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Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #4,161
  • Jun 24, 2010 2:29pm Jun 24, 2010 2:29pm
Hi Jay,

Yes you're right - no Sunday candle is used although I'm surprised there is a difference as much as 28 pips between different brokers.

I guess its the difference in time for daily close on different brokers but even so, that is quite high, considering the 'add ons' employ just a 50 pip stop initially.

However, there will be times in a trend when one broker's sma will pick up an add-on and another won't & vice versa so I guess it all comes out in the wash lol.

Cheers
Steve
Quoting Gandolf
Hey, Steve.

I have a comparison of MA results below for EU on 21st June close.

Daily 50 SMA:
1.26398 Steve
1.26650 Jay's without Sunday data (28 pips higher)
1.25060 Jay's including Sunday data (134 pips lower)

Daily 50 EMA:
1.25865 Steve
1.26100 Jay's without Sunday data (24 pips higher)
1.25130 Jay's including Sunday data (74 pips lower)

Your charts don't have a Sunday candle... right?

In your opinion, how significant is +/-25 pips on the moving averages?

Would it be true to say that the majority of folks that would emulate your...
  • #4,162
  • Jun 24, 2010 2:50pm Jun 24, 2010 2:50pm
Hi again generalz! - good to see you here again

OK, the daily 50sma/ema method has produced the following results since December '09.

Please note that I haven't employed the extra 'add-on' method which would have more than quadrupled the results. The 'add-on' method also helps out when we encounter ranging periods or reversals....

Dec '09 +5.80%
Jan '10 +15.64%
Feb '10 +8.88%
Mar '10 +5.15%
Apr '10 -7.796%
May '10 +40.716%
Jun '10 as at writing -1% thereabouts

This is all I trade now due to work commitments and luckily have caught a beauty of a trend.

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting generalz
Steve,

I am a long time fan, great thread!

I am interested in the 50sma method. I put this together. You sometimes refer to it as Daily method but I know you use another method and am not sure if they are combined. could you clarify....

Dec. +5.90%
jan +5.64%
feb +8.8%
Mar +5.15%
Apr - 7.796%
May +40.716%
jun ?


If this represents combined methods. I was wondering when you end the month could you show us a YTD % increase or decrease of you account for each method. I am interested in the YTD 50sma %.

thanks
generalz
  • #4,163
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:02am Jun 28, 2010 8:02am
Hello Steve,
Sorry if I am a little thick headed here.But you say you lock in your add ons everyday by moving your 50 pip sl above or below the 50 ema or sma,whichever activated the trade.My question is how does this differ from the position being closed when price closes above or below the ma's?How are you locking in profit with this?Sorry again if this is really obvious and I am not seeing it.Keep up the good work here Steve, always interesting to read your posts.Thanks again ...Josh
  • #4,164
  • Jun 28, 2010 5:46pm Jun 28, 2010 5:46pm
Hi Josh,

Not at all - in fact just had a pm from another member asking for clarification so I'll try and do that here.

Effectively I have 2 methods employed on the daily, the first of which is always in the market. The second, add-on method is employed from time to time as certain levels are tested.

Method 1 - always in the market

OK, so method 1 has 2 positions on at the opening price of the month. If the price is below both 50ema & sma then they are both short, vice versa if long.

No stop loss is employed, however if a daily bar closes the other side of the 50sma that position is closed at either profit or loss. A replacement position is immediately opened (in this case long).

If that daily bar also closes the other side of the 50ema that position is also closed at either profit or loss & replacement position opened.

It may be that for a few days I have one short & one long if we don't clear both sma & ema the same day.

If (as in May & probably June) neither close above the sma/ema for the whole month then positions are closed at month end for profit or loss and re-opened immediately, being the new month positions.

This is only a personal preference - I like to bank a profit or loss at the end of each month but there's no reason not to just keep the positions open until the sma or ema are pierced on a daily close.

Method 2 - Add-ons

At the end of each day I'll set 2 limit orders. One is 10 pips below (for short) the daily 50sma & one 10 pips below the 50ema. Each position employs a 50 pip stop loss initially.

