FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

5 out of 6 of the DailyFX Plus Trading Signals are pointing towards short positions.

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/1940/usdcadsignals.png

Range 2, Momentum 1 and Momentum 2 are giving instructions not to enter now, but Breakout 2 and Breakout 1 have green lights. The 1.02 may be tough to break, but below that could see a test of parity again. Here are the support levels Jamie Saettele is looking at:

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-...1727798561.gif

Read More: http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/elliott_wave/

Platform Update:

Mobile Trading Station II: A new version of the Mobile Trading Station II was released today for iPhone and Windows Mobile. The new version will allow you to trade CFD products (if available on your account). The Blackberry and Android versions will be updated by the end of this week.

US Oil: Please be aware that the USOil CFD contract expires on Friday (June 18th). Any open positions in USOil will be closed at expiration.

Let me know if you have any questions.

-Jason

So China finally removes the peg and lets the Yuan appreciate. Here's a USD/CNY chart showing that appreciation.

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/8481/usdcny.png

DailyFX has a weekly report on China which you can add to the weekly reading list:

China Weekly: 6/21/2010
Written by Jonathan Granby, DailyFX Research Team

Less than a week before a meeting of global leaders from the G20, China’s central bank has announced plans to loosen the yuan’s peg to the US dollar. This comes days after officials said that discussions about the yuan would not be on the agenda at the G20 meeting in Canada this week. The US has long pressured China to let its currency move more freely against the dollar, and China had been expected to encounter sharp criticism at the G20 for inflexibility on the issue. US Treasury Secretary Geithner reacted Sunday with cautious optimism and additional questions about how far and fast China will let the yuan appreciate. According to the PBoC “the recovery and upturn of the Chinese economy has become more solid with the enhanced economic stability”. Adding that “adjustments of the exchange rate must be carried out gradually to give companies time to adjust their structure and gradually absorb the impacts of yuan exchange rate fluctuations”. Underlining the gradual nature of any move, the PBoC early Monday set the central parity rate – the level marking the middle of the yuan’s trading band – unchanged from its value Friday.

Read more: DailyFX - China Weekly 06.21 http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...#ixzz0rVO1HPy4

DailyFX says a slowdown in volatility may lend to better range trading opportunities. Here's a table from the weekly Forex Strategy Outlook with the trading bias for each pair:

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-...0-06-21-03.gif

Volatility in general has been steadily declining. You can see in the chart below the spike in volatility during the Greek budget crisis:

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-...0-06-21-02.gif

Here's an analysis of EUR/USD from Thomas Long of the DailyFX Powercourse:

The series of higher highs and higher lows has been broken on the EUR/USD hourly chart as this pair has moved down through the previous low of 1.22414. However, there still is this little item called the FOMC meeting and their annoucement today at about 2:15PM Eastern to deal with first. I would not think that we will see alot of selling pressure before then but one never knows for sure what a market will do. This move down through support is bearish for this pair as the daily chart still shows a strong downtrend and now the intraday charts are moving down also. I would look for selling opportunities, but wait until after the FOMC announcement today to open any longer-term positions.

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/attac...eurusd-623.jpg

Keep in mind the FOMC rate decision comes out at 2:15pm EDT today!

A nice big picture view from Thomas Long for the USD (USD Index chart below) and where we may be heading next. Thomas always does a good job of simplifying things to get a basic overview of trend/range and support/resistance for a currency pair.

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-...G_49633251.jpg

This hourly chart of the US Dollar Index shows a market that has one more hurdle before completing the reversal from the downside back to the upside.
The daily chart continues to show a strong uptrend with this current pullback finding support and starting to reverse back to the upside. Confirmation of this reversal would be a move up through yesterday's high in the 86.50 area. But until that happens, we should not expect to see any decent moves by any of the USD based pairs in the direction of the trend. This would include any further move down by the EUR/USD.


Read more: DailyFX - US Dollar Index http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...#ixzz0rmU9VZZK

In other news, Kevin Rudd stepped down as Australian Prime Minister! Will be interesting to see what if any impact this has on the Australian Dollar. Any thoughts...??

