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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #228,541
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:21pm Jun 30, 2010 7:21pm
Quoting Beljevina
I'd expect Frankfurt or London to still take it lower and see if buyers show up. My guess is there won't be enough, and the retrace will be minimal. I'm going to try holding out some 134 shorts and more recent ones targeting 130.9/130.5. Regardless, I'm expecting NFP to create further downside, unless, we get caught in an anomaly of low liquidity, given the holidays in the US. I do find it suspect that we're creating this much down movement before what should be a bad NFP - haven't seen this combination of variables yet, but only been trading for...
One thing you have to take into account is that the expectations for NFP has been completely lowballed this month. FF Calendar is showing -105k by memory. While the ADP certainly showed there was diddly squat private hiring you have to take into account that census firings have only just started and will not be reflected in this upcoming NFP report.
  • #228,542
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:31pm Jun 30, 2010 7:31pm
i will try long here with 20pips SL
  • #228,543
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:33pm Jun 30, 2010 7:33pm
Quoting Nene
Some people never learn.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #228,544
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:47pm Jun 30, 2010 7:47pm
Quoting Eulogy
One thing you have to take into account is that the expectations for NFP has been completely lowballed this month. FF Calendar is showing -105k by memory. While the ADP certainly showed there was diddly squat private hiring you have to take into account that census firings have only just started and will not be reflected in this upcoming NFP report.
I didn't yet catch expected is -105K!!! How manipulative is that if the bar is set retardedly low! As far as strategy goes, sounds like something a grade 2 class would cook up! NFP announce PA sounds like a 40-80 pip fakeout dip down, and then a ride up?
  • #228,545
  • Edited 8:45pm Jun 30, 2010 8:30pm | Edited 8:45pm
Quoting Beljevina
I don't recall 132 being major support at all ... 131.5 is all kinds of support. Regardless, we are in mini-kaboom mode here ... GY is delivering among the best of the yens. CADJPY just smashed through support and might find a slight floor at 82.5. The risk aversion and yen strength being driven is uncanny. Coming up on 10pm EST/11AM Tokyo and Tokyo's lunch - might slow from here. Nikkei is 1.5% down as are other Asian equities - they must be plowing money into the yen as the last safe haven.

Check UJ: I in know way expected 88.2 to...
Nice short on AY, in asia.. followed with another floor break on UY and GU...

Look UY bit better. open daily, weekly... looks similar to SPX and DJIA, if this start playing on.. then testing the low, with probably a NEW one... is posible.. in case we really see some retracement in equities on S&P.. [down to 8830 and 8300]

BTW.. the photo from your profile page is DUBROVNIK ?
  • #228,546
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:32pm Jun 30, 2010 8:32pm
Quoting Eulogy
One thing you have to take into account is that the expectations for NFP has been completely lowballed this month. FF Calendar is showing -105k by memory. While the ADP certainly showed there was diddly squat private hiring you have to take into account that census firings have only just started and will not be reflected in this upcoming NFP report.
550K in one month difference is amazing..
looks as we are recalling "Bears and Lehman Times"
  • #228,547
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:50pm Jun 30, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting Nene
Some people never learn.
one of the 'people' is you...
  • #228,548
  • Jun 30, 2010 9:43pm Jun 30, 2010 9:43pm
Quoting Piters
BTW.. the photo from your profile page is DUBROVNIK ?
Yes, that's exactly it. A great place to visit, as is the whole country.

Looks like retrace for the sterlings and yen crosses is on. For GU, am looking for a possible short around 1.498, and then a trip down to 1.485 (or vice-versa? - yen index just continues to rocket) through London or into NY start. Am expecting GJ to be at 130.5 by then; remember GBP manufacturing PMI may or may not help us get there. Then, 3 fairly big metrics at 8:30 NY time, of which you'd expect further down moves based on bad numbers. Not really sure what to expect with US equities direction for Thursday, chart and time-of-month + lower volume could send us anywhere.
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  • #228,549
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:01pm Jun 30, 2010 10:01pm
Asia equity markets are certainly seeing a large pickup in volume these last 2 days (about a 40-50% increase from the previous few days and weeks). What concerns me is that this is occuring when Asian equities is seeing some quite long wicks on the recent daily candles.
  • #228,550
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:04pm Jun 30, 2010 10:04pm
Quoting Beljevina
I'd expect Frankfurt or London to still take it lower and see if buyers show up. My guess is there won't be enough, and the retrace will be minimal. I'm going to try holding out some 134 shorts and more recent ones targeting 130.9/130.5. Regardless, I'm expecting NFP to create further downside, unless, we get caught in an anomaly of low liquidity, given the holidays in the US. I do find it suspect that we're creating this much down movement before what should be a bad NFP - haven't seen this combination of variables yet, but only been trading for...
Be careful about the bad news of the NFP already being priced in. I'm expecting a bad report as well and further confirmation of the Head and Shoulders on the S&P, but with all this doom and gloom, you never know if it just might bounce. Since everyone is expecting a bad number that leaves more room to a an upside bounce
  • #228,551
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:29pm Jun 30, 2010 10:29pm
Well, someone is buying this. Looking at volumes from yesterday, there were indications of buying on each dip. We fell lower, but my instinct is that this could be trappish. This is quite telling when we consider the bearishness of the market in general.

