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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #21
  • Jun 29, 2010 5:07am Jun 29, 2010 5:07am
Thanks Stocky that is much better. I must be thick, or something? Now it looks right and a retest of that level currently happening as you point out. You know, I don't do cable much. that's my excuse.
Gone to a better place
  • #22
  • Jun 29, 2010 5:10am Jun 29, 2010 5:10am
Quoting perstoman
Hello Stocky!
I've been following your analysis from DT's thread!
It's great that you've began your own thread!! Thank you for doing so!

Going to my point,
On 30min chart, do you see a possible H&S forming?
I would love to see this right shoulder to rise up to 1.507ish area to short there.
What does your profiling method tell you about this area?

Again thank you for starting your own thread!!
Thanks for joining the thread...hope you find it useful...

30 min is definately showing signs of a larger HnS pattern in the making...obviously until the right shoulder is complete it is not valid but something to definately keep an eye on. I come back to this current level we are at...I think we are in the making of a strong retrace of the overall intraday up move.... 15 min already shows a HnS at the weekly TL and 30 min could also be developing a bigger HnS pattern.

Stocky
  • #23
  • Jun 29, 2010 5:11am Jun 29, 2010 5:11am
Quoting smikester
Thanks Stocky that is much better. I must be thick, or something? Now it looks right and a retest of that level currently happening as you point out. You know, I don't do cable much. that's my excuse.
No problem mate...easy mistake if you havent referred to the weekly.

Stocky
  • #24
  • Edited 6:00am Jun 29, 2010 5:29am | Edited 6:00am
Quoting perstoman

I'to see this right shoulder to rise up to 1.507ish area to short there.
What does your profiling method tell you about this area?

Again thank you for starting your own thread!!
If the right shoulder forms in a similar place to the left should we would be looking for a lower high to form around 5070 / 5090 area. Looking at the profile you can see the top of yesterdays lower distribution ends at 5070 and the is also a profile ledge at 5094...these 2 fact make it probable we get that right shoulder forming...lower distribution from yesterday slows price up to 5070/80 and then price reverses at the ledge??? good possibility

Stocky
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  • #25
  • Jun 29, 2010 5:43am Jun 29, 2010 5:43am
5012 has provided a nice 60 pip bounce upto the daily pivot. even if you bought the close of the last hourly pinbar that was 30 pips upto 5076.
I have closed buy order from 5017 here for 58pips as we could begin to form the right shoulder now on the 30 min TF. Also profile ledge at 5094 and yesterdays lower distribution range top at 5070.

Will wait now either for this HnS pattern to form and sell either the top of the right shoulder if i want to be aggressive considering we have the daily pivot at 5084 and the profile ledge at 5094 to place stop behind or play it safe and wait for the neckline to break lower (5012) before entering. Will re-assess as we go.

Stocky
  • #26
  • Jun 29, 2010 10:11am Jun 29, 2010 10:11am
Good day to you all,

Glad to see you have started this - Stocky. Thank you for the invite. I am subscribing.

On the GU 1hr - we are in an area of weakness right now suggesting to look for sell opportunity.Waiting for spesific confirmation - as it is still early days. This may still take a while. We are only JUST trading below the weekly open @ 1.5057 at times.

If I have it right, the next hour of 2 should be the last attempts to drive price higher and then we may see some more serious selling happening. Will update later.

Just the way I see it.

Regards
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  • #27
  • Jun 29, 2010 10:44am Jun 29, 2010 10:44am
My chart. Mainly looking at levels.

It's also nice to see everyone's posts.
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  • #28
  • Jun 29, 2010 11:41am Jun 29, 2010 11:41am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you all,

Glad to see you have started this - Stocky. Thank you for the invite. I am subscribing.

On the GU 1hr - we are in an area of weakness right now suggesting to look for sell opportunity.Waiting for spesific confirmation - as it is still early days. This may still take a while. We are only JUST trading below the weekly open @ 1.5057 at times.

If I have it right, the next hour of 2 should be the last attempts to drive price higher and then we may see some more serious selling happening. Will update later.

Just the way I...
Hi Tau,

Glad to see you mate....I agree we are forming a top at the moment. Possible HnS pattern forming on the hourly and 30 min. Will expect plenty of chop around here for the next few hours....I expect this will fall quickly when it does...possibly even through asia...Im keeping a close eye on the sidelines at them moment

Stocky
  • #29
  • Jun 29, 2010 11:42am Jun 29, 2010 11:42am
Quoting calderone
My chart. Mainly looking at levels.

It's also nice to see everyone's posts.
Hi Calderone,

good to see your post mate....

Stocky
  • #30
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:31pm Jun 29, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi Tau,

Glad to see you mate....I agree we are forming a top at the moment. Possible HnS pattern forming on the hourly and 30 min. Will expect plenty of chop around here for the next few hours....I expect this will fall quickly when it does...possibly even through asia...Im keeping a close eye on the sidelines at them moment

Stocky
Good day to you all,

Let's see what the next few hours bring.... Herewith another view. Daily and 4H - possible divergence on both?

See soon

Regards
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  • #31
  • Jun 29, 2010 12:39pm Jun 29, 2010 12:39pm
everyhting was tanking but cable....hmmm....
  • #32
  • Jun 29, 2010 1:05pm Jun 29, 2010 1:05pm
Hourly price trap develping.....a break to the downside out this would be a good sign a down move is to begin...alternatively wait for a break below 5012 the neckline for the HnS pattern.

RSI showing bearish divergence on 4hr as Tau has pointed out.

