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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #41
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:03am Jun 30, 2010 5:03am
Possible short at 1.2297 in the Euro following ECBs announcement - 61.8% of the last swing down and S/R on several occasion over the past few weeks.
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  • #42
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:03am Jun 30, 2010 5:03am
Quoting Islander
GM Stocky - thanks for the invite, I'll drop in when I can - now that summer's here, I'm rather busy with boating matters......

Rather tight ranges over FO / LO at the moment - lets hope the ADP / NFP start another move

The Lower High on the 5m / 15m charts at todays DP / open level of 5064 gave a nice warning of the drop down to the support at yesterdays low /
S1 at 5010 where I exited as I have to go and put on my Captain's Hat!

I also had the POC since yesterdays US close at 5058.

So a few pips banked and I hope to get back for the...
Glad to see u here mate.....busy last hour there yep the lower open was a great hint that a break lower was on the cards...will be interesting to see if we can hold lower and continue this downmove....Market will be waiting for the US data now so im out at the moment.

Enjoy the boat....alright for some....ha

Stocky
  • #43
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:09am Jun 30, 2010 5:09am
Quoting medici
Possible short at 1.2297 in the Euro following ECBs announcement - 61.8% of the last swing down and S/R on several occasion over the past few weeks.
EU Single prints between 2297 and 2311 from the 28th June profile...looks like a good target before reversing.

Stocky
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  • #44
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:24am Jun 30, 2010 5:24am
Quoting Stocky Monk
EU Single prints between 2297 and 2311 from the 28th June profile...looks like a good target before reversing.

Stocky
So far so good
  • #45
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:31am Jun 30, 2010 5:31am
Looks like we have had a classic fakeout on GU following the price trap break. This is induced by the insitutional players to clear out weak shorts before heading lower. We have approached this weeks POC area around the 5070 region. Seems price is happy to trade around here at least until US data.

Stocky
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  • #46
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:40am Jun 30, 2010 5:40am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Looks like we have had a classic fakeout on GU following the price trap break. This is induced by the insitutional players to clear out weak shorts before heading lower. We have approached this weeks POC area around the 5070 region. Seems price is happy to trade around here at least until US data.

Stocky
Agreed. Support on the downside in the Euro at R1 1.2267, 38.2% of the move up - good target for the short. 1.5012 (yesterday's low) for cable.
  • #47
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:25am Jun 30, 2010 8:25am
Following this mornings fakeout to shake weak shorts price eventually head back out of the price trap.

If you missed the pivot sell like me then there was another great opportunity after the 11am GMT hourly candle formed a pinbar of the pivot. A short at the diagonal price trap support line made great entry. Of course it had to be held through the 1.15 US data but the trade was +20 pips by then.

We are approaching the bell distribution from the 25th now so price should slow down around here...POC from the 25th at 4944...(refer to MP chart posted this morning)....expect price to bounce around here. There is S1 and 4950 just before that also which should temporarily slow things.

Stocky
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  • #48
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:33am Jun 30, 2010 8:33am
Quoting medici
Agreed. Support on the downside in the Euro at R1 1.2267, 38.2% of the move up - good target for the short. 1.5012 (yesterday's low) for cable.
Thanks for the heads up on the EU trade..probably would of missed that while being engrossed in GU.....entered 1.23 after them SP's were hit and exited prematurely at 2267 prior to the US data....didn’t want to hold to two positions on 2 pairs through the data. still 33pips...cant complain

Stocky
  • #49
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:41am Jun 30, 2010 8:41am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Following this mornings fakeout to shake weak shorts price eventually head back out of the price trap.

If you missed the pivot sell like me then there was another great opportunity after the 11am GMT hourly candle formed a pinbar of the pivot. A short at the diagonal price trap support line made great entry. Of course it had to be held through the 1.15 US data but the trade was +20 pips by then.

We are approaching the bell distribution from the 25th now so price should slow down around here...POC from the 25th at 4944...(refer to MP chart...

Hi Stocky,

I wasn't posting much but I cleared my short taken at 1.5090 last night (I am in sydney so 24 hours back) today at 1.4985. I saw that H&S pattern and sold into strength.

I will be posting my charts, if you dont mind, here and hope to get some insight from an experienced trader.

cheers
  • #50
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:53am Jun 30, 2010 8:53am
Quoting trade price
gu and eu
Hi Tradeprice,

Love the simplicity of your analysis. I do keep an eye out for your posts when I get the chance and think they are great quality. Hope you suscribe and contiue to share your thoughts with the traders on this thread.

Kind Regards


Stocky
  • #51
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:59am Jun 30, 2010 8:59am
Quoting puks
Hi Stocky,

I wasn't posting much but I cleared my short taken at 1.5090 last night (I am in sydney so 24 hours back) today at 1.4985. I saw that H&S pattern and sold into strength.

I will be posting my charts, if you dont mind, here and hope to get some insight from an experienced trader.

cheers
Hi Puks,

Well done on your short trade...it was touch and go with that HnS at the 5080 zone but it finally materialised. So well done. Feel free to post your thoughts and analysis....

