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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #17,121
  • Edited 7:51am Jun 27, 2010 7:31am | Edited 7:51am
Quoting pete.alfa


Dear Fti

We are just normal traders don't have much experience & vision to create such a none profit(infact charity) international traders club as in your dream. In this club one purpose is to do charity(any charity you can think of). It's only you can make it happens. It's win win & WIN.
1st. WIN - we can have our own trader club for social & entertainment and aslo exchange ideas to improve trading skill for experince traders.
2nd. WIN - we do charity to make the world better even though there are so many charity organizations...
Its all what you make it.

This is your trading community that improves your trading skills also comes complete with social entertainment .
As far as the beach house, thats were you go when you want to clear your mind from this place.

Your charity starts at home, your neighbors and out to the rest of the world.
btw, be careful with your charity, during disaster relief ive seen many of well intended national organizations donations in huge piles to streetlights sitting in the elements getting ruined.

I see you already identified some of those helping guide, teach so new and old students can understand.
  • #17,122
  • Jun 27, 2010 7:35am Jun 27, 2010 7:35am
some brief afternoon reading and maybe a movie.
http://neithercorp.us/npress/?p=579

raining oil or hoax ?

Inserted Video


http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/874.html
  • #17,123
  • Jun 27, 2010 8:16am Jun 27, 2010 8:16am
Incredible,Fana,Serpent

Thank you for your comments. The retouched charts are especially helpful.
Will post another later.
  • #17,124
  • Jun 27, 2010 8:32am Jun 27, 2010 8:32am
Quoting tubguy
Here is a screen shot of my attempt at this style of trading. This was done on Forex Tester so no money involved, but would appreciate any comments or thoughts. Look like I'm on the right track?
I sold into the short down trend until it reversed and then rescued for a small profit on the pullback. So I think. LOL
IMHO.

Just added a few lines, if for not other reason than to show the trend. You do not need to be retrospective about this view of the market, but it is for realtime feel of what is going on.

In this case, the market is moving up and the small pullback is the formation of a bull flag. The up line tells you nothing more than the market is headed up (so I would be a buyer). When the up line is breached, the PA is telling you that the market is not doing that any more, so it is best to sit for a while until the PA tells you something else. When the small down line is breached, the PA is telling you that the down trend (bull flag)may be over and you are back to being a buyer.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screen_00006.jpg Size: 103 KB


Remember, the charts are your boss, not your brain, which will tell you lies. Listen to the charts (learn to read them better) and let PA show you the way.
  • #17,125
  • Jun 27, 2010 8:43am Jun 27, 2010 8:43am
Quoting GEfx
IMHO.

Just added a few lines, if for not other reason than to show the trend. You do not need to be retrospective about this view of the market, but it is for realtime feel of what is going on.

In this case, the market is moving up and the small pullback is the formation of a bull flag. The up line tells you nothing more than the market is headed up (so I would be a buyer). When the up line is breached, the PA is telling you that the market is not doing that any more, so it is best to sit for a while until the PA tells you something else....
GEfx,

if you were in his position sending multiple attacks during retracement. Finally you realised you attacked the retracement, what would you do?
1) Would you go opposite and be the buyer (short and long position together)?
2) Or just wait for sideline to clear your doubt that you're actually wrong?
  • #17,126
  • Jun 27, 2010 8:50am Jun 27, 2010 8:50am
Quoting incrediblefx
GEfx,

if you were in his position sending multiple attacks during retracement. Finally you realised you attacked the retracement, what would you do?
1) Would you go opposite and be the buyer (short and long position together)?
2) Or just wait for sideline to clear your doubt that you're actually wrong?
Again, imho.

If I discover that I am wrong, I kill all trades quickly. If I am uncertain at that point, I wait. If I gain a clear picture of what is going on, I will go with that new decision. In the picture provided, it is clear that you are retracing, so not too difficult to make the wait decision for me. However, if I had placed buy trades in where he placed sells, and the retracement went deeper, you might rescue in that situation.

Keep one additional thought in mind here, that this is a 5M chart and it is a good idea to pull back to a 1H chart for better picture of what is happening.
  • #17,127
  • Edited Jun 28, 2010 6:31am Jun 27, 2010 9:09am | Edited Jun 28, 2010 6:31am
Quoting incrediblefx
GEfx,

if you were in his position sending multiple attacks during retracement. Finally you realised you attacked the retracement, what would you do?
1) Would you go opposite and be the buyer (short and long position together)?
2) Or just wait for sideline to clear your doubt that you're actually wrong?
Why try to rescue a bad position if your headed in the wrong direction? Why carry attacks in the red....Your not managing you average position?

