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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jun 26, 2012 6:45am Jun 28, 2010 5:43am | Edited Jun 26, 2012 6:45am
Welcome!

This thread has been setup for the more serious intraday trader and incorporates advanced technical analysis. All timeframes and styles of analysis are welcome by members for GU, EU and GJ.

I mainly use support/resistance, Volume and Market Profiling. I try and keep my charts clear as possible from indicators but may still use a few moving averages and maybe RSI on higher timeframes to outline divergence.

This thread has been setup for more advance traders but newbie’s are more than welcome to come along to learn. There is a 1 vouch criteria to post in this thread but if you don’t have this and really feel the need to post PM me.

I’m going to keep the introduction brief so welcome again and hopefully this thread can develop into something good.

Stocky
  • #2
  • Jun 28, 2010 5:46am Jun 28, 2010 5:46am
Weekly, Daily, 4hrly and market profile attached. These charts should give you an idea of the levels im looking at. Currently we are trading around 5040 - 5060 area. Price was always going to stop around here with 5040 being a untouched point of control zone from march 2010. We are currently in the bell distribution phase for the day and I would expect price to brak out of either the top or the bottom. Given we tried to break 5070 a few time through Asia and have been rejected again a few time through London trading we may head out the bottom of the bell curve and attempt a 38.2 or 50/5fib retrace of Fridays up move. NY open should help as there isn’t much data out today.

We have single prints situated at the bottom and top of Fridays profile. Fridays POC is at 4944 and a profile ledge at 4906....expect a bounce around there if we do break out the bottom of the bell curve given 5070 holds.

Stocky
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  • #3
  • Jun 28, 2010 6:36am Jun 28, 2010 6:36am
Hi Stocky, looking forward to reading your always excellent updates here.

My daily GBP/USD shows that price is backtesting the earlier broken yellow trend line, and the downsloping red one.
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  • #4
  • Edited Jun 29, 2010 6:52am Jun 28, 2010 7:04am | Edited Jun 29, 2010 6:52am
Monthly, Weekly, daily, 4hrly and MP chart attached.

Slightly longer term charts required to see overall picture for EU.

Last weekly candle has formed a doji just below strong weekly support 2430 after breaking through on the 14th MAy. Now either this resistance holds and we continue to head lower and test 1.18 again or we attempt to break back through 2430 and maybe complete a stronger retrace of the downmove since 11th April 09....38.2 would give us 2561.

Although the weekly looks like we are using 2430/40 to bounce lower the daily shows we have found support at 2190 and are attempting another break of resistance 2430. Next day or so should be important in confirming if we are to head up or lower from here.

Intraday we are making a series of HH's and HL on the 4 hrly since breaking out the upwards channel on 21st of June..this is visible on the 4hour. Providing we can hold above the 20ma we have a good chance of breaking 2430. 200MA on the 4hrly continue to provide strong resistance.

Market profile shows point of controls from the17th to the 21st of June have been at 2384, 2389 and 2390 respectively. This is providing tough resistance to pass at the moment also. Single prints to watch out for at the bottom of yesterdays profile if we break lower on todays profile. We are currently being slowed down by yesterdays point of control at 2327.

Stocky
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  • #5
  • Jun 28, 2010 7:12am Jun 28, 2010 7:12am
Hi Stocky,

Great thread here mate. Always like reading your chart and an excellent analysis.

Cheers

FWIW, from a fundamental point of view, I am expecting a downward revision to the UK GDP to be released on Wednesday.
  • #6
  • Jun 28, 2010 7:14am Jun 28, 2010 7:14am
Quoting Hell7
Hi Stocky, looking forward to reading your always excellent updates here.

My daily GBP/USD shows that price is backtesting the earlier broken yellow trend line, and the downsloping red one.
Hi Hell7,

Great to see you here and looking forward to your posts...I have us at the same ascending daily TL also...my chart shows us about 25 pips away from it now. We are right at the top of todays profile bell now..will be intresting to see if we get rejected again...may see a possible spike up from here with people stops going off that have been working this range. I will be looking for a sell around 1.5110 area.

Stocky
  • #7
  • Jun 28, 2010 7:18am Jun 28, 2010 7:18am
Quoting puks
Hi Stocky,

Great thread here mate. Always like reading your chart and an excellent analysis.

Cheers

FWIW, from a fundamental point of view, I am expecting a downward revision to the UK GDP to be released on Wednesday.
Hi Puk,

Nice to see you here mate...feel free to post your analysis and thoughts..

Stocky
  • #8
  • Jun 28, 2010 7:24am Jun 28, 2010 7:24am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Welcome! hopefully this thread can develop into something good.

Stocky
OK Stocky! I'm pleased you started this thread and I'm a definite subscriber and hopefully I may be able to add something useful.
Gone to a better place
  • #9
  • Jun 28, 2010 7:27am Jun 28, 2010 7:27am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi Hell7,

I will be looking for a sell around 1.5110 area.

Stocky
Where would you look to TP or cover your stop in that case? I am looking at 1.5130ish area for a short.

It was a previous major S and now R.
  • #10
  • Jun 28, 2010 7:41am Jun 28, 2010 7:41am
Quoting puks
Where would you look to TP or cover your stop in that case? I am looking at 1.5130ish area for a short.

