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  • #2,701
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:56pm Jun 29, 2010 12:56pm
lj,
trust you are watching these too for a daily play (long)
  • #2,702
  • Jun 29, 2010 1:15pm Jun 29, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting coolshades
lj,
trust you are watching these too for a daily play (long)
If we have a confirmed breakout then yeah I'll go long.

looking to get into any GBP pair at the moment and play its strong fundamentals while they last!
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  • #2,703
  • Jun 29, 2010 1:20pm Jun 29, 2010 1:20pm
i am more in favour of gcad because gnzd has an immediate resistance of 2.2

i am not sure of s/l yet, since this is new to me (trading trend line breaks and against long term trend)

Quoting lovejoy80
If we have a confirmed breakout then yeah I'll go long.

looking to get into any GBP pair at the moment and play its strong fundamentals while they last!
  • #2,704
  • Jun 29, 2010 1:25pm Jun 29, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting coolshades
i am more in favour of gcad because gnzd has an immediate resistance of 2.2

i am not sure of s/l yet, since this is new to me (trading trend line breaks and against long term trend)
Yeah I agree on G/NZD resistance but what I do like is the series of higher lows and higher highs.

Will you play a clean break. I'll probably (maybe) enter a small position no a clean break and then a proper position on retest. I don't know about SL but it will be at a level where I would feel that the reason for my trade entry has been invalidated. I'd look at the ATR too to get a feel for the likely daily range so to make sure that I wouldn't get stopped out by a mere daily spike etc.
  • #2,705
  • Jun 29, 2010 1:31pm Jun 29, 2010 1:31pm
i will firstly want the daily to close above 5900 (in gcad's case).

depending on how far away it closes from 5900, i will place a limit buy at say 5950.. if it closes just above 5900 by a few pips, i will buy at market, but very low lot size.

this is purely experimental for me. my daily closes in another 2.5 hous.

i am wanting to get back into cable but the danged thing isnt falling!

Quoting lovejoy80
Yeah I agree on G/NZD resistance but what I do like is the series of higher lows and higher highs.

Will you play a clean break. I'll probably (maybe) enter a small position no a clean break and then a proper position on retest. I don't know about SL but it will be at a level where I would feel that the reason for my trade entry has been invalidated. I'd look at the ATR too to get a feel for the likely daily range so to make sure that I wouldn't get stopped out by a mere daily spike etc.
  • #2,706
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:32pm Jun 29, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting coolshades
i will firstly want the daily to close above 5900 (in gcad's case).

depending on how far away it closes from 5900, i will place a limit buy at say 5950.. if it closes just above 5900 by a few pips, i will buy at market, but very low lot size.

this is purely experimental for me. my daily closes in another 2.5 hous.

i am wanting to get back into cable but the danged thing isnt falling!
Here are my relevant levels. Problem with GU is that we are near daily resistance level now but I would take a trade base don 4HR retrace to 1.5000
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  • #2,707
  • Jun 29, 2010 4:25pm Jun 29, 2010 4:25pm
well my gbpcad daily candle closed at 5898. so wait and watch tomorrow. will now look for closes on h4 candle above 5900.

Quoting lovejoy80
Here are my relevant levels. Problem with GU is that we are near daily resistance level now but I would take a trade base don 4HR retrace to 1.5000
  • #2,708
  • Jun 29, 2010 4:46pm Jun 29, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting coolshades
well my gbpcad daily candle closed at 5898. so wait and watch tomorrow. will now look for closes on h4 candle above 5900.
Yep same here
  • #2,709
  • Jun 29, 2010 5:28pm Jun 29, 2010 5:28pm
Neutro (or anyone who knows H&S patterns better than me - which is most!)...is this a valid pattern?

If so then 8366 on DJI if neckline breaks?
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  • #2,710
  • Jun 29, 2010 8:48pm Jun 29, 2010 8:48pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Neutro (or anyone who knows H&S patterns better than me - which is most!)...is this a valid pattern?

If so then 8366 on DJI if neckline breaks?

Looks like one to me. Doesn't look well for the Dow. August-October are even bad months at times.


Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,711
  • Jun 30, 2010 12:49am Jun 30, 2010 12:49am
Quoting lovejoy80
Neutro (or anyone who knows H&S patterns better than me - which is most!)...is this a valid pattern?

If so then 8366 on DJI if neckline breaks?
Well LJ, check this post out...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1995

Unfortunately, not only did I not profit from it, I lost a lot of %... Being tight and thinking it would rise to the pip of the left shoulder made me not get into the down movement...

And yes, if the neckline breaks, buckle up, because as I can see it, declines are violent.
  • #2,712
  • Jun 30, 2010 1:13am Jun 30, 2010 1:13am
Quoting neutro
Well LJ, check this post out...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1995

Unfortunately, not only did I not profit from it, I lost a lot of %... Being tight and thinking it would rise to the pip of the left shoulder made me not get into the down movement...

And yes, if the neckline breaks, buckle up, because as I can see it, declines are violent.

Yeah I remember the post now. Just stumbled across it when looking atDollar Index chart
  • #2,713
  • Jun 30, 2010 1:18am Jun 30, 2010 1:18am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yeah I remember the post now. Just stumbled across it when looking atDollar Index chart
did you manage to put different brokers in one platform?

need an update on USDX?

Here it is anyway

http://screencast.com/t/NTRkOThmNTQt
  • #2,714
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:05am Jun 30, 2010 2:05am
Quoting neutro
did you manage to put different brokers in one platform?

need an update on USDX?

Here it is anyway

http://screencast.com/t/NTRkOThmNTQt
Yeah I did thanks

We have similar charts
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  • #2,715
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:38am Jun 30, 2010 2:38am
I've realised how poor my trading has been recently over the last few days and some things I am dong wrong.

1. I am giving too much attention to future potential scenarios rather than trading what is happening at the moment. I'm giving too much weight to YM.

For example I was waiting for price to retrace down to the 61 fib area and PPz of 9970 before looking for longs on FX and didn't want to take shorts until then as were were so close to the PPZ.

The area didn't hold and we fell down to 9800 PPZ area where we are now bouncing, but my point is that in the meantime I missed a whole good trend down. I look at the daily chart from yesterday of AU or AJ and I ask myself why was my only trade on these pairs a long for 15 pips! I need to keep it simple and start trading waht I see i.e. trading the trend that I see.

2. I'm not distinguish between potential long term trades compared to short term trades and I'm too 'scared' to give price some room and let a trade play itself out.

An example of this was EU yesterday where I was always going to be a buyer @ 1.2155 area...I did but then cut it with some pof my other xxx/usd trades when I felt the bounce in YM had come to an end. I had a 20 pip SL on this and price is now heading up to the 1.2250 former support area .

My win rate has been around 60-65% i.e. same as it has always been but my average winner is so low and much less than my average winner and I don't think I've had a %R > 1 trade for a long time.

So going forward I want to get back to doing the following:

1. Trading what I see not a scenario that might happen in the future.
2. Don't over analyse things
3. Use YM for potential entry and target areas but trading what current FX price is telling me comes a big first
4. focus on taking a manageable number of trades and trade/manage them accordingly.
5. Create a profile with as many tradable daily charts as possible...I'm talking all FX, futures and CFD's that Fxpro has to offer - there are countless PA setups on the daily TF's occurring all the time which are easy money in the bank
  • #2,716
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:54am Jun 30, 2010 2:54am
Quoting lovejoy80
I've realised how poor my trading has been recently over the last few days and some things I am dong wrong.

1. I am giving too much attention to future potential scenarios rather than trading what is happening at the moment. I'm giving too much weight to YM.

For example I was waiting for price to retrace down to the 61 fib area and PPz of 9970 before looking for longs on FX and didn't want to take shorts until then as were were so close to the PPZ.

The area didn't hold and we fell down to 9800 PPZ area where we are now bouncing, but my point...
I like how you write your thoughts here, it's a big thing to do.

Ok, here's what I'm in since yesterday. EURCAD Long term play, I'm letting it SL or shooting for the moon. Targeting 1.3 then 1.35 and I'll add on a retrace of this daily BUOB (1.2780-1.2800).