Stocky
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  • #33
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:24pm Jun 29, 2010 2:24pm
“The euro is a victim of its own success”, so says Herman Van Rompuy today. For those not familiar with my previous diatribe against this weasel, Hermin the Vermin is what I consider the quintessential federalistic Eurocrat. Hey, Vermy boy, you mean like Madoff? Dude, do us all a favour and just spill the beans; You want to protect you master’s (Merk the berk) promise to your homeland banks that they will get back the money loaned to the PIGS.

Other editorial today was speculating upon a two-tier Europe/Euro. Hmm, are we talking rich and poor, master and servant… Aryan and non? How can one possibly run a federation with two currencies, for crying out load! One can already see that without equality and continuity within EuroLand, a single currency cannot cope. Unless, of course, the free-loaders in Brussels recognize that in order to keep the dream alive – at least until retirement and gold-plated pension - another system of bureaucracy is introduced.

I still intend to run that sweepstakes for a Euro V2 to be put into place 01.01.11 – an ominous date, with an ominous title – oh the fun I would have if it really came to pass that it was named V2.

Charts are S&P this evening, as this, I feel, will be critical for movement of Geppy. The Euro, too, but I am mindful of recent events concerning the ECB liquidity flow, and also Greek bond issues this week – hmm, doesn’t look like it is going too well. NFP is expected to be a little rocker, too. Reading lots of comment about an equity dive until November... perhaps previous speculation will be proved correct.

Anyway, before moving to the charts, and considering the moves today on the indices, I thought this quote by Mark Twain was rather apt. “October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February. “
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #34
  • Jun 29, 2010 3:08pm Jun 29, 2010 3:08pm
Many thanks to Stocky for excellent initiative. Here's my debut post.

Decent sized buy orders were triggered at the pivotal 1.2151 level this afternoon. With NFP on Friday this may be a bit too early in the week, for two reasons:

1. With those buy orders taken out, there's less support to the downside in the case of another dip.

2. Those filled at 1.2151 are likely to have their stops not too far below that level. These stops are not unlikely to be targeted before the week is over.

One possible scenario is that those stops get targeted following the release of employment data Friday. If that happens, it doesn't necessarily mean that the Euro correction is over:

There's a Bat pattern forming with potential reversal zone between 1.2074 (127.2% expansion of AB) and 1.1966 (88.6% retracement of XA). So a dip towards those levels post the NFP release could be a good opportunity to get in on the next leg of the Euro correction - perhaps towards 1.30-31.
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  • #35
  • Jun 29, 2010 5:12pm Jun 29, 2010 5:12pm
Possible 'line-in-the-sand' short set-up at 1.5075 for the European open tomorrow.

For this pattern, see also

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1772

and

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1750
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  • #36
  • Jun 29, 2010 9:54pm Jun 29, 2010 9:54pm
Good day to you,

The only thing that is clear, is that it's not.

The previous attempt to reverse direction to the short side, as posted earlier, is off the table for now - again. The 30 min chart, for me, suggests that we may again push a bit higher in the short term.

I will thus not enter any shorts for now, until the scenario changes.

Regards
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  • #37
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:04am Jun 30, 2010 2:04am
Morning guys,

Good analysis Medici, Tau and 45condor,

I agree with you guys that it is unclear at the moment and 5075 is possibly the 'line in the land' short setup zone.

As per my last post yesterday I highlighted a price trap developing and suggested a break to the downside through Asia maybe the beginning of a strong downmove....Based on this I decided to short yesterday evening at 5079 below the daily pivot with stops in the 5120 area. This short was triggered just prior to the break from the triangle which is not a great idea but I was fairly confident 5075 zone was a good setup as we seem to have formed a top and HnS pattern. The brake of the price trap did follow a downmove but it was slow and real hard work. I have decided to exit at 5037 for 42pips. We seem to have found new diagonal support hence the exit. With NFP's on Friday we may chop around this area till Friday now...will be interesting to see what todays data can provide. Next setup I am looking for is a break below the highlight diagonal support.

Stocky
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  • #38
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:40am Jun 30, 2010 2:40am
GU market profile for the day so far....Early bell distribution stage at the moment....few things to take note.

1. POCS for this week so far have been 5054, 5067, 5059. All in the same line pretty much confirming a strong top is developing and that 5075 zone is the line in the sand short zone.

2. Opening price on MP for the last 3 days is in a HnS format.

3. If we break lower today the are various single print areas dotted about so worth bearing in mind. Expect us to retrace or slow down at 4944 fridays POC area if we get that far down.

Stocky
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  • #39
  • Jun 30, 2010 3:55am Jun 30, 2010 3:55am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Morning guys,

Good analysis Medici, Tau and 45condor,

I agree with you guys that it is unclear at the moment and 5075 is possibly the 'line in the land' short setup zone.

[color=black][font=Verdana]As per my last post yesterday I highlighted a price trap developing and suggested a break to the downside through Asia maybe the beginning of a strong downmove....Based on this I decided to short yesterday evening at 5079...
New diagonal support mentioned in previous post has broken to the downside.
  • #40
  • Jun 30, 2010 4:00am Jun 30, 2010 4:00am
GM Stocky - thanks for the invite, I'll drop in when I can - now that summer's here, I'm rather busy with boating matters......

Rather tight ranges over FO / LO at the moment - lets hope the ADP / NFP start another move

The Lower High on the 5m / 15m charts at todays DP / open level of 5064 gave a nice warning of the drop down to the support at yesterdays low /
S1 at 5010 where I exited as I have to go and put on my Captain's Hat!

I also had the POC since yesterdays US close at 5058.

So a few pips banked and I hope to get back for the ADP.....good luck to you all.....
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