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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #228,461
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:37pm Jun 29, 2010 2:37pm
If -300 in the dow can't push this south, nothing can, imho we are going north.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #228,462
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:43pm Jun 29, 2010 2:43pm
I was expecting a really bad GDP number out of the UK for the perfect place to short the GBP after its overdone run up against the USD and JPY. Now it looks like this week wont have as much defining movement as I had previously hoped with earnings season around the corner and all. Everyone is already expecting a heinous NFP report and currencies barely moving with the DOW getting hammered. That was going to be the impetus for renewed lack of confidence in the UK and European nations. lol is it bad that I'm expecting to make alot of money on shorting currencies with sovereign debt issues?
  • #228,463
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:46pm Jun 29, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting USD-Bear
If -300 in the dow can't push this south, nothing can, imho we are going north.....
i cant agree more...
  • #228,464
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:50pm Jun 29, 2010 2:50pm
Yup... that's what I was saying before. As hard as equities are getting hit we still can't break the range (see my last posted chart) where 133 is about the bottom end of it.

Kinda pathetic. I'd be pissed if I were short.


Quoting USD-Bear
If -300 in the dow can't push this south, nothing can, imho we are going north.....
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #228,465
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:51pm Jun 29, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting USD-Bear
If -300 in the dow can't push this south, nothing can, imho we are going north.....
A valid view, but then again, it has travelled 230 pips on the day, approx half of it during FTSE's very down day, and the remainder during NY time, surpassing it's average daily pip movement. There's relative sterling strength at play too as well (which I don't expect to last) which is changing GY's PA behaviour to be slower and more drawn out, as is UJ declining in a more controlled way - IMO there's a variety of news events that will be the catalyst to send the sterlings down, similar to the euro. I realize all that may not say much, other than the pairs behave differently based on many circumstances, and it's the job of the big boys to dupe us as much as they can.
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  • #228,466
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:51pm Jun 29, 2010 2:51pm
sell at the retrace we are going to tank! We had 5 complete waves down which signals a reversal, we are now in wave 3 retracement up at the end of this retracement we will be going into wave 3 down big impulsive wave 3 dont mis out!
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  • #228,467
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:59pm Jun 29, 2010 2:59pm
well well, no more downside for now. alright, let's see if it can rally back to 134.70.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #228,468
  • Jun 29, 2010 3:01pm Jun 29, 2010 3:01pm
Quoting Beljevina
A valid view, but then again, it has travelled 230 pips on the day, approx half of it during FTSE's very down day, and the remainder during NY time, surpassing it's average daily pip movement. There's relative sterling strength at play too as well (which I don't expect to last) which is changing GY's PA behaviour to be slower and more drawn out, as is UJ declining in a more controlled way - IMO there's a variety of news events that will be the catalyst to send the sterlings down, similar to the euro. I realize all that may not say much, other than...
Agreed that news could change things, but weakness of GY today is for 100% caused by UJ and not previous weakness in FTSE's (look at GU).
So G has intrensic strength and if I look at my charts this strength is very young and certainly not maturing.
That leaves us to my view that UJ being near major resistance and possible interventions could be nearby, that risks/chances south are imo far lesser then north.
Its just my view and I certainly experienced that I can be deadly wrong
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #228,469
  • Jun 29, 2010 3:07pm Jun 29, 2010 3:07pm
I don't know the average daily pip movement for G/J... I don't really care about it, but if that's your argument shouldn't you consider this is a much larger daily average move for the DOW and therefore we should have seen much more movement in G/J?

Just saying, I'd expect some actual follow through and at the very minimum a solid break of 133.00 to set up for a retest of that level to confirm we're resuming the downtrend. It didn't happen not even with such a weak day in equities.

Just sayin'...



Quoting Beljevina
A valid view, but then again, it has travelled 230 pips on the day, approx half of it during FTSE's very down day, and the remainder during NY time, surpassing it's average daily pip movement. There's relative sterling strength at play too as well (which I don't expect to last) which is changing GY's PA behaviour to be slower and more drawn out, as is UJ declining in a more controlled way - IMO there's a variety of news events that will be the catalyst to send the sterlings down, similar to the euro. I realize all that may not say much, other...
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #228,470
  • Jun 29, 2010 3:42pm Jun 29, 2010 3:42pm
Quoting Geppy
I don't know the average daily pip movement for G/J... I don't really care about it, but if that's your argument shouldn't you consider this is a much larger daily average move for the DOW and therefore we should have seen much more movement in G/J?
Quoting USD-Bear
Agreed that news could change things, but weakness of GY today is for 100% caused by UJ and not previous weakness in FTSE's (look at GU).
So G has intrensic strength and if I look at my charts this strength is very young and certainly not maturing.
Good points and good facts, but I guess our conclusions are different. GY's had seeming strength handed to it and been moving 100 pips a day. All the movements have been rather lethargic, with an attempt to create buyers IMO, but with very defined ceilings not easily broken, and rather quickly rejected. Sure, the interest hasn't been there and hence a drop to test for demand. IMO, they're not creating it.