It was a previous major S and now R.
Remember this is a daily TL we are approaching...price is not going to turn on the back of a dime but you got to assess the momentum we are approaching it with...We could easily head back straight from 1.51 with it being a psychological level and so close to the TL but I expect us to form a distribution up here somewhere before heading lower..... I have next resistance at 5147 so a stop above that would be wise..every time we have approach this TL there has been a few hundred pip bounce...We may even perform a fib retracement of the entire rise since 25th may...Therefore TP target will have to be assessed on route...I would think about setting 2 positions...Take profit on the first position around 4950 and then let the other run with a trailing stop to potentially 4680...50%fib region of the rise

Stocky
  • #11
  • Jun 28, 2010 7:57am Jun 28, 2010 7:57am
few stops going of there...this next 4 hour close will be important...i wouldnt jump in too early.

Stocky
  • #12
  • Jun 28, 2010 5:29pm Jun 28, 2010 5:29pm
I am subscribed now. I will post my analysis here, may start trading gj so this should be an adventure!
  • #13
  • Jun 28, 2010 7:12pm Jun 28, 2010 7:12pm
Nice! Subscribed as well.
  • #14
  • Jun 28, 2010 10:38pm Jun 28, 2010 10:38pm
Note that Geppy took a dive, and so returned to UJ chart posted previously. Ascending magenta TL now broken, and wonder if price will now make way to the 76.4 FE.

Earnings season for some big names, too, and EU bank stress tests and Spanish ire at removal of liquidity support may all weigh heavy this week.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #15
  • Jun 29, 2010 1:20am Jun 29, 2010 1:20am
welcome 45condor, fudomyo, and calderone.....please to see you have suscribed...looking forward to exchanging thoughts and analysis with
everyone...

Stocky
  • #16
  • Jun 29, 2010 1:47am Jun 29, 2010 1:47am
Quoting Stocky Monk
[color=black][font=Verdana]Weekly, Daily, 4hrly and market profile attached. These charts should give you an idea of the levels im looking at. Currently we are trading around 5040 - 5060 area. Price was always going to stop around here with 5040 being a untouched point of control zone from march 2010. We are currently in the bell distribution phase for the day and I would expect price to brak out of either the top or the bottom. Given we tried to break 5070 a few time through Asia and have been rejected again a few time through London trading we...
As per yesterdays GU analysis we approached the weekly/daily ascending TL around 4pm GMT yesterday....as expected we spent most of NY and Asia around there forming a distribution. The TL seems to have done its job and held any 4hourly closes above it....The 15 min chart shows a HnS pattern with the neck line at today’s daily pivot. There has been a nice 60 pip selloff soon as we traded below the daily piv. Looks promising for a strong retrace from here but the 4hourly is yet to make LH so I would be cautious.

9.25GMT 5min candle generated on very high vol which shows buyers are still strong and most likely wanting to break 5120 area.

Stocky
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  • #17
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:13am Jun 29, 2010 2:13am
I expect us to battle around here for a while...at least until the next 4hr close....this highlight support is key at the moment...We need to break lower if a strong down move is to develop of the daily tl. Yesterdays lower distribution is slowing any down move at the moment but at the same time I would expect buyers coming in at 5012.

Stocky
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  • #18
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:45am Jun 29, 2010 2:45am
Well I said I would give my input and I didn't say it would all be positive so here goes. I'm not sure how you would describe a rising trend line as daily or weekly for this pair. I certainly don't see a weekly rising trendline for cable. Maybe a daily (but only from about the 8th of this month so in my book that hardly qualifies) and in any case it doesn't bear any resemblance to yours. So I'm missing something here, obviously.

I am looking at price action on the daily to forecast this as the top but in spite of the foregoing I tend to agree with you. The monthly s/r level of 1.5 in a downtrend is what we should focussing on here and in the context of monthly prices a 130 pip overshoot is not very much. We are currently flying down to re-test that level and I wouldn't be surprised if it shoots through, given that we have an equities sell off at the moment (China down >3% yesterday) as there is some correlation with the Dow.
Gone to a better place
  • #19
  • Jun 29, 2010 2:58am Jun 29, 2010 2:58am
Quoting Stocky Monk
I expect us to battle around here for a while...at least until the next 4hr close....this highlight support is key at the moment...We need to break lower if a strong down move is to develop of the daily tl. Yesterdays lower distribution is slowing any down move at the moment but at the same time I would expect buyers coming in at 5012.

Stocky
Hello Stocky!
I've been following your analysis from DT's thread!
It's great that you've began your own thread!! Thank you for doing so!

Going to my point,
On 30min chart, do you see a possible H&S forming?
I would love to see this right shoulder to rise up to 1.507ish area to short there.
What does your profiling method tell you about this area?

Again thank you for starting your own thread!!
  • #20
  • Jun 29, 2010 3:02am Jun 29, 2010 3:02am
Quoting smikester
Well I said I would give my input and I didn't say it would all be positive so here goes. I'm not sure how you would describe a rising trend line as daily or weekly for this pair. I certainly don't see a weekly rising trendline for cable. Maybe a daily (but only from about the 8th of this month so in my book that hardly qualifies) and in any case it doesn't bear any resemblance to yours. So I'm missing something here, obviously.

I am looking at price action on the daily to forecast this as the top but in spite of the foregoing I tend to agree...
Hi Smikester,

The weekly/ daily rising TL im referring to is visible in the chart im referring to. I classify it as a weekly or daily depending on what timeframe i need to work of in order to get at least 2 points to establish its gradient....The further back the TL goes and the more points connected strengthens its relevance.

hourly pibar formed at 5012.

Stocky
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