FXCM Programming Services Update:

Quick update...we get a lot of questions from traders wanting to program strategies into an automated system or even creating custom applications. FXCM has a programming services team setup for this and they recently changed their pricing from an hourly charge to flat rates (which in my opinion will make it more affordable).

Strategy consulting and coding now costs $300 for a simple programming project and $600 for a complex programming project. Strategies can be coded for many different platforms, the most common being MT4 and now Strategy Trader.

Here's where you can find more details: http://www.fxcm.com/forex-programming-services.jsp

USDJPY SSI long positioning continues to increase with traders attempting to pick a bottom. Here's the latest SSI release from this morning:

http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/1760/usdjpyssi.png

The 0.8896 and 0.8809 levels are important support levels for these contrarian traders. See below the most recent Elliott Wave analysis from Jamie Saettele.

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-...1727799513.gif

Dont understand the dailyFX plus signals.
At 3.45pm the breakout2 showed 5 open lots for EurUsd - yes the market has gone against this call and 2 lots have been stopped but now the trade details show no open trades/lots for this pair/strategy (5.50pm).

Can you explain?

Yes, would be happy to help.

The strategy can close out the positions before the stop levels are reached. The decisions are all based on market conditions. Best thing to do is to review the Alerts section of the trading signals to check for any recent updates to the strategy.

I know this isn't always the easiest thing to do unless you're able to monitor the page throughout the day. We've been working on email alerts for the signals which should help you stay up to date about any changes more easily. There's also talk of automating the signals through the new Strategy Trader platform, but that is still in development and at least 2-3 months away if I had to guess.

Jason

Announcements for this week:

Strategy Trader:
Q&A Webinar scheduled for July 1st @ 2pm EDT (6pm GMT). Webinar can be accessed 5 minutes before the start time by clicking here .


DailyFX News Coverage:
Here's the schedule for this week's live trading webinars from DailyFX:

 

1. Tue (Jun 29th, 10:00 EST) – US Consumer Confidence (JUN) with David Song
2. Wed (Jun 30th, 19:50 EST) – Japanese Tankan Index (2Q) with Ilya Spivak
3. Thu (Jul 1st, 10:00 EST) – ISM Manufacturing (JUN) with David Rodriguez
4. Fri (Jul 2nd, 8:30 EST) – US Change in NFPs (JUN) with John Kicklighter

US July 4 Holiday Trading Hours:

For forex....The US July 4 holiday will not impact forex trading hours this weekend. Forex trading will close on Friday at 4:00pm EDT and open on Sunday at 5:15pm EDT. However, the holiday may impact overall trading volume and market volatility, especially considering Friday is NFP.

For CFD's...trading will be closed for the following CFD products on Monday July 5th during the following hours:
US30, SPX500, and NAS100 trading is closed from 11:30am until 6:00pm EDT. USOil and UKOil trading is closed from 1:15pm until 6:00pm EDT.

You will be able to modify stops and limits on CFD's during these periods.


Rollover
Today's rollover for CAD and HKD pairs is 5 times normal amounts. There will be no rollover for CAD and HKD pairs on Wednesday (June 30).

Check it out...DailyFX and Jamie Saettele topped the one-month FX Week forecast table http://www.fxweek.com/fx-week/foreca...cal-tops-table. Here's where you can find all of Jamie's technical analysis on DailyFX, which is based on elliott wave analysis: http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/elliott_wave/


Moving on to the markets in general, take a look at the US30 and SPX500 CFD contracts. (these are based on the Dow Futures and S&P 500 futures contracts). In particular, I would like for you to look at the 50 and 200 MA crossover. We're very near to seeing the 50 move below the 200 period simple moving average.

http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/8...ockindices.png

How could this be positive or give confidence to long positions in the equities markets. The 50 and 200 period SMA are commonly used to identify overall trend, and I have to wonder how many automated systems are built on following the trend based on the crossover, no matter how basic it is. The lines will probably cross over the next couple of days, and the markets are sitting right at a level that has been tested multiple times over the past two months.