Obviously the pic is from a Vhands or similar demo program (Jan 25th)? Problem here is we have no higher time frame directional bias to fall back on, we have just whats showing on the screen, was the daily in a down trend? If so, then yo could build a case for rescue ---- but when caught on the wrong side of a move, drop the higher skews.

What time frame you trading? there's lots of time between added positions with lots of PA in between, looks like your trading hourly charts off a 5.

Listen to the charts, move down was very flat in comparison to the up thrust, as the retrace started to flatten and arc up, should give clues.

Keep working at it, chart time's the best teacher, but sooner or later you will need to add emotional aspects into your learning as the real lessons will begin then.

regards,
  • #17,128
  • Edited 9:12am Jun 27, 2010 9:10am | Edited 9:12am
Quoting GEfx
Again, imho.

If I discover that I am wrong, I kill all trades quickly. If I am uncertain at that point, I wait. If I gain a clear picture of what is going on, I will go with that new decision. In the picture provided, it is clear that you are retracing, so not too difficult to make the wait decision for me. However, if I had placed buy trades in where he placed sells, and the retracement went deeper, you might rescue in that situation.

Keep one additional thought in mind here, that this is a 5M chart and it is a good idea to pull back...
GEFX,

actually this chart is similar to what happened with my trade yesterday.
I sent in scout and I thought the dealers are just shooting the ducks around that level. My short briefly in the money but suddenly it went up really fast.
(I didn't know whether I should close and reverse my trade but I waited for more development).
So when the price went up broke briefly the immediate resistance I sent my rescue. My rescue was in and out of money for the next 2 hours. I didn't have much time to babysit and I cut my rescue and left with the scout.

The question here is:
- When I suddenly realise I go against the impulse move, shall I reverse immediately or my current strategy of waiting is acceptable?
- at that time of scout entry the 1H chart was on the downtrend and daily chart is definitely downtrend.

(sorry the picture shall be scout -1 and rescue -3)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #17,129
  • Jun 27, 2010 9:22am Jun 27, 2010 9:22am
Quoting incrediblefx
GEFX,

actually this chart is similar to what happened with my trade yesterday.
I sent in scout and I thought the dealers are just shooting the ducks around that level.
You a mind reader?
  • #17,130
  • Jun 27, 2010 9:32am Jun 27, 2010 9:32am
Quoting incrediblefx
GEFX,

actually this chart is similar to what happened with my trade yesterday.
I sent in scout and I thought the dealers are just shooting the ducks around that level. My short briefly in the money but suddenly it went up really fast.
(I didn't know whether I should close and reverse my trade but I waited for more development).
So when the price went up broke briefly the immediate resistance I sent my rescue. My rescue was in and out of money for the next 2 hours. I didn't have much time to babysit and I cut my rescue and left with the scout....
You might want to take another look at the 1H chart on Friday for trend analysis. Here is a quick look at your chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 21 KB

You are in a parabolic move up when you took a short position. IMHO, once you went short, and the market pushed above the resistance that formed, you should kill your short (never rescue a position against the trend you are trading).

I am confused as to the decision to short in the first place. Don't think or anticipate, follow the PA and read the chart.
  • #17,131
  • Jun 27, 2010 9:53am Jun 27, 2010 9:53am
Quoting GEfx
I am confused as to the decision to short in the first place. Don't think or anticipate, follow the PA and read the chart.
I would have killed my short in my usual trading (I haven't gone to the discussion where I should kill my scout yet).
I'm still reading this thread and this is my 2nd trade. I'm learning by doing.

thanks for feedback.
  • #17,132
  • Jun 27, 2010 9:54am Jun 27, 2010 9:54am
Quoting auxesis
You a mind reader?
I'm not a mind reader.
But have you forgotten Sun Tze AOW? A deception game.
Dealer likes to create deception and let traders jumping in when they see a breakout.
  • #17,133
  • Jun 27, 2010 10:00am Jun 27, 2010 10:00am
Gefx,
Thanks for your comments as well. Still getting in touch with the 5min charts.

I am enjoying the discussion following very much. Interesting to hear how others see the charts.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #17,134
  • Jun 27, 2010 11:34am Jun 27, 2010 11:34am
Quoting incrediblefx
I'm not a mind reader.
But have you forgotten Sun Tze AOW? A deception game.
Dealer likes to create deception and let traders jumping in when they see a breakout.
Incrediblefx. Stop please and think. I am sorry, but you should take a small tour throw this whole thread first. You write about your "first trade"... And another things... You post here your own opinions and theories. You argue with seniors like Auxesis and ask him if he knows art of war... So you can challenge even Fti... Please re-value where you really stands because argue from your possition with such people is unsuitable. You write that you have problems with MM after 10years trading stocks...and from your posts, even me, the begginer, can see dyscrepancies. Sorry, but you should read the thread first. There are more people here and you can lead them bad way. Is it what you want? I am sure not... Regards
  • #17,135
  • Edited 12:10pm Jun 27, 2010 11:50am | Edited 12:10pm
Quoting fti
Just thinking Aloud, Nothing Solid.
This is Gonna be a BIG can of worms.

