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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #17,141
  • Jun 27, 2010 1:09pm Jun 27, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting piccolo
Was away all week but couldn't let this post slide.

On one side we have an isolated castle with high speed internet where everybody would have a room. We would have breakfast meetings at the breakfast table and then on we go to the trading hall. If we could be profitable, we wouldn't have to grow our own food, lol. As appealing as it sounds, this is nuts and will make everybody go insane over time. The end result would most likely be creation of a bank or some sort of crazy, natural, self-sufficient community.

On the other hand, given the international...
I second that. Actually I thought almost the same when I first saw fti's post. Probably skype video chat would do well enough as a starter. Worth considering, imo.

England was just kicked out of the World cup by Germany (there were even English fans wearing World War 2 uniforms, LOL) and now is time for the other major clash between Mexico and Argentina. It's Sunday chaps, get off the forum and the PCs, life is great out there

Inserted Video
  • #17,142
  • Jun 27, 2010 1:12pm Jun 27, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting fti
OMG, you are trading your bias and against the trend.
... may want a "quick gift"
Attached Image
  • #17,143
  • Jun 27, 2010 1:20pm Jun 27, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting piccolo
Was away all week but couldn't let this post slide. :

On the other hand, given the international community we are, we could have some sort of virtual home base. But then it should be personal. Not Trader777 joined/left but each member knows each other well. Commitment & trust level has to be very very high. Add video and audio to it and trading naked goes out the window, lol. The end result most likely would be a high security video/audio chat room (so we can talk, not type).

I believe that a simple dinner is more valuable than a month of...
Ok OK , dinner .
Who kills the pig?
And who skins the cat alive?

Perhaps, perhaps not.
Inserted Video


regards
  • #17,144
  • Edited Jun 28, 2010 6:31am Jun 27, 2010 1:22pm | Edited Jun 28, 2010 6:31am
Quoting incrediblefx
I'm not a mind reader.
But have you forgotten Sun Tze AOW? A deception game.
Dealer likes to create deception and let traders jumping in when they see a breakout.
Jmho, range sweeps or false breakouts preceding the opposite impulse can be anticipated, another term is a "wash and rinse by Larry Pesavento" where price will spike and take out the preceding support/resistance level before continuing but they are a better signal in hindsight once completed, what you attempted Friday was more of jumping in front of a train, trying to cherry pick a top, imo.

Price manipulation is tough in the heat of battle, during prime hours, more often seen in twilight and in close range.

Regards,

Fana, easy bro!
  • #17,145
  • Jun 27, 2010 3:17pm Jun 27, 2010 3:17pm
"line is not a wall"
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  • #17,146
  • Jun 27, 2010 3:22pm Jun 27, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting auxesis
Some weekend reading,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-policies.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...tal-rules.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-deficits.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...line-baum.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65P0VP20100626...
some good posts.
  • #17,147
  • Jun 27, 2010 3:51pm Jun 27, 2010 3:51pm
Gro, nice reminder "line is not a wall"

Would the following chart be the proper way to scale into a trade? Criticism welcomed.
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  • #17,148
  • Edited 5:00pm Jun 27, 2010 4:14pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting Zoran
I've just finished reading Romans. fti, do you eat pork?
Oh yes in Acts we watch Paul, formerly a violent persecutor of Jewish Christians now transformed by holy spirit the former Pharisee is a faithful servent of God.
By the time he wrote Romans Paul completed 2 long preaching tours and was well along the third.
He had written 5 other inspired letters.

In Romans 1:1 - 2:29 Gods impartiality towards man and it is whats in your heart that counts.

Romans 3:1-4: 25 Brings out all sin and no one is righteous in gods sight as the mosaic law brought this out. However, through Gods undesereved kindness and release by ransom by faith all are declared rightous.
An example being Abraham not counted rightous by works but (by faith 4:11.)

Romans 5:1- 6:23
Through one man sin entered the world and sin brought death and death spread to all men because they had all sinned.
( sin meaning missing the mark of perfection)
The wages sin pays is death but the gift that God gives is everlasting life through Christ Jesus our Lord.

