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vsa with Malcolm

  • #761
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:25am Jun 30, 2010 10:25am
You would expect the volume to drop off at this time of day so I'm not sure how much you could read into that.

It's certainly not finding any buyers at the 2290/2300 level but it's getting bought on dips and so far it's been making higher lows each time. The Euro has been stronger than the pound all day - maybe down to the successful bond issue this a.m., maybe it's just consolidating after having the shit kicked out of it earlier in the week.
  • #762
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:43am Jun 30, 2010 10:43am
Quoting toob
Agree! Last two weeks were awful...but GU was good today...


Regards
yeah but complete crap rest of week. Been on aj myself. awesome pair.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #763
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:44am Jun 30, 2010 10:44am
Quoting Ronlizard
You would expect the volume to drop off at this time of day so I'm not sure how much you could read into that.

It's certainly not finding any buyers at the 2290/2300 level but it's getting bought on dips and so far it's been making higher lows each time. The Euro has been stronger than the pound all day - maybe down to the successful bond issue this a.m., maybe it's just consolidating after having the shit kicked out of it earlier in the week.

yes volumes should drop off after london , hence I like a 10 min time frame .

EU may be on a retracement mode.
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  • #764
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:01am Jun 30, 2010 11:01am
Quoting Ronlizard
but it's getting bought on dips and so far it's been making higher lows each time. .
Thanks. down bar is being brought with low volume(yellow bar).
  • #765
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:17am Jun 30, 2010 11:17am
Quoting manojsai
Euro is showing weakness.. the two yellow volume bar shows low volume may be because buyers are demanding lower price.....and the horizontal indicator shows distribution.
please correct me if i am wrong since volume anaysis is new to me .
the volume histogram does show a large transfer of buyers to sellers in the area. It is also the 61.8 retrace of the last down move.

On a 15 min eu has very mixed signals in reagrds to vsa.

also es has been acting odd all day .

Must be waiting for the nfp ... .
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  • #766
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:58am Jun 30, 2010 11:58am
Quoting malcolmb14
eu is awesome for sell later in US if we get down movement after adp. sellers hitting market at 1.2303....
Captain obvious says; "Malcolmb is on the mark".

Nice job Mal. You are scary good.

A: Mal has pointed out previously that VSA is not one bar/candle, and why he would not be looking to go short here. It is true that the candle closes well off its lows on increasing climatic volume, and we know markets do not like up bars on climatic volume. However, we can't just short wily nily. Whilst the next candle does prove to be up, the close well off the high is a clue that some supply has entered the market.

B: This candle does close up, but look at where it closes in its own range and on increasing climatic volume. This candle make a higher high but ends up closing near its low. If the volume on this candle was buying then the close should be near the high, not the low. We have weakness on this candle which also serve to confirm weakness on the previous candle.

Again, Mal says wait. Momentum can, and in this case does, take us higher. This is where the Hulls, or in my case, the Dynamic Balance Point Line, can help keep the powder dry. I don't use the hull so I can't really speak to it. But for me, as long as price remains above the BPL, I don't want to enter a short position.

C: BINGO. Mal is spot on. This is more weakness. This candle makes a higher high than the previous candle but closes on its low on increasing and above average volume. Note also that the open is higher than the previous close while the close is less than the previous close (and its own open). Simply, this is a KRB & an Up Thrust.

Mal can't stress enough the value of understanding the background. There is really no reason at this point to be contemplating a long. The background is littered with weakness.

D: The BBs let their true intentions known. This is an advanced entry for
those that feel like money can only be made by getting in at or near the beginning. The range of this candle is increasing as this candle makes a higher high and not a lower low. This means it is a "buying" bar. Or so the general public think. In actuality we have to look at the volume. The volume is less then the previous two candles and less than average and the close is near the high. This bar is No Buying Pressure. The BBs are not interested in higher prices at this time. Also note that the No Buying Pressure candle moves up higher than the close of the Up Thrust but not as high as the candle 2 candles after the Up Thrust. This candle is not marked, but it is also No Buying Pressure as it has volume less than the previous two candles and is closing near its high with an increasing range.

This is a good entry and very much like an entry found in the original bootcamp with Tom and Todd.

E: The safer place to enter is here. We see a No Demand (up candle on volume less than the previous two candles) underneath the BPL. By this candle I would assume that Mal's Hulls are red and confirming a change in trend. That's what makes this such a strong entry: we have the weakness in the background and the change in trend.

As usual, nice job Mal. The rest of us are just playing checkers, while you are playing Chess......
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #767
  • Jun 30, 2010 12:00pm Jun 30, 2010 12:00pm
Just subscribing to the thread. Good work Malc.
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
  • #768
  • Jun 30, 2010 12:27pm Jun 30, 2010 12:27pm
awesome post as always ...

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Quoting HiddenGap
Captain obvious says; "Malcolmb is on the mark".

Nice job Mal. You are scary good.

A: Mal has pointed out previously that VSA is not one bar/candle, and why he would not be looking to go short here. It is true that the candle closes well off its lows on increasing climatic volume, and we know markets do not like up bars on climatic volume. However, we can't just short wily nily. Whilst the next candle does prove to be up, the close well off the high is a clue that some supply has entered the market.

