with the trend , not against it. in fact i wish all days have this big moves so that it wins easily
if you could lend me a hand please in programing i will describe you in detail how it should trade .
I assure you that you will like it
The trend that day was down until the FOMC announcement. So I'll ask again. How would the system have fared?

A lot of traders I know who were hedging and using martingale went bankrupt that day. They simply couldn't take the hit.
  • #7
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:03am Jun 30, 2010 10:03am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
The trend that day was down until the FOMC announcement. So I'll ask again. How would the system have fared?

A lot of traders I know who were hedging and using martingale went bankrupt that day. They simply couldn't take the hit.
The system is profitable but not last long..same as other martingale..
Few traders had done the same, search post by TDION, FXProTrader and the system not last long...

On the swan day, it sure will profitable...but not for the long sideways...it happen base on my EA backtest year ago..
  • #8
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:10am Jun 30, 2010 10:10am
Quoting akukaya
The system is profitable but not last long..same as other martingale..
Few traders had done the same, search post by TDION, FXProTrader and the system not last long...

On the swan day, it sure will profitable...but not for the long sideways...it happen base on my EA backtest year ago..
To make the idea more fun, many variants of different entry signal, timing, etc..I can say it is one of fun EA to play with...

and one can varies the step pips too..
  • #9
  • Jun 30, 2010 12:23pm Jun 30, 2010 12:23pm
Quoting akukaya
The system is profitable but not last long..same as other martingale..
Few traders had done the same, search post by TDION, FXProTrader and the system not last long...

On the swan day, it sure will profitable...but not for the long sideways...it happen base on my EA backtest year ago..
if you based your entry on 30m chart or 1h chart close to one of the bollinger bands (high or low) I bet you cant have level 6 .
that's how i use it my self
I SEE YOU !!
  • #10
  • Jun 30, 2010 12:27pm Jun 30, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
The trend that day was down until the FOMC announcement. So I'll ask again. How would the system have fared?

A lot of traders I know who were hedging and using martingale went bankrupt that day. They simply couldn't take the hit.
because there will be a pending order ready for buy , while another TP order ready to collect .
so any sudden move even 10000 pip down or up you win .
I SEE YOU !!
  • #11
  • Jun 30, 2010 12:29pm Jun 30, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting akukaya
To make the idea more fun, many variants of different entry signal, timing, etc..I can say it is one of fun EA to play with...

and one can varies the step pips too..
if you have seen such system before please send me link , I can't find it in the forum.

I thought it was unique Idea
I SEE YOU !!
  • #12
  • Jul 1, 2010 12:56am Jul 1, 2010 12:56am
Quoting dbfusion
thank you for being interested and no need to be sorry , you should ask these questions .......
Many thanks for your detailed reply.

I'm sorry, but martingale systems frighten me. Even if the risk of its exceeding 4 or 5 levels is extremely small, it is always there, and markets can potentially do anything, at any time. I don't have the nerve to risk money in this kind of scenario, knowing that there is the possibility that I could lose it all on a single trade (or a short sequence of trades).

Anyway, I wish you all the best with your EA. I hope that you can find somebody to code it for you.
  • #13
  • Jul 1, 2010 2:15am Jul 1, 2010 2:15am
Quoting hanover
Many thanks for your detailed reply.

I'm sorry, but martingale systems frighten me. Even if the risk of its exceeding 4 or 5 levels is extremely small, it is always there, and markets can potentially do anything, at any time. I don't have the nerve to risk money in this kind of scenario, knowing that there is the possibility that I could lose it all on a single trade (or a short sequence of trades).

Anyway, I wish you all the best with your EA. I hope that you can find somebody to code it for you.
thank you

I understand your point.

the code is there in the first post just this modification is the needed , i guess it won't take 10 minutes from experienced programmer.
I hope some one might try to do it
I SEE YOU !!
  • #14
  • Jul 1, 2010 8:58pm Jul 1, 2010 8:58pm
I am not a "pro" in programing, but I might help you, I am trying something similar... but still I am not convinced it is the best idea... Please pm me with the details and what do you want to change, I am going to give it a shot.
  • #15
  • Jul 1, 2010 9:30pm Jul 1, 2010 9:30pm
Quoting hanover
Many thanks for your detailed reply.