Each day the orders are modified as the ma's change and it may be weeks until one or both are activated.

Now, say one or both are activated and it 'bounces' off the ma's that day then the position(s) are still on. Each day new limit orders are again set but also each day the stop losses on the active add-ons are reduced according to where the ma is at the end of each day.

This is what I mean by 'locking in profit' on these active positions. The add-ons are not closed at month end - they are only closed when the market stops them out.

Let's take an example of this - unfortunately I hadn't realised the potential of add-ons at this stage so haven't benefitted yet.

On the ema add-ons I'd have had the first one activated on 8th December around the 1.4828 level. Further ones would've been added on 13th Jan at around 1.4572, 3 more on 12th, 14th & 15th April all around 1.3650 area.

All these positions would still be on and my current ema is standing at 1.2536 so stop loss on these 6 positions would currently be 1.2586.

The sma positions were stopped out at 1.3650 levels but even so you can see the power of this as long as you have the guts to stay in, locking in maybe 20,30 pips a day.

If I'd realised the power of this we'd have 6 active add-ons with a total of 7420 pips locked in over 6 active positions! Each add-on I use a 2% stop loss (50 pips) - now that's what's called taking advantage of a trend!

On EU, most years you get a move over a few months - you just have to be patient to take a few losing/break even months until you get the move.

Hope this clarifies things?

Kind Regards
Steve

Each day
Quoting jlmac27
Hello Steve,
Sorry if I am a little thick headed here.But you say you lock in your add ons everyday by moving your 50 pip sl above or below the 50 ema or sma,whichever activated the trade.My question is how does this differ from the position being closed when price closes above or below the ma's?How are you locking in profit with this?Sorry again if this is really obvious and I am not seeing it.Keep up the good work here Steve, always interesting to read your posts.Thanks again ...Josh
  • #4,165
  • Jun 29, 2010 6:08pm Jun 29, 2010 6:08pm
Thanks steve,
Yeah this helps quite as bit.I went back and was just skimming through the daily charts for the past 10 years and there are a couple periods when price seemed to whipsaw you none stop for few months at a time.But it seems over the long run it is profitable.Love reading your journal Steve, keep it up and thanks for the reply!...Josh
  • #4,166
  • Edited Jun 30, 2010 12:11am Jun 29, 2010 7:02pm | Edited Jun 30, 2010 12:11am
Thank you for posting your rules, I see they are similar to what I have been doing.

How much leverage are you using per position Steve?
Since you don't use a SL there are times when your exit is quite a distance away.
Or do you have an emergency SL?
  • #4,167
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:12pm Jun 30, 2010 5:12pm
Yes you're right Josh, the whipsaw around the ma's can be a pain but you just have to keep the faith that a trend will once again develop.
Quoting jlmac27
Thanks steve,
Yeah this helps quite as bit.I went back and was just skimming through the daily charts for the past 10 years and there are a couple periods when price seemed to whipsaw you none stop for few months at a time.But it seems over the long run it is profitable.Love reading your journal Steve, keep it up and thanks for the reply!...Josh
  • #4,168
  • Edited 5:32pm Jun 30, 2010 5:16pm | Edited 5:32pm
I use an initial stop loss of 50 pips on the add-ons, which equates to 1%.

On the main method each position size equates to 1% for each 50 pips - stop loss is not used but position is closed on daily close the other side of the ma.

That's my choice and maybe too aggressive for some - it's up to the trader what he or she can stomach.
Quoting tradestar1
Thank you for posting your rules, I see they are similar to what I have been doing.

How much leverage are you using per position Steve?
Since you don't use a SL there are times when your exit is quite a distance away.
Or do you have an emergency SL?
  • #4,169
  • Edited 5:30pm Jun 30, 2010 5:19pm | Edited 5:30pm
OK, the two positions on the main method were closed at 1.22346 & 1.22321, equating to a 2.846% gain in June.

New positions were immediately opened at 1.22291 with additional limit orders on at 1.25000 & 1.24621.

Let's see what July brings....

Steve
  • #4,170
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:42pm Jun 30, 2010 5:42pm
Hey, Steve... great work! Again, thanks for sharing with us all.

Jay

Quoting steviet
OK, the two positions on the main method were closed at 1.22346 & 1.22321, equating to a 2.846% gain in June.

New positions were immediately opened at 1.22291 with additional limit orders on at 1.25000 & 1.24621.

Let's see what July brings....

Steve
  • #4,171
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:54pm Jun 30, 2010 5:54pm
No worries Jay

How are things with you my friend?
Quoting Gandolf
Hey, Steve... great work! Again, thanks for sharing with us all.

Jay
  • #4,172
  • Jun 30, 2010 6:45pm Jun 30, 2010 6:45pm
Good stuff Steve.

Quoting steviet
OK, the two positions on the main method were closed at 1.22346 & 1.22321, equating to a 2.846% gain in June.

New positions were immediately opened at 1.22291 with additional limit orders on at 1.25000 & 1.24621.

Let's see what July brings....

Steve
  • #4,173
  • Jul 1, 2010 6:50am Jul 1, 2010 6:50am
Hey, bud. Well things were ok in June. Ah... i see you found my results. Much more relaxed now. Love your method.

New avatar... you playing cricket?

Quoting steviet
No worries Jay

How are things with you my friend?
  • #4,174
  • Jul 2, 2010 3:07pm Jul 2, 2010 3:07pm
See you again here at the end of the month Sam - have a good one
Quoting sam0182
Good stuff Steve.
  • #4,175
  • Jul 2, 2010 3:10pm Jul 2, 2010 3:10pm
Ouch, shocking start to July but a long way to go yet - must remember I've had a pretty good run for the best part of 7 months & there are always bumps in the road.

Yup, that's me from a few weeks ago
Quoting Gandolf
Hey, bud. Well things were ok in June. Ah... i see you found my results. Much more relaxed now. Love your method.

New avatar... you playing cricket?
  • #4,176
  • Jul 4, 2010 5:57am Jul 4, 2010 5:57am
Hi Steviet,

Could you post a chart with examples when you enter, exit and the trailingstop.
It would be very helpfull for a lot of traders.

thanks Willem
  • #4,177
  • Jul 4, 2010 8:04am Jul 4, 2010 8:04am
OK, here is the chart I use on EU daily for my entries - sorry about the quality but I've forgotten how to crop an image in paint so it's as good as it's going to get. (Edit, actually looks OK if you click on it )

The white line is daily 50ema, the yellow daily 50sma.

When I first started using the method in November 09, I was using just the 50sma with no add-on method. It's only since April that I've added the 50ema and split positions.

However, once one of these add-ons has been activated and not been stopped out in a day or two, the stop loss would be 50 pips the other side of the line. Each day the stop on the add-on(s) is tightened and once this is in profit you are locking in daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurdaily.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #4,178
  • Jul 4, 2010 12:31pm Jul 4, 2010 12:31pm
thanks for the chart Steve.

It can be an interesting week for the eur/usd.
is it a rebound of is he falling further down this week.

Willem
  • #4,179
  • Jul 4, 2010 1:10pm Jul 4, 2010 1:10pm
Indeed it will Willem...

I currently have a long from Friday open at 1.25191 after price closed above 50sma on Thursday.

Will open a further long at Sunday open as price closed above 50ema Friday.

Add-on orders will be around 1.2460 (sma) and 1.2533 (ema) so chances are one or both will be activated sometime during Sunday/Monday. The sma add-on was at 1.24702 on Friday but we only made it down to 1.2480 area.

I'd obviously prefer a further rally before this thing turns but who knows? All I can do is run with the methods and let the market do it's thing.

Whilst we are around the 50sma/ema it's potentially the most dangerous time, however, if I can pick up a few positions and then it runs it's also potentially the most profitable too.

Let's see how it pans out.....

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting dutchsignals
thanks for the chart Steve.

It can be an interesting week for the eur/usd.
is it a rebound of is he falling further down this week.

Willem
  • #4,180
  • Jul 9, 2010 11:32am Jul 9, 2010 11:32am
Thought you might be interested in this.
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