Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
- #61
- Jun 30, 2010 10:56am Jun 30, 2010 10:56am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Technical fundamentalist | 2,202 Posts
- #64
- Jun 30, 2010 11:45am Jun 30, 2010 11:45am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Per Aspera Ad Astra | 6,262 Posts
- #65
- Jun 30, 2010 11:48am Jun 30, 2010 11:48am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Technical fundamentalist | 2,202 Posts
From the Daily Telegraph: Royal Bank of Scotland strategist Andrew Roberts said he sensed a "Minsky moment" approaching - the point identified by economist Hyman Minsky when investors start to panic. "We are seeing a snowball effect of negative news," he said. "It's all rather messy out there. In the last few days there has been a tangible shift from complacency to a realisation that maybe things aren't looking all that good. This is almost identical to two years ago – complacency giving way to the abundant risks out here."
Tomorrow, banks have to pay back 442bn Euro, and so bring to a close the ECB’s one year funding to help out.
After tomorrow, and assuming the one year loans are not renewed, what is left is three month funding options for those that need it. Today, the ECB was hailing the lower than expected tapping into of this fund by banks as a sign that things are getting better, and that there was inter-bank lending occurring within EuroLand. Hmm, not so fast there, boys. Other editorial would suggest that the low take up was entirely due to apprehension about the closure of the one year fund tomorrow.
Not to bore the reader with the columns contained within the ECBs accounts, and also to avoid any erroneous computation on my part, but the ECB is still lending at record levels, and if one is to look at the LTRO and MRO columns, things don’t add up. The ECB would have us believe that 1 in 7 banks require access to emergency funds at present, yet summation of the two aforementioned columns, would suggest that the figure is closer to 1 in 3, maybe even 1 in 2.
Dear me…
Tomorrow, banks have to pay back 442bn Euro, and so bring to a close the ECB’s one year funding to help out.
After tomorrow, and assuming the one year loans are not renewed, what is left is three month funding options for those that need it. Today, the ECB was hailing the lower than expected tapping into of this fund by banks as a sign that things are getting better, and that there was inter-bank lending occurring within EuroLand. Hmm, not so fast there, boys. Other editorial would suggest that the low take up was entirely due to apprehension about the closure of the one year fund tomorrow.
Not to bore the reader with the columns contained within the ECBs accounts, and also to avoid any erroneous computation on my part, but the ECB is still lending at record levels, and if one is to look at the LTRO and MRO columns, things don’t add up. The ECB would have us believe that 1 in 7 banks require access to emergency funds at present, yet summation of the two aforementioned columns, would suggest that the figure is closer to 1 in 3, maybe even 1 in 2.
Dear me…
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
- #66
- Jun 30, 2010 12:14pm Jun 30, 2010 12:14pm
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Per Aspera Ad Astra | 6,262 Posts
Last post for today - I promise...
After carefully looking at the current 4hr, I have decided to close all shorts for now.
All my ducks on the charts are not in a row. I have 2 indications for short, and 2 indications for a temporary higher low forming on the 4hr ( to thus move back a higher first). So, better to step aside and wait. If we are meant to go down - which I have conviction in-at the moment, I will get that opportunity.
Will go and focus on the 30 min to see where the opportunity comes.
Have a great day
Regards
have a good evening
Stocky
From the Daily Telegraph: Royal Bank of Scotland strategist Andrew Roberts said he sensed a "Minsky moment" approaching - the point identified by economist Hyman Minsky when investors start to panic. "We are seeing a snowball effect of negative news," he said. "It's all rather messy out there. In the last few days there has been a tangible shift from complacency to a realisation that maybe things aren't looking all that good. This is almost identical to two years ago – complacency giving way to the abundant risks out here."
Tomorrow, banks...
- #72
- Jun 30, 2010 3:04pm Jun 30, 2010 3:04pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Technical fundamentalist | 2,202 Posts
Sir, it is a pleasure to submit, in addition to being helpful to myself by placing thoughts down. It may come as no surprise to learn that this old head can sometimes spin after a day of editorial.
Kudos to your charting, and the thread.
Ahem: old(er) one maybe, but now rocking it with Diamond Day and Eat ' em and smile. Yes, perhaps one should, being British, claim to be listening to an Elgar rendition by Jacqueline du Pré, but hey man, a guy gotta let it go sometimes.
Kudos to your charting, and the thread.
Ahem: old(er) one maybe, but now rocking it with Diamond Day and Eat ' em and smile. Yes, perhaps one should, being British, claim to be listening to an Elgar rendition by Jacqueline du Pré, but hey man, a guy gotta let it go sometimes.
Thanks for the time and effort in you posts today mate...always a pleasure reading your thoughts on market news and analysis
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
- #74
- Jun 30, 2010 9:14pm Jun 30, 2010 9:14pm
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Per Aspera Ad Astra | 6,262 Posts
- #75
- Jun 30, 2010 10:00pm Jun 30, 2010 10:00pm
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Per Aspera Ad Astra | 6,262 Posts
I use this spesific method to look at possible areas of trend change. This gives me "areas of interest" to consider. It usually gives me an indication of " weakness" in whatever direction we are moving in at the time. Let me explain:
I have marked the chart with numbers 1 through to 10. Please enduldge my rant:
1) trend moving up.