This is becoming a trading community?
A community should have a base home?

What do you think if i was to start an international Club?
Mission to train and nurture Traders on trading Skills.

Should I be thinking of a Non profit Organisation?
How Large should this club be?
What would be a Good and easy to sustain Structure?
What sorts of criteria, should be set to filter candidates for one on one training?

Was thinking about a beach house, sailing. floating...
Was away all week but couldn't let this post slide.

On one side we have an isolated castle with high speed internet where everybody would have a room. We would have breakfast meetings at the breakfast table and then on we go to the trading hall. If we could be profitable, we wouldn't have to grow our own food, lol. As appealing as it sounds, this is nuts and will make everybody go insane over time. The end result would most likely be creation of a bank or some sort of crazy, natural, self-sufficient community.

On the other hand, given the international community we are, we could have some sort of virtual home base. But then it should be personal. Not Trader777 joined/left but each member knows each other well. Commitment & trust level has to be very very high. Add video and audio to it and trading naked goes out the window, lol. The end result most likely would be a high security video/audio chat room (so we can talk, not type).

Anyway, I don't see what fti would gain in any of these two scenarios, while the rest of us would benefit tremendously.

I believe that a simple dinner is more valuable than a month of forum discussions.

One day of hand holding can be more valuable than a year of reading and practicing.
  • #17,136
  • Jun 27, 2010 11:52am Jun 27, 2010 11:52am
Quoting Fana
Incrediblefx. Stop please and think. I am sorry, but you should take a small tour throw this whole thread first. You write about your "first trade"... And another things... You post here your own opinions and theories. You argue with seniors like Auxesis and ask him if he knows art of war... So you can challenge even Fti... Please re-value where you really stands because argue from your possition with such people is unsuitable. You write that you have problems with MM after 10years trading stocks...and from your posts, even me, the begginer, can...
Fana,

I'm not sure why you're agitated with my reply.
Have I offended you in any way? I do not know who is senior nor junior and do I care their rank? But I know for sure I have no intention to offend anybody.

I know, some people are just uncomfortable with new comers who express their idea. My idea of sitting ducks or probably a false breakout is from this forum. Can't I express it? maybe I've made my misinterpretation.

You can keep shooting me with your ego as a more senior person in this forum. I'm open to accept criticism but not based on rank.
  • #17,137
  • Jun 27, 2010 12:03pm Jun 27, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting Fana
Incrediblefx. Stop please and think. I am sorry, but you should take a small tour throw this whole thread first. You write about your "first trade"... And another things... You post here your own opinions and theories. You argue with seniors like Auxesis and ask him if he knows art of war... So you can challenge even Fti... Please re-value where you really stands because argue from your possition with such people is unsuitable. You write that you have problems with MM after 10years trading stocks...and from your posts, even me, the begginer, can...
Fana, I think you overreacted with that post. Forex is truely a game of deception. You can easily prove it to yourself by just checking the left side of a chart no matter the currency pair. I'm sure that you're gonna see a majority of fake breakouts and a minority of real breakouts.
  • #17,138
  • Jun 27, 2010 12:08pm Jun 27, 2010 12:08pm
.
Attached Image
  • #17,139
  • Jun 27, 2010 12:43pm Jun 27, 2010 12:43pm
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi Gro,

Me myself have done part of it that's only my ability...
Hi pete.alfa

"one man gave money to the poor man, he thought that the man is hungry but he bought drugs instead of food.He enjoyed the drug and died."killing or help?!?"
Help is nice, if know where the story of "cocoon".

Regards
  • #17,140
  • Jun 27, 2010 1:04pm Jun 27, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting incrediblefx
GEFX,

actually this chart is similar to what happened with my trade yesterday.
I sent in scout and I thought the dealers are just shooting the ducks around that level. My short briefly in the money but suddenly it went up really fast.
(I didn't know whether I should close and reverse my trade but I waited for more development).
So when the price went up broke briefly the immediate resistance I sent my rescue. My rescue was in and out of money for the next 2 hours. I didn't have much time to babysit and I cut my rescue and left with the scout.

The...
OMG, you are trading your bias and against the trend.
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