We all can relate to the struggle with sin. as Paul nails it on the head at Romans 7:19,20

For the good that I wish I do not do, but the bad I do not wish is what I practice. Thus the one working it out is no longer I,but the sinful inherited tendencys dwelling in me.

What can save miserable man ? His spirit.
As we read his word we begin to see things through our creators eyes and gain his spirit, helping all to become a better person especially if were specific in prayer on a matter thats in harmony with his will.
  • #17,149
  • Jun 27, 2010 4:25pm Jun 27, 2010 4:25pm
Quoting tubguy
Gro, nice reminder "line is not a wall"

Would the following chart be the proper way to scale into a trade? Criticism welcomed.
You do not "cover your back"? respektive,you never know how long takes the trend.
"scale" determined by the market and your money management.
  • #17,150
  • Jun 27, 2010 4:36pm Jun 27, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting piccolo
Was away all week but couldn't let this post slide.

On one side we have an isolated castle with high speed internet where everybody would have a room. We would have breakfast meetings at the breakfast table and then on we go to the trading hall. If we could be profitable, we wouldn't have to grow our own food, lol. As appealing as it sounds, this is nuts and will make everybody go insane over time. The end result would most likely be creation of a bank or some sort of crazy, natural, self-sufficient community.

On the other hand, given the international...
I was thinking about the post myself.
Logistics actually are very easy to implement, Fiber CATV satellite with point to point fiber loops.
Bigger problem is non-profit.
I apologize but I have my biases, and trying to do a deal with a counterparty on encryption/co-locating data with a non-profit organization would be a first, bias toward's getting laughed at.

Although nothing of any value is born without a dream

Just my 2c.
Regards and good trading.
  • #17,151
  • Jun 27, 2010 4:46pm Jun 27, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting tubguy
Gro, nice reminder "line is not a wall"

Would the following chart be the proper way to scale into a trade? Criticism welcomed.


Just my opinion. Enter or add on pullbacks as noted below:
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You need to be comfortable with timing and degree of pullback for your entry. Something to study and depends on the currencies you trade.

And, I agree that line is not a wall. PA is the wall, the floor, the ceiling, the beat...everything.
  • #17,152
  • Jun 27, 2010 5:10pm Jun 27, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting Gro
You do not "cover your back"? respektive,you never know how long takes the trend.
"scale" determined by the market and your money management.
Thanks for your comments Gro. I'm not sure I understand what you mean by "cover your back"?
If referring to the date of the chart. It's a simulator that uses actual tick data
from 2001 to present. No sense giving my money away until I have a firm grasp on the Fti style.
  • #17,153
  • Jun 27, 2010 5:16pm Jun 27, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting GEfx
Just my opinion. Enter or add on pullbacks as noted below:
Attachment

You need to be comfortable with timing and degree of pullback for your entry. Something to study and depends on the currencies you trade.

And, I agree that line is not a wall. PA is the wall, the floor, the ceiling, the beat...everything.
GEfx,
Thanks for the chart markup, it's amazing how obvious some things are when pointed out. Definitely something I should have been aware of.
  • #17,154
  • Jun 27, 2010 5:29pm Jun 27, 2010 5:29pm
Quoting tubguy
Thanks for your comments Gro. I'm not sure I understand what you mean by "cover your back"?
If referring to the date of the chart. It's a simulator that uses actual tick data
from 2001 to present. No sense giving my money away until I have a firm grasp on the Fti style.

I think what Gro is saying is that you don't take profits. It's easy in hindsight to mark charts as price has laid out the road map, but when traveling along in real time you can't see the turns ahead, so you take some profits along the way to ensure profitability because you don't know how far it will go, these profits are part of your MM for the trade session.