2) The blue area circled at the bottom in line with no.2 - tells me there is an attempt to change the longer term trend.
3) A brief failure / continuation on the initial direction.
4) Another attempt ( circled again) giving me blue. There is an attempt to again change the longer term trend.
5) Success - trend changed.
6) Blue gives me an indication that there is an attempt to change trend.
7) Success - trend changed
8) Another blue area - attempt to change trend.
9) Failed to do so - we continue
10) We are currenty in an area attempting a longer term change - from long to short in this instance.
This one will probably succeed, should certain conditions remain.
The second chart I also post to show you something else. Notice in these areas of possible change ( blue areas) - that we normally get a "V" formation in the PA.... interesting, isn't it?
If we get a "V" formation again ( high probability) - I may get my entry to short.
Oh- I also include the indicator, should you want to apply this as a guide. Maroon normally indicates long cycles in place and Green normally indicates short cycles in place. Red is balanced / chop - or opportunities in both directions possible. As with all indicators - there is lag - hope it may assist someone.
Stocky - if you see this post as non-relevant, let me know - I will remove then.
Regards
I have marked the chart with numbers 1 through to 10. Please enduldge my rant:
1) trend moving up.
2) The blue area circled at the bottom in line with no.2 - tells me there is an attempt to change the longer term trend.
3) A brief failure / continuation on the initial direction.
4) Another attempt ( circled again) giving me blue. There is an attempt to again change the longer term trend.
5) Success - trend changed.
6) Blue gives me an indication that there is an attempt to change trend.
7) Success - trend changed
8) Another blue area - attempt to change trend.
9) Failed to do so - we continue
10) We are currenty in an area attempting a longer term change - from long to short in this instance.
This one will probably succeed, should certain conditions remain.
The second chart I also post to show you something else. Notice in these areas of possible change ( blue areas) - that we normally get a "V" formation in the PA.... interesting, isn't it?
If we get a "V" formation again ( high probability) - I may get my entry to short.
Oh- I also include the indicator, should you want to apply this as a guide. Maroon normally indicates long cycles in place and Green normally indicates short cycles in place. Red is balanced / chop - or opportunities in both directions possible. As with all indicators - there is lag - hope it may assist someone.
Stocky - if you see this post as non-relevant, let me know - I will remove then.
Regards
- #76
- Jul 1, 2010 2:08am Jul 1, 2010 2:08am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Per Aspera Ad Astra | 6,262 Posts
Good day to you all,
Missed my initial entry back in on GU - was in bed - snoring away. Hope to get a better price a bit later. The GU chart shows me a couple of things...
1) This line was the projected path during the course of last week and into the current week.
2) Weakness crept in over the last 2 days, as PA moved away from the angle it was running along.
3) Latched onto a new angle downwards - with a projected area @ 1.4800 / 1.4810 for today - should the current cycle continue.
I believe the monthly open price @ 1.4941 above, to block...
Last post for a while, as I have to go out for a couple of hours. Took GU short when price briefly broke the 1.4941 level mentioned earlier. Also took another EU scalp.
I have closed all positions, as I will be out and not at the PC. Below my closed trades since yesterday. Took some silly shorts on GU from the daily a couple of days ago - so for a couple of days, I was nursing those....
So - only 11 trades entered for the last couple of days. 10 winners / 1 small loss. + 164 pips. Comment: Those gaps left a while ago on MT platform are getting closer.... NFP the catalyst?
Good luck for the rest of the day.
Regards
- #77
- Jul 1, 2010 2:32am Jul 1, 2010 2:32am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
I use this spesific method to look at possible areas of trend change. This gives me "areas of interest" to consider. It usually gives me an indication of " weakness" in whatever direction we are moving in at the time. Let me explain:
I have marked the chart with numbers 1 through to 10. Please enduldge my rant:
1) trend moving up.
2) The blue area circled at the bottom in line with no.2 - tells me there is an attempt to change the longer term trend.
3) A brief failure / continuation on the initial direction.
4) Another attempt ( circled...
"Hi Tau,
Thanks for sharing your charts and trading system. It is kind of you to share this indicator with rest of the members on the thread as I know alot of work has gone in behind developing it. You seem to have achieved steady results over the last 10 days so well done again. Hopefully others can use this indicator with the same discipline you do and achieve similar results.
Going onto GU like a few others I missed the sell off from 4950 also early this morning...Im currently waiting for UK PMI data and before the next setup. Looks like we are attempting a bounce of 4887, strong 4hrly support. This looks like a good area to attempt a 38.2 or 50% fib of the recent downmove from but with NFP’s tomorrow and alot data out today volatility is expected so anything can happen. Approaching 4950 again.
Stocky
- #79
- Jul 1, 2010 4:06am Jul 1, 2010 4:06am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 8,618 Posts
No problem mate...easy mistake if you havent referred to the weekly.
Stocky
As you know, I like to keep it simple, so I reckon it's a goer if we close this week under 1.49. Support = 1.4850 and 1.48. Next stop 1.42
Gone to a better place