This means you should also be wary of long positions in the EUR/JPY. Could the Friday NFP number be a catalyst for driving equities and thereby EUR/JPY lower?

Stock indices can be found on FXCM UK demo accounts (CFD's no available for US residents). Here's where you can register a demo with CFD's: http://www.fxcm.co.uk/demo-forex-usd.jsp

The USD weakness has really caught me by surprise. How's everyone else doing with their trades?

David Rodriguez mentioned rumors of SNB intervention in EUR/CHF earlier this morning, but haven't found any reports to substantiate this in the news.

EUR/USD Momentum2 and Breakout2 have recently generated long signals, but the general trend direction is still sideways according to the signal generator.

http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/9798/dfxsignals.png

Also interesting is the extreme USD/JPY long positioning at the moment.

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/1760/usdjpyssi.png

The Bank of Japan and Japanese government can't be thrilled with the JPY continuing to push lower. Watch for possible verbal intervention from Japanese finance ministers. And if you see any out of the ordinary moves, keep an eye on the DailyFX Real Time News feed for insight about what may be happening.

Thanks Jason for this informative thread. I have recently started playing around with FXCM station. I am still trying to figure out how to do things which I used to do in MT4. e.g. for any indicator, it was possible to specify which timeframe I want to see that indicator in. e.g. I use ZIGZAG to see high level swings only in daily timeframe, but when I switch to hourly timeframe, I do not want ZIGZAG to be on the screen ( so only visible in Daily). Is it possible to do that with FXCM station?

cheers

Thanks for reading!!

I see what you mean. The indicator will display when you change the time frame whereas MT4 allows you to select which timeframes it will display on. The FXCM station doesn't have the option to select which timeframes you want to view it on.

Here's my suggestion. Create two charts, one with the zigzag and the other without. You can then arrange the charts side by side, or have them full screen to tab between the charts.

Side by Side

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/7243/sidebyside.png

Full Screen with Tabs

I highlighted the tabs at the top for toggling between the daily chart with the indicator and the additional chart without.

http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/2334/fullscreenp.png

1. Can we live members get email alerts when the Trading Signals platform initiates a new trade?

Or twitter announcement or something other than a sound alert?

2. Is something going on with BT's MT4? I mean it is constantly showing OLD TICK...and it's SO slow I cannot even scroll back and forth on the chart.

Thanks!

The email alerts are something we've been working on for a while now. If you would have asked me 6 months ago, I would have said there is a very good chance it would have been out by now. But like many of the things we release, when going through testing we find problems that need to be corrected. I'll have to ask for an update on the progress of this.

There's also been talk of adding the signals directly to the new Strategy Trader platform.

Checked with tech support team and haven't had reports of technical issues on MT4 today. Try clearing all of the stored tick history files in MetaTrader first. To do this, navigate to C: > Program Files > FXCM MT4 Powered by BT > History (screenshot) . You will have an FXCM-Demo and an FXCM-Powered by BT folder in the history folder. In each one of those folders, delete any of the files ending with .hst . If you're still getting this when trading begins again after the weekend, send over an email to me ([email protected]) and I'll get you in touch with the tech support team so we can investigate further, but this may help.

BTW, I'll be out of the office until Tuesday, so won't be making any posts on the thread until then.

-Jason

Thanks, I'm sure that will work...appreciate your time!

Thanks Jason !! I did that for now.
How did you get dollar index in FXCM ( chart at the top of the page)?

cheers

The chart from the top of the page is from the FX Trek Intellichart (Comstock feed). There's a monthly fee for using FX Trek. A list of 3rd party charting is found on our website (http://www.fxcm.com/charting-options3.jsp) .

I personally use NetDania to view the USD Index because it's free and easy to access. Here's where to access: http://www.netdania.com/Products/liv...Chart.aspx?m=c . The NetDania version through DailyFX and FXCM.com do not have the USD Index; it has to be accessed directly through NetDania.com.

-Jason