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Fibonacci Paradise

  • #901
  • Jun 27, 2010 4:39am Jun 27, 2010 4:39am
I was already long on your original swing fib of earlier. I was holding my nerve as I was well offside but was watching to see if the fib would hold. In this instance it did as I thought it might. I could have taken 40 pips but I'm holding this position, I want to see this fib complete, it will do my faith in the fibs the world of good.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #902
  • Jun 28, 2010 8:37am Jun 28, 2010 8:37am
At 3:00 a.m. I began to understand this whole new way of fib fitting a little more than I did at first and I now understand why Skunny placed so much importance on the s/r penetration. Im currently in a trade and when it finished i'll post the results.
  • #903
  • Jun 28, 2010 9:18am Jun 28, 2010 9:18am
Quoting Checkz
At 3:00 a.m. I began to understand this whole new way of fib fitting a little more than I did at first and I now understand why Skunny placed so much importance on the s/r penetration. Im currently in a trade and when it finished i'll post the results.
Good show, I will be interested to see your findings.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #904
  • Jun 28, 2010 9:30am Jun 28, 2010 9:30am
Quoting Misterdaz
Good show, I will be interested to see your findings.

MD.
What are you doing surfing the forums? Shouldn't you be working?
  • #905
  • Jun 28, 2010 10:10am Jun 28, 2010 10:10am
Just keeping an eye on you blokes. I'm still long GY.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #906
  • Jun 28, 2010 10:30am Jun 28, 2010 10:30am
Quoting Misterdaz
Just keeping an eye on you blokes. I'm still long GY.

MD.
And you call me brave..........
  • #907
  • Jun 28, 2010 10:37am Jun 28, 2010 10:37am
My take on EU.
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  • #908
  • Jun 28, 2010 2:00pm Jun 28, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I was already long on your original swing fib of earlier. I was holding my nerve as I was well offside but was watching to see if the fib would hold. In this instance it did as I thought it might. I could have taken 40 pips but I'm holding this position, I want to see this fib complete, it will do my faith in the fibs the world of good.

MD.
One thing Skunnny said stuck with me.. something about even if he was right he would get out. The gy pull was a first move one hour rumble.. off of a (dubious but somehting i saw as) bottom ala 138.2. When i see things line up like that... there is no reason it "has" to bound onto target immediately especially end of week and no doubt some news was in vovled... perhaps not.. but you can get out with a small loss go short when it shows.. or track short and go back long or any combo.

Back in the day and I am sure it is the way firms all over the world we just had to brute force certain things to get a reasonable expection as to set risk.. hence when pulling the trigger... we ... well we were covered by following desk... but we knew say 65% of the time the thing worked.. and the loss was acceptable...

In this case you will find blindly the percentage is much higher. chuckle. I still get scared to this day... BUT only when i overload hence i set interim risk loads.. ie... i don;t care if i am right as rain i will not go down 40% on an account or 20% etc.. I will cut bait and look for a better entry or a new reason to get in... I do not look for reason that my first fib was wrong... that leads to fib account suicide... I know from experience.

Knowing how to fib and trading them are two different animals mate.

TK
  • #909
  • Jun 28, 2010 2:17pm Jun 28, 2010 2:17pm
This may help some chaps...

lets break down EU.

I am on a 4hr which is generally too large for most accounts to trade with any real profit margins..due to the potential of big swings.. ( unless you see the stars allign), but it doesnt hurt to track it.

So the black swing.. i don't concern myself with that at all in the start. picking up the market right now.. i see price action letting me know a 138 was hit so i work the red swing.

Now 4 hour is going to vary from broker to broker.. and I have found that doesnt matter since a to the tick hit doesnt mean we are done with long.. once broker could show open anopther could show closed and both would be right if the fibs were. One broker may just give the tip to take a short.

So this red swing is close and with a minimal amount of tweaking.. i find my red swing from the 61.8 method closed off. This is a practice thing. So now we work this blue swing.. I zoomed to 1hr because on 4hr it was not clear. Lo and behlod.. that blue swing exhausted it short by moving down 61.8 sr.. of interest after the tap of the 138.2 it bashed right into the 61.8 and turned... if you are of the camp of living a to the tick hit fib on this is a short signal... a break above is a long signal.

So now working purple... our first 61.8 which the purple was beholden to.. closed out..138.2.it retraced past the 61.8 but with these it is first come first serve. so now we have to...move to a new post hold on.
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  • #910
  • Jun 28, 2010 2:29pm Jun 28, 2010 2:29pm
take note of how the 61.8 was the 138.2 of the purple fib. Neat. So now we are currently here targetting 1.229 ish. give or take a tick or two. So that is how easy it is to trade this.. i just picked this up right now did about 5 minutes of back work( the typing and posting took longer and I have a target to trade to. It is no mistake that all lined up like that none at all. The market is not random.

So Thom? is it going there now? Lets dig in. here is a fib i just pull remeber if you are to track EVERY movement of price.. which is inane at best.. sigh... but this give me a short target and explains price in the now and it will breach that p[in on the way there... so if i want to ATTEMPT to shorten my risk into the black target i would set a stop above the blue fall apart and see if i could ride it to black target... may not work but it is a thought. The balck target will be hit regardless.

Hope that helps but lets say you were ad comfortable with this as I am.. we may have a hundred pip range.. off of blue into a 60 pip target off of black.. THE HORROR!!!! but it will be hit so you WILL NOT LOSE...it may retrace to hell and back.. but that is the thought process.