Regarding the daily profile. With the VIX edging higher, longer term plays are a bit risky at the moment. Volatility is good for intraday trading, it hurts the longer term viewers since direction changes are frequent. (and still I'm in EC long term )
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  • #2,717
  • Jun 30, 2010 3:18am Jun 30, 2010 3:18am
Quoting lovejoy80
5. Create a profile with as many tradable daily charts as possible...I'm talking all FX, futures and CFD's that Fxpro has to offer - there are countless PA setups on the daily TF's occurring all the time which are easy money in the bank
Morning

Taking about daily set ups and exotic pairs.
Attached Image
  • #2,718
  • Jun 30, 2010 3:29am Jun 30, 2010 3:29am
Quoting neutro
I like how you write your thoughts here, it's a big thing to do.

Ok, here's what I'm in since yesterday. EURCAD Long term play, I'm letting it SL or shooting for the moon. Targeting 1.3 then 1.35 and I'll add on a retrace of this daily BUOB (1.2780-1.2800).

Regarding the daily profile. With the VIX edging higher, longer term plays are a bit risky at the moment. Volatility is good for intraday trading, it hurts the longer term viewers since direction changes are frequent. (and still I'm in EC long term )
Here is my ECAD chart.

On the 4HR we've definitely got a series of HH / HL...though it might now be making a LH. I'd consider an entry long on pullback to the TL / PPZ area if I were trading this pair. Watch the falling daily TL and fibs area though.

With regards the daily profile this will be purely price action trading i.e. J16 style rather than trend trading and I'll enter two positions for each trade one to exit at FTA (as long as not too close...probably wouldn't enter if too close anyway) and one to move to break even at FTA and either trail or move down on a break of each PPZ area. I'll probably use a trade manager to manage the initial take profit @ FTA and move SL other position to BE+1 part of the trade. Trading price action setups on the daily time frame you have a very high chance of price going to the FTA ...I'd say >95% so I will be risking around 4-5% per trade and it's a very easy way of keeping the account ticking over with very minimal effort (looking at each chart once a day!).

with trend trading you have to know in advance at what price does your view on the trend change and then it's a case of looking for entries on pullbacks / breaks of support (if in downtrend) until price tells you otherwise...it can test your nerve though as drawdowns can occur deeper retracements etc....it's all very easy when you get a currency tanking like EU has been but the test is when you get a retracement and you see the profit decreasing...not letting this affect your basic view on the trend is the challenge. For example in a downtrend and would not have taken any longs if trading only this method but on GU I now consider this to be in the start of an uptrend...how long the up trend will last...who knows but I know at what level I would consider it to be in a downtrend and also what I'd be looking for if it cannot establish a trend i.e. staying out as it's in consolidation.
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  • #2,719
  • Jun 30, 2010 9:17am Jun 30, 2010 9:17am
Somehow I managed to turn a runner into a loser. And this is the best trade of the day. Going up and down with GU all day, turning +2R winners into losers, was the worst thing I done in my trading career so far. I'm so disappointed with myself, I can't even tell you.

I'm going to take a break from trading, at least this week and put all my thoughts and rules and everything in order so that I can come back better.

Good luck with your endeavors LJ, we'll talk here some time in the future. You can reach me by mail, of course.
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  • #2,720
  • Jun 30, 2010 9:36am Jun 30, 2010 9:36am
Quoting neutro
Somehow I managed to turn a runner into a loser. And this is the best trade of the day. Going up and down with GU all day, turning +2R winners into losers, was the worst thing I done in my trading career so far. I'm so disappointed with myself, I can't even tell you.

I'm going to take a break from trading, at least this week and put all my thoughts and rules and everything in order so that I can come back better.

Good luck with your endeavors LJ, we'll talk here some time in the future. You can reach me by mail, of course.
I see that's EUr/AUd...can't quite seem reason for your entries?

Take a break to clear your head, write down some rules and decrease the risk per trade and then come back that's what I would do. As well as keeping it basic and taking only the good setups that meet your criteria. I'm focused on taking only the really nice setups for the time being until the account starts growing again and my mindset changes into one where I'm winning and confident.
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