I have a small long in place, targeting just under 133, but will scalp the lower break if we get a shake-down through support too.
  • #228,552
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:26pm Jun 30, 2010 11:26pm
yes, and price keeps going down. this means they didn't finish buying... simple thing - when they finish buying, they will start selling and we'll know it when we see hidden selling on every rally. that would be the safest moment to go long

here's a chart. not a very coherent selling activity, is it? so... the dip is not over yet.

Quoting ukdaytrader
Well, someone is buying this. Looking at volumes from yesterday, there were indications of buying on each dip. We fell lower, but my instinct is that this could be trappish. This is quite telling when we consider the bearishness of the market in general.

I have a small long in place, targeting just under 133, but will scalp the lower break if we get a shake-down through support too.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #228,553
  • Jul 1, 2010 12:05am Jul 1, 2010 12:05am
wonder if it works....
good trades for all...
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  • #228,554
  • Jul 1, 2010 1:44am Jul 1, 2010 1:44am
Well, GU didn't hold 1.4935 on pullback, so GU projected further down moves.
UJ still on resistance level so this one still could pull up, if it breaks resistance downwards I do not expect huge movements because of its absolute level.

So maybe shorts in GU are more rewarding then any positions in GJ

Shorting GU @ 1.4930
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #228,555
  • Jul 1, 2010 2:13am Jul 1, 2010 2:13am
http://askafo.com/july2010p/172010gj-54e454j.PNG
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #228,556
  • Jul 1, 2010 2:15am Jul 1, 2010 2:15am
Quoting USD-Bear
Well, GU didn't hold 1.4935 on pullback, so GU projected further down moves.
UJ still on resistance level so this one still could pull up, if it breaks resistance downwards I do not expect huge movements because of its absolute level.

So maybe shorts in GU are more rewarding then any positions in GJ

Shorting GU @ 1.4930
I am long on [email protected] and SL at BE lets see If i get something from this free trade now.
  • #228,557
  • Jul 1, 2010 2:17am Jul 1, 2010 2:17am
Quoting hindart
I am long on [email protected] and SL at BE lets see If i get something from this free trade now.
Maybe UJ will do the trick
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #228,558
  • Jul 1, 2010 2:44am Jul 1, 2010 2:44am
Quoting hindart
I am long on [email protected] and SL at BE lets see If i get something from this free trade now.
Sorry, it did not work +40 pips became 0pip
  • #228,559
  • Jul 1, 2010 3:00am Jul 1, 2010 3:00am
I'm seeing that many pairs and yen crosses specifically are seeing significant selling of their tops. Check your volume indicators. Retraces for most yen pairs are very weak, usually no more than 38.2%. Yen strength is on a tear. UJ looks to be in continuous decline mode, and I'm not sure there's a good reason why. I think significant shorting and selling is going on. Something's up.

I don't think it's NFP, as much as some of the other things not being properly reported: BP damage extent, methane gas implications, mass evacuations, geographic/economic damage, hurricane impact, food shortages, or something else. Certainly not every fx big boy is aware of it, as secrecy of their actions reigns paramount. And if/when any of these events receive the 'normal' media reporting, everyone - the masses - will begin a multifaceted panic, well, because we've been trained to panic. It might be that UJ will be the best short of all. Sure it sounds conspiracist, but the news reports on my above examples appear valid & genuine, and lots with the markets doesn't seem or feel right.

OK, I'm done.
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  • #228,560
  • Edited 3:53am Jul 1, 2010 3:10am | Edited 3:53am
Lokks like some Hidden Buying Going on...This long could be a rewarding..long...Stop at 130.85.. lets see

Long at 131.60..and short U/CAD

Enough of this Range...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
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