I'm sorry, but martingale systems frighten me. Even if the risk of its exceeding 4 or 5 levels is extremely small, it is always there, and markets can potentially do anything, at any time. I don't have the nerve to risk money in this kind of scenario, knowing that there is the possibility that I could lose it all on a single trade (or a short sequence of trades).

Anyway, I wish you all the best with your EA. I hope that you can find somebody to code it for you.
The way I see it, there is always a chance you going to loose money in forex with martingale or not. "the risk is always there, and markets can potentially do anything, at any time" as long as you are in the market. Sure with martingale you can loose a lot in a very short time, but also you can loose in a longer period time same money if you are "unlucky" and have many consecutive looses without martingale

Hanover I respect you very much, I read most of your posting and I have a question for you, don't you think if you using a way of martingale that has a very low risk of failure say once in 15 years it is same risk like any profesional trader is taking with no martingale? I mean money wise you end up with a lot more money just by using martingale, of course you withdraw your profits all the time.

I am not sure if you understand what I am trying to say. After 15 years of trading if you add all the small losses from a non martingale trader, you will be surprise to find out they are more then a "smart" martingale trader who lost only once in the same period.. What do you thing? Why most "experienced" traders run away when they hear "martingale"? They don't want even to analize it a litlle bit? It might have a chance..
  • #16
  • Jul 1, 2010 9:55pm Jul 1, 2010 9:55pm
Quoting iulli
The way I see it, there is always a chance you going to loose money in forex with martingale or not. "the risk is always there, and markets can potentially do anything, at any time" as long as you are in the market. Sure with martingale you can loose a lot in a very short time, but also you can loose in a longer period time same money if you are "unlucky" and have many consecutive looses without martingale

Hanover I respect you very much, I read most of your posting and I have a question for you, don't you think if you using a way of martingale...
Martingale doesn't have one major loss. It has a string of losses which build on top of each other until--hopefully--one win offsets all previous losses. The string of losses will almost always inevitably result in what many here call the 'death trade' the point at which you blow your account.

Take for example blackjack. In blackjack, there is something called 'basic strategy' it's basically a set of rules which tell you what action to take when you have a given hand. If you pay attention to the MIT players featured in the movie 21 and the documentary Taking Vegas, their money management was not based on the previous wins and losses, but rather the odds of the next hand being a winner. This is largely how I do my trading. I size my lot based on the likelihood that the trade will be a winner.
  • #17
  • Jul 1, 2010 11:01pm Jul 1, 2010 11:01pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Take for example blackjack. In blackjack, there is something called 'basic strategy' it's basically a set of rules which tell you what action to take when you have a given hand. If you pay attention to the MIT players featured in the movie 21 and the documentary Taking Vegas, their money management was not based on the previous wins and losses, but rather the odds of the next hand being a winner. This is largely how I do my trading. I size my lot based on the likelihood that the trade will be a winner.
Yes I like that, It is good to increase bets if you have a positive better chance of wining, not just on previous loses or wins. So when you do have a positive expectancy do you make more money by betting flat or by using any "martingale" or semimartingale or other bets sizing? Does it make sense to use martingale in this situation?
  • #18
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:14am Jul 2, 2010 12:14am
Quoting iulli
I am not a "pro" in programing, but I might help you, I am trying something similar... but still I am not convinced it is the best idea... Please pm me with the details and what do you want to change, I am going to give it a shot.
thank you for your interest , please see attachment , I hope it explains the strategy . if you still don't get it please ask me and I will answer.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip hedgingstrategy.zip   49 KB | 456 downloads
I SEE YOU !!
  • #19
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:20am Jul 2, 2010 12:20am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Martingale doesn't have one major loss. It has a string of losses which build on top of each other until--hopefully--one win offsets all previous losses. The string of losses will almost always inevitably result in what many here call the 'death trade' the point at which...
I respect your view but this martingale doesn't have string of losses.

it will be always one trade that is in loss .

the only problem is the size of the trade.
we are just trying to see if it happened in history then we will see if it can be avoided.

I have attached a zip file with explanation , I believe you still didn't get the theory .
please read it and tell me what you think .
I SEE YOU !!
  • #20
  • Jul 2, 2010 12:57am Jul 2, 2010 12:57am
Quoting iulli
ok, had a look at...
I know about spreads , its just for easier description , but careful here.
there is no more than 2 open trades at any given time !!
we always collect 10 pips from the wining trade in case it oscillates !
so you end up with only 2 trades open .
the bigger bid is always at the side of recent high or low broken .
I SEE YOU !!
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