From point "a" to point "b" price doesn't normally travel a straight line, so add when it pulls back and take some off when it extends, that back and worth is the dance.

regards
  • #17,155
  • Jun 27, 2010 5:34pm Jun 27, 2010 5:34pm
Quoting auxesis
I think what Gro is saying is that you don't take profits. It's easy in hindsight to mark charts as price has laid out the road map, but when traveling along in real time you can't see the turns ahead, so you take some profits along the way to ensure profitability because you don't know how far it will go, these profits are part of your MM for the trade session.

From point "a" to point "b" price doesn't normally travel a straight line, so add when it pulls back and take some off when it extends, that back and worth is the dance.

regards
Ahhhh! Thanks for the clarification Auxesis.
  • #17,156
  • Jun 27, 2010 5:41pm Jun 27, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting tubguy
GEfx,
Thanks for the chart markup, it's amazing how obvious some things are when pointed out. Definitely something I should have been aware of.
It's important to study charts in detail. Back testing is great, but you also need to see it develop in real time. Back testing helps you see the importance of candle formations, etc, but real time work helps you see how each candle forms and its relation to the last/next candle, etc. Market pulses tend to follow basic patterns, so get familiar with them. This knowledge will help you better understand when to enter/add, and when to take profits. Nothing is a sure bet, except that the next leg up/down will follow a basic pattern of pulses and pull backs (and candles tend to do the same thing, too).
  • #17,157
  • Edited 6:14pm Jun 27, 2010 6:00pm | Edited 6:14pm
Quoting Gro
"line is not a wall"
Ya, let me sit back , and watch the lines kill some of you.
Yes, thats what I will do.
I can see the trend that is developing in your minds.
Well old dog, old tricks.
What a compliment , some of you bring to my presentation.
I guess much people like spitting into others face.

Rigidity seems to be human nature.
Ok Pay for it, then.
You like spit in my face.
Come, come in the markets and show me you ability to draw straight lines. Following the line down , will be your book. Come show me.
I will wait for you lot in the markets.
  • #17,158
  • Jun 27, 2010 6:26pm Jun 27, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting GEfx
It's important to study charts in detail. Back testing is great, but you also need to see it develop in real time. Back testing helps you see the importance of candle formations, etc, but real time work helps you see how each candle forms and its relation to the last/next candle, etc. Market pulses tend to follow basic patterns, so get familiar with them. This knowledge will help you better understand when to enter/add, and when to take profits. Nothing is a sure bet, except that the next leg up/down will follow a basic pattern of pulses and pull...
GEfx,

The software I am using plays the historical tick data one tick at a time. so the candles form just as they did the moment they were formed in the past.
The trades that are placed are as the candles and formations occur. Just as in a live market. I use it to practice on the weekends or if somewhere I have no internet. I have traded the daily charts with profitable results,but
have a desire to be able to trade any time frame or market. So the learning continues. Now it's the 5min with the hour to guide.
I really appreciate your comments and agree completely. There's no substitute for chart time.

Thanks once again
Mike
  • #17,159
  • Jun 27, 2010 6:41pm Jun 27, 2010 6:41pm
just my thoughts about the G20 meeting.
Seems the fed made big mistakes, but at least there's checks.
The euro, making bigger mistakes.and there's no one to check.
Lets see how, they will bleed her books.
Only pityful thing , is that the people are the ones, get to pay.

Anyway thats just bias. The dance will tell.
  • #17,160
  • Jun 27, 2010 6:41pm Jun 27, 2010 6:41pm
Quoting fti
Ya, let me sit back , and watch the lines kill some of you.
Yes, thats what I will do.
I can see the trend that is developing in your minds.
Well old dog, old tricks.
What a compliment , some of you bring to my presentation.
I guess much people like spitting into others face.

Rigidity seems to be human nature.
Ok Pay for it, then.
You like spit in my face.
Come, come in the markets and show me you ability to draw straight lines. Following the line down , will be your book. Come show me.
I will wait for you lot in the markets.
Fti,

I sincerely hope that the first chart I posted was not what offended you.
The lines are a product of James16 teachings, which was the first profitable
trading that I experienced.

If I have offended you, please accept my apologies.

Good Trading
Mike
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