B: This candle does close...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #769
  • Jun 30, 2010 12:40pm Jun 30, 2010 12:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
not really vsa bu here is weekly aj ...awesome 1-2-3 sell formation with target 75 and 65

Attachment

aj broke 75 ... look for any no demand bars on 15 min etc on up moves to get into a sell play into 72
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  • #770
  • Jun 30, 2010 12:52pm Jun 30, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting malcolmb14
aj broke 75 ... look for any no demand bars on 15 min etc on up moves to get into a sell play into 72
Good Afternoon Malc,

Do you think we will get a retest of the 75.00 level ? It would be a great entry for new shorts if it makes it up there.

Thanks & Regards,

Mo.
  • #771
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:03pm Jun 30, 2010 2:03pm
am capitalist first , But damn i hate it when the S&p collapses like this..


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  • #772
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:12pm Jun 30, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting Momomoney
Good Afternoon Malc,

Do you think we will get a retest of the 75.00 level ? It would be a great entry for new shorts if it makes it up there.

Thanks & Regards,

Mo.
not required .. just look for a flag to form on 5 min , move up then a no demand on 15 min .... that will get you into the sell
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #773
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:13pm Jun 30, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting taomql4
am capitalist first , But damn i hate it when the S&p collapses like this..


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaKRByNhb0Y
It is just getting wamred up ..wave 3 on weekly 900 to 850
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  • #774
  • Jun 30, 2010 3:22pm Jun 30, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting malcolmb14
not required .. just look for a flag to form on 5 min , move up then a no demand on 15 min .... that will get you into the sell
Hello Malc,

I was wondering if you are aware of any automated plug-in for Metatrader to automatically alert one about no demand bars and other VSA events in real time. Any suggestions or recommendations would be greatly appreciated.

Much obliged,

Mo.
  • #775
  • Jun 30, 2010 3:39pm Jun 30, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting Momomoney
Hello Malc,

I was wondering if you are aware of any automated plug-in for Metatrader to automatically alert one about no demand bars and other VSA events in real time. Any suggestions or recommendations would be greatly appreciated.

Much obliged,

Mo.
well...... odd you say that

I am getting my better volume indicator for esignal programmed to alert me on low churn bars etc etc ...

any wiz kid programmers out there for mt4 could maybe do the same things.

Better volume indie is not pure vsa , but it does show that something is going on with the volume / price action
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #776
  • Edited 6:47pm Jun 30, 2010 5:56pm | Edited 6:47pm
Quoting malcolmb14
well...... odd you say that

I am getting my better volume indicator for esignal programmed to alert me on low churn bars etc etc ...

any wiz kid programmers out there for mt4 could maybe do the same things.

Better volume indie is not pure vsa , but it does show that something is going on with the volume / price action
I can (and have) written code that marks various VSA bars on a chart. If people want this I could clean it up and post it. BUT, and this is big but, it has two issues - firstly - it's more and less accurate than the naked eye. To code these things you need specific VSA bar definitions to work with. I've collated those from various sources, and codified them as rules. Which means if you see a stopping volume bar, but it doesn't close in the top third, then my code won't mark it as stopping volume. But the bar is still a stopping volume. So this is one way in which it would be misleading. Alternatively, if you can't identify these bars right now, it could be helpful.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, my code doesn't provide the background context (at least not well). (That's actually what's impressive about SMART and tradeguider). This means it doesn't distinguish between a no demand bar and a bar that is simply an up bar on narrow spread with lower volume than the previous two bars sitting somewhere on your chart. So it's going to show you "polar bears in hawaii" to quote the tradeguider folks. To distinguish between these two different scenarios you need to take account of the background - and this is the background that everyone here is always on about. (I don't know how to code this. My attempts so far have been poor). the no demand bar is only a no demand after weakness. this means my code will mark some bars as no demand when they aren't. this will be very confusing to people trying to learn VSA, so I'm reluctant to provide it.

f451
  • #777
  • Jun 30, 2010 7:40pm Jun 30, 2010 7:40pm
Regarding background,
1. Maybe we could develop a dashboard which can tell what the Hulls of various timeframe tell the trend.
2. Or/and we start our analysis only after climax bars. That is, we regards climax bars as background, and nodemand/nosupply as confirmation or signal bars.
3. other r/s indicators help to identify background

Just my infant 0.02$. Hope it is of help.

Quoting f451
Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, my code doesn't provide the background context (at least not well). (That's actually what's impressive about SMART and tradeguider).
f451
  • #778
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:20pm Jun 30, 2010 8:20pm
i am training myself to first look for climax bars (and possibly some 'crowd' aftermath) ending up near S/R levels (pivots, Fibs, MMLs, previous tops/botts, TLs).

then i look for both 1. ND or NS bar/series of bars, and 2. shakeout/upthrust that is followed by a bearish/ND bar.

i am getting more interested in the hulls where there is already the above ^^ going on as well. one way to play it is, after the hull 21 & 34 cross wait for a pullback to around the 21/34 gap and then enter.



Quoting polomine
Regarding background,
1. Maybe we could develop a dashboard which can tell what the Hulls of various timeframe tell the trend.
2. Or/and we start our analysis only after climax bars. That is, we regards climax bars as background, and nodemand/nosupply as confirmation or signal bars.
3. other r/s indicators help to identify background

Just my infant 0.02$. Hope it is of help.
  • #779
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:52pm Jun 30, 2010 8:52pm
Mal, do you have any TP on your AJ short ? it is at a good support right now. wonder what will EU session bring.
Thanks in advance.
  • #780
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:55pm Jun 30, 2010 8:55pm
Quoting Honored
Mal, do you have any TP on your AJ short ? it is at a good support right now. wonder what will EU session bring.
Thanks in advance.
thinking 72 ..... that would mean this week is 650 pip range week.
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