TK
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  • #911
  • Jun 28, 2010 2:35pm Jun 28, 2010 2:35pm
So moving into where to from here... well on a d1 time frame the starts are alligning for this to potentially happen. Before i get guff for a stoch.. i use it to test windspeed here and there.. for me... the fib in conjuntion with the stoch say if we go... we go very nicely. Stoch or no if it goes after that set up it is going...again it is just a wind speed for me.


TK
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  • #912
  • Jun 28, 2010 2:41pm Jun 28, 2010 2:41pm
Evening Thom. Your comments always appreciated. I had 3 winners off that fib, I just closed the last one which I have been hanging in on for a couple of days for 80 pips profit. That was s bit greedy but it felt good. I also took 2 losers on it I could have taken 30 pips on each but cut them perhaps too quicky for loses, they would have turned around too. All good food for thought.

I am trading live now, fear and greed have paid me a couple of visits. Harder when it's your own dough.

Just watching the Brazilians.
Keep smiling
  • #913
  • Jun 28, 2010 2:46pm Jun 28, 2010 2:46pm
Is anyone else cleaning up on GY? I hope so chaps.. it doesnt get much easier then that... In ny none the less...


TK
  • #914
  • Jun 28, 2010 2:48pm Jun 28, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Evening Thom. Your comments always appreciated. I had 3 winners off that fib, I just closed the last one which I have been hanging in on for a couple of days for 80 pips profit. That was s bit greedy but it felt good. I also took 2 losers on it I could have taken 30 pips on each but cut them perhaps too quicky for loses, they would have turned around too. All good food for thought.

I am trading live now, fear and greed have paid me a couple of visits. Harder when it's your own dough.

Just watching the Brazilians.
Yeah those plastic surgery loving, meat eating madmen are realy taking it home..I am watching as well. Good to hear on the trading. Hopefully you can quit you job in the years ahead or year chuckle.
  • #915
  • Jun 28, 2010 2:59pm Jun 28, 2010 2:59pm
Poking around i found some free money on uCHF if anyone can stand the speed or lack thereof on the Franc

TK
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  • #916
  • Jun 28, 2010 3:01pm Jun 28, 2010 3:01pm
One thing I've learned. Drawing these fibs is an art form and the sloppy data is open to interpretation. Many times I've seen 138's missed by 10, 15, 20 pips and yet it reverses. I think the data is the source of my difficulties.


Bartstop
  • #917
  • Jun 28, 2010 3:06pm Jun 28, 2010 3:06pm
G'day gold... mighty odd it turned where it did... it was not supposed to go any higher knew it,. and turned....if you trade gold this might be interesting. If not it should still tickle you to see thing that like. Sight for sore eyes.

TK
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  • #918
  • Jun 28, 2010 3:17pm Jun 28, 2010 3:17pm
Quoting bartstop
One thing I've learned. Drawing these fibs is an art form and the sloppy data is open to interpretation. Many times I've seen 138's missed by 10, 15, 20 pips and yet it reverses. I think the data is the source of my difficulties.


Bartstop
I argued with myself many times about data... and I have heard fomr other folks that fib... that if only you trade a centralized market the world is your oyster.. and that could be. I will give you mate that experience plays a part sometimes bottoms on certina pars are not the true srs.. yen crosses for example.. sometimes the move so fast to the downside they create slop and then retest in a calmer enviroment and find the proper non panic driven sr.

A pretty popular instrument is randall minis or a lot of gents trade e minis as well.. centralized data what not. I have found for myself that data is only an issue with yen pairs , but i trade GY almost exclusively so i have learned the quirks if you will.

On a bigger time frame.. be concious that this is forex data.. so on a 600 pip range 10 pips can be attributed to noise. on smaller tfs i looks for 2 pips or so.. on a mpntly.. well i would be confortable with 100 pips etc.. I am not anal and do not zoom into one minute to line things up i twek my chart if it looks close and if it is closed.. it is closed.

recently here i had a EU 4hr... very close.. and turns out it was closed.. but i zoomed it in to line it up and it looked open.. so yes i guess practice makes perfect. It still happens to me here and there though point being so err on the side of caution.

someone said this to me once and i think it is true though. A pro golfer can play well with shite sticks.. but a novice player will play shite with the best sticks in the world ..well perhaps a tad better. Not saying this to you , but in general... I have seen Skunny fibbers go from FX to centralized instruments.. that couldn't be steady in fx and the change didnt do much for them. could be different for you. I don't know.

TK
EDIT : I am not saying you are wrong at all mate thought to be sure we could still be open long.. we are just not going there now. I can only chart what i see.
  • #919
  • Jun 28, 2010 3:30pm Jun 28, 2010 3:30pm
Quoting ThomKnight
I argued with myself many times about data... and I have heard fomr other folks that fib... that if only you trade a centralized market the world is your oyster.. and that could be. I will give you mate that experience plays a part sometimes bottoms on certina pars are not the true srs.. yen crosses for example.. sometimes the move so fast to the downside they create slop and then retest in a calmer enviroment and find the proper non panic driven sr.

A pretty popular instrument is randall minis or a lot of gents trade e minis as well.. centralized...
No worries Thom.

I seem to remember someone (I think Skunny) saying that long wicks tend to be the most innacurate. Has that been your experience?


Bartstop
  • #920
  • Jun 28, 2010 3:36pm Jun 28, 2010 3:36pm
I think from now on, I'll start getting really cautious when price has gone more than 3/4 of the way between 0 and 138.
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