With ~120 pips recent daily GY movement, today's 230 today is quite large, beyond it's recent norms. Of course it doesn't necessarily mean anything, but I find it's behaviour is gradually changing. I think we're seeing distribution. Re UJ, I was a baby bull if 89 held, but it gave like a house of cards. 88.2/88 is important support - if that goes, the floor could give, once 87.2 & 85.9 fail. Remember ADP is tomorrow. Chartwise, S&P aren't looking good IMO, so even an unexpected trip up to 137 won't last. But as I tend to say, it's tomorrow that will tell us more.

For short term, I gotta believe NFP is going to be bad. If so, the yen pairs will get screwed. Throw in some other inevitable bad news, and 129 could be visited.
  • #228,471
  • Jun 29, 2010 3:47pm Jun 29, 2010 3:47pm

Tuesday, June 29, 2010 13:47:27
NHC: Tropicla storm Alex expected to become hurricane in the next several hours; storm still moving NW at 13 mph
- Max Wind Speed: 70 mph
- Min Pressure: 981mb
- Still moving NW at 13 mph toward Mexico-Texas border.

  • #228,472
  • Jun 29, 2010 3:54pm Jun 29, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting Beljevina
Good points and good facts, but I guess our conclusions are different. GY's had seeming strength handed to it and been moving 100 pips a day. All the movements have been rather lethargic, with an attempt to create buyers IMO, but with very defined ceilings not easily broken, and rather quickly rejected. Sure, the interest hasn't been there and hence a drop to test for demand. IMO, they're not creating it.

With ~120 pips recent daily GY movement, today's 230 today is quite large, beyond it's recent norms. Of course it doesn't necessarily mean anything,...
Thanks for your ever valueble input, still think something major is developing around G, USA still think QE is the way, GB has seen the light abolishing QE which imo will lead to further GU-strength even during bad economic figures....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #228,473
  • Jun 29, 2010 4:23pm Jun 29, 2010 4:23pm
Well i see downtrend continuation on gu
first step should be weekly pivot 1.4940 then test of 1.5 if hold and we will see strong pressure with shooting stars at that level next step is 1.47 monthly pivot.

just the speculation lets wait and see
  • #228,474
  • Jun 29, 2010 4:45pm Jun 29, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting 5ysfx
Well i see downtrend continuation on gu
first step should be weekly pivot 1.4940 then test of 1.5 if hold and we will see strong pressure with shooting stars at that level next step is 1.47 monthly pivot.

just the speculation lets wait and see
Party-breaker!
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #228,475
  • Edited 5:09pm Jun 29, 2010 5:06pm | Edited 5:09pm
well, I see a nice dimond formation on H1, along with divergence in both MCAD and RSI. If 133.6 is taken it going to revisit the 135 mark. IMHO.

edit: Another point is 200SMA on H4 is still intact.
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  • #228,476
  • Jun 29, 2010 5:08pm Jun 29, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Party-breaker!

bang bang and GBP gonna get killed here, imho i prefer red scenario
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  • #228,477
  • Jun 29, 2010 5:10pm Jun 29, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting Beljevina

For short term, I gotta believe NFP is going to be bad. If so, the yen pairs will get screwed. Throw in some other inevitable bad news, and 129 could be visited.
BTW, words like "gotta", "going to", "will get", "inevitable" sounds like that's in the price....
Sorry, just teasing......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #228,478
  • Jun 29, 2010 6:33pm Jun 29, 2010 6:33pm
Just be careful guys. Even though Cable doesn't have much headroom, the speed in which the UJ is collapsing as well as the fact that the Dow formed an extremely high volume wide range doji in the last hour is giving me pause.
  • #228,479
  • Jun 29, 2010 8:20pm Jun 29, 2010 8:20pm
I'm trying a new reverse levels that seem to work, I will be watching the PA from these levels, ..
132.50 my safe buy area , what below will be retraced if we dont have direct long from there.
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  • #228,480
  • Jun 29, 2010 8:29pm Jun 29, 2010 8:29pm
Quoting Eulogy
Just be careful guys. Even though Cable doesn't have much headroom, the speed in which the UJ is collapsing as well as the fact that the Dow formed an extremely high volume wide range doji in the last hour is giving me pause.
I am not sure what to make of this EJ has fallen 230 pips, AJ 300 pips and GJ only 200 pips.

Reckon the doji was formed as S&P500 could not close below 1440.
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