Stocky
  • #52
  • Jun 30, 2010 9:07am Jun 30, 2010 9:07am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi Puks,

Well done on your short trade...it was touch and go with that HnS at the 5080 zone but it finally materialised. So well done. Feel free to post your thoughts and analysis....

Stocky
Cheers mate. I was more confident after it failed to hold and close above 1.5130 level. But this has only covered 80% of my loss on previous short.

will post another charts soon.

cheers
  • #53
  • Jun 30, 2010 9:12am Jun 30, 2010 9:12am
Quoting puks
Cheers mate. I was more confident after it failed to hold and close above 1.5130 level. But this has only covered 80% of my loss on previous short.

will post another charts soon.

cheers
cool

Stocky
  • #54
  • Jun 30, 2010 9:48am Jun 30, 2010 9:48am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Following this mornings fakeout to shake weak shorts price eventually head back out of the price trap.

If you missed the pivot sell like me then there was another great opportunity after the 11am GMT hourly candle formed a pinbar of the pivot. A short at the diagonal price trap support line made great entry. Of course it had to be held through the 1.15 US data but the trade was +20 pips by then.

We are approaching the bell distribution from the 25th now so price should slow down around here...POC from the 25th at 4944...(refer to MP chart posted...
Hello Stocky,

Nice thread and analysis. I missed the HnS break down but just got entry after retracement.. Looking forward to your thread more and more.....

  • #55
  • Jun 30, 2010 9:50am Jun 30, 2010 9:50am
Quoting Stocky Monk
GU market profile for the day so far....Early bell distribution stage at the moment....few things to take note.

1. POCS for this week so far have been 5054, 5067, 5059. All in the same line pretty much confirming a strong top is developing and that 5075 zone is the line in the sand short zone.

2. Opening price on MP for the last 3 days is in a HnS format.

3. If we break lower today the are various single print areas dotted about so worth bearing in mind. Expect us to retrace or slow down at 4944 [b]fridays POC area if we get that far...

We are approaching fridays distribution and Point of Control at 4945...due to the distribution being quite smooth and curved we will probably trade 15-20pips past this point and then perform a bounce of some sort...will be interesting to see if this hourly remains below 4950.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=38

Stocky
  • #56
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:09am Jun 30, 2010 10:09am
Quoting Stocky Monk
We are approaching fridays distribution and Point of Control at 4945...due to the distribution being quite smooth and curved we will probably trade 15-20pips past this point and then perform a bounce of some sort...will be interesting to see if this hourly remains below 4950.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=38

Stocky
Price bounces from 4945 as expected....another chance to load on shorts here but I would be careful now going into London close as the profile has completed a 140 pip range today which is average for GU....We may continue to trade around here for a while now and fill in the lower distribution whcih just means sideways ranging... Unless NY want to take charge and continue selling this.

Stocky
  • #57
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:18am Jun 30, 2010 10:18am
Good day to you,

Well called - Stocky. Nice...

On Daily - I have a clear short cross. I will thus keep the shorts open. I also include the 1hr - we are possibly preparing for a retrace here - expecting an interim cross back up, for now. Will follow this to see if we can settle for a Lower High - this pervious high around the weekly open @ 1.5056.

We may pull back to yesterday's low @ 1.5010 - with Monday's low just sitting above that @ 1.5016. This may block and protect the short. Price has increased the decending angle past the projected close of 1.5018 - even if we head back to this cluster of the above mentioned numbers - we may find this to be a strong enough barrier to block.

Wish you all success

Regards
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  • #58
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:34am Jun 30, 2010 10:34am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

Well called - Stocky. Nice...

On Daily - I have a clear short cross. I will thus keep the shorts open. I also include the 1hr - we are possibly preparing for a retrace here - expecting an interim cross back up, for now. Will follow this to see if we can settle for a Lower High - this pervious high around the weekly open @ 1.5056.

We may pull back to yesterday's low @ 1.5010 - with Monday's low just sitting above that @ 1.5016. This may block and protect the short. Price has increased the decending angle past the projected...
Hi Tau,

Yep nice little bounce there for a cheeky few on a counter trade....With the last hourly closing above 4950 and the hourly 200ma sitting right at 4950 also I see this area holding for now....looks like a lower high is forming on the 5 min but PA can be deceptive around LND close....I've had my fair share from this lady for today so will take a break for a few hours and see what NY are up to later...we may spend a while completing the lower distribution as mention so for now im out of all positions and will re-assess entry if we get up to 1.50 again.

Hope you have a good end to the day.

Stocky
  • #59
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:51am Jun 30, 2010 10:51am
Quoting trade price
gu weekly.
Good day to you,

Thank you for your chart. Appreciate you taking the time.

Warm regards
  • #60
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:52am Jun 30, 2010 10:52am
Quoting trade price
gu weekly.
Slightly different charts but still looking at the same weekly key area and Sup/resistance levels..

Strong weekly res halting price...Technically we should be in for a decent down move from